Jup Ord. Share Discussion Threads

[aishah] 21/3/2024 08:58

Not sure what Schiff is smoking as he thinks inflation will be 20%

[skyship] 21/3/2024 08:22

The CRB Commodity Index comprises a basket of 19 commodities. These commodities are grouped into four categories, each with different weightings:

Energy (39%): Includes crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil.
Agriculture (41%): Encompasses soybeans, wheat, corn, sugar, and other agricultural products.
Precious Metals (7%): Consists of gold and silver.
Base/Industrial Metals (13%): Includes copper, aluminum, nickel, and other industrial metals



Personally long Silver & Wheat.

[skyship] 25/2/2024 10:19

Parking this here as a reminder. Well worth reading the Q4'23 Market Commentary under the 2nd link.

[skyship] 06/1/2024 14:19

Quite an interesting article on asset allocation for 2024:

[skyship] 05/1/2024 10:53

My Spec for 2024 - TRIN - has current MCap of £17m @ 43p. In that context you will be astounded to read this fact-filled piece which places a value of c175p on the yet to be exploited Galeota project alone.

Hopefully they will sell or find a farm-out partner to realise the Galeota value.

[skyship] 01/1/2024 16:17

You state PTEC thread - I assume that's an error and you mean PRTC.

Sounds interesting; and will take a look.

Recently did well buying Augmentum Fintech; so perhaps a look at Biotech also a good move.

Agree wholeheartedly with you re TMT - perhaps ST (IC) will re-visit in his Bargains Portfolio '24 next month.

[rimau1] 01/1/2024 16:00

Happy New Year Skyship. I'm bullish on equities for 2024 and agree with the popular narrative that the combined tailwinds of peak interest rates, falling inflation and the relative cheapness of UK stocks should result in a positive year. Plenty of undervalued and unloved stocks especially in the small cap space. If I had to pick one it would be TMT but you know this one so my other is Puretech Health (PRTC). In a nut shell its a British Biotech with a unique model of having its own proprietary drug pipeline but also a founding entities portfolio business which comprises of listed and unlisted companies where it has sold controlling stakes to self fund the pipeline business so as not to take on debt or dilute equity holders but it retains minority holdings. 2 weeks ago one of these founding entities (Karina) announced an all cash $14b takeover by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS). PRTC now has cash on the balance sheet + cash from the sale completing in Q1 worth £516m or £1.90 a share. Current share price is £1.94, so its priced as a cashshell. It gets better, it has low hurdle (so almost guaranteed) Karuna related royalty payments of a further $400m due by 2028 which is worth another £1.12 a share, or BMS may do a deal to buy these out. So cash + Karuna £3.06 and zero value on its stakes in other companies plus its own pipeline which is advancing slowly but steadily. The PTEC thread is a good starting point if you are interested. The external macro tailwind to add is that Biotech has been in a 5 year bear market so there is significant Beta upside when the biotech benchmarks turn to add to the significant Alpha described above. Very prudent target price for y/e 2024 is £3 based on Karuna alone. Progression on the 100% owned pipeline and all bets are off (house broker is at £9). Low risk high return stocks are always a good shout! All IMO of course.

[skyship] 01/1/2024 11:04

Thnx Sleepy. It was certainly an interesting year for the commercial property sector, with the Q4 recoveries providing some significant and predictable opportunities.

I'm hoping CLI will be similarly rewarding!

[sleepy] 01/1/2024 10:43

SKY - thank you for setting up this years thread and for your 18 previous annual JDT threads! Your comments on the CP+ thread have been invaluable.

[skyship] 31/12/2023 16:59

Jeez - sorry to read that Gary. Down 24% not a nice number. The only time I was in that range was down 31% in 2008. Fortunately 2009 followed 2008 - UP 85%.

Hopefully you will perform more in that vein in the year ahead.

[gary1966] 31/12/2023 16:02

Well done Sky on positive return. Sorry about TRIN.

2023 was my usual cyclical terrible year after a couple of good ones with a decline of nearly 24%. Oiler’s did the damage for me as well with DEC and I3e performing really badly. DEC in particular I am really struggling to understand other than deals were promised and nothing materialised. So DEC is this years tip.

PHNX would be a strong buy as well but just biding my time as there are gaps on the chart and they have had a strong run as have the markets in general. Suspect better buying opportunities will arise in first couple of months of the year.

