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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kinovo Plc | KINO | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.20 | 0.48% | 42.00 | 08:00:20 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.00 | 42.00 | 43.00 | 42.00 | 41.80 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GAS WATER & UTILITIES |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 08/3/2024 15:35 by qs99 100%Directors may be in a close period though at moment ahead of March year end? Either way, they need to put some £s skin in the game to reassure investors I agree |
Posted at 08/3/2024 15:12 by sooty snipes Would have liked to have bought some today but short of funds. There again I'd like to see some director buys now to reassure investors the worst of the DCB debacle really is out the way. Perhaps they may shed more light on the final project next Tuesday |
Posted at 08/3/2024 15:11 by mfhmfh It might be worth listening to the Investor Meet presentation on 12.03.24.It's listed on the Investor Meet website as 'Update on DCB Discontinued Operations'. |
Posted at 08/3/2024 08:21 by qs99 tbf there seem to be some buys coming in at this level as well, let's see where the dust settles and what management have to say next week on the investor meet...DYOR |
Posted at 08/3/2024 08:06 by qs99 Your 10-15% drop thought looks spot on....! Re-reading the RNS, the management need to reassure market as to last contract risk and show a route through to say 3-5 year plan of delivering say £10m EBITDA from underlying business (reckon they need to be "ahead" for full year to offset disappointment of DCB if they can, so near £7m EBITDA)....which would then at least give market/investors line of sight on an underlying business that should be on a good growth rating generating net cash! DYOR |
Posted at 13/2/2024 16:45 by dyor2 Am not too surprised by the pullback in Kino’s share price since the trading update. News on the core business was fine as expected, but (fairly or not) the DCB update has shaken sentiment and re awakened lingering investor doubts over management credibility on the eventual outcome of DCB completion costs. Kinovo is a thinly traded share, and that, coupled with what looks like one of the institutional holders deciding to sell out, lies behind the subsequent 30% share price pullback.Personally, I’m not too bothered by this. The £1.4m increased DCB costs aren’t particularly horrific and can comfortably be funded over the next few months from cash generated by the core business, and as the projects complete (8 of the 9 are now scheduled to be complete by the end of May), the scope for further nasty surprises will markedly reduce. But the big question for me is what Tim Scott plans to do with his 30% stake. It’s fairly obvious that in due course he’ll either use it to launch a renewed bid, or sell to another bidder. Maybe he hasn’t decided yet, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t do either one or the other later this year. Under Takeover Panel rules the soonest he can come back with another bid is late March/April this year. If that’s what he decides to do, then if I were him I’d do it as soon as he’s allowed to, whilst the share price is depressed. If he’s going to sell to another bidder, I’d leave it until later in the year after the 2023/4 full year results, when the DCB picture will be pretty fully resolved and he can sell to a bidder on the prospect of say £7.5m EBITDA for 2024/5. But the bottom line for me is that I can’t see him staying with a passive 30% stake forever, and the only way he can get full value for the stake is either to bid again himself or sell to another bidder. So one way or another I’m guessing that the fundamental value of the core business will lead to a bid later this year. I think a number of PE houses would bid at least 7X EBITDA, and on forecast 2023/4 EBITDA of £7.5m that gives an enterprise value for the Kino core business of £52.5m, which is 84p a share. IMV that sort of multiple would significantly undervalue the core business (because at £7.5m EBITDA the business will be generating circa £7m free cash flow p.a., which is a 13% p.a. free chas flow return on a £52.5m bid value - very juicy for a PE bidder). But regrettably the current share price weakness would make it likely to succeed. In fact, FWIW, if a bid were launched right now then I think it might succeed at as low as 75p. We’ll see, and I’d love to be proven wrong and hold this share for the longer term despite the share price pullback. But I’m increasingly feeling like I won’t get the chance. |
Posted at 19/11/2023 13:12 by davidosh We select good companies, we invite them and the rest is down to management.Some are shy, some claim they cannot afford time at an event meeting investors, some are genuinely unavailable and some see the real value in meeting serious investors face to face as opposed to the hundreds of webinars available but where you cannot ask private questions and spend proper time with management. I know you are coming to Chiswick Nick so do please encourage Kinovo to accept our invite. We have 27 companies coming so far and great speakers plus our legendary BASH sessions |
Posted at 17/11/2023 22:26 by davidosh Following on from the results on the 28th we have invited the management team to come and do two presentations for the hundreds of Mello investors attending the two day conference in Chiswick in London.There are over 30 companies engaging with investors and it seems perfect timing for Kinovo There are lots of fund managers attending and fab speakers so very worthwhile attending |
Posted at 04/9/2023 15:08 by dyor2 QS99, I’m pretty sure that the majority of PIs want to “show the finger”, but I’m less sure about the BoD and (some) of the institutions. Of the 70% of Kino shares not already controlled by Tim Scott, 24% of the company is controlled by the BoD and institutions, and 46% by private investors. That makes the attitude of private investors to this bid fairly pivotal. You already know the view of Nick Slater and myself (taken together we control c.7%), and I believe a number of other significant PI investors feel the same. Tim Scott/Rx3 will have to weigh that up when considering their next move. I note that they haven’t yet withdrawn their bid approach, despite the BoD on Friday indicating that they won’t recommend a 56p bid. That must mean they’re considering a higher offer. They certainly won’t want to pay up too much, but their problem is how to win over the private investors to achieve 100%, because a significant number of us feel quite strongly that this offer substantially undervalues this business.This situation is unusual in a number of respects, but to me the most significant is that Tim Scott is a very wealthy, highly successful entrepeneur, who knows the business and its prospects intimately - and he wants to buy it with his own (family Trust) money. So it’s not like the usual sort of bid from a private equity outfit or a competitor, where they’re using somebody else’s money. This is a very bright guy, who knows the business very well, and has shown himself to be very shrewd not only in his business career to date, but also in his purchases of Kinovo shares, who now wants to use £35m of his own money to buy 100% of it. I don’t blame him at all, in fact well done Tim for spotting the opportunity. It’s just that if he’s buying, it doesn’t feel like I should be selling! |
