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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Jtc Plc JTC London Ordinary Share JE00BF4X3P53 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
4.00 0.72% 558.00 09:58:54
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552.00 552.00 560.00 554.00
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mount teide: Exxon - A fourth quarterly loss in 2020 after a $20-Billion Write-Down piles the pressure on the company to follow the other oil majors lead and start disinvesting from the sector by transitioning more into clean energy. The Unintended Consequences Of Fossil Fuel Divestment - Cyril Widdershoven / Global Head Strategy & Risk at Berry Commodities Fund. 'The stability of the global oil market is under threat. The impact of COVID-19 and the resultant demand destruction has put an ever-increasing amount of oil and gas producers on the path to bankruptcy. At present, the list of U.S. shale oil and gas producers filing for Chapter 11 is growing by the day, while global oilfield services and offshore drilling companies are fighting to survive. Ultimately, this very dire situation is being driven by oil and gas demand and prices, which is why a degree of stability has returned with oil prices back around the $40-$50 mark. But there is another variable beyond just supply and demand that is now threatening to reintroduce instability to markets. Fossil Fuel Divestment, supported by international governments, international financial institutions, and investors is now threatening to push oil and gas companies into the abyss. In recent weeks, a group of 12 major cities in the EU, USA, and Africa, all pledged to divest from coal, oil, and gas. These cities are home to more than 36 million residents and hold over $295 billion in assets. Led by London and New York City, they have decided to divest from the fossil fuel assets that they directly control and have called on the pension funds managing their money to do the same. The other cities joining the divestment declaration are Berlin, Bristol, Cape Town, Durban, Los Angeles, Milan, New Orleans, Oslo, Pittsburgh, and Vancouver. Activist investors, in-line with the growing Western media onslaught on hydrocarbon production and use, are putting not only the future of international oil and gas producers at risk but increasingly removing the necessary equilibrium between independent (privately owned) oil and gas producers and the national oil companies. For decades, global oil and gas production has been built on several mainstream structures, including the Texas Railroad Commission, Seven Sisters, and OPEC. These structures have helped to stabilize and structure the market to benefit producers, shareholders, and consumers at the same time. The power balance between the Seven Sisters (which in its modern form consists of Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, and Chevron) and OPEC producers has regulated the $1.7-1.8 trillion oil market through times of financial crisis, regional wars, and Black Swan events. This necessary cooperation or power equilibrium is now being undermined by investors and politicians, threatening not only energy and petroleum product supply to global markets but also diminishing the influence of consumer countries on producers, such as OPEC. An increasing amount of international financial giants, such as Dutch asset manager Robeco, are committed to excluding investments in thermal coal, oil sands, and Arctic drilling from all its mutual funds. The Dutch fund stated that it will bar companies that derive 25% or more of their revenues from thermal coal or oil sands, or 10% or more from Arctic drilling. The Dutch asset manager, holding around 155 billion euros ($181 billion), has already excluded thermal coal investment from its sustainable funds. “Our move to exclude investments in fossil fuels from our funds is a further step in our efforts to lower the carbon footprint of our investments, transitioning to a lower-carbon economy,” said Victor Verberk, Robeco’s CIO fixed income and sustainability. Robeco’s move follows a growing list of European insurers and asset managers that have cut investments in fossil fuels, including Dutch insurer Aegon. Robeco said it would complete the exclusion of fossil fuel firms by the end of this year. European insurers, asset managers, and pension funds are not the only ones. Recent reports indicate that global investors have already excluded $5.4 trillion from fossil fuels. The main driver behind this divestment craze is a determination to remove man-made greenhouse gas emissions in order to counter climate change. Reports indicate that 80% of all global emissions come from fossil fuels. To reach the goals set out by governments, emissions need to be cut by two-thirds, or fossil fuel production has to be cut by 1% per year through to 2050. Fossil fuel production has seen a growth of 2% per year in the last 30 years. In the eyes of most investors and activists/governments, divesting in fossil fuel companies will be a major step forward. Some investors are arguing that it is economically sensible to divest based on the stranded asset argument put forward in a major report from the Bank of England. Bank, equity and pension funds are worried that the intrinsic value of fossil fuel assets is much lower than current market valuations. The issue with that argument is that risks are not being taken into account by most investors and politicians. Even if the total value of hydrocarbon producers on stock exchanges has dwindled, the impact of divestment on asset allocation and returns will be immense. Fossil fuel producers make up around 6% of the global stock market and over 12% of the UK market. As some have already stated, excluding an entire sector impacts asset allocation, resulting in increased benchmark risk (relative to the market) and potentially higher volatility. Investment bank Schroders research