Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[phoenixw2] 24/10/2016 16:04

If you're a day-trader then who knows, but being LTBH the CY of c12.7%, against the background of the quality of the business, makes it's own case.

[chester] 24/10/2016 10:04

I'm still long here but we are up against long term resistance.

[phoenixw2] 19/10/2016 15:56

It appears ['the'] Neil Woodford disagrees with you QP. The latest RNS has just come through this pm and he's now 200k longer, 15.05% long.

Best of luck betting against him.

[quepassa] 13/10/2016 10:45

Time to sell Lancashire,and put proceeds into ASHM,better dividend also at over 6%.If GARYCOOK is ramping Lancashire,then definetly time to sell.



if we have different views on one stock , they should remain on that bulletin board

[garycook] 13/10/2016 06:59

jrp,Looks good to me.It should be between 80-95 cents,because no special was declared in March 2016,if you noted.

[jrphoenixw2] 12/10/2016 09:40

Morning Gary,
You're right, damn, I was using flawed historic data there. I'll try that again...

2015
Thu 5-Nov Q3 results released pre-open [c7am] A Special Div of US$0.95
Thu 26-Nov Ex-div
Fri 27-Nov Record date [FX rate set at noon London-time]
Fri 18-Dec Pay-date

2016
Thu 3-Nov Q3 results
[and if the 2015 pattern repeats this year, that suggests >]
Thu 24-Nov Ex-div
Fri 25-Nov Record date [FX rate set at noon London-time]
Fri 16-Dec Pay-date

E+EO, but unless they alter the div/event scheduling the above will serve as my working estimate for now.

[garycook] 12/10/2016 04:58

JRP,Correct 3Q results Nov 3.The Special last year was declared XD 26/11,and paid on 18/12

[jrphoenixw2] 11/10/2016 12:24

The weakness in Sterling should be doing wonders for the upcoming div [at least in terms of the Sterling converted value of foreign currency profits etc].

3Q results are due on 3rd November [7am]. That's the only concrete date I can find re: the div. Looking at the timeline of previous divs suggests to me the following [this is estimated/E+EO].

Ex-date Thursday 10-Nov
Record-date Fri 11-Nov
Pay-date Wed 7-Dec

[jrphoenixw2] 21/9/2016 09:43

Been away for a couple of weeks and offline. Catching up on things now, and per the comment above [@chester], the 3 month chart is looking good. Post BREXIT volatility the Px has been building nicely.

That said at the same time the Broker Recommendations have turned slightly less positive.

[chester] 20/9/2016 13:29

Quietly moving ahead...

[chester] 02/9/2016 11:55

From a Technical Analyst viewpoint, if you draw a Fib retrace from the all time low ( Oct 08 ) to the High ( March 13 ), the 61% fib retrace = 506p
In Dec 14 the 506p held the drop and now again at the Brexit low. In my opinion we're going quite a bit higher from here.

[jrphoenixw2] 02/9/2016 08:40

Yep, since most companies seem to aim to progressively grow their div, I look at what happened a year prior as an estimate of what's coming up... [assuming no known bad news or negative guidance etc.] Though one must be aware this is less reliable with companies that pay any form of Special divs which can be highly variable from year to year.

So last y/e, per their site, 'On 18 December 2015 a special dividend of $0.95 (£0.6313) per common share was paid.'

So my starting point guestimate is the same, $0.95 this year end. If it's more then great, and if it's less then maybe next time :) The FX rate that's applied... is usually the rate at noon in London on the Record Date, and if I remember I'll note that rate n the market at the time and that should then give a very good estimate of the final figure to expect.

@GC: 80Cents eh, hmmm. I don't recall seeing any forward guidance yet. Though that reminds I don't think I've had to time to go and read their Q2 results in detail to see how they were fairing year-on-year at that time.

[garycook] 02/9/2016 07:25

Prediction is around 80cents or 60p,we will see,but always welcome.

[jrphoenixw2] 02/9/2016 06:34

OIC, IIRC I had 28 at the peak, for the sake of sectorial diversification [2 in each of '14 main sectors'], but after some years of I figured it was perhaps as much 'di-worsification' as anything so progressively distilled things down to less holdings, which means less admin too. LRE and BKG have been holdings from the beginning and I suppose have grown into pretty core holdings.

Always look forward to LRE's 'Xmas surprise', and fingers crossed this year will be a juicy one too :)

[garycook] 02/9/2016 05:05

jrp,Have 28 Stocks,so yes I get around a few threads.BEZ,and LRE,best in the NL Insurer,s for me,with there Specials Divs,make them very interesting and rewarding.

[jrphoenixw2] 01/9/2016 14:45

Oh hi Gary, you're over here too :)
Yep I thought similar, they're masking their blushes for having called it wrong, but they're late in the day and still pretty begrudging. Same as politicians who don't like to be seen as performing a U-turn*... maybe.


*X-ref BKG and the possible stamp-duty review.

[garycook] 01/9/2016 12:42

RBC are a bit late and behind the curve LRE now over there TP of 625.Needs upgrading again to 700p

[jrphoenixw2] 19/8/2016 16:00

I've been pondering in recent recent weeks whether it might be a take-over target, on a FY of roughly 13% they're [we're!] printing divs.
But re: the above article on the OTPP, I wonder, they don't even seem to have a notifiable stake yet. Plus, 618p would be having a laugh. Who would vote for a take-over at effectively nil premium?
X-ref: average premium in US take-overs in 2015 was 16%*, quite low compared to recent years. LRE now @ 610, so that would be a bid of say 708p.

- Of course LRE could be spreading low-ball red herrings, to coax some bigger fi$h in hehe, who knows...

*source:

[speedsgh] 19/8/2016 10:16

Canadian predator the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan circling Lloyd's insurer Lancashire Holdings -

Lloyd's of London insurer Lancashire Holdings was in focus on a quiet day in mid-August.

The talk in the market is that a massive Canadian pension fund, thought to be Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, approached the business before Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union about taking the company private.

It is said that before Brexit, the fund had indicated it could be willing to offer about £1.3billion or 618p a share for Lancashire Holdings.

It's not clear, however, whether talks between the FTSE 250 company and its suitor are still 'live'.

Still, reliable sources suggested other parties are interested in Lancashire Holdings, which insures properties, planes and boats, and a takeover deal could be brewing. Shares rose 0.7 per cent, or 4.5p to 610p.

[jrphoenixw2] 15/8/2016 15:45

+10% top-up this pm. Seems a bit of a no-brainer on c13.5% FY. Particularly with Sterling weakness translating into higher converted earnings.

[jrphoenixw2] 14/8/2016 07:36

The info I have...

Interactive Brokers have it accrued at £0.0387

The LRE site states: 'On 26 July 2016 an interim dividend of $0.05 (£0.0379) ;per common share was declared. The dividends will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 31 August 2016 to shareholders of record on 5 August 2016.'

Maybe the IB figure is final, and the LRE announcement was a prelim [pre the rate on the R/D]

[garycook] 14/8/2016 05:36

ATM Over the weekend.I make it 0.0387 = GBP/USD 1.2919

[jrphoenixw2] 13/8/2016 19:00

Can I just check the the final converted rate for the div with P/D 31/8-16 is going to be $0.05 ie. = £0.0379 ?

I usually have a bit of confusion over what the final sum for the converted dividend is, not least as my broker accrues at one FX rate until the last moment [past R/D] and then pays at another. So independently confirming the correct sum always seems to come down to me to try and divine.

Thx.