Posted at 01/9/2023 13:02 by farnesbarnes You lot are just unsavvy, over-exuberant PI's according to the following piece from Small Caps Life (Don't shoot the messenger):Kinovo (KINO.L) - Possible Offer Potential bidder for Kinovo, Rx3, fill shareholders on their thinking about the pricing of any potential offer. On DCB Kent, they say: The exposure is therefore not a contract relating to £4.3 million but contracts equating to £18 million and until these have all been successfully completed and the £14 million expected receipts from DCB's clients actually collected, it will not be known whether the provision of £4.3 million is adequate. Indeed, this figure has already been increased from £4.3 million in the 2022 statutory accounts to £5.3 million in the 2023 statutory accounts, with this figure offset by a yet to be agreed claim against DCB's structural engineers of £1.0 million. On the market value of the shares versus the minimum offer of 40p: Despite Tipacs2's significant support in the placing of Western Selection's holding, Rx3 understands it was a protracted sale process, taking several weeks to place the remaining shares. Tipacs2 was prepared to pay a premium to what it regarded as the real market value at the time in order to maximise its strategic holding at 29.89%. The difficulty that Western Selection had in selling down its c.12.0% stake, even with Tipacs2 taking the maximum amount of the order that it was able to accept, clearly demonstrates that the current share price does not reflect the true market value for a significant seller of the Company's shares. Basically, they are telling other shareholders that they have bid the value of the shares up too high, given the major contract risks that remain, and the illiquidity of the shares. The point they are making is potentially valid: that they chose to overpay for the shares at 40p to obtain control, that no one was particularly keen to take the rest at 40p in July this year, and that the only thing that has changed since then is a certain amount of private investor exuberance for the company developing on Twitter/advfn. For example, there were results in July and a couple of framework announcements, but these didn't really seem to move the price. However, this misses that the overhang itself seemed to cause the drop down to the low 40s, and the share price was approaching the current level prior to that. So, although 40p may be the clearing price for a large stake, the clearing price for the smaller investors that they want to vote for their deal is around 50p. Individual investors like us can often be the least savvy investors, especially when it comes to assessing risks within a business. However, if Rx3 don't want to bear the risks of DCB Kent's contract guarantees, then they don't have to make an offer for the whole company. But likewise, if the largely PI shareholder base is happy bearing these risks, then they don't have to accept the offer. Presumably, the 56p mooted price was calculated as a 40% premium to the 40p price they bought at last month, which may be reduced as they do their due diligence on the current state of the DCB Kent contracts. So despite the partial logic of the Rx3 position, this bid as a scheme of arrangement looks doomed to failure. Rightly or wrongly, smaller investors simply value this company more highly than Rx3 does. Rx3 probably realise by now that they won't get the 75% for a scheme of arrangement too and will have to make a normal offer if they want to proceed as they also said the following in their announcement: Rx3 has not determined whether any offer, if one is made, will be made via a scheme of arrangement or a contractual offer, and Rx3 is considering all options available to it. In the event any offer is made via a contractual offer and is successful, any remaining minority shareholder should be aware of the implications of being a minority shareholder of a company under majority control and the control such a majority shareholder would have. This is obviously the stick part of their attempt to get shareholder compliance. If they get more than 50% either from those accepting the offer or by buying in the market at or below the offer price, then they could make some aggressive moves. The first is probably to remove the board and put in their own representatives. There is no dividend to cancel here, so that is unnecessary. But they could have a large rights issue, thus forcing the holdouts to put in a lot of extra cash so as to not to be diluted out of their position. If they get to 75% acceptance, then they will delist, of course. They will also have to bid without the current board’s consent, as on Friday, the company announced that: The Directors have concluded that if the Possible Offer of 56 pence per share was made by Rx3 they will not be recommending it to shareholders. The Directors have undertaken a process of consultation with certain key shareholders and considered direct shareholder feedback in reaching this conclusion. Larger shareholders that can easily put in a few million pounds more to back their position, and are willing and able to hold a delisted stock for as long as it takes, may then be able to find out whether their assertion that this is worth much more than the mooted offer price is correct. Everyone else may just end up capitulating to a hostile offer eventually. The other thing to consider is what Rx3 may do if they don’t choose to bid or a bid fails to get 50%. They may just keep holding, but with the price still above what they consider fair value for a non-strategic stake, they may just flip the shares they bought at 40p for a nice turn. Especially since their DD on DCB appears to have yielded a worse situation than they initially thought. If they choose that route, it is unlikely that the non-institutional shareholder base could absorb all the selling and still see the price rise, and with the share price becalmed in the 40s for a couple of years, most will have got bored and moved on. They may even be able to buy back more sub-40p at various points when equity markets are weak. Come 2025, the risks of DCB Kent's contracts will have been resolved, and they may be able to make the offer again at the same price with lower risk. All in all, this doesn’t seem to be a great situation for anyone. |
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