Keller Share Discussion Threads

[tudes100] 24/9/2015 22:27

More evidence of strong US construction sector -
"Sales of newly built homes reached the highest level since early 2008 in August, evidence that demand for housing is strengthening heading into the fall.

Sales of new, single-family homes rose by 5.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The reading was well above economists’ forecast for a rate of 515,000 and comes after July’s reading was revised up to 522,000 from an initially estimated 507,000". WSJ

[thorpematt] 21/9/2015 20:29

Adam,
A couple of points I'd make:-

1. From the update in May
Trading
Year-to-date contract awards, however, have exceeded revenue, as a result of which the order book has increased since we last reported. At the end of April, the value of the Group's like-for-like order book was slightly ahead of last year, despite a substantial reduction in Australia.

Accordingly, the Board believes that the Group's results for the full year will be in line with current market expectations, albeit more second half weighted than normal.

2. From the August update
Outlook
After a slow start to the year caused by harsh weather conditions in the US and delays on a number of major projects, performance has picked up in the second quarter. Order intake has been healthy and the Group order book at 30 June was 5% up on the same time last year.

While conditions remain challenging in many of the markets in which we operate, the recovery in US construction, the Group's largest market, remains robust and broad-based. This, together with the benefits from improvements that the Group has implemented, means that the Board remains confident that the Group's results for the year will be in line with current market expectations.

-----------
I'd concur that ut looks cheap. I think this is a proven quality outfit and I like the exposure to north America also. The chart however is pretty dire..so it's not all good.

[tudes100] 20/9/2015 12:16

Big seasonality - H1 last yr 27.9p, FY 75.3p (approx 37% in H1).
TY - H1 31.1p, my FY forecast (morningstar) 84.5p. H1 = 37%.

[adamb1978] 19/9/2015 22:00

Trading multiple looks cheap however can someone explain to me how market forecasts are achievable:

H1 EPS: 31.1p
Consensus forecasts for 15: 88.2p

Can someone eplain how they'll do 57p in H2?

Thanks

[tudes100] 03/8/2015 10:35

Was a little nervous about the results given last cautious IMS but strengthening US construction sector and strong US$ is more than filling any O&G related profit gaps. FY16 forward PE 11.2x, looks good value still imo.

[thorpematt] 03/8/2015 09:45

TS look pretty optimistic. Improved margin and pipeline looks strong.

Obviously Europe, Aus not great outlook but USA is a nice place to have your biggest market right now IMO. I think 2016 will again be about the US driving the global economy(China having one or two growing pains).

[tudes100] 28/5/2015 01:02

Good to see the new CEO weighing in with a £100k purchase this week. He has an excellent pedigree, ex RR Ops Director. share price now close to year high which looked unlikely after last cautious IMS.

[mike740] 09/4/2015 10:29

KLR Keller

Broker Views..........some healthy targets.

Date Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

17 Mar 15 Berenberg Buy 995.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 Reiterates
04 Mar 15 Numis Add 995.00 - 1,220.00 1,200.00
02 Mar 15 Investec Buy 995.00 1,420.00 1,420.00 Reiterates
23 Jan 15 Liberum Capital Buy 995.00 - 1,200.00 Reiterates

[mike740] 09/4/2015 09:51

KLR Keller

Coming off a double bottom and MACD just turned positive. Fundy wise looks cheap on a forward P/E of just 9.6 which is historicaly conservative.



Keller Group PLC

FORECASTS

2015 2016
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Peel Hunt LLP
02-04-15 BUY 100.02 94.98 29.00 115.48 108.92 34.00
Investec Securities
06-03-15 BUY 94.00 82.10 26.49 105.00 92.05 27.81
Numis Securities Ltd
04-03-15 ADD 100.80 90.80 27.70 112.60 101.40 29.90
Westhouse Securities
09-10-14 BUY

2015 2016
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Consensus 100.40 90.80 27.70 114.09 101.40 29.90
1 Month Change -0.01 0.00 0.00 1.49 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change 0.72 -3.68 -0.12 6.30 0.13 1.06

