Juridica Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 18/11/2015 13:11

Common sense prevailing now as they recover from stupid over-reaction.

Bargain rating here now.

[konkel] 18/11/2015 12:56

I certainly would!....but the danger is they offer a discount to NAV tempting shareholders with a guaranteed payout and far quicker distribution. Let's see how it plays out.

[philjeans] 18/11/2015 11:43

True K - but I'd take 100p wouldn't you?

[konkel] 18/11/2015 08:53

Let's hope Burford don't come along and try to get it on the cheap...they'd only need Invesco and a couple of others on side.

[philjeans] 18/11/2015 08:46

Other cases have produced much more than they had suggested so it swings both ways!

Still a very good chance we'll see some big successes in the coming months.

Meanwhile an excellent income.

[jonwig] 18/11/2015 08:35

graham - just seen your post #779 - valid concerns. Also included in my last post.

[jonwig] 18/11/2015 08:34

konkel - about $46m of net current assets, yes. But I wouldn't expect this to be a free dip for shareholders: management charges aren't going away, and ongoing cases will need further funding to progress them.
You'll get 5p of it next month, though!

I'm kicking myself hard - knew the continuation vote would be a support at some point but with all these 500k, 2m sales going through saw no hurry. In hindsight, this move should have been obvious.

[grahamg8] 18/11/2015 08:33

jonwig I agree with your numbers, although perhaps we should deduct something for admin costs. So a decent chance of a profit from the current share price However lets remember 5009-S was on the books at $9.4m and only recovered $2.0m. Thus NAV is no more than educated guesswork on the part of management.

The elephant in the room might well be the same 5009-S where the hoped for return was around $140m ~79pps on its own. And I think this huge discrepancy finally brought about the raising of the white flag. There would need to be lots of cases being processed, and so need a much bigger company, in order to smooth out the winners and losers.

An earlier post suggested the case was lost; no sir. Quite the opposite, it was won but the damages awarded were paltry in comparison to expectations. Appealing the amount should be quite simple. But does 'no new investments' preclude paying for the appeal? If it does I would try to bring in a partner to pay the cost and share any uplift. But then I'm just a shareholder not one of the Directors.

[konkel] 18/11/2015 08:23

Peel Hunt just reduced TP to 70p (15% discount to est. NAV)

[konkel] 18/11/2015 08:17

Am I correct in thinking they have c.$46m in cash (so with 110m shares, that's 27.5p ps)? If so, I suspect there's very little downside here and maybe some surprises on the upside? It's like going into a casino and getting 2-1 odds on red!!

[jonwig] 18/11/2015 07:45

Phil - well, if you insist.

[philjeans] 18/11/2015 07:40

A div is a div is a div.

Worth sticking with - much more to come - costs slashed and all the profits straight to the share holders!

[jonwig] 18/11/2015 07:36

They've had arms firmly twisted by - mainly - Invesco, who realised they couldn't possibly divest their holding.
Effectively they are bringing forward the 2016 discontinuation.

The share price should rise some way towards the latest NAV, but actually realising that number won't be easy.

The "5p dividend" is no such thing: it's a down payment of their capital realisation plan. I see no way it can have been paid out of earnings.

[guernseymoney] 18/11/2015 07:32

Great news, am happy I topped up at 54p

[ammons] 18/11/2015 07:25

5p divi. Sign of confidence perhaps?

[philjeans] 18/11/2015 07:24

Good news again - that didn't take long!

Nice yield and the promise of very much more as cases close - and most close very successfully.

Glad to have topped up!

[my retirement fund] 17/11/2015 17:39

If there 10% odd to sell for Gifford this is going to have to go an awful lot lower

[jonwig] 17/11/2015 09:49

The stated NAV at 30 June was 86p. Ignoring currency and other effects, the fall in NAV implied by the latest announcement would be 4.2p. So let's say it's 81p as of today.

Superficially, you now have a 37% discount to that number.
I think my greatest concern would be that half a dozen institutions have significant stakes and when a fund manager decides to sell, he'll often want a complete exit.

There might be a case for holding if you're stuck, but I see no great rush to buy.

It's worth remembering that there will be a vote at the end of 2016 (it's every three years) on continuation or wind up. Wind up will be a bit messy, as ongoing cases probably need resolving rather than a messy fire sale.

[orchestralis] 17/11/2015 09:21

I think the drop was less about the recent case and more about the lack of visibility on divis.

[guernseymoney] 17/11/2015 09:05

Ditto - still a good investment case. Got to take the bad with the good.

[baracuda2] 17/11/2015 08:40

Me neither, will buy more as it will only take one good case and this will be back up. Better times ahead and who knows, there maybe be a successful appeal

[philjeans] 17/11/2015 08:28

Not selling - just b and b for tax. They're mostly still in.

I'm happy to average down - better times to come.

[djderry] 16/11/2015 17:19

Very disappointed,just under 50k euro invested here,as uncorrelated (to an extent) from the rest of the market.It's my fifth biggest holding so it's dented the portfolio.I don't invest more than 10% in a single co. so I'm not prepared to put any more in.Judging by the volume of shares traded,some of the fund managers may be getting out.I will hold and see how the co. is performing in a year.I think some of the clever lawyers should take a pay-cut too!!

[epistrophy] 16/11/2015 17:09

Some serious volume going through at 50p. Baillie Gifford exiting perhaps?

[hession] 16/11/2015 10:34

Regrettably, the inevitable absence of a divi this year will continue to depress the share price IMO.JIL were obviously optimistic about the likely outcome of this case but look what happened. Therefore positive updates mean nothing until a fat wadge is paid out to investors. Sorry lads, those of us still holding might have a very long wait before the share price recovers today's fall.