Kier Share Discussion Threads

[zicopele] 14/6/2022 08:58

NEC Option E or Option C. Inflation mitigated HS2.

[stutes] 14/6/2022 08:39

How are contractors on HS2 being paid for increase cost or not?

[wallywoo] 14/6/2022 06:25

The share price has fallen 50% now in almost a straight line for 14 months. At what point will you stop making excuses for the falling shares and admit that the reasons aren't the Ukraine war, bad market days etc??? By positively recommending this share you are trying to scam investors into buying this rubbish.


This has fallen because Kier after 6 years of losing cash, IS STILL losing cash. It's irrelevant how many contracts they win, if you investment spends more than the money coming in. Eventually those companies always go bust. They had a clear time to state that their cash troubles were behind them during their markets day last week. However, they ignored this crucial point yet again!!!! Libor interest rates (all debt is linked to this and Kier's debt terms are worse every time it is negotiated) has increased 4x in that time and will increase more in the next year. Kier's new debt terms increased by between 0.25 to 0.75 percent more than last year too. Those interest payments will weigh Kier down in yet more debt.


POOR INVESTMENT STEER CLEAR

[stutes] 14/6/2022 01:46

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/06/14/tender-price-inflation-to-soar-to-10-this-year/

After the hikes in energy cost; the only way is for firms is to be paid on a formula basis all increase cost.

[zicopele] 13/6/2022 16:24

They bid lower and won the job.

[itisonlymoney] 13/6/2022 15:55

A real hammering on the main indices today. all UK shares diving, including BP. kier still winning more and more contracts though. there comes a point where the risk off attitdue to shares meets the facts for kier. dunno when, but maybe next month. here's news of more BIG contract wins in central London.

hxxps://www.building.co.uk/news/kier-lined-up-for-70m-scheme-close-to-shakespeares-globe/5117846.article
Kier lined up for £70m scheme close to Shakespeare’s Globe



hxxps://www.building.co.uk/news/kier-win-keeps-mcalpine-waiting-for-debut-derwent-scheme/5117789.article
£60m Network Building job due to start later this summer

Kier has scored a coup after pipping Sir Robert McAlpine to a £60m office and retail scheme on Tottenham Court Road for Derwent, Building understands.

[stutes] 13/6/2022 15:48

BBC News - Lloyds Bank staff to get £1,000 to help with cost of living


Firms will have to follow suit or see staff jumping to firms who pay more. A race to more inflation and, if not checked, recession.

[stutes] 13/6/2022 15:13

hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/06/13/construction-output-dips-amid-economic-slowdow-fears/

Here we go - share prices generally could be marked down even more?

[stutes] 13/6/2022 15:07

If UK GDP drops next month as well then UK is in a technical recession and the fallout could hurt construction pipeline.

As for the calculation of equity loss, what about sale of homes unit and London/Sandy HQ offices?

[zicopele] 13/6/2022 11:46

It really has been an unmitigated disaster. Not much else to say on the subject.

My guess is early 2024 and say 900m shares at 30p for one final rinsing of shareholders.

[wallywoo] 13/6/2022 11:23

Who knows, zico. Maybe the government will take a stake in Kier next like they did with many banks in 2009. What I do know is;


1) Kier have too many shares in issue and with no return on offer the share price is only going down


2) it's highly unlikely that Kier will generate any cash this year with £109m operating cash outflow in H1. And highly possible they continued to lose cash in H2.


3) the general economy is in free fall with high inflation and negative growth (stagflation). Only own the strongest companies, not the weakest like Kier.


4) remember this company has already flushed away over £1.3B of shareholders money. They can easily lose the rest,2007 Kier had a market cap of £810m (45m x 1800p)

In 2022 (now) they have a market cap of £320m


With the new equity issues, shareholders have injected:

858 x 40m = £343m in 2016

409 x 62m = £253m in 2018

85 x 283m = £240m in 2021


Total injected by shareholders over 15 years = £836m

Therefore capital loss for shareholders over 15 years is;

810 + 836 - 320= £1326m.

[zicopele] 13/6/2022 09:19

Wally, when do you think the next rights issue will be and at what price?

[stutes] 13/6/2022 08:45

UK GDP figure out today shows the country is heading for a recession - inflation is driven by external factors and not by UK domestic ones. The BoE in hiking rates hits firms who use debt to provide working capital - how many subbies or contractors could face cashflow problems?

[zicopele] 13/6/2022 08:15

You called it Wally. Down she goes.

Tye economy is teetering in the edge of recession.

[wallywoo] 13/6/2022 07:39

Market looks like another poor day, with futures pointing down 75 points.


Kier is dangerously right on a major support level. If this goes then they will likely test the lows at below 50p

[itisonlymoney] 13/6/2022 01:28

another contract win:
Kier Places awarded £28m planned improvement contract with whg
hxxps://www.kier.co.uk/media/news-releases/kier-places-awarded-28m-planned-improvement-contract-with-whg/
Kier Places has been awarded a £28m contract with affordable housing provider, whg, to deliver planned improvements to over 4,500 homes in the West Midlands.

