Judges Scientific Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 30/6/2016 10:11

Weak sterling a big tailwind for Judges

From the Finals

'As a large percentage of the Group's sales are overseas, exchange rates have a significant impact. Judges' manufacturing costs are largely in Sterling and most of its revenue originates from countries where the standard of value is the Euro (one third of total revenue) or the US Dollar (half of total revenue). Compared with 2014 (when the £/$ rate was particularly high), 2015 saw an overall improvement with a much stronger Dollar, albeit alongside a weaker Euro. Current exchange rates are, in the main, the most favourable we've seen since 2009.'

[ben12358] 25/5/2016 22:23

Agreed modform. Today's rns really showed a lack of forward order visibility in a non-cyclical market. I understand this happens in house-builders and recruiters and the like, at certain points in the cycle, however the Judge's businesses should have many clients, be non-cyclical (due to an intellectual moat), and therefore have good forward visibility?

I sold today because I couldn't quantify the implications of the rns. It was far too short and sweet, lacking in clarity, and of no use at all to investors.

In my opinion, this rns only satisfied a regulatory obligation, rather than reporting to their investment partners in the business in a meaningful way, which is what they should be doing.

[modform] 25/5/2016 21:11

A rns without clarity gives the impression that the actual numbers are worse than we think and the company is waiting for orders to pick up before they announce the numbers.

[ben12358] 25/5/2016 19:00

Shouldn't directors understand their order book and why there are shortfalls? I should have picked up on this from the mello presentation, but didnt so I am quite annoyed with myself....The vagueness of the rns today really contributed to the share price reaction. I guess this had to be vague if the order book is a mystery to them?!!

[napoleon 14th] 25/5/2016 12:27

oregano - me too. I sold out years ago thinking 300% was profit enough at c. 500p but they tripled again!

They say profit warnings come in threes.
David Cicurel is very astute but IMO he's only starting to ascertain the problem, which could be why it has not been quantified. He will have to produce figures to convince anyone experienced that JDG are a buy again, if & when....
Indeed, he's unusually honest in saying that he, & other directors I presume, still doesn't understand why sales slowed up in 2014, so how can he gauge the damage this time? Hence the RNS without figures...
I also noticed him saying that a lot of JDG sales are one-offs, hinting that the short term problem with JDG's quality products mean they last 20 years! Perhaps JDG have satisfied their market more than they expected?

Uncertainty is always a handicap to a share price, so I'm staying out for now.
Last time this happened the share price went from £24 to £12 in two main moves/gaps in under three months! I still like the company, but "caveat emptor".

[oregano] 25/5/2016 10:33

thanks, for the feedback. I sold in April so am pretty happy. I don't think this is a quality stock but the seasonality appears to give you opportunities. given the wide spread and illiquidity I am inclined to wait for the downgrade.

[alphabeta4] 25/5/2016 10:18

Oregano there wasn't a further update from memory on the order book but they did say that a slow start to each year had become a feature which whilst it had affected some of their competitors they couldn't understand why it had started to become a feature of their business.

Brad Ormsby joined as FD around May 15 and was at the presentation and concurred with this. I'm sure there is a link to a video of the presentation on the Mello site if you want to research the full detail.

[tomps2] 25/5/2016 10:00

Here's the Mello presentation.

www.piworld.co.uk/videos/2016/5/10/judges-scientific-jdg-presenting-at-mello-april-2016

I thought they presented a very strong picture. Contrasting with 2014, when they didn't know why profits dropped. And that Brexit would have no impact.

And, as Alphabeta4 says, I thought fx would work in their favour.

From the FY results:

"Your Board considers order intake and the resultant period end order book as a critical guide to the Group's ability to achieve its profit targets. At 31 December 2015, our organic order book stood at 11.4 weeks of budgeted sales compared to 9.9 weeks at the start of 2015. This coupled with Armfield's order book gives a Group total of 11.9 weeks."

So well above last year. A shame order book not updated.

Forecasts not changed (downwards)for now, with WHI, although understood risks now greater. WHI also say fluctuations likely to be short term.

Anyone going to the AGM?

[oregano] 25/5/2016 09:47

there was a an on site visit recently, and yet another presentation at Mello.

Did anyone attend either and was there any indication that soft trading had continued?

Not great for credibility.

[modform] 25/5/2016 09:43

I have now sold at a slight loss having bought it in January, the lack of clarity in the statement concerns me.

[melf] 25/5/2016 09:30

Not a holder (on my watch list) but agree Alphabeta. They have the numbers so why not let people know so they can make more informed decision about their investment. If I was a holder I think I would bang the cfo an email or call him this morning.

[che7win] 25/5/2016 09:00

122p EPS forecast for 2016 before today's update, it's rather high for falling sales.

[alphabeta4] 25/5/2016 08:48

IMHO this feels about right - prior to the Jan statement they were around £13.10 and the two acquisitions added c15% to EPS from my calculations for a price of around £15, at £14 there's then a discount for the doubts around organic growth.

What I didn't like was the lack of numbers on the statement - what was the impact on revenue comparing the first 20 weeks with last year? How low is the order book and how does this compare to the typical weak first quarters which have become a feature?

[che7win] 25/5/2016 08:30

Feels too high still to me.

[essential] 25/5/2016 08:13

At some point - could be now- these become a screaming buy on the back of everyone's fears..

[cyman] 25/5/2016 08:08

Wow.... What an awful reaction.

[che7win] 25/5/2016 08:08

What a fall, anyone know how far?

[alphabeta4] 25/5/2016 07:43

Neither did I - usually the Pound being weak against the Dollar is a good indicator for a rise here. It could just be bad luck and will reverse out later in the year.

[tomps2] 25/5/2016 07:42

Don't understand it, because broker forecasts were updated 20.5, and are up on forecasts from earlier? And they look strong yoy. So very perplexed.

[essential] 25/5/2016 07:37

Oh dear already down £2 in pre open. Didn't see this coming.

[tomps2] 10/5/2016 14:34

VIDEO: presentation by Judges (CEO & FD) at Mello, April 2016.

www.piworld.co.uk/videos/2016/5/10/judges-scientific-jdg-presenting-at-mello-april-2016

[davidosh] 20/4/2016 18:26

Judges discussed here...

[davidosh] 17/4/2016 23:48

Do let me know if any of you are coming....

[alphabeta4] 14/4/2016 10:45

Judges presenting at Mello on Monday...

[oregano] 04/4/2016 09:52

2 deals in a week and decent results. SCSW bound to give this illiquid stock the full treatment.