Kier Share Discussion Threads

[blueclyde] 10/6/2025 08:36:55

I wonder if all these nuclear plants getting signed off will benefit Kier? Seems billions put aside to build them. Share price is absolutely crazy. We seem to be back to every day a UK company is being picked off. Surely Kier is close to be taken out at this ridiculous valuation.

[stdyeddy] 10/6/2025 00:42:19

But in happy news:



Kier preferred for £15m Cowbridge school build

The Vale of Glamorgan Council has named Kier as preferred contractor for its Ysgol Gymraeg Iolo Morganwg development.


Obviously that's easy for them to say.

[stdyeddy] 10/6/2025 00:37:21

I couldn't find the bond prospectus, but at the risk of causing mark to have a total misery-guts meltdown, I think the following might draw a line under this:



Extraordinary cancellation type: Special call.


So basically, I think they're uncallable unless Kier has a major catastrophe. Kier is probably stuck with these bonds until they mature. The bond issue enabled Kier to reduce the RCF by the same amount (£250m) so presumably they were spending more than 9% on the RCF. Just seven more coupons to go though.

[blueclyde] 09/6/2025 20:18:53

Think you are missing the point. As investors are paying above par for Kiers bonds it is showing there is demand in the market to hold them. People buying above par are taking a capital loss to hold them now. The amount of money it's costing Kier to pay the coupon on them and derivatives to hedge the currency risk is eye watering. Hopefully they can get them gone and that money hits the bottom line as profit and share holder returns.

[marksp2011] 09/6/2025 19:11:22

GuysPleaseIf the interest rate is 4% and you issue a bond at 8% eg risk free rate of 4% and a 4% premium for risk and rates then drop to 1% your bond will roaring up in price as the retrn is so good. It is purely mathsIf Kier trades well the required risk premium may fall.Whether a bond trades above, below or at par is a function of risk adjusted return.Does anyone know if the bonds are callable?. They may not be without paying stonking fees

[blueclyde] 08/6/2025 17:00:32

That is interesting! Yes if a bond goes to a premium it also suggests the interest rate on it is too high also. Which again means Kier should get the funds together to start paying it off or refinance at a lower rate. I see the UK spending review is this week. Who knows we may get a bounce from that if she hammers home the infrastructure part. Maybe a few big contract wins then start coming out on the back of it?

[itisonlymoney] 08/6/2025 16:02:30

btw, that bond is valued at almost 105% of its face value (no discount - a premium instead) which shows you what the bond market thinks about the security of a loan to kier and the return on the bond.

[itisonlymoney] 08/6/2025 15:56:50

yes, but that bond has 3 and 1/2 yrs to go. no indication so far that they are likely to buy it back/cancel it. i agree with mark - cldn't see why they issued it in the first place. an abundance of caution regarding working capital i think. they cld've got by with the RCF and now be completely debt free. perhaps easy to say now, when 2 yrs ago kier was still digging itself out of the debt hole, but i can't help feeling it was an expensive way to create financial headroom.

[blueclyde] 08/6/2025 12:11:49

Final dividend should be at least 4p a share. Things start getting a bit crazy when they pay that bond off the interest saving alone is enough to double the dividend without affecting the cash flows. And if you do not believe they will double the dividend when the debt is paid off then they will reinvest the money into the business which will turbo charge the profits so either way the share price currently looks ridiculous.

[deal2win] 08/6/2025 12:04:17

If he does crash the market's it's an ideal opportunity to top up I missed it last time

[itisonlymoney] 08/6/2025 09:10:56

total dividend for the yr will be 4 or 5% at this price. that is better than bank interest. plus the share price shld go up when the business starts reporting a 25% higher profit margin. the rise cld be quite sharp. am just hunkered down now hoping trump doesn't crash the markets again.

[blueclyde] 07/6/2025 15:26:37

I guess the difference with Kier is you can see the contracts being reported in the press each week. And if they have a handle on margins which they appear to do and if the contracts keep rolling in like last weeks £41 million contract then the dam has got to burst at some point.

[marksp2011] 07/6/2025 13:48:39

Sitting, waiting and doing nothing is the hardest part of being an investor

[blueclyde] 07/6/2025 13:45:43

Well it is just six weeks until the financial trading update. Maybe the market is awaiting the words in it that the results will be ahead of last year. Should also get the monthly cash figure confirmed. In the meantime probably just a case of watching the contracts keep rolling in and the hope that at some point it has to move significantly higher if they do.

[itisonlymoney] 06/6/2025 12:34:59

ubs RNS shows an increasing holding in kier.

[blueclyde] 06/6/2025 12:13:46

So if we take last years full year figure EPS and assume, zero growth in the order book / work load, zero margin growth, and zero growth in the cash position and apply a no growth multiple of 10 you get a share price target of 206p a share which shows how dire things are currently. Based on what the company are telling us 300p seems to be closer to fair value short term.

[tinkertraderxx] 06/6/2025 11:42:59

I think we feel some frustration / surprise at how slow the share price has been to react to the relentless good news coming out of Kier. Leaving the speed of the reaction to one side for a moment, what do we know?

Full order book and, as highlighted in the Capital markets update, the Property division high-margin profit is going to start growing YOY. We can expect significant revenue growth. How much?

They have signposted margin improvement to 4.5%.

The trend is to average month end net cash positive.

They have committed to 3x earnings cover on the dividend.

Where would these metrics realistically drive the share price and annual dividend in 12 months or 24 months time?

[blueclyde] 06/6/2025 11:08:27

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/kier-wins-walsall-town-centre-revamp.

Another big contract win.

[blueclyde] 05/6/2025 20:46:00

Yeah disappointing it did not go up much higher on the margin news that nobody will have seen coming. I see one of our main competitors Mace has seen a huge hit to profits as a job went wrong. Point being there is tremendous value in Kiers huge order book and if the price stays low someone will snap it up particularly now that margin increase shows how good quality it is.

[marksp2011] 05/6/2025 18:09:28

I will simply point out that we are at 170
yes, it is undervalued but, that won't correct in a week. So, chill.

[itisonlymoney] 05/6/2025 12:48:40

uk construction pmi is slightly ahead of forecast. still no impact on the shareprice.

[stdyeddy] 05/6/2025 10:57:15

And there you have it. Davies forecasts a 28% increase in profits, wheels out the entire Kier management team for investors an analysts; they go away and think about it, and once again, the share price goes down. Main index is up. Trump is off being a wholesale idiot on faraway lands, and still, solid concrete Kier gets no love.

[blueclyde] 04/6/2025 22:23:44

That UBS RNS is the HK hedge fund derivative being moved about UBS. Too early to tell the impact of the event from an institutional perspective. I was hoping to see some broker notes. One thing it did was answer a big question and now makes it a likely take over candidate was the margins. Investors are selling out of a lot of things with regards to the NI increase that's just kicking in. Thought it might affect Kier but margins are so strong they guided even higher. Must be one of the few companies doing that in this market out with defence. A high possibility in the meantime you wake up to a take over bid one morning.

[gerhart] 04/6/2025 20:31:21

Sorry not me Blue.

[itisonlymoney] 04/6/2025 16:39:56

rns just now; UBS has taken a stake in kier.