[zicopele] 12/6/2022 23:37

Long posts Steddy....Kier is a dud. More falls coming your way soon. I believe you are buying all the way to £3. Well go on...fill your boots.

[stdyeddy] 12/6/2022 22:06

And btw sicko, thanks for pointing out what a great bargain Kier is right now. Yes, RI price at 85p and the market cap for Kier is less than the £330m cash that went in a year ago. In other words, the core Kier business prior to that cash injection is arguably valued at precisely nothing. Zero. A business that is the largest regional construction firm in the UK, is finally making a profit after two years of massive writedowns and redundancies, and has huge institutional backing -- 60% of Kier is reported as being owned by institutional investors and below that reporting threshold there's a massive tail of instis holding this share. 72p is a huge bargain. But please keep up your non-stop bullsh1t because I will enjoy see you deleting all these posts of yours into a mere fullstop when you get proved wrong again.

[stdyeddy] 12/6/2022 21:55

Everything bad has come true? You were saying that the business was bust; instead Kier raised cash by selling off assets and successfully staging a rights issue and is now well capitalised again. Customers are awarding Kier massive contracts. Turnover is going back up. Last reporting period showed actual profit after two years of losses. The business is much leaner having shed almost half its 2018 staff (you sicko probably being one of them -- hence your unwavering grudge here. I imagine you didn't like the fact that your lazy, useless ar$e had finally been booted out the door).

As for bathboy -- what a pr@tt! 'To my understanding...' What your posts consistently show is that you have absolutely no understanding of Kier or construction as a business or anything else for that matter.

[zicopele] 12/6/2022 20:40

Steddy telling us that the pension is in surplus when we all know there is a deficit is nothing new.

And he would have us all believe that the rights issue has been a success.

Shareholders have been rinsed by the rights issue. Rights issue at 85p and current price hovering over 72p.

Painful lesson for anyone who believed Steddy and his nonsense.

[bathboy2] 12/6/2022 20:33

To my understanding, the current pension scheme is in surplus, But the old final salary scheme is in serious deficit, and that where most of the staff who joined kiers from the likes of May Gurney are, and a large of kier staff still are

[zicopele] 12/6/2022 19:37

Everything bad has come true. Kier is currently trading at a price below its most recent rights issue.

Mind you, Kier has form for trading below all its rights issues.and there have been so many. I expect a fall to 55p quite soon. Value destruction is almost complete.

I wonder how bad things have to get before Steddy admits he got it badly wrong. Not only have investors lost money on their original investment but they eagerly and enthusiastically invested new clean money in order to lose yet more money on the latest rights issue which has proved to be another rinsing.

Kier has been and still is a disaster. The telecoms contracts will only confirm this.

[stdyeddy] 12/6/2022 19:00

You really are a snide little snake aren't you sicko? Or perhaps you've had a little warning about libel? Just a small sample of your work -- snide little comments and outright lies all replaced with a fullstop:

zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 10:28:58 - 22516 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 10:01:19 - 22514 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 09:12:25 - 22512 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 08:50:49 - 22509 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 08:43:36 - 22506 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 08:32:45 - 22503 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 08:24:01 - 22499 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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zicopele - 13 Jul 2021 - 08:18:10 - 22497 of 23612 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
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[stdyeddy] 12/6/2022 18:57

Keep saying it sicko and maybe it'll come true. Fact is though, you've been predicting doom here for the last two years and everything you've claimed has been wrong. You said they couldn't sell Kier Living -- wrong. You said Kier couldn't raise cash from a rights issue -- wrong. You've been wrong about so many things that you started deleting all of your posts and replacing them with a full stop. And as for bidding low -- also incorrect; Kier has walked away from many contracts over the last two years in order to maintain profitability. That massive Marylebone contract is a good example, where another firm underbid Kier, and Kier let the contract go, only for the customer to come back to Kier when the rival bidder's plans didn't stack up.

The reality is that Kier has raised the money it needed and is outperforming all of its peers in winning work and increasing its profit margin on each of the last four reporting periods. The pensions are in surplus. The new management team bought into the last rights issue with a very significant personal investment and Davies has share price increases as a performance target. Net debt at year end will be very small, although like everyone, I will be keen to see that it is definitely heading in the right direction and that the period of 'exceptionals' has finally come to an end.

This company consistently paid out over £50m in dividends annually up until 2018 and has committed to paying out a third of profits as dividends as soon as the business is on a sound footing. Davies put out a comprehensive description of Kier's inflation management strategy quite recently and claims that the business continues to trade profitably even in the current environment. We are just 18 days away from year-end and will get up an update on the full-year outcome probably next month. The market is very naturally pessimistic because Kier has not yet shown that it has fully recovered from the last management team's ineptitude, so when the numbers come, we could be in for a big reappraisal.

What is crucially important for this share though is its ability to win government-funded work. It looks as though we are about to enter another recession and Kier's shareprice is already on the floor, but when the market sees that Kier is one of the few businesses which will continue to make profits from government-backed projects, while consumer dependent businesses go broke, I think we will see strong interest in the shares. Others here can ramp other shares and whinge and whine about Kier as much as they like, but the fundamentals will prove Kier's worth in just a few weeks.