shows that over the long-term the impact of exclusions on investment returns is minimal. However, it can increase volatility in the short term. Investors are leaving the market, share prices are plunging, company strategies are being changed and production is in danger. In recent months, statements by BP and Shell that they want to move part of their investments from upstream oil and gas to green have been met with plenty of positive reactions from the media, but the announcements should really give observes reason to worry. Going green is putting market stability at risk. Assessments about the major asset re-evaluations by privately-owned oil companies in recent months should be taken with a grain of salt. Even if the world’s biggest oil companies were to slash the value of reserves and current projects in 2020, such as French major Total writing down about $7 billion of Canadian oil sands assets, or Shell’s $4.7 billion hit in the second quarter relating to assets in North America, Brazil, and Europe and a project in Nigeria, the real value is a book value. At times of crisis and uncertainty, it is always attractive to take impairments. Even Exxon Mobil warned in August that low energy prices may wipe out as much as one-fifth of its oil and natural gas reserves. Not only do shareholders feel the pain of lower revenues and dividends in times like these, but hydrocarbon projects become uneconomical. By removing multibillion-dollar hydrocarbon investment projects around the world though, supply will be hit hard in the coming years while demand will continue to grow. Renewable projects are only able to counter the growing demand for energy, not for products. It should be worrying that IOCs, such as Shell or BP are not only divesting part of their global oil and gas acreage and projects but also stopping exploration for new acreage. If oil and gas markets are destabilized further, it will be left to NOCs to save the market. Clean energy analysts seem to have failed to understand that THE STARNED ASSETS OF IOCs ARE ASSETS RIPE FOR OTHERS. Profit margins, dividends, and activist shareholders are not such an issue for Aramco, ADNOC, NNPC, Gazprom, or CNOOC. With lower supply in the coming years, and demand likely to return, prices will increase and margins will go up. This will make the growing list of so-called stranded assets commercially attractive again. But this time they will likely fall into the hands of NOCs(and companies like Jadestone ) rather than IOCs. The future of IOCs and independents is not looking very promising. Lack of access to financial markets and a political-societal drive to block hydrocarbon projects makes some of the world’s largest oil firms look like pension funds or even graveyard construction companies. The future for NOCs, especially the OPEC+ parties, however, is bright. Without activist shareholders to worry about, easy access to financial markets, and SWFs, NOCs are not only able to reap the rewards of the current onslaught, they are also willing. For NOCs there are no stranded assets, every drop of resource can and will be produced and used, as it is part of their national identity. For Western and Asian consumers, however, it will mean that their politicians and companies will need to deal with the new hydrocarbon powers. Dealing with Shell or BP on a European government level is easy. To deal with a NOC, supported by its respective national government, is of a far more complex question. Regulating the market in the future will be a real headache for consumers.'
mount teide: Why are Commodities so Damn Cheap? - Jamie Keech / Canadian Natural Resource Sector Financier Relative to the S&P 500, commodities are the cheapest they’ve been in more than 50 years. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated a global paradigm shift that had already begun to take place. Investors that are prepared today stand to make significant profits. In this article I discuss: * The financial paradigm shift that will reform the global landscape * Why commodities are about to significantly rise in value; * How investors can take advantage of this to make huge returns * The impact COVID-19 will have. Commodities are Mispriced Commodity markets are cyclical. Prices go through periods of high and low valuations based on supply availability and demand for goods. As materials can be harvested, mined, or gathered more efficiently, they become cheaper to produce and supply grows. If demand does not grow proportionally, the price decreases. There is a natural ebb and flow to the market. When prices are high, supply eventually increases until demand is met. Typically supply continues to increase until it outpaces demand. At which point, prices drop along with supply and excess product is consumed. If, on the other hand, the economy grows and the demand for goods outpaces supply, prices increase. This natural pendulum swings from side to side as the market tries to balance at an equilibrium point. Commodity cycles tend to have wild swings due to the lack of actionable data and the long lead time required to ramp-up or slow down an operation. Today the pendulum has been artificially pushed in one direction… and it’s about to swing back with a vengeance. Commodities are the cheapest that they have been since the 1970s. hTTps://capitalistexploits.at/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ratio-commodities-to-SandP-500-1.png The above chart shows the value of commodities relative to the S&P 500. A decade of historically low interest rates has pushed investors to take riskier and riskier bets in order to find returns; thus driving up the price of almost all stocks. Disinflation & Why it Matters Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world has gone through a period of extreme globalization, resulting in more or less free trade. You can see examples of this all over the globe such as the signing of NAFTA, the creation of the European Union, and