Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[neo26] 24/4/2024 08:49

If we get confirmation that they produced close to 20kbopd in q1 2024 and akatara will be up and runing by end of q2 then this should rerate.

[nigelpm] 24/4/2024 08:06

There's still three full trading days pughman.

[neo26] 24/4/2024 08:03

It gonna come soon.

[pughman] 24/4/2024 07:23

I was expecting a pre results RBL RNS, to try and engender a positive vibe going into Monday, but looks like it ain't going to happen.

[sea7] 23/4/2024 08:33

Dated 18th april 2024 short clip at akatara, not sure when it was filmed though

[mrscruff] 20/4/2024 23:05

Thanks MT, personally over the long run I would like an equal split between oil and gas like Serica but do understand the faster growth of oil alone including from an attractiveness for an investor perspective. With the cost of lending so high I would agree a partner would be best. JSE could do anything this year and I remain optimistic especially as the traditional holders like Baillie Gifford are out the net buying can now begin.

[oilinvestoral] 20/4/2024 17:44

Hi 1AJM The biggest abandonment cost is by far the wells , followed by the subsea infrastructure and lastly the FPSO. A few different factors would play a role in the exact split. The main one being the complexity of the wells & the subsea infrastructure. There are certain shallow water subsea wells that you abandon in a few weeks/ well. Deep water wells take a lot longer as it can take 3-6 days just to run & retrieve the BOP (without accounting for subsurface work). The local regulations in Australia will also play a role. Some regulators in certain jurisdictions will allow you some leeway when it comes to the final abandonment design & execution (others want everything done exactly as per the book)! This adds additional time to the well abandonment. CWLH are shallow water fields located in 75-135 water depth. They should be able to abandon those using a jackup rig (which is at the very cheap end of MODUs) rather than a semi-sub. The costs will be closer to $150,000 -$200,000 a day (for the rig) rather than $500,000+. Although, the rig market is pretty tight in Australia and comes with pretty horrendous mobilisation costs. That's just the rig rate. On top of that you'll have key well abandoned services ( well intervention, fishing, cementing, TRS/ tubular recovery & wellheads etc etc.) Without seeing the complexity of the well designs (& how far the wells are from each other which dictates how far the rig needs to be moved each time), I wouldn't be able put a cost on a typical well abandonment.The costs quoted by Jadestone are pretty reasonable IMHO. These are small shallow water fields with just over a dozen wells so I don't believe JSE are taking on much risk with these. I think there is probably a decent amount of contingencies baked into those figures. I would personally expect it to come in less than that. For context: The large North Sea field abandonments are costing multi-billions rather than hundreds of millions.

[mount teide] 20/4/2024 16:06

MrS - No.....since I would rather they either found a partner to share the high upfront $150m-$200m development cost excluding the FPSO(circa $150m) and execution risk.......or use the cash to continue buying attractively priced, high quality, second phase O&G assets with materiel reinvestment potential in SE Asia.

[mrscruff] 20/4/2024 15:51

To be fair technology used generally deflationary and the technology in the O&G sector I believe has got better. I would think cost inflation in the sector has peeked and these costs should be added to the oil price over time as there is always a lag for this to feed through in other sectors like infrastuture (unlike retail). It takes a while for inflation to feed through.

Has anyone done the maths on the revenue and estimated profits of the Vietnam gas?

[mount teide] 20/4/2024 11:19

Chart many have been waiting for Bloomberg to publish for years - Oil Price Adjusted for inflation from 1970 - 2024.

Confirming that the oil price today in real terms would have to nearly double to reach the level it averaged for 4 years between 2011 and 2014, and would have to go up by 122% to reach its all time inflation adjusted 2008 high price.

[1ajm] 19/4/2024 11:21

AL while you're here. Thanks for the posts.

What would the costs roughly breakdown to on the CWLH abandonment costs. $102m per 16.66% roughly $650m.

Okha FPSO isnt much of an issue.

how long does the well head sealing / subsea structure take;

If costs were $500k a day it would be a 1,200 day operation after dealing with the FPSO?

What would a breakdown look like?

do they get three new Akatara processing plants with it? haha just kidding.

[fardels bear] 18/4/2024 16:23

I think they should have the hand off whoever is offering 15-20m.

[nigelpm] 18/4/2024 15:39

Great series of posts by Al.

[fireplace22] 18/4/2024 15:28

21414, preferably with a micky mouse image atop!

[oilinvestoral] 18/4/2024 15:24

No worries! It's expensive business and a lot of AIM punters don't really understand the game they're playing when it comes to understand the liabilities associated with decommissioning obligations. For what it's worth I'm fairly happy with Jadestone and don't believe they have overdone it or overstretched themselves. There are many other companies that have bitten off far more than they can chew....

[premium beeks] 18/4/2024 15:22

I can't help but wonder if those newfangled plastic wine stoppers to replace cork that the french hate so much could be used at scale here.;)

[fireplace22] 18/4/2024 15:19

Thanks again Al, curiosity now satisfied.

[oilinvestoral] 18/4/2024 15:02

can't grasp why the decomm of well heads is so much more difficult/expensive than say sealing an exploration well with non commercial flow?----------------Yep it's a completely different ball game! A sub commercial exploration well is tested using something called a DST string (which is essentially simple temporary pipework with minimal attachment to the actual well). It can be unset and recovered by rotation or a simple upward pull. I've seen explo rigs button up an explo well within 7-10 days. A production well on the other hand is fixed using a permanent production packer. The tubing may have to be cut and the packer sometimes has to be milled. There are numerous hydraulic , electrical and occasionally fibre optic lines to contend with. All that before you even get to setting your first cement plug and begin to think about cutting/ milling casing strings etc etc etc etc etc ....

[fireplace22] 18/4/2024 14:50

Cheers for that Al, well explained, but can't grasp why the decomm of well heads is so much more difficult/expensive than say sealing an exploration well with non commercial flow? Just a thought.

[1ajm] 18/4/2024 13:18

How decomm numbers are reached and how any get to $1b for any FPSO is a complete mystery to me. I'm leaning towards there being a disgusting goverment 'enviromental' tax in there somewhere.

Are decomm fees considerably worse or better depending on region or lifetime output of the asset? no idea

Atleast woodside kept that problem to themselves and JSE didnt buy it.

[1ajm] 18/4/2024 13:07

RBL news and Akatara online may get JSE back above 30p. Unfortunatly the costs and decisions at Montara and Stag (although may well be being corrected slowly) which caused the share price to be where it is still remains an issue.

imo would take something new to get JSE back towards 40p. Talk of a new drilling campaign maybe or more detailed vietnam gas development plans once akatara is online. Or ofcourse a nice aquisition that isnt an Australian knackered FPSO with large capex opex and decomm on the back end.

Where is this COO? probably not the most appealing operational responsability prospect,

the boost to nearly 30p was inviting but looking at it, until news will possibly trickle back down towards pre suspension prices, news is overdue though.

GLA.