Last years tip, Scorpio Tankers, moved from $53.77 to $61.09 for a gain of 13.60% but not sure what it would be once FX movements taken into account. There would have been good dividends to add to that gain as well. Sold both my shipping companies quite early in the year which was a huge mistake as from memory a substantial, if not all of the proceeds went into I3e.

Not doing much with my portfolio, other than losing money, and so will post rarely for the time being.

Health and happiness for 2024.

[skyship] 31/12/2023 14:33

Link to new 2024 thread:

[skyship] 31/12/2023 14:09

SPLITs Followers’ Thoughts for 2024

Another difficult year for investors and the World in general. The Markets see-sawed back and forth almost on a monthly basis; thankfully November/December managed to string together two months of positivity.

The UK indices closed the year rather mixed. The FTSE100 finished marginally in positive territory at 7733 (+3.8%). The FTSE 250 also up at 19690 (+ 4.4%); whilst AIM had another poor year closing at 763 (-8.2%).

Personally my portfolio traded quietly in a +/- 5% range throughout the year (same as last year) and closed up 4.9%. A boring year; but happily almost covered my SIPP drawdown rate.

My Tip for 2023 – Greatland Gold (GGP) - was all over the place with many profitable swings to play. Starting at 8p they saw a low of 6p and a high of 11.5p before closing the year up 25% at 10.0p.
My Spec for 2023 – TRINITY Exploration (TRIN) – had a disastrous and frankly bizarre fall of 60%; down from 103p to 41p. More anon…

So, where to find some growth for the year ahead. Well, there seems to be a concensus that the UK is under-valued; especially when compared with the over-valued US market. The US is of course showing growth; whereas the UK is languishing on the brink of recession, though a mild one it is to be hoped. The string of transatlantic takeovers supports the hypothesis of a cheap market; but until the institutions and pension funds are regulated to invest back into the UK, the markets may well stay cheap and vulnerable to overseas cherry-picking!

My Tip for 2024 was going to be Augmentum Fintech (AUGM), but that ship has sailed with a 35% rise over the past few weeks. I’ve top-sliced; but continue to hold as I see another 25% upside there. Instead of AUGM I select property company CLS Holdings (CLI) at 102p as my Tip for 2024.

CLI is a European operation – 45% UK, 42% Germany, 13% France – but has been savaged by the UK Market as they are wholly in the Office sector. However the extent of the fall would seem to be wholly unjustified. Whilst the NAV has fallen 17% from Dec’21 (far less than all UK REITs), the share price has fallen 53% from 218p to the current 102p. At this level the NAV discount is a cavernous 65% and the well covered dividend provides a yield of 7.8%. Through individual ownership and family trusts, the Morstedt family own 62% of the equity and have been large buyers on the way down.

The shares fell as low as 85p at the end of October, formed a base and are now seeming set to recover. Last week they broke through the psychological 100p threshold and seem set for a short-term run back up to 130p. Bulls will hope that the Mortstedt family might decide to buy-in the company; or sell out to the hungry PE sector.



My Spec for 2024 is to re-run TRIN @ 41.0p. Without TRIN I would have been up 14% in 2023! The shares are absurdly cheap – perhaps like many on AIM. The MCap of a mere £16.4m needs to be weighed against Operating Revenues of $12m for 2023 & a likely $15m+ for 2024. Oil flow is steady at c2900Bopd and next year no petroleum tax. They are already paying a dividend of 1.5p/annum. A rapid recovery to 60p at least looks likely in Q1’24.



I look forward to reading others’ New Year tips and views; and any contributions throughout the year are most welcome…
=====================

Useful links to gilt/bond prices, commodity prices & the UK 10yr Gilt:

[skyship] 14/12/2023 14:26

API, EBOX & SREI (as per my 114 above) all recovering nicely. CLI still in the departure lounge, struggling to make the break through the psychological 100p level.

starpukka - I bought back into SERE @ 65.6p. Look to be one of the best value plays in the REIT sector.

[skyship] 01/12/2023 13:34

Indeed. They remain under the cosh at 96p; whereas all other REITs have seen a good recovery, many up 20% from their recent Sept/Oct lows.

Not sure what will finally trigger a recovery; but I'm sure it will come.

