Kopane Share Discussion Threads

[pembury] 04/8/2010 08:15

what a surprise
if it were a simple cash offer we would have seen some stability set probably over 15p. But no, just another opportunity for the market i'm afraid.

[giant steps] 04/8/2010 08:13

FDI 26-26.5p, KDD 10.75-11.25p

A falling FDI price may pull KDD down to preserve the discount.
That sinking feeling persists.

[andy] 04/8/2010 08:06

Smarm,

If you had told me 15 minutes before COB the day before this was coming, I would have sold the lot immediately, no hesitation, for the reasons I have stated above.

And that has been proven to be the correct action, so, if nothing else, my gut feeling was correct!

I had an interesting meeting at Heathrow yesterday with a renowned (IMO) writer / analyst, who was transiting through, and if you think I am negative on the economy, you ought to have heard this guy!

He is American, so his thoughts were US rather than UK related, to be fair, but the US is the largest consumer of diamonds worldwide.

[nathand] 04/8/2010 07:57

Looks like this is the new FDI thread so I'll add my 2 pennies worth (or 0.05579 of a FDI share at the offer).

The initially selling I would imagine is a result of a number of factors; the bidder is pretty much guaranteed to drop on the news so a few will have caught this off the blocks and sold, stop orders would have been triggered on the way down, momentum sellers would have joined the party, short termers who aren't prepared to wait around would have come in also within the first day or two. You may be able to add some shorters in there. Hence a tasty drop in the share price from RNS ground zero.

Not sure where that leaves us now and to be honest I would have expected some nudge up along the way even if only a penny or two. Two things stand out to me on this front at this time.

[1] Legal & General have not declared their irrevocable commitment to this deal, they own 8.279M shares.
[2] JP Morgan Fleming own 13.059M FDI and 29.049M KDD shares and have declared their irrevocable commitment.

It is possible then that Legal & General and/or JP Morgan will be looking to reduce their positions, albeit for different reasons, i.e. potential dissatisfaction and being overweight respectively. For the same reason that KDD offers a thin buying arbitrage window the moment I believe that FDI offers the same if you are selling (to be honest though I haven't done the maths on this one).

What can be said though is that every FDI trade day looks extremely weighted on the buy side and yet we get no overall uptick (though a couple intraday).

[smarm] 03/8/2010 18:58

Andy - to the first part of your post I can only say that things change. The harder question is why the price has fallen some 25%. Leaving emotion and ranting about PK out of it, what is your thinking behind the fall?

S

[smarm] 03/8/2010 15:54

Andy - it does indeed, why did I write that! I think I was trying to say something else. What do you think will happen to FDI if the deal fails? Do you think PK will quietly get on with running BK11 and a $3,000 per annum tailings project? Do you think failure of the deal will do his reputation any good?

Gun, point, shoot...at your own foot.

S

[andy] 03/8/2010 14:57

smarm - 1 Aug'10 - 23:47 - 7752 of 7777

I am, and it most certainly does!

[giant steps] 03/8/2010 14:06

(two basic charts added to header)

[gobbyash] 03/8/2010 13:44

GS, Could we have FDI chart in the header and a link?

[devil20] 03/8/2010 10:57

There's no doubt most investors were surprised re the deal with FDI. Most of us expected a reasonable cash pay-out. Hence disappointment takes both SPs down. But the big holders must of liked the deal. I'll hold on for an expected recovery in the share price of FDI.

[giant steps] 03/8/2010 09:56

sometimes they are opposites, but one is stronger than the other - makes for an interesting one-direction ride !

[parsnip884] 03/8/2010 09:52

Aren't pulling and pushing directions the opposite ?

[giant steps] 03/8/2010 09:49

Yes 123asd - harmonious falls, pulling and pushing but still one direction

[123asd] 03/8/2010 09:37

GS - well, good luck with that, you have about eight weeks to realise your prediction.

[giant steps] 03/8/2010 09:31

123asd - one step at a time, exactly.

Hope all is well; nice to see the thread quieten down.

[123asd] 03/8/2010 09:27

GS - well, that's progress from you, I guess! Only sub-11p? Or is that merely a step on the way to your long delayed and much vaunted sub-10p?

[giant steps] 03/8/2010 09:02

Looks like the drip drip selling continues, sub 11p beckons imo.

KDD 11-11.25, FDI 26.5-27.25p

[smarm] 02/8/2010 21:21

FJ - OK, I see what you are getting at. As for HAWK and IOF; done with both so won't be spending time on them. Park and forget...rule number, er....who can remember, so many rules, so little time.

s

[fjp73] 02/8/2010 19:55

Evening Smarm, I do not doubt it but there are many ways to exit at a profit. Short or Long in Spreadbet/CFD or straight selling at a profit or combining the lot. It was merely something flying round my head. If I'm honest I don't see the FDI price rising for some time (willing / pleased to be proved wrong) so if an investor with a large position wants out, they can use other derivatives to profit. A successful short can pay larger than the maximum possible gain on a short if played correctly!! I was merely commenting on a possibility for which when I have worked out the total holdings of share and the probable I will have a better opinion on. However, please just ignore it...

KDD, as I stated previously has clear long-term value, as I jumped off the fence with on an earlier post with my forecasted Market Cap, the downside is "it's just 48 months away :-)." Please see my post 7739 for what I consider a basic calculation but not out of the question for the combined group.

As a side note regarding your comments on Nighthawk (HAWK) and Iofina (IOF) I look forward to your analysis on the respective boards so as to not clog KDD with them.

BW Fraser