Kistos Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 19/9/2021 11:09

-1st North Sea gas due Q4 2021

[fandagle] 17/9/2021 09:34

Quite happy with the honest and robust way things have been presented this week by BOD, ok it may be time to take a breathe but onwards and upwards with the escalating Gas prices.

[gf123] 17/9/2021 09:26

I am convinced we may see a little bit more news here in the next few days. Malcy interview is in the diary, no doubt to coincide with whats to come

[mariopeter] 16/9/2021 11:05

A sort of hybrid accounting. Having thought about it I think we did acquire in May and the acquisition was backdated to 1st Jan. Leave the technicals to the accountants. We have bagged higher cash in any event. Less goodwill too.That would explain why we have been hedging gas futures all the way through from Jan. Quite what the cost is doing in HQ reserves and not in the proforma cost of sale is also confusing but guess that gets sorted at year end. Next up ...results from shut-in of Q10.

[mariopeter] 15/9/2021 10:30

Dutch futures now 76 Euro

[thefartingcommie] 14/9/2021 17:13

Kistos

Kistos has provided its interim results for the period to 30 June 2021, ‘the numbers referred to as “actual” in this announcement include the results of Kistos plc from incorporation on 14th October 2020 and the results of Kistos NL1 and Kistos NL2 from acquisition on 20 May 2021. The “pro forma” numbers include the results of Kistos plc from incorporation on 14th October 2020 and the results of Kistos NL1 and Kistos NL2 as if they had been part of the Group from 1st January 2021′.

The detail of the RNS is as follows, following the incorporation and listing on AIM of Kistos plc in the final quarter of 2020, the Company completed the acquisition of Tulip Oil Netherlands B.V. and its wholly owned subsidiary Tulip Oil Netherlands Offshore B.V. (subsequently renamed Kistos NL1 B.V. and Kistos NL2 B.V. respectively) for €223MM (comprising €140MM plus an €87MM bond refinancing and other adjustments) in May 2021.

The acquisition brought 2P reserves of 19.7 MMboe plus 2C resources of 99.1 MMboe. The Q10-A gas field, which is operated by Kistos NL2 with a 60% working interest, produced at an average rate of 1.42 MM sm3/d (gross), equivalent to 48 MMcf/d or 8.6 kboe/d, in the six months to 30 June 2021.

Kistos’ scope 1 emissions of 0.09 kg CO2e/boe in 2020 are industry leading and they expect that position to be maintained following the recent upgrade of wind turbines on the renewably powered Q10-A platform during the period.

Kistos remains well-funded after issuing €150MM of Nordic Bonds and raising over £100MM from equity investors since incorporation. Cash balances on 30 June 2021 were €59.1MM. Given this financial strength and in line with its strategy, the Group continues to evaluate several business development opportunities in the energy transition space.

Kistos is currently undertaking a work programme to enhance production at the Q10-A field and appraise the Q11-B gas discovery and the Vlieland light oil discovery. Borr Drilling’s Prospector-1 jack-up drilling rig has been on location since mid-July and is expected to remain on contract with Kistos until the end of November.

As a result of this campaign, Kistos expects the Q10-A field to exit 2021 with gross production of more than 2.0MM sm3/d (71 MMcf/d or 12.7 kboe/d). The appraisal drilling is designed to start the process of converting approximately 100 MMboe (gross) of 2C resources into 2P reserves. If successful, it could lead to a further significant uplift in Kistos’ production by the mid-2020s.

The company reported earlier this month that the initial results of the appraisal of the Vlieland sandstone formation, which was the first stage of the drilling campaign, were ‘highly encouraging. After encountering the target formation on prognosis at a depth of 1,562 metres TVDss, an 825 metres horizontal section was drilled by the Prospector-1. The Q10-A-04 A well was then flow tested for 5 days between 26th and 31 August 2021′.

During this time, a maximum stable rate of 3,200 barrels of oil per day (bopd) was achieved. This was higher than anticipated and the oil is of good quality with an API of 33 degrees. The information obtained from the well, along with reservoir and surface samples taken during the flow test, will be analysed as Kistos prepares a field development plan for this project. Kistos has previously estimated 2C resources for this accumulation of over 70 MMbbl (gross). This estimate was independently audited by Sproule and will be refined following review of all the data.

