Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 22/3/2019 22:38

And your point ?

[murraybasin] 22/3/2019 22:19

9.5m shares? Instead of looking for what's not there talk to someone you know in the brokerage business (!) who knows what is going on.

Overall resources are looking down because of the Fed pulling back, weighing in on growth. They have themselves between a rock and a hard place balancing monetary policy with the welfare of capitalists.

I have updated numbers on the MSC product and tonnage. Haven't had time to blend that into my model yet. However, will lift 2019 EBITDA a-o-t-b-e. Irrespective, expect feed-stock prices to go up through Q2/Q3, marginally, not significantly. That suits us.

Too many side shows going on here and not enough people who know the business.

[donkey40] 22/3/2019 18:14

Bigger barge needed then - to drive down costs. Was that ever mentioned in the expansion plans at CMD or since? Don’t think so.
As I posted before - or implied - CMD was a waste of space. More of the activity based effort that reads well and ticks boxes for good keeping busy governance... So far.

I am still looking for that supportable reason as to why this party has not yet started. It’s like the VIPs just don’t want it to happen yet .... Why?!

[caposoka] 22/3/2019 18:03

predictive text... three cycles, if multiple bulk carrier, wait their turn... back to school for me.!!

[caposoka] 22/3/2019 18:01

Donkey, the load out jetty, conveyor system et al runs at 1,000t per hour (ie max 24kt per day). Bronagh's capacity is 4kt. The Peg is 1.5kt. The two together, doing two cycles a day can do to 11kt per day, more if the operational cycle is shorter, ie hree cycles per day. Production of 1.2MTpa is 100kt per month, so the capacity is there. An issue may arrive in multiple bulk carriers needing loading in a short time, say after a cyclone but then they simply have to wait there turn.

[donkey40] 22/3/2019 16:37

But there might be and we just don’t know coz it has never been mentioned ...
And interesting that Base will truck their product by road to port some (I think) 60kms... That’s a lot of trucks, jobs, ancillary services....

[murraybasin] 22/3/2019 14:20

2 barges in use. Bronagh J (self powered) and Sofia III (tug powered). AFAIK there is no constraint on shipping relative to the target mine output.

[donkey40] 22/3/2019 14:12

Thanks Cap. Yes these are the limitations on loading. So is there any way to approx determine what Shipping capacity of product presently is? To see if there is a ceiling limit in terms of tonnes shipped per annum, or capacity utilisation of the related infrastructure ?
I would be pretty sure their isn’t, but just curious. How many barges in use - 2 or 3?

[caposoka] 22/3/2019 12:53

Donkey, I looked at this some time back. Limitation is with the vessels not the jetty due to time needed to load, sail, unload and return means multiple vessels can run the cycle. Assume two cycles per day per vessel x capacity of each vessel to get somewhere close.

[donkey40] 22/3/2019 08:51

Any thoughts on the shipping capacity from Moma (since you answered pretty much everything else but that) ....

[murraybasin] 22/3/2019 01:27

"wheniamfree" is quoting (or coincidentally mentioning the same quote as) "Nickel_Investor" from LSE. Of course, in both cases, misunderstood (or deliberately misquoted) entirely out of context.

He knows pretty much f--k all about the reclassification issue either. I'm fairly close to that one myself.

The posted link:

hxxps://www.european-coatings.com/Markets-companies/Classification-of-titanium-dioxide-decision-postponed


If you sniff salt, or coke, as is likely with some of these idiots, the psychological impacts are like to be worse ...

[murraybasin] 22/3/2019 01:14

“although current prices are profitable for Kenmare, they largely remain insufficient to fund the development of new projects”

I'm fairly sure I saw this posted by a different poster over on LSE too. Someone possibly looking to upset the apple cart?

What is communicated here is that KMR can profitably mine at this price level and generate significant cash (close to $100m EBITDA p/a), probably more for FY 2019 due to the additional MSC product stream.

On the other other hand, the current market prices represent a barrier to entry for /competition/ because they wouldn't generate sufficient cash to fund new or enhanced operations.

Whatever you think about Alba or Jay, look forward to needing capital of $500m to $750m to get to an operating mine. On Jay, who probably can't borrow at that level, their existing shareholders are in for a serious shock. I'll be shocked if they can raise the funds given their current status.