GROWTH
2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Norm. EPS 34.08% 15.63% 11.67%
DPS 5.17% 13.52% 7.94%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2014 (A) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
EBITDA £148.90m £155.88m £171.85m
EBIT £92.40m £104.10m £114.90m
Dividend Yield 2.50% 2.84% 3.06%
Dividend Cover 3.22x 3.28x 3.39x
PER 12.44x 10.76x 9.64x
PEG 0.36f 0.69f 0.82f
Net Asset Value PS 223.28p p p

[tudes100] 01/4/2015 04:56

Interesting RNS's yesterday.
150k share sale from CEO's wife usually a concern but given end of financial year tax planning and the fact CEO has exercised another 170k shares in the last month (of which he's sold 80k) I don't think we need to worry too much.
More interesting is the 2m additional shares bought by Schroders on March 13th when share price was very similar to current price increasing their holding by 60%. Suggests they see good value at this price.

[rochdae] 02/3/2015 12:24

Too cheap in this market ..

[puffintickler] 02/3/2015 10:19

Looks good, just clicked into profit, I prefer blue to red.

[thorpematt] 02/3/2015 08:44

So PBT was lower than anticipated and EPS missed narrowly BUT cash conversion was strong which has meant the net debt reduction was higher.

Apert from the large chunk (priced in) the other exceptionals were very low considering acquisitions etc.

Outlook looks OK to me Australia obviously gonna be hardest to catch a like for like increase.

[meijiman] 02/3/2015 08:43

Very solid indeed. Ive given it a fast read and it looks better than I expected. The outlook statement reads particularly well IMHO.

[mike740] 01/3/2015 14:16

From iii

Monday....


Ground engineering group Keller (KLR) will release its final numbers at the start of the week. Peel Hunt analysts say US trade, currently the key driver for the engineer, will be benefiting from improving markets as well as the exchange rate movement. Activity in Asia and Africa is also thought to be improving.

"The shares are trading on 10.6x price/earnings (P/E) for 2015E and c5.4x EV/EBITDA, small premiums to the long-run average; this is more than justified given the point of the cycle the business is in," says Clyde Lewis at Peel Hunt.

The broker expects earnings per share (EPS) to come in at 77.2p and a 16% reduction in net debt to £121 million. It has a 'buy' reccomendation on the stock and a 1,330p target price.

[tudes100] 27/2/2015 02:33

Great week so far, don't have enough unfortunately to justify selling down a % before Monday. Hopeful outlook statement will be strong and that dollar strength has fed through to some excellent numbers.
Worth remembering Berenberg and Liberum both confirmed target prices of £12 in the last 6 weeks.

[meijiman] 26/2/2015 16:49

Let's hope so. I have the results down for Monday 2nd. Did think about selling but decided best to hang on and see what the results are like. Think their outlook statement should be decent enough given recent orders. Hopefully put this legal issue behind them.

[puffintickler] 26/2/2015 16:24

Just about break-even on my current holding, that's a relief as it is a biggish chunk of my portfolio. Still some more to come as well I believe.

[mike740] 12/2/2015 13:26

KLR Keller breakout on the chart, momentum on the up, forward P/E of 9.5 PEG 0.42 far too cheap in my opinion.

[tudes100] 12/2/2015 11:05

that share price target looks a little more realistic this morning

[mike740] 12/2/2015 10:08

12 Feb 2015 Keller Group PLC KLR Numis Buy 917.50 906.50 1,070.00 1,070.00 Reiterates

SP TARGET 1070p

[al101uk] 11/2/2015 15:10

Another £30 million set aside for litigation settlement. Just wonder how much will be covered under insurances now.

I guess it draws a line under the matter, expecting so see some short term pain as a result though.

[thorpematt] 03/2/2015 13:36

Nice. I bought in here of late, a little price weakness got the order filled and at the present price it looks rather cheap for such a good quality company.

I am thinking that once the resistance on the chart @circa 925 - 940 is cleared then we could see some swift upward price action.

[ih_500869] 03/2/2015 12:26

KLR Keller bouncing off the floor of the of the uptrend bullish channel 1st target 945p then breakout through ceiling.

[mike740] 23/1/2015 08:17

23 Jan 2015 Keller Group PLC KLR Liberum Capital Buy 920.00 920.00 - 1,200.00 Reiterates

SP TARGET 1200p