Richard Benmore, Interim Chairman commented:

“I am delighted to be able to report Kistos’ maiden set of interim results covering the period from incorporation to 30 June 2021, which included approximately six weeks of production from the Q10-A field. I am also pleased to announce the successful integration of the two companies acquired from Tulip Oil Holdings into the wider Group.

After the success of the oil test from the Vlieland sandstone formation, we are looking forward to sharing further results of the current drilling campaign with stakeholders. In the meantime, the Company continues to mature further opportunities within its existing portfolio. This work is expected to lead to additional drilling in the medium term. We are also evaluating an active pipeline of business development opportunities.

On behalf of our shareholders, we are striving to build a first-class energy transition business. We have taken great strides in a short period of time, and we will continue to pursue rapid, disciplined growth both organically and through acquisitions.”

Kistos continues to move fast to, from a standing start remember, a fast growing energy business capable of building by acquisition and of course through exciting prospects within the portfolio. The shares were down modestly first thing which is difficult to understand, possibly as people didnt like the small amount of hedging, which incidentally was done to cover capex, and still only 30%. You only have to look at what the gas price has done in the last 18 months to at least consider some modest hedging to be wise especially under the circumstances.

In my last report on Kistos I suggested that a very achievable short term target of 300p+ by taking the mid-case 42m bbls x $15 plus the existing business was the very least the market should give it, that scenario still stands as does the view that the market cap of £238m is still derisory…

[bountyhunter] 14/9/2021 15:20

The hedging "loss" is likely to be an accounting loss i.e. the difference between the hedged price and spot, so just a theoretical figure due to spot prices rising (this will occur for all gas companies which have hedged a proportion of production in a rising gas price environment). Hedging of course is to cover capital costs where they couldn't take the risks of not covering those costs if the gas price had dropped. Unhedged and future production (whether unhedged or to be hedged) still benefits from higher spot prices.

[mariopeter] 14/9/2021 13:59

Was not exactly "modest hedging" they have reported a hedging loss of 8.4m which was bigger than the "actual" turnover. Probably something to do with all the fundraising. No note to explain.

Must admit I am confused about turnover and the difference between proforma results and actual because I find this presentation utterly confusing. Did the acquisition get backdated or not? If it did the "actual" consolidated turnover in totally understated.

I3e may be undervalued. Does it have $645m of oil that it could sell in a jiff if desired like KIST ? We also don't know anything about I3e production costs and operational gearing. Our financial gearing is transparent. Kist production costs and G+A costs are very very small.

The August presentation had the new projected production numbers after shut in which will be nice as Dutch TTF futures are rocketing and now Euro 66 today.

[piratepeter] 14/9/2021 09:20

From Malcy on Twitter “I have just had a long chat with AA at @kistosplc who is delighted with the numbers as you might expect. The modest hedging is only to cover capex and is the same as before. Everything else in great nick and we both think the shares should be higher. We can now firm up an i/view.”

[jungmana] 14/9/2021 08:43

Lol! I3e interims will be out within 2 weeks. Always comes out in the 2nd part of September. Right now knocking over 19kboepd

[fandagle] 14/9/2021 08:39

Given i3E Farm Out has stalled & the reluctance to produce their financials I suggest you scuttle back to I3E then, on the way back try Cha Cha smoothing off the London Bridge along with all the rest of the pathetic I3E Super Rampers....

[jungmana] 14/9/2021 08:07

Overvalued at GBP250m market cap compared to i3e. Too much debt and far less production here compared to i3e that produces 19,000boepd already and growing. Not to mention the North sea Assets. Pays nice dividend and market cap just about GBP 130m today.Just my humble view.

[bountyhunter] 14/9/2021 08:00

Did we already know the expected 2021 exit rate of 12.7 kboe/d for the Q10-A field?

[davidbennett] 14/9/2021 07:44

Not a lot in here we didn’t already know - I will be more interested in watching Malcy’s interview with AA.

[fandagle] 14/9/2021 07:43

The progress after only 37 weeks has been incredible, yet it is very much a WIP, very informative, positive update....

[bountyhunter] 14/9/2021 07:31

From today's Interims...

"Kistos expects the Q10-A field to exit 2021 with gross production of more than 2.0MM sm(3) /d (71 MMcf/d or 12.7 kboe/d)."
...
...