China creating global trade partnerships. Globalisation has been the driver behind the offshoring of American manufacturing jobs which, in turn, has also driven down the cost of consumer goods. hTTps://capitalistexploits.at/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/globalization-the-driver-of-disinflation-1.png The above chart demonstrates the decline in the growth rate of US Core CPI. Note that the inflation rate has hovered around 2% since the great financial crisis (GFC), largely due to the FED’s quantitative easing programs. From a technical charting perspective, this indicates that we are reaching the bottom of the deflationary period. Governments have aggressively printed money and debased their currencies (now called quantitative easing) reducing effective purchasing power. hTTps://capitalistexploits.at/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/monetary-base-AKA-money-in-circulation-1.png You can see in the chart above that the FED’s money printing machine has once again been turned on to prop up the currently stalled economy. For the most part, we’ve not felt these inflationary effects because consumer goods have been devalued at an even greater rate due to globalization. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the chart below. hTTps://capitalistexploits.at/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/price-changes-selected-US-Consumer-goods-and-services-and-wages-1.jpg The only goods and services that have been immune to the effects of globalization are the ones that cannot be outsourced such as healthcare or housing. Corona-Catalyst The world has been slowly trending away from globalization towards a protectionist/nationalistic approach. You’ve seen examples of this with the renegotiation of NAFTA, Brexit, the trade war between the US and China, and ,of course, the election of Trump. Now, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, people are waking up to exactly how much of the supply chain of our daily goods come from foreign powers such as China. There is an ever increasing push to bring those supply chains home. With the US unemployment rate now holding above 10%, we can expect a major infrastructure bill to be signed sooner rather than later. There would be no better time to see a bi-partisan agreement for an infrastructure bill than right now. This pandemic is the catalyst for change that many have been waiting on. Now what? With the possibility of supply chains being brought back to America, an infrastructure bill, and the never ending money printing.....there has never been a clearer sign that the cycle has shifted and global inflation is about to begin in a big way. In this environment the best way to protect and grow your capital is simple: Own Commodities!'
mount teide: Commodity Equities / Margin of Safety - 2020, The once in a 100 year Commodity Sector Entry point! hTTps://media.moneyweek.com/image/private/s--dOfXTHK1--/t_content-image-desktop@2/v1572003595/MoneyWeek/2019/06/190612-MM01-dow-gold.png 'A colleague, Lucas White, put out another interesting paper on one of the biggest opportunities they see in the market right now – the commodity sector. More specifically, the equities of commodity producers. So what’s the story? The great thing about commodities is that they may be one of the most cyclical markets on the planet, which means they follow predictable patterns. That doesn’t mean they are easy to time (no market is), but it can often be quite obvious when the participants are either overly gloomy or over-excited. Why the cyclicality? I’ve run through this before, but here’s what happens. Commodity producers dig stuff up and sell it. If there isn’t enough stuff, the price goes up. The producers get excited and try to find more so they can sell more. As the producers dig more stuff up, more supply hits the market, and the price goes down. When the price is at rock bottom, half of the producers have gone bust and the rest are too scared to do anything more than dig away at the little holes they’ve already dug. Supply goes down. Prices go up. It takes ages for the scarred producers to react. Prices keep going up. Producers get a glimmer of hope and start exploring again. And thus the cycle begins anew. And most of the time, the clues are in the price. Resources shares haven’t been this cheap in nearly a century Now, among other things, we’ve just seen most commodities fall to where they were at their last major lows – near the start of 2016, which was also a great buying opportunity – and the price of oil collapse to the point where one benchmark actually turned negative. So where are we now? GMO points out that resources stocks tend to trade at a discount to the wider market (judging by the US S&P 500 index) anyway (an average discount of about 28%). So we shouldn’t be fooled into thinking these stocks are cheap just because they look cheap relative to the rest of the market – they usually are. However, by the end of the first quarter of 2020, the discount had widened to “almost 80%” – very cheap indeed. In fact, it hasn’t been seen before, with nearly a century’s worth of data to draw on. In the long run we may have all of our energy needs produced by solar power and all our construction needs produced by solar-powered nano bots converting worthless raw matter into anything they want. But not in the next decade. So pricing the sector for near extinction seems drastic, even for a forward-looking market. As GMO puts it: “the global economy couldn’t function without extractive industries. Furthermore, the world can’t transition from fossil fuels to clean energy without the materials that clean energy relies upon”. What makes these stocks attractive now? Well, we’ve been in a bear market. So producers have grown miserly in terms of their spending. A combination of capital discipline and improving prices for their products would be very good news for share prices. But even if commodity prices don’t rise, the sector looks cheap. As the GMO team says: “resource companies have had a rough go of it in recent years, but at these valuations, investors have a large margin of safety even with very conservative assumptions… we believe this will likely end up being an excellent entry point for long-term investors.” Now that was a month ago, and prices have moved up since then – but only enough to suggest that GMO was onto something. I’d suggest that there’s still plenty of opportunity to get on board. Particularly if inflation really does take off after all this.' Moneyweek
