Juridica Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 13/4/2016 10:55

nw99 - Don't believe he has published one.

[nw99] 13/4/2016 10:47

Any new target price please ?

[speedsgh] 13/4/2016 10:46

BUY recommendation reiterated yesterday by Simon Thompson on Investors Chronicle website.

[nw99] 13/4/2016 08:23

Looking good on the chart

[davebowler] 12/4/2016 11:20

Liberum;
Juridica Investments Ltd.
Two cases reach settlement

Event
Juridica Investments yesterday announced the settlement of two cases in the portfolio. Together, these cases represent $55m or approximately 43% of the last reported NAV of $126m (or approximately $0.49 per share) as of 31 December 2015.

One case has reached a definitive settlement agreement, which is expected to result in gross proceeds of $65m. The other has reached a partial settlement and while the case remains ongoing proceeds of $800,000 are expected as a result of the partial settlement agreement. The company expects that net proceeds (following deductions for tax and other reserves) will be received before the end of this year and will make a distribution to shareholders in an appropriate fashion.

Liberum view
The conclusion of these cases, especially the large final settlement agreement is a positive development for the company which announced a total comprehensive loss of $49.2m for 2015 (as result of revaluation losses) and a 31% decline in NAV for the year. The company is now in run off and will return capital to shareholders on completion of investments. The company's portfolio now consists of 14 active cases. Excluding the gross proceeds from the newly settled cases, the company has generated net cash proceeds of $222.4m and a 41% NAV total return from inception to 31 December 2015.

The share price climbed sharply following the settlement announcements, closing approximately 18% above the opening price reflecting strong buying interest over the day on the back of the news. The company is now trading at a 31% discount to the last reported NAV.

[nw99] 11/4/2016 20:39

Looks way to cheap

[spooky] 11/4/2016 16:53

Philjeans appeared to be very positive on a string of foreign stocks even after they had fallen apart, suspect he may be a 'cheerleader', either that or he is now very poor.

[maiken] 11/4/2016 16:38

How well I remember Philjeans relentlessly exhorting everyone to recognise the "cheapness" of Camkids....right up to and beyond the point where it was clear Camkids was a total fraud[literally so,for those not familiar with that notorious Chinese stock].Less experienced readers of bulletin boards might want to bear that in mind.

[cockerhoop] 11/4/2016 13:24

Many thanks

[jonwig] 11/4/2016 13:19

Yes I think so. (By the way, I'm no longer a holder, so I'm out of touch rather!)

[cockerhoop] 11/4/2016 12:34

Hi jonwig,

I hope you're well. Fairly new to JIL so please be gentle, but as I see it :-)

For the carrying value of the cases to be $55m, it appears that the largest antitrust and competition case has been fully settled which had a carrying value of 'over $40m'. This must seriously de-risk the remaining portfolio as well as being a decent uplift from it's carrying value.

The remaining partially settled case with a carrying value of $10-15m has returned $800,000 but is ongoing so has either under-produced or still has a carrying value of between 0-14m USD.

Are my assumptions reasonable?

[cockerhoop] 11/4/2016 12:09

Jonwig,

How is the partial settlement handled?

ie Have they received $66.8m against NAV of $55m for fully settled cases leaving (some currently unknown) NAV in the partially settled case?

[neilyb675] 11/4/2016 11:48

Very nice indeed

[spooky] 11/4/2016 11:37

Cash at or above current market cap. with other cases awaiting resolution.

[jonwig] 11/4/2016 11:34

But surely this isn't a windfall of $66.8m? The cases in question were valued in the latest accounts at $55m, so that's a gross uplift of $11.8m, from which will come tax and transfers. In other words, more or less in line with NAV.

The good news is that there's no erosion from these cases. And of course there's cash to distribute.

[guernseymoney] 11/4/2016 10:56

Very pleasing. Not sure what case it was and how it came in vs estimate, but hopefully get a nice div later on in the year, fingers crossed.

[speedsgh] 11/4/2016 10:55

Would've been nice if they could put a bit of meat on the bones. They haven't even disclosed the case numbers for the cases that they are referring to in their announcement (maybe there are legal constraints?).

From today's rns:
"These two case results represent approximately US$55 million of the US$126 million 2015 year-end NAV reported by the Company on 31 March 2016."

Are we to assume that the larger definitive settlement announced today relates to the following from the accounts?

"One of the two remaining cases in the antitrust and competition portfolio has the potential to deliver significant cash proceeds to the Company. After considering all possible outcomes in our fair value calculation (including potential for outsized returns as well as the potential for a loss), this individual case represents a carrying value of over US$40.0 million at 31 December 2015."

[philjeans] 11/4/2016 10:54

An extra $66M gross makes a mockery of the m/c here.

[philjeans] 11/4/2016 10:43

Excellent! A nice cash injection coming. Underlines the silly discount on the s/p.

Added again.

[nw99] 11/4/2016 10:37

Wow great news

[nw99] 04/4/2016 14:31

I've added more here

[speedsgh] 04/4/2016 13:42

Update by Simon Thompson on IC website today. Notes overreaction to Final Results + reiterates BUY rec.

[djderry] 01/4/2016 22:36

Thanks for post davebowler,a bit of an over reaction.It reminds me a little of the flapping of wings by vultures as they pick over the carcass of their prey!

[davebowler] 01/4/2016 09:32

Liberum;
Juridica Investments Limited
Portfolio revaluation leads to loss of $49m for 2015

Event
NAV per share fell 31% in dollar terms (28% in GBP terms) from $1.66 (107p) at 31 December 2014 to $1.14 (77p) at 31 December 2015. The reduction is due to a total comprehensive loss of $49.2m for the year, mainly as a result of revaluation losses.

Three portfolio cases came a conclusion over the year: in the first the result was favourable and while the judgment amount that was less than expected it resulted in a cash profit of $1.7m; in the second was the outcome was unfavourable ($30m write down at June 2015) but was still a successful investment, resulting in gross returns of $89.7m, a return of 3.4x the initial investment; the final case was settled and resulted in a return of $9.7m on an initial investment of $4.6m.

In November 2015 the company announced that the it would enter a run off phase, making no new investments, other than where funding of existing investment was required, and returning capital to shareholders on completion of investments. Prior to the decision to cease new investments, two new investments were made in 2015, one of $1.3m in a pool of technology patent litigations and one of $250,000 in a case involving a claim on misappropriation of trade secrets.

Liberum view
The adoption of the run off strategy in November 2015 was followed by an announcement on the review of fund costs in February 2016. Management fees payable to Juridica Asset Management Ltd. have been fixed at $3m for 2016 and $1.75m for 2017, amounts substantially less than would be due under the previous arrangements. The decision to enter run off is driven by the fact that the company as it is currently structured does not allow it the scale and complexity required to continue invest in the sector, the company does not allow reinvestment of returns and it has been unable to access significant capital.

As of 31 December 2015 the company's portfolio of investments consists of 15 cases, eight involving litigation, which will required ongoing management so the company is likely to continue in operation for some time to come. Five of these cases have already generated returns, totaling $155.7m, but remain active. Since inception the company has generated net cash proceeds of $222.4m, including the 5 active cases and 15 cases that have been brought to a conclusion that generated proceeds of $67.2m with a blended IRR of 20.27%. IRRs may not be reflective of the returns that shareholders ultimately receive, we calculate a 41% NAV total return from inception to 31 December 2015.

Despite over half of the loss for the year having been flagged in the interim results, the share price fell sharply, by over 18%, following the publication of the annual report; the company is now trading at a 44.5% discount to the 31 December NAV.