Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[estseon] 24/1/2020 10:51

Rio

fair enough.

Personally, I think that copper demand is bound to increase with increased dependence on electricity.

[outlawinvestor] 24/1/2020 10:20

Yep, 81.6m. My guess is most of it is held on behalf of clients in non-leveraged positions but a good portion is to hedge the c. 12m held in CFD/Spreadbet positions.

[jlwilliams] 24/1/2020 09:59

more than 81m shares? really? or am i reading wrong

[robjm66] 24/1/2020 09:55

5. Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached
10/01/2020
6. Date on which issuer notified (DD/MM/YYYY):
20/01/2020

News two weeks out of date though it does confirm big speculation on Kefi, a bit mad that such a big chunk of a company can be held by Spreedex.

[goatherd] 24/1/2020 09:55

Spreadex do not take positions. Their clients do, and they hedge that.

[keelhauled] 24/1/2020 09:35

Spreadex: they have taken a position, and we longs are trading on their side not against them. Keel

[riotinted_specs] 24/1/2020 09:33

Doubled again when adding more resources from KEFI pegged Nubian shield lands.

[riotinted_specs] 24/1/2020 09:31

Thanks for this Estseon, I believe the operating costs you plucked out of your head are rather high. If we say those costs half then the NPV would be near 150% larger. Add to that a higher impending copper price, and it's conservatively doubled. IMHO

[estseon] 24/1/2020 09:16

Rio,

Kefi won't be mining the copper in 18 months' time though they might be getting ready to harvest the gold to help pay for it. If the full mine including processing plus exploration (capital costs) comes to $500m (convenient figure for the arithmetic), the capital cost/tonne of copper equivalent will be $1,000.

If it is a 20-year mine, the average DCF discount will be about 50% at the 8%pa discount rate used for TK. So the NPV of the cash flows might be (6000-2000) x 50% = $2000/tonne less capital cost/tonne = $1000/tonne NPV at commencement of production. I have assumed $2000 operating costs, which is a figure plucked out of the air.

That is how I got to $1000/tonne.

A higher price for the minerals might be plugged into the DFS, anticipated operating costs might be lower and the capital cost of the hard rock mine might be both significantly overestimated and might be further reduced by cheaply harvesting the weathered gold from the overlying rubble but I think that we will have to wait for Jeff Rayner to produce further figures.

Hawiah is one of a number of such deposits over the trend and Kefi has applications for further exploration licences in that trend so the future value of the company will be based on more than the 2 projects, TK and Hawiah.

[molatovkid] 24/1/2020 09:09

Saudi buyout coming here.....pocket change even at double the market cap....and then keep loads of lovely copper to themselves

[molatovkid] 24/1/2020 07:42

If KEFI have hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper this will get taken out I reckon.

[oilisgold] 24/1/2020 06:42

You now got traders here worrying about few percent. Think how those felt for 7 years that had invested over 50k and had written it off. Hence in AIM its true only few winners.

[oilisgold] 24/1/2020 06:40

I am sticking to Monday as its 18days. Back in 2013 myself and Few other posters recommended this share to many. Unfortunately political problems in Ethiopia for 3 to 4 years meant share price kept going South. Share consolidation didn't help and most LTH were sitting on a 90% loss before many of us averaged down recently. Still a long way to go but its a good start. Company will rerate as take over offer rumours start and some big players start buying in. SOLG was in a similar position .
Yes, AIM shares can change your life but only if you keep faith and invest in a good company.

[oilisgold] 24/1/2020 06:33

18 days it takes in Ethiopia for the internal duel diligence to be completed. Which i make Sunday this week. So ANS will inform Harry the money has been transferred. So likely Monday RNS stating first funds have now been released by ANS or Wednesday/Thrusday confirming funds in account.

[riotinted_specs] 23/1/2020 22:25

I got copper at $6,200 per tonne and given supply deficit an I as well as many others could see it comfortably rising to $7,500 and KEFI get roughly 40% of this and I just don't think it is going to cost much to get out of the ground. The US stock market is dramatically overheated and I firmly believe there will be a move to gold of which an investor would get 6x his return in investing in a gold mine versus the bare metal. And there is ALOT more gold in then there Arabian Nubian shield Shazam there is my 40p and as Ollisgold says we are all rich.

[sweetwaters] 23/1/2020 21:48

Thanks Esteon. Good to see you're still around these parts. It would appear you also have a wicked sense for tortuous experiencing like myself. Confetti indeed, you hit the nail on the head.

[estseon] 23/1/2020 21:00

Rio: I love your 40p/share...

Aggregating the TK pit + underground + Guji-Komto and assuming $2000/oz and then adding to that Hawiah at 500,000 tonnes copper equivalent (100% - Kefi has 37%) valued at $1,000/tonne in situ it is possible to get to 40p (assuming no more confetti parties) but within 18 months...?

Dominic Frisby writing in MoneyWeek yesterday cited Ross Norman (London Bullion Market Association forecaster) as forecasting a high for the price of gold over $2,000 in H2 2020 so things could get quite exciting later in the year if that happens and especially if it coincides with the release of a Hawiah JORC. In that case, assuming construction of TK in progress without any hitches, we could see 10-15p/share but I think that we may have to set our sights lower pre-commencement of production unless the price of gold goes completely bonkers. Guji-Komto could add 5p at that price of gold assuming no further dilution of our interest.

[riotinted_specs] 23/1/2020 20:54

Well I for one like your commentary and you absolutely do seem to know what you are talking about. So why 99% chance of Monday at 7am ANS monies will be confirmed?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/1/2020 20:47

2M buy at 1.80p
2M buy at 1.81p

The share price should open up in the morning.., and the journey has begun.. :o)
ANS funding next to cement the deal..

[oilisgold] 23/1/2020 20:19

Been in AIM since the start. Health isnt there anymore. Just passing time untill the end of my innings

[oilisgold] 23/1/2020 20:18

Specs, there is a pattern. Every 18th days. I been posting on these boards gor a long time. I post on LSE boards a lot but using different id. Have normally the most recommended posts every week.

[scars] 23/1/2020 20:08

H is definitely trying to get the share price up, every 2 weeks a positive rns but it is still struggling! Trust maybe!