the chairman elect: Just for info Mrs B - take a look @ RNS out from Tirupati Graphite at 4.00 p.m. today LSE:TGR Tirupati Graphite MKT CAP c£GBP40m IPO price = 45p IPO - 1st dealings expected 11th December 2020 Sector = Graphite GBP£6m raised with GBP£2m now available via the below.... In order to participate in the Intermediaries Offer, retail investors can apply through the www.PrimaryBid.com platform and the PrimaryBid mobile app available on the Apple App Store and Google Play. PrimaryBid does not charge investors any commission for this service. It is vital to note that once an application for the Offer has been made and accepted via PrimaryBid, an application cannot be withdrawn. For further information on PrimaryBid.com or the procedure for applications under the PrimaryBid Offer, visit www.PrimaryBid.com
jtcod: Will this become a more common story 2021? M&G Property Portfolio enters eighth month of suspension Writer, Laura Suter Tuesday, July 14, 2020 - 12:56 Investors in the M&G Property Portfolio will have to wait at least another month before they can get their hands on their money, with the fund’s suspension extended for another 28 days. Investors have endured more than seven months of suspension so far and it now feels likely that the extension could continue until the end of the year. This update provides a small glimmer of hope, as the independent valuers on the fund say they have clarity over pricing in another two areas of the property market: central London offices and student accommodation. Along with industrial and logistics properties, this means that they can accurately price 28% of the fund. However, that means more than 70% of the fund is still invested in assets where there is no certainty over their value – the fund has a long way to go before it gets below the FCA’s 20% threshold for uncertainty over valuations. The majority of property fund investors are doing so partly for the income they’ll receive, but this has been very uncertain during the Covid-19 crisis, with many companies unable to pay rent or deferring it. The managers on the M&G fund say they are now getting 71% of their rent due, slightly up from two-thirds in April, meaning investors should expect a similar 30% haircut to their income payouts from the fund. The M&G property fund is fighting fires on two sides before it can re-open: one on the accurate valuation of its assets and another on the level of liquidity in the fund. Investors will be disappointed that no properties have been offloaded since last month’s update and there are still £180m of assets either under offer or exchanged on. Considering over the past seven months of the fund closure there has been almost £150m of assets sold, there could be a long road to go before there is sufficient cash to re-open.
jtcod: I see bond buyers looking for yield have been buying China Foreigners bought a record amount of Chinese local bonds in May The amount of foreign money flowing into onshore Chinese bonds more than doubled in May from its previous monthly total and the proportion of the bonds held by foreign investors rose to the highest level on record, Chinese government data showed. • The increase from April to May was the largest in 18 months, South China Morning Post reported. What's happening: Ultra-low bond yields in the U.S., eurozone and other developed markets seem to be driving money to China, even as its yuan currency depreciates below 7-to-1 against the dollar. • “Overseas investors are showing great interest in the Chinese bond market because its sovereign treasury bonds have relatively strong returns,” Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, told SCMP. Yes, but: The numbers are still very small. The outstanding positions of onshore Chinese bonds owned by non-mainland investors was only $343.4 billion at the end of May, or 2.6% of the total. Of note: In April, data showed foreign investors holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level since December, while foreign holdings of U.S. corporate bonds rose to the highest since September, another sign investors are willing to trade safety for yield.
jtcod: Question is, will that remaining $4.9trillion that exited the markets in recent months 'give up and return' or 'wait it out'? Axios Markets today Investors pull out of money market funds for fourth straight week Investors pulled just over $33 billion out of money market funds for the week ended June 17, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. • It was the fourth straight week of outflows for the safe-haven vehicle typically used by investors as savings accounts for cash holdings. The big picture: Money market funds had seen their assets rise to nearly $5 trillion as investors pulled out of riskier plays like stocks and commodities at a record pace over the preceding months. • Money market funds have seen a total of $104.74 billion of outflows in the past four weeks. Yes, but: Until this week, funds were largely flowing into bonds rather than stocks. ICI data and Refinitiv data show that equity funds had seen $38 billion of outflows in the weeks ended May 13 to June 3. • The funds saw $13.1 billion of inflows for the week ended June 10, the last week for which ICI equity fund data is available. • Data from Refinitiv Lipper shows equity funds saw $25.5 billion in outflows for the week ending June 17.
