Kibo Energy Share Discussion Threads

[swerves1] 24/7/2020 15:44

Today Katoro’s market cap increased to £6.8m, which means that Kibo’s 38% holding there is now worth £2.6m.
This is more than Kibo’s total market cap, which is only £2.54. A crazy situation...which can hardly last much longer!
Any positive news here and this should fly....imo

[otago1] 24/7/2020 10:04

Strip out value for katoro and mast and it seems no value attributed to African assets. Perhaps they are completely worthless but new buyers at this level getting a lot of value.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/7/2020 23:30

You have to wonder why someone reported posts and has them deleted from this board - must have touched a nerve? They don't want that info in the public realm of course, they are desperate to keep a lid on this share price

[lurker5] 23/7/2020 21:19

Just at the very time PlutusPowerGen (PPG) is getting out of the business - having lost a packet ! Brilliant.
Actual performance of PPG's six exactly similar plants (20MW - but same modular principle) over the 3 years they've now been operating has been less than 1/3rd the turnover they projected in their IPO a few years ago. And cash flows less than 1/4 - across the board and every year. No reason why Bordersley should be any better.
While LC didn't give all the necessary info to check, the NPV's and IRR he quoted for Med looks in line with those in PPG's projections in its own IPO. Wonder what figures LC will give - if at all ? Its unlikely the tie up with Statkraft will give Bordersley any better results than PPG managed to achieve - having been a public company for much longer than Mad will have been with access to more capital and a longer history in the power market beforehand. So no reason to disagree with those who see this as yet another gravy train for LC and his mates. As for River Group. Thery 'managed' the original IPO for Kibo, after which the shares tanked big time - and Mzuri's original shareholders (who had injected their mining projects into Kibo) all baled out. They knew their Louis it seems.

[lazygun] 23/7/2020 16:19

All of that is great, but I still think LC is the biggest stumbling block to kibo and Kat achieving success.

It’s the outline of the deal I’m annoyed at. No free shares to existing shareholders, 51% ownership Laos certainly LC is gonna line his pockets with another unjustified salary at shareholder expense in the new company, plus the board won’t be truly independent since kibo (is LC) can veto stuff at agm’s, and also call egm’s on critical decisions

Sucks big time, and I think market reaction echoes that sentiment.

What’s the betting that Sanderson will be involved in the funding?

I’m just glad I’ve only got a long spreadbet on kibo rather than the shares....
L

[yaki] 23/7/2020 12:41

quick few points on the listing of uk energy assets
-makes a lot of strategic sense as much lower discount rate will be applied to uk reserve projects than high risk/high potential return African projects; hence higher value to MED compared to <1m now
-having made the announcement - you would expect that KIBO has advanced significantly the funding side of UK Co
-no further dilution to KIBO to fund MED
-much clearer view of value, as is case with KAT

The key is at what price the IPO will be at. Given that they stated will retain 50% post funding, they can raise only 50% more shares pre funding.

If use Bordesley valuation we can come up with estimates of post funding market cap, new money and value of Kibo stake

I will run a few numbers later today

[edgein] 23/7/2020 10:37

PS KAT even more likely to get a good deal on that low AISC tailings project imo now that Au is approaching $1900 oz.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 23/7/2020 10:34

Bean,

Its a little higher than that. Its under £3m. But around £2m of that is made up of KAT shares (around 95m). So when you strip that off you're left with about £800k for UK assets and huge coal reserves in Africa (multiple projects, multiple countries). KAT will increase in value when it closes on its Blyvoor funding which is ongoing and has high demand (see their RNS releases). Now the UK assets of KIBO to get a main listing. LC hinted at $100m funding to simultaneously develop 20 sites. Upside on that alone is insane given the current cap here. Some of us have taken advantage of the last year to become fully loaded. Gonna be a very interesting end to 2020 on this one.

Regards,
Ed.

[bean02] 23/7/2020 10:27

323k market cap is preposterous. Added

[edgein] 23/7/2020 10:16

Awesome news, the market only values the UK power and African assets at around £800k at present. I bet 51% of this new co will be valued a lot higher than that after the main LSE lising. A great way to force the market to value KIBO properly. Looks like an interesting build up to year end with KAT financing expected before 30th Sept, MED to list in Q4 and also PPA's for Botswana expected before y/e too.

Regards,
Ed.

[swerves1] 23/7/2020 10:11

Something happening here? Any news and this could rocket from this price……

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/7/2020 10:05

Well well well... curveball

[uknighted] 20/7/2020 22:14

Hi tdc. I ignored your advice of a few years back and suffered the consequences. If only.......

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 20/7/2020 08:09

And anyone that knows their way around AIM knows that when you have faceless accounts queuing up to bash it that there's an ulterior motive otherwise why would they waste their time.

[the_debt_collector] 19/7/2020 18:31

All credibility in Louis Coetzee is lost, no wonder he stopped doing face to face investor presentations years ago. He dare not face the good folk who believed the story, they have now lost all.

Taking a football scenario he has moved from the Premier League to a amateur Sunday League pub team never to return to the heights - the only hope here is a change of management.

Bucket shop brokers used by Kibo tell all you need to know...

