K3 Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tomg23] 04/4/2019 21:10

Good to know. Thanks

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 21:04

My twitter name is the same as my ADVFN name - I don't post much on twitter as there is a lot of noise on there imo from a trading/investing perspective which is not very helpful

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 21:03

Never heard of that name - not me

[tomg23] 04/4/2019 20:55

you sound like tactition trader on Twitter. Is this you DavR0s?

[pireric] 04/4/2019 20:06

Each to their own on the fundamental analysis stuff, but fair enough. Makes a market!

I'll clarify to cash flow metrics as those things typically on very low single digit P/E are often highly highly indebted or don't generate cash flow :0)… or are considered to potentially be frauds. I'd be far more concerned if a stock I thought was great traded at, lets say a 10%+ cash flow yield for more than 2-3 months. Within that timeframe, can just be market-related factors. For longer than that, and normally something I'm missing

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 19:52

Nope as historical analysis shows that PE is a very poor indicator of future price. A PE of 1 normally means there is something wrong under the bonnet. I buy strength and sell weakness and hardly look at fundamentals nowadays. I rode this one up and added along the way and sold out when trend broke

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 19:49

Unless it halves at the open (!) which is quite rare

[pireric] 04/4/2019 19:43

At the point it becomes emotional to sell, i.e. "I want out at any price", then that's usually around the bottom.

Think we've seen an element of that. So, what happens if we haircut earnings for the year by 10%?

11.8p of EPS -> 13.5x P/E
Probably >£6m in cash so closer to 12x P/E even after a theoretical 10% profit warn.
For a business with very strong margins and ROI metrics. That has, historically, demonstrated very strong growth.
And then lastly on top, a business with exceptionally strong cash generation. 12x P/E for a capital intensive business can be 20x cash flow. Here, it's more like 13 - 13.5x, which is pretty damn cheap.

I strongly disagree that an in-line statement would lead to a share price drift from here. I'd expect a pretty material rebound (10%+ at an absolute bare minimum). This arguably already has pretty strong valuation support around here, even after factoring in a profit warning.

Without any semblance of profit warning, this is on 12x P/E, <11x ex cash, nearly 7% dividend yield, nearly 9% free cash flow yield

Also, surely you would Davr0s + it's a matter of price. if this was at 1x P/E, surely you'd buy it?!!

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 19:42

I never hold a share that halves in price regardless of the fundamentals

[dollythegoat] 04/4/2019 19:40

Apologies for being controversial but some of the posts on here are hilarious. Only focus on the real fundamentals. I suspect many of you haven't actually got a clue. Only my personal opinion but I'd rather burn my money than invest in this at this price or anywhere near it. Time will prove me either right or wrong. Make up your own mind. Will be interesting.

[its the oxman] 04/4/2019 18:15

Don't see anything sub 100p without a proper profit warning but if trading is just broadly in line with a flattish outlook then a steady drift to c.140-150p would hardly surprise.

[tomg23] 04/4/2019 18:15

Now everyone seems worried the bottom might be near. I'm selling all my other shares and backing up the truck tomorrow ?

[basem1] 04/4/2019 17:56

Bloody hell early June the share price will be 40p then they need to comment and quick about it.

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 17:56

It was a tongue in cheek comment. They won't imo issue a RNS for this kind of drop. The share was been in distribution and a drop of 70-80% from peak is fairly typical for this kind of share so its following a typical path once tend broken

[clanger66] 04/4/2019 17:01

If they know of something materially different from expectations it's a regulatory requirement to inform the market.I emailed the company on Monday to voice my concerns on the share price performance and lack of updates and was told: "As we stand, our next trading update is currently not due until early June, shortly after our financial year has ended and we have clarity on the result subject to audit"However I do think it's prudent that the company should comment on the share price performance as they've lost some 35% of market cap in a little over a month.

[basem1] 04/4/2019 16:48

Just re read the outlook statement from January. Definitely worth a quick read if you need your minds putting at rest. Seems like a domino effect at present the same thing is happening at KAPE lots of head scratching going on

[tommyharris] 04/4/2019 16:08

Starting to get worrying now.

[basem1] 04/4/2019 16:04

Exactly......that's the worry

[davr0s] 04/4/2019 16:01

Maybe they know something

[basem1] 04/4/2019 15:59

Should the company not be saying something. We know of no reason etc etc

[pireric] 04/4/2019 15:57

Few ad-hoc pieces of info suggest Knightsbridge is doing very well, the email template posted previously, but also the rate of trustpilot reviews hasn't abated

[mammyoko] 04/4/2019 15:54

Presumably, somebody knows something I don't. Why else sell a business with operating margin of 44% on a price to free cashflow of less than 12?

[mammyoko] 04/4/2019 15:30

leaky ship?