Kape Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 21/1/2020 11:20

MartinC, I know what you mean, but you have to credit KAPE with the nous to make such an earnings-enhancing acquisition, and the terrific EPS growth is what we have to work with.

Even if you ignore the PEG, the current year P/E on Progressive Research's numbers is still only 11 based on 15.1p forecast EPS.

[blackfinance] 21/1/2020 11:05

nw99 - mmm, seems a bit extreme...but who knows!!! Being out of the market has a cost as well, but never the less an interesting call.

[nw99] 21/1/2020 10:09

The virus In China have sold most of portfolio in case

[blackfinance] 21/1/2020 09:59

nw99 - "Top sliced" .... really? It was "blue skies" for you yesterday, pray tell why the change? The whole market is down today....not just KAPE.It's only my opinion of course, but being in and out on pennies is no way to make the big money.

[nw99] 21/1/2020 09:54

Top sliced

[blackfinance] 21/1/2020 09:19

SEV22 - Would you care to expand on your thinking re value (genuine question)?

[martinc] 21/1/2020 09:18

A PEG can't be meaningful when it's the result of a one off acquisition can it?

[rivaldo] 21/1/2020 09:11

On Progressive Research's numbers the current year P/E is only 11 based on 15.1p forecast EPS.

With 196% forecast EPS growth from 2019 to 2020 the PEG is a ludicrously low 0.06! A PEG of 1 is normally deemed pretty decent value, and anything below that is very good news, so as for a PEG of 0.06....

[sev22] 21/1/2020 08:25

Based purely on the numbers in the trading update yesterday, and the colossal rise in the last month or so, this looks fairly valued to me at present.

[tomv33] 20/1/2020 22:22

Was hoping for more than that

[gswredland] 20/1/2020 17:12

200p nailed by the end of this year

[martinc] 20/1/2020 14:46

21.1c= 16.6p to save everyone else rushing to check that.

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 14:03

Progressive's forecasts are higher and are as follows:

this year : 19.6c EPS
next year : 21.1c EPS

[flagon] 20/1/2020 12:49

Progressive Equity note out. No changes to forecasts but reiterate 2020E & 2021E of PE's 10.5 & 9.8 respectively. Kape have done well since announcing the PIA acquisition last November ... I see that as just the start. GLA

[ayl30] 20/1/2020 11:15

Yes ST is a fan here so should by crowing about the news. I bought at 111p so happy to hold

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 11:03

N+1 Singer are joint brokers so have updated this morning but as policy don't have target prices etc.

Here's a couple of extracts - they forecast 16.2c EPS tfor this year (2020):

"Rapid growth confirmed

Kape have announced a full year trading update confirming the expected strong growth in top-line and adjusted EBITDA. Kape’s sales growth accelerated sequentially to 19% h/h in H2 (H1: 7%), supported by continued growth in the Group’s core Digital Privacy segment. Full year revenues of c.$66m (N1S: $68.9m) were achieved after some reallocation of marketing investment towards Digital Privacy (sales recognised over time), which has in turn led to an improvement in revenue visibility for future periods.

Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be ahead of expectations: ($14.5m; N1S: $13.9m) as a result of a higher than expected proportion of Digital Privacy sales.

Management guidance targets revenue growth of 85% and adjusted EBITDA growth of >150% in FY’20E (inc acquisition of PIA), in-line with expectations, and we make no changes to forecasts at this time. FY’20E OpFCF yield is forecast at 5%, ahead of comparative high-growth peers."

"Impact on earnings & valuation

Management guidance for revenues of $120m - $123m and adjusted EBITDA of $35m - $38m (inc acquisition of PIA) is in line with previous forecasts, and we make no changes at this time. Unit economics in Kape’s core market are attractive, and we see a number of supportive trends which have the potential to push positive returns higher still: 1) Market consolidation and rising barriers to entry; 2) Price increases over time (Nord VPN and HideMyAss recently reduced discounts); and 3) Further improvement in retention rates. We see a blue-sky LTV:CAC of 4.0x as achievable (Current: 2.7x). The OpFCF story is building, with OpFCF yield for FY’20E of 5%, rising to 7% in FY’21E."

[mobtheplod] 20/1/2020 10:01

Looking forward to an update from ST. Expect another uptick after.

[nw99] 20/1/2020 08:18

Blue skies

[pleaty1] 20/1/2020 07:48

Anyone see pre Market prices

[johnwise] 20/1/2020 07:35

20/01/2020 7:00am

RNS Number : 2403A

Kape Technologies PLC Trading Update & Notice of Results

Kape traded strongly throughout 2019 with a focus on profitable growth. Adjusted EBITDA(2) is expected to be slightly above market expectations at c.$14.5 million (2018: $10.4 million),

[ayl30] 20/1/2020 07:26

Have held for a while, good to see faith in mgt being rewarded. Onwards and upwards

[rivaldo] 20/1/2020 07:24

Terrific stuff.

EBITDA slightly above expectations too. And a very confident outlook:

"We have entered 2020 in a very strong position, focused on driving earnings growth and maintaining our historic levels of strong cash generation, alongside maximising the positive impact of our acquisitions."

[adorling] 20/1/2020 07:20

Stunning trading update.

“The acquisition of PIA will be significantly earnings enhancing for Kape, and further bolsters the Group's SaaS operating model. Kape's user base grew to 2.35 million subscribers at year-end (30 June 2019: 1 million), comprising 74.3% organic growth within the privacy vertical not including PIA. Reflecting the growth in our customer base, Kape expects to deliver $98.8 million(1) in revenues from existing customers in future financial years, up 260% (30 June 2019: $38.0 million).

Kape traded strongly throughout 2019 with a focus on profitable growth. Adjusted EBITDA(2) is expected to be slightly above market expectations at c.$14.5 million (2018: $10.4 million), representing an increase of 40%, with revenues up 26% to c.$66.0 million, reflecting the Group's focus on customer acquisition investment towards the higher margin digital privacy segment. At the time of the PIA acquisition, the Group issued guidance for the year ending 31 December 2020, with revenues expected to be in the range of $120 million to $123 million and Adjusted EBITDA(2) between $35 million and $38 million.”

Well done Management!

[molatovkid] 20/1/2020 07:13

Now that is how you write an RNS.....excellent.

£2+ should be nailed on now.