It is understood that ilmenite needs to be hitting above $220/t FOB to be an inducement for new projects. It's not there yet, so KMR is continuing with a healthy ~38% margin on product whilst brown-field competitors do not have the prices that can lead them profitably to market. The margin is expected to increase from 2019 onwards.

Kenmare is sitting in the sweet-spot. If prices hit those inducement levels, our margins will go through the roof, but we will also have new competition. However, we will be better placed to compete on price and with our volumes (7%+ WW) can do a lot to keep lower margin competition out of our way.

This is the issue that BlueJay and Alba now face. Especially in the case of BlueJay, their current investors will be asking themselves if the emperor has any clothes. There was the whole stupid 'slip up' regarding the RT news release/web site update. Don't think anyone with a brain cell bought that one.

[donkey40] 21/3/2019 18:26

65% ilmenite; 35% zircon / rutile. That makes this one very attractive. Sadly KMR doesn’t come so close on those metrics.

I starting to wonder what the shipping capacity at Moma is. And how much that capacity shaped the decisions around production expansion to 1.2mtpa.

[wheniamfree] 20/3/2019 14:59

We are here to talk about Kenmare.

Let’s not change topic.

[donkey40] 20/3/2019 13:21

How is your other share price doing? Are we having a goose v gander moment... At least please maintain a level of consistency in your opinions or posts. Good man!

[wheniamfree] 20/3/2019 11:52

Whatever you say donkey, share price is doing the talking.

[donkey40] 20/3/2019 11:45

But don’t take my word Windbag - see what the industry feedstock giant is saying.

Executing projects to mitigate effects of emerging supply deficit;
Disciplined approach to capital allocation and sustainable product pricing;
Challenges - high grade TiO2 market tight with limited feedstock through chain;
Structural deficit continues to emerge;
Quality long-life high grade deposits are limited;
Addressing the deficit - read and weep;

Now can we move the dial and the conversation to the real issue with KMR currently, as we will humour fools only for so long....

[donkey40] 20/3/2019 11:02

Windy - I’m guessing you read this but, as observed by your comments on another stock, you just failed to understand the significance. I am probably more inclined to follow the lead of Sir Jim’s interest and money here than your silliness. And believe me - you are silly!!

[plat hunter] 20/3/2019 10:43

Still within a trading range of a base even if I wasn't expecting it go below 200, watching for 182 now. Any strengthening and support above 182 is a good sign imo.

[wheniamfree] 20/3/2019 10:08

Can see the reclassification of TiO2 also coming to a head soon too.

Those who stated it would never happen may be about to have their eyes opened. KMR primary output is the feedstock to such product.

A reclassification will be felt through the commodity market and likely to cause a downspiral in pricing ahead of a cyclical downturn.

Are KMR hedged against such outcomes? I doubt it, they obviously felt concerns having raised it as a risk in historic RNSs - head, sand, buried?

[wheniamfree] 20/3/2019 10:03

“although current prices are profitable for Kenmare, they largely remain insufficient to fund the development of new projects”

Pay off resultant from the recent court case.

Cyclone is just the tip of the iceberg.

Looks like those with any sense are running for the hills, 190p and falling. Don’t see this going anywhere anytime soon.

[libertine] 20/3/2019 09:41

20 March 2019

Update following Cyclone Idai

Kenmare Resources plc (LSE:KMR, ISE:KMR), which operates the Moma Titanium Minerals Mine in north-eastern Mozambique, provides an update following Cyclone Idai, which has impacted central Mozambique and other parts of southern Africa.

The Moma Mine has not been impacted materially by Cyclone Idai. The on-site team activated the cyclone preparedness plan to ensure that the Company’s employees and assets were protected, and production continued without any significant interruptions. Product loading activities and shipping were suspended for seven days, however they resumed on Friday 15 March 2019, as sea conditions improved. Kenmare continues to receive grid power as the power network in northern Mozambique was not affected by the cyclone.

Kenmare is deeply saddened by the news of loss of life and scale of damage, and is providing financial support towards the relief effort in Mozambique. The Company’s employees have also initiated a collection scheme to provide clothing and dry goods for the people impacted by the cyclone.

[libertine] 20/3/2019 08:19

hxxps://www.miningreview.com/east-africa/how-has-mozambiques-mining-sector-fared-against-cyclone-idai/

[donkey40] 20/3/2019 05:57

This article got me wondering about portfolio performance in pre / post Brexit world. Not saying it is a reason to not perform pre Brexit but ...it’s a funny old world currently.