the stigologist: One of the problems PYC Physiomics has had getting the respect/valuation it deserves has been the lack of a decent UK quoted comparitor to help analysts and investors gain a better understanding of the market it operates in, the industry dynamics and the appropriate valuation benchmark Although there still remains no viable UK comparitor in recent months an interesting US comparitor has emerged which may help Investors understanding and appreciation of PYC What is interesting is that this is no ordinary comparitor. This Company has been described by Citron Research as a 'Tesla type' industry disruptor, the most important IPO in the last 5 years and has Bill Gates and D.E.Shaw as major cornerstone investors (together owning c.50%). Citron Research are mainly known as a specialist 'Bear' research house often debunking 'hot' stocks so it's interesting that they are so positive on this particular concept stock. The stock in question is SDGR Schrodinger a Company founded in 1990, the current CEO joined in c.2002. It has taken them up now to IPO (February 2020) since when the stock has tripled ! ($17 to $55) and the Company is currently valued at over 30x (yes THIRTY times!) Revenue (2019 revenue $86m ; Mkt Cap $2.7bn) The underlying story of Schrodinger is that of applying computer modelling techniques to drug discovery. Global Pharma/Biotech spends c.$180bn a year on R&D. So SDGR has a potentially huge market still left to penetrate. Faced with a US tech comparitor the usual response from UK cuck analysts/Fund Managers is 'well US equity investors apply higher ratings to US stocks that's just the way it is' However there is very good reason to make the case that Physiomics should not only be valued at 30x revenue but could deserve a premium! SDGR is valued at 30x Revenue because US investors believe it has a wide open growth opportunity to eat into the $180bn Global Pharma R&D market opportunity If US investors are prepared to pay so much for future growth how much would PYC be worth as a 'growth option' acquisition for either SDGR or a peer such as Private Equity roll-up Certara ? - PYC would give SDGR access to computer based modelling and simulation expertise in the Drug Development part of the R&D cycle rather then just Drug Discovery - PYC would give SDGR access to European geography - PYC would give SDGR access to customers SDGR might not otherwise have access to (Merck, Bicycle Therapeutics) Applying a 30x valuation to PYC's trailing 12 month revenues would imply a valuation of £23m (compared to the current £2.9m) a share price of 32.5p versus current 4p NB : That valuation applied to Physiomics 'bread and butter' modelling and simulation business which is analagous to Schrodinger. Physiomics also have a 'blue sky' story in utilising their Virtual Tumour cancer modelling expertise to offer a 'Business to Consumer' Universal Cancer Decision Support System through NHS/Clinicians which could be worth... well name your price. UK unicorns in AI/ML pharma/bio space are valued at Billions on zero revenue.
jtcod: Axios Markets today Professional investors keep loading up on cash Institutional investors revived their flight to safety last week, pushing inflows to money market funds to all-time-high levels, largely unaccompanied by retail investors. What it means: Money market funds saw inflows of $108.70 billion for the week ending April 22, almost all of which came from professionals who added $108.26 billion. • For institutional investors, it was the fifth highest weekly total ever recorded. • Four of the five largest weekly inflows by institutional investors to money market funds have come since March 18, data from the Investment Company Institute show. • Retail investors have held firm, as not a single week in April has registered in the top 40 highest weekly inflows. The big picture: A record $4.65 trillion is now held in money market funds. That's around $700 billion more than the peak level seen during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. • Further, the share of that total held by professional money managers has increased to 67%.
jtcod: From Axios today Professional investors keep piling into money market funds The divergence between professional money managers and retail investors continued this week, as the pros again flocked to cash at a record pace. What happened: Data from the Investment Company Institute shows institutional asset managers moved $163 billion into money market funds in the week ending April 1, the second largest move to cash ever recorded, dating back to January 2007. • Retail investors, on the other hand, went to cash at a much lower rate, allocating just $13 billion to money market funds, which barely registered among the 50 largest weekly inflows. Why it matters: The contrast suggests sophisticated investors remain extremely cautious about the outlook for investment and are still seeking the ultimate safe haven, while retail investors are less bearish. Flashback: Last week, data showed that investment pros were retreating from risky assets while so-called mom and pop investors bought the dip. The big picture: A record $4.4 trillion is now held in money market funds. That's nearly $500 billion more than the peak level seen during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. - SEE ITEM 3 FOR GRAPHS hxxps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-ce8637c5-c309-4f15-8c47-ed8ca0e057d3.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmarkets&stream=business
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