Kier Share Discussion Threads

[antrox] 05/4/2025 09:25:43

I was more optimistic about the short-term outlook, expecting a solid increase at the next earnings update. Now, a 3–4 year horizon seems like a very cautious assessment, but it makes sense to wait and see how government policy evolves and whether Kier can sustain its current growth. I just hope the share price doesn’t fall below £1.

[blueclyde] 04/4/2025 17:37:36

Nobody knows what the market could do short term. Just depends what your time horizon is. My personal opinion is that in the next 3 or 4 years Kier will accumulate its current market cap in cash and you are getting a nice dividend and buyback yield but who knows.

[antrox] 04/4/2025 14:13:52

I added more today and will add more next week to the new ISA.
Or should I wait a bit longer?

[blueclyde] 04/4/2025 14:00:10

I would not worry about what the US market does. It is going to correct and underperform over the next few years whilst the UK will do well. Investors have sold UK stocks every month for the last five years creating huge outflows. They will get destroyed as the US markets correct. It is for times like this we invested in the likes of Kier on a PE of 5 because it is cheap and you get paid a big dividend to wait. US stock investors paying huge PEs with no dividends and huge stock based stock compensation dilution the shares are about to find how price multiple expansion works in reverse.

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 13:24:22

US market opens soon. If this is a new 'Black Friday' the media will lay into trump over the weekend and because he's a spineless blubber ball, he'll be walking things back next week. Doesn't mean the market will accept it though. The biggest damage here is a loss of confidence in an orderly market. Investors no longer know which way is up.

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 12:55:14

Looking at both of those two events Kier was comparatively speaking, little affected, so that suggests that things are either different now, or the worst is over.

[ldavis] 04/4/2025 12:53:00

The Warwick contract might be good for Kier - but the project itself is a disaster in the making. It's been in the planning phase for over 5 years -phase 1 plans have only recently been finalised despite originally meant to have been finalised by end December 2023.
You would be hard pressed to find anyone outside of the central admin who has anything positive to say about the current plans.It looks nice on the architects drawings but is barely fit for purpose - and that is before they revise the plans to account for the increased costs since they originally started on it. There is insufficient usable space, most of the ground floor is taken up by a cafe and lecture theatre that isn't big enough for any of departments needs and compromises the load bearing capability of upper floors and means there is nowhere near enough low-vibration lab space.

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 12:52:16

Things may get ridiculous. The market took about two months to hit bottom when covid struck. After the Russian war started in Ukraine, the main index took about six months to hit the low point.

I agree with you about the over-priced US market. Those chickens are coming home to roost now -- it could be a proper tulip mania moment for the Americans.

[blueclyde] 04/4/2025 12:49:48

US equites need to correct 50 percent to hit fair value. There was nothing exceptional about the US that deserved to trade at double the price of other markets. UK stocks will be fine. You can see many UK stocks not moving today as the have bombed out enough. There will be plenty of private equity cash to step in if things get ridiculous here.

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 12:44:55

How much lower though beerbelly? The original Wall Street crash took weeks to finally hit bottom.

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 12:44:06

And business lined up behind trump because they thought he'd be good for business. They believed what he said, instead of looking at his record. The Americans have got the government they deserve. Scant consolation though. This is like a bank run, but on the world's largest economy.

[burbelly] 04/4/2025 12:42:59

Think it’s safe to say we are in a crash right now

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 12:32:25

Forget about the buyback -- as we all know, it's delegated to Peel Hunt and they're just using an algorithm to manage the buying. We could be looking at a market crash. All of it caused by uncertainty and loss of confidence due to trump. Pick your moment, load up and sit tight.

[blueclyde] 04/4/2025 12:27:43

They are allowed to buy back of to 25 percent of the average volume so hopefully they take advantage. Huge long term value can be created taking the stack back in on a PE of 5.

[stdyeddy] 04/4/2025 12:26:25

Huge sell-off in progress today. Main index is down 4%. My tip is short anything American, especially Harley Davidson. They will be ruined operationally and reputationally.

[burbelly] 04/4/2025 12:02:07

Maybe try a new algo of 25%😢

[blueclyde] 04/4/2025 11:13:55

Yep and Peel Hunt are executing the buy back with an algo set at the 10 percent of the daily volume.

[marksp2011] 04/4/2025 10:52:54

Guys,

For those who aren't aware. The BoD initiates the buy back mandate under a specific set of criteria and publishes it. They do not control the BB. They pay someone to execute within the published guidelines and under "best execution".

They are not allowed to control the BB it could be used for price manipulation.

[itisonlymoney] 04/4/2025 09:23:27

more reporting on the warwick project;



Kier has been named preferred contractor to deliver Phase 1 of the University of Warwick’s £700m plan to regenerate its campus with new STEM teaching facilities.

Mark Dady, managing director for Kier Construction Eastern & Midlands, said: “We are thrilled to be named as the preferred lead contractor for this prestigious STEM Connect Programme at The University of Warwick.

[blueclyde] 03/4/2025 16:41:10

That is a great find! Looks like it will turn into another huge project for Kier. The 10 billion order book is going to return more free cash flow than the entire market cap currently. US markets in turmoil means more cheap shares for the buy back. Daily price swings are irrelevant until the next news RNS.

[itisonlymoney] 03/4/2025 12:14:04

Kier wins first phase of Warwick's £700m STEM build programme

[blueclyde] 02/4/2025 11:36:50

The buy back is an algo buying back 10 percent of the volume per day.

[itisonlymoney] 02/4/2025 11:29:50

btw, yr also over-estimating peel hunt imv. do you really think they've factored in global economics into the share buyback task that kier has given them? they're charging kier a management fee and have put an algorithm in place. maybe a human checks it daily. there's clearly no entrepreneurial thinking behind it.