[starpukka] 01/12/2023 13:10

Interesting you mention CLI. I hold but it is my 2nd worse faller @ 33% down on my buy price !

[skyship] 26/11/2023 13:19

Bt into CLI @ 98p last week. The office specialist sell-off has been overdone as people have pushed the sell button regardless of actual fundamentals.

On the LMP thread Nexus posted that Property Week reports Deloitte’s London Office Crane Survey (winter 2023) has recorded its highest ever volume of new office starts since the study began in 2005, with 5.1m sq ft of construction starting across 43 schemes suggesting healthy demand.The Deloitte survey is London only, but a true guide to the facts rather than the scare stories.

Companies will still need their offices; occupancy may be down but the available space will need to be better geared to entice and retain employees. So overall space may not reduce at all.

Markets always overdo on both upside and downside. CLI is IMO a classic case of a fall overdone by fear and ignorance.

[starpukka] 15/11/2023 15:34

Thank you for your response, Sky. I currently have 24 holdings; but only a handful are single co. shares: including: mng, phnx, fnx, eck and stan.

The rest are reits, renewables and pref shares.

Gary, you have the right idea, the weather is dismal over here.

[skyship] 07/11/2023 14:44

There are a whole lot of bargains out there at the moment; but TMT is surely absurdly undervalued.

TMT was one of ST's (IC) Bargains for 2023. He has just made this re-tip which tells the full story:



I've averaged down there today; having bought a few higher up.

[skyship] 06/11/2023 16:37

sp - being a propco I know SERE of course; but sold them in the mid 80s a couple of months ago. Watching for re-entry; though a bit concerned by their high office content. Though that not such a problem in Euroland.

I don't like the renewable and infrastructure sectors, esp. the former. Totally subsidy dependant and the economics a whole lot worse than stated as product life a whole lot shorter.

My REITs are API, EBOX & SREI - which just a few days ago gave an average yield of 8.9%. Now down to 8.2% after 8.0% yesterday! EBOX still too cheap on a 9.1% yield and 47% discount.

I posted this on TMF on 29th Oct.:

Well, I too hold 3 REITs - API, EBOX & SREI. Taken as a group, the average yield is 8.9%!

The dividends on all 3 are covered & the BoDs state the dividends are secure.

None of them have pressing debt concerns, occupancy is good and rents are rising.

The average NAV discount is 43.2% to Mar'23 & Jun'23 valuations. Allowing for a further 5% fall the discounts reduce to 40.2%.

The discounts are cavernous, the yields are immense, the stock-market valuations are bizarrely bearish and untested.

Sanity will return once inflation and recession fears are reduced; but the current geopolitical situation is hardly conducive to improving markets, regardless of apparent value.

So whilst higher for longer is thought to apply to interest rates; lower for longer might apply to all sectors of the market.

However, here in the UK that recession seems to be constantly in abeyance, so if it does eventually kick in, it may hopefully prove to be a rather mild affair; really posing little concern to rent rolls. Furthermore, with high interest rates damaging governments, corporates and individuals; it seems to me that the central banks may actually cut sooner than anticipated, especially as inflation rates are falling fast – outside the UK that is!

As interest rates fall back, the secure yields in the REITs will inevitably trigger a strong recovery in share prices.

Consider this. If the average yield across my 3 plays cuts from 8.9% to 7.0%, that provides a 27% increase in the share prices. I’ll enjoy my 8.9% whilst I wait!

[starpukka] 06/11/2023 15:18

So, Gary, you are still in India. How long are your travels ?

Sky, while some of my reits have improved, I'm still severely struggling with others:

GSF 36% down
SERE 19% down
FSFL 19% down
TRIG 16% down,

Can you give me any hope ?

[gary1966] 04/11/2023 16:23

Well done sky, down about 16% myself but enjoying life in India.

[skyship] 04/11/2023 08:06

Get our of October and things looking a lot rosier.

After the surge in Greatland Gold (GGP), the start of the recovery in Trinity Oil (TRIN) & the 10% bounce in the REITs; suddenly I'm back into profit for the year - though still only marginally!

BoE held Base Rate at 5.25% - that was a no-brainer, but three MPC plonkers still voted for another rise. In their statement they confirmed only 50% of the effect from the recent rises has yet filtered through to the economy and mortgagees; yet unemployment rising and economy stalled. So WHY on Earth would those three vote for another rise now. Unbelievable!