"We were pleased to report earlier this month that the initial results of the appraisal of the Vlieland sandstone formation, which was the first stage of the drilling campaign, were highly encouraging. After encountering the target formation on prognosis at a depth of 1,562 metres TVDss, an 825 metres horizontal section was drilled by the Prospector-1. The Q10-A-04 A well was then flow tested for 5 days between 26(th) and 31 August 2021.

During this time, a maximum stable rate of 3,200 barrels of oil per day (bopd) was achieved. This was higher than anticipated and the oil is of good quality with an API of 33 degrees. The information obtained from the well, along with reservoir and surface samples taken during the flow test, will be analysed as Kistos prepares a field development plan for this project. Kistos has previously estimated 2C resources for this accumulation of over 70 MMbbl (gross). This estimate was independently audited by Sproule and will be refined following review of all the data."

[smudgeroo] 13/9/2021 22:07

Looking forward to hearing an update tomorrow on when production is anticipated to restart and that the compressor issues have been resolved.From 1st September update"The Q10-A field is currently shut in while annual planned maintenance is undertaken at the TAQA-operated P15-D facility, through which gas export is currently routed. Production is anticipated to re-start before the end of September. Prior to the shut in production was constrained by compressor issues on the P15-D platform."

[vino] 13/9/2021 18:27

Most large contracts of Gas will be allready negotiated at a lower price so will hope that prices stay high for a while so new contracts will reflect the higher price
Of course will affect my household bill but hey ho

[mariopeter] 13/9/2021 12:41

TTF Gas futures break Euro 60

[mariopeter] 10/9/2021 13:22

Someone asked about WACC

Two debts as follows:
New Tono Bond Euro 90m Nov (2024 redemption) Coupon 8.75% Used to pay off old Bond of Euro 87m. Issued May 2021.
New Tono Bond (2) Euro 60m (2026 redemption) Coupon 9.15%. Used for acquisition.
New TONO Bond will be listed on the Oslo Borse in due course

On equity there are only 83m shares in issue and the New Tono Bond restricts dividends to zero until first gas from Q11B (Projected around April 2023). May suffer diddly bit of dilution on two deferred payments of E7.5m each... see below.

The only other debt I could see at acquisition was a small Euro 3.7m loan note repayable 1/1/2025 with a coupon of 8.4%.




Note for later there are deferred consideration payments of up to Euro 163m:
* Q10 Gamma: EUR 10 million cash payment conditional upon FID being reached;
* Q10 A Vlieland: (1) following the appraisal well in the third quarter of 2021, the Company has
nine months to decide whether to 'proceed', triggering a payment of EUR 7.5 million to TOH.
This can be satisfied with cash or equity; and (2) upon FID, a payment of USD 4.50/bbl is
triggered, based upon the net reserves at the time of sanction and capped at EUR 75 million,
payable upon first hydrocarbons; and
* M10a and M11: (1) following a nine-month period to review the asset, if the Company decides
to retain ownership, then a payment of EUR 7.5 million will be due to TOH. This can be
satisfied with either cash or equity; and (2) upon FID, a payment of up to USD 75 million will
be triggered, based on USD 3/boe of sanctioned reserves, net to the Company. This will be
paid upon first gas

[bountyhunter] 10/9/2021 13:01

so I don't forget, interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2021 are on

Tuesday 14 September 2021

[mariopeter] 10/9/2021 10:38

Looking forward to new improved production numbers this month after the shut in. My feeling is they are fairly sure about better numbers(they have announced quite firm forecasts for year end production)and there is the chance that they might even improve their forecasts. That may be the next leg up for the share price when the uncertainty of the shut in is removed and they achieve what they have forecast. I guess that RNS is in a race with the oil report rns.

[mariopeter] 10/9/2021 09:24

Looked into fixing home gas and electric tariffs. Fixed prices set at 50% above variable rate for Octopus. Left it on variable. Hedged owning Kistos!

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2021 20:56

Could we see energy rationing this winter as a result of the Russians squeeze on our imported gas supplies? I must admit this is the first I have heard of this possibility...

[bountyhunter] 09/9/2021 20:56

Good luck with that strategy! I can see this going higher with gas prices going through the roof.