Just Share Discussion Threads

[charlie] 27/10/2018 13:04

The latest Eumaeus blog says

"You saw it here first. At 10:00 yesterday we published the news that the PRA had delayed..."

This was highly price-sensitive information. Eumaeus is, by his own admission earlier in this thread, an ex-official of the PRA. So why did he have this information before anyone else?

[charlie] 27/10/2018 13:01

>>To be clear, my purpose here is not to support longs or shorts

I believe this to be false. Eumaeus appears to be seeking to do maximum damage to longs of Just. Almost every one of his daily blog posts over the past 11 weeks appears directed to this end.

>>CP 13/18 and its predecessors were about capital *available*. Capital available is how much you have, not how much you need. It's a valuation issue, not a risk management one.

This point is disingenuous, and I believe you make it only to obfuscate the malicious nature of your campaign in relation to longs of Just. The practical effect of CP13/18 is that Just is likely to need to raise extra capital, which reduces shareholder wealth. It makes no difference to longs of Just whether this arises from a reduction in the valuation of available capital, or an increase in required capital.

[fez77] 26/10/2018 20:16

BURN SHORTERS BURN!

[qs99] 26/10/2018 14:22

Yes, but looks as thought from graph on research tree as though they upped it over last few months or so DYOR, but in that case share has been sub £1...?

[treer] 26/10/2018 14:20

doesn't their urgency depend at what their shorting price was?

[qs99] 26/10/2018 14:18

And IMO with a rights issue less likely, then the near 2% short from LP will need to unwind, IMO there just isn't that volume of stock around, but DYOR...bodes well for £1.20 again and onwards so have bought more today....GLA

[qs99] 26/10/2018 14:15

Moving along nicely today. Surprised no RNS from board....

[babbler] 26/10/2018 09:35

What's with the 1 then 1199 trades?

[babbler] 26/10/2018 09:31

Was tempted at 83 yesterday and this morning. Didn't have funds cleared in time. Now closer to 90. :(

[horndean eagle] 26/10/2018 09:29

Nice to see some follow through buying as a result of broker notes and comments. Whoever was selling aggressively yesterday afternoon seems to have gone for now. Although it did start in US hours so they may be back this afternoon. There were a lot of buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for the proposals. Now they are being kicked down the road it may be they are nibbling away. Im hoping trading statement will give the shares a real boost as I would hope management would comment on how an extra year would help on plugging any shortfall.

[babbler] 26/10/2018 09:11

Going well again today.

[18bt] 26/10/2018 07:19

Horndeam - it's a good guess. They have reduced LTVs - they say they are writing new business on CP13/18 basis, so that the exposure is only on the back book. This gives 1) an extra year to extract capital from the back book 2) which then reduces any capital strain by the capital extracted

[topvest] 25/10/2018 17:46

I agree that the PRA are acting irresponsibly. They are causing extreme volatility and capital issues for companies that were legitimately playing by their rules. People are losing or making large amounts due to their incompetence. Customers have also suffered. All because they haven’t thought through the implications of implying retrospective changes to their own rules at short notice...which is a great way to kill businesses. Well done the PRA 0/10.

[horndean eagle] 25/10/2018 17:31

Just are writing new ERM business on proposed changes put forward as part of proposals. My guess is they are reducing the LTV they are offering to those wanting to take the product. This will allow them to build a buffer and help plug any issues with the backbook

[lovat scout] 25/10/2018 15:54

668 - I’m not an actuary so I apologise for the incorrect use of terminology!

The point I was trying to make is that for JUST to continue writing ERMs with NNEGs it is likely they will need more cash ‘availableR17; in one form or another, which may end up being retained profits, equity or debt raised, depending on the final outcome.

No one has a crystal ball but in my view I suspect that all but the most draconian of outcomes will leave a large gap between the market price and NAV.

AIMHO etc

[eumaeus] 25/10/2018 15:11

667 "I suspect there will be more stringent capital requirements "

To be clear, my purpose here is not to support longs or shorts but simply to set out some of the basics. One of the basics is that CP 13/18 says nothing about capital *requirements*. Nor do the PRA have any plans to publish on the requirements front. Those stay the same, for now, as far as I know.

CP 13/18 and its predecessors were about capital *available*. Capital available is how much you have, not how much you need. It's a valuation issue, not a risk management one.

[lovat scout] 25/10/2018 14:55

CP 13/18 obviously created widespread havoc so kicking the can down the road was the only option available.

Reading between the lines I suspect there will be more stringent capital requirements but all involved will now have longer to negotiate and prepare. NAV will possibly be impacted eventually but there’s still an awful lot of headroom.

AIMHO DYOR etc.

[nav_mike] 25/10/2018 14:50

I guess Lansdowne Partners will now have to decide either to stick or twist re their short position.

They were actively increasing until 11.10.18 - so they do they start scaling back, or take advantage of the price spike to short from a higher level?

Cant help thinking its them that have dragged the price back today

[jane deer] 25/10/2018 14:48

18BT I think the delay is postive news but I would be shocked if JUST re-instated the interim div and would be surprised if they pay a full year dividend, if the PRA paper has not been published by end-Feb. Until the future capital requirement is clear, why pay out dividends before hand?

[scrapheap] 25/10/2018 14:45

Just raised their rates 0.1% again this week...

[18bt] 25/10/2018 13:22

So will they reinstate the dividend? May take a day to convene a Board meeting to decide... It’s at least another year of backbook profits contributing to capital. Seem to remember that’s c£35m pre-tax, but need to check

[horndean eagle] 25/10/2018 13:18

Profit taking kicking in. no doubt whoever hoovered up the 1m or so traded sub 80p cashing out a little. volume pretty low still. Would hope Just come out with something positive today. they could bring forward their t/s from next week and put it into that instead.

[qs99] 25/10/2018 12:37

well it was nearer £1.50-60 before the sell off due to these concerns, with a decent divi....let's see where it gets to but no reason IMO why the short squeeze at least for that 1.98% may push it back through a quid today? DYOR and lets see