Xcap (bust) Hume Capital (bust) Beaufort Sec (bust) Novum Securities (woeful reputation)

[swerves1] 19/7/2020 13:44

Divmad - lurker might have been correct with his analysis in the past when the share price was trading many multiples higher.But it's a completely different situation for anybody buying in now at these extremely low levels....and with a holding in Katoro that's almost worth the full current market cap.Recent or new holders could make big returns here imo on any positive news....and also sharing in Katoro's progress. The past is the past...I'm only interested in the future and making money from here

[hedgehog 100] 18/7/2020 20:22

Lurker,

I would add that even a small piece of a big pie can be very lucrative.

Remember 100-bagger Ramco Energy?
It's 2% share of the pie was worth $100s of millions.


"Dec 27, 1999,12:00am EST

Remp's roller coaster

... Stephen E. Remp, the expatriate American wildcatter who is chairman and CEO of the Aberdeen-based oil independent Ramco Energy ...

In a world of merged and integrated oil giants, Ramco is one of a dwindling band of exploration and production independents, companies whose fortunes can rise or sink on a single deal or discovery. Remp founded Ramco in 1977 on the back of the North Sea oil boom as an oil services and contracting business. It nearly collapsed when its main customer went bust and the price of oil crashed. In 1986 Ramco's stock sank from a 1984 IPO price of $1.08 a share to 12 cents. "I was bankrupt," says Remp, who saved the company by selling the contracting business. He went on to restructure Ramco as an upstream oil exploration and production company, although its oil services division, which specializes in anticorrosive pipeline coating and maintenance, remains its cash cow (next year its E&P business will finally begin to generate cash).

Lately Ramco's fortunes have been plunging again. As part of raising $77.5 million (at the time, 47 million) in new capital in March 1997, Ramco sold new equity stock at $17.60 a share. The shares briefly touched $19.60 in February 1997 before swooning to $3.20 in January 1999 on the back of lower estimates of Caspian oil reserves, Russia's financial crisis, a slump in oil prices and Ramco's earlier, failed bid for another oil company. Despite rising oil prices, a growing portfolio of assets and a debt-free balance sheet, Ramco shares languished at around $5.27 on Dec. 3. ...

Remp has a well-developed taste for politically volatile hot spots. His strategy is to get into a promising area before the big boys do--or after they've pulled out--and make high-level, local connections. His geologists reexamine the seismic data and secure rights to concessions. Remp then tries to bring in an oil major as partner to put up capital and technology to develop the reserves. ...

A few years and a few governments later, he snagged a 2.08% stake in the giant Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field in the Caspian. He got Pennzoil to fund his development costs. Ramco is part of an international consortium led by BP Amoco; its stake in the 4.2 billion barrel field is worth at least $400 million over 25 years. ..."




KIBO Energy boss Louis Coetzee reminds me of Ramco Energy's legendary dealmaker Steve Remp.

And who's to say that KIBO won't be the 'Ramco of the 2020s'.

[divmad] 18/7/2020 20:20

H100, lurker has been spot on with his analysis and methodology for Kibo for several years now. I continue to see no logic in opposing him even now. Kibo is an AIM lifestyle company run by a CEO who has failed to bring not even one project to full commerciality, in at least 3 different countries, over the last 5 years in which I have had the misfortune of watching and sometimes investing in.

[hedgehog 100] 18/7/2020 20:05

Lurker,

Please note the following from the 18th. December RNS:

"From this, we calculate the value of Kibo's equity share, after debt, the market value of minority interests and Kibo's share of the Developer's Premium is also considered."


18/12/2019 09:00 RNS Non-Regulatory Kibo Energy PLC Q&A Document LSE:KIBO Kibo Energy Plc

"Are NPVs attached to each project?

Yes, as part of the initial and ongoing economic feasibility assessment and financial modelling of each project, a key element is the assessment of the estimated inherent net present value ("NPV") of a project. In developing and operating large utility-scale power station projects, a 20-30-year view is required and forecasting the attributable cash flows over such a period is more of an art than a science. That said, cash flows can be valued for projects of this nature, utilising discounted cash-flow as a methodology to arrive at an NPV for unlevered free cash flow generated from Kibo's individual and combined power project portfolio. From this, we calculate the value of Kibo's equity share, after debt, the market value of minority interests and Kibo's share of the Developer's Premium is also considered. The most recent example of the foregoing can be seen in the First Equity Research Note as published over a year ago on 28 November 2018 and available on Kibo's website, which estimated the Company's combined projects' NPV at that time at US$1.9bn."




That said, I agree that there will be some dilution to KIBO, but the current discount to NPV is factoring in dilution of well over a thousand-fold: i.e. dilution of well over 100,000%.

I.e.:-

KIBO's market cap at 0.225p is £2.912M. (1,294,490,188 shares in issue).

KIBO's stake in KAT (96,138,738 shares) is worth £1.875M. at KAT's current share price of 1.95p.

That means that the value being attributed to KIBO's non-KAT assets is just £1.037M.

For projects with a combined net present value (NPV) of about £1.5 billion.

[edgein] 17/7/2020 12:15

Clock,

you fully loaded here too? You reckon its gonna be KAT first (KIBO circa 95m shares) followed by Baobab PPA followed by Bordersley?

Regards,
Ed.