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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
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| Jtc Plc | JTC | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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| -4.00 | -0.47% | 844.00 | 13:00:05 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
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| 831.00 | 831.00 | 847.00 | 848.00 |
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| GENERAL FINANCIAL |
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Posted at 20/7/2021 09:15 by tell sid Great Trading Update from Alpha Growth (ALGW) showing strong growth:Alpha Growth PLC 19 July 2021 Trading Update Q2 2021 Alpha Growth Plc (LSE: ALGW and OTCQB: ALPGF), a leading financial services specialist in the growing uncorrelated longevity asset class is very pleased to provide a trading update for Q2 2021. Key Highlights for the quarter -- Aggregate assets under control of the group have grown by circa $40m in the past quarter alone, increasing from $300m to circa $340m. -- Providence Life Assurance Company (PLAC) has increased its balance sheet assets from $275m to over $308m, an increase of more than $33m. -- The Black Oak Alpha Growth Fund has increased to circa $30m in assets, up from $22m at the beginning of the year and an increase of $4.5m in the past quarter alone. -- A strategic relationship has been formed with Eaton Partners, a tier 1 capital introducer, to further accelerate growth in AUM. Eaton Partners have been instrumental in raising over $100bn in capital for funds since inception and are extremely well regarded in the industry. -- Peter Gilman has been appointed as a special advisor to Alpha Growth. Peter is the former CEO and founder of Aegon Extraordinary Markets where he successfully built a business that generated revenues in excess of $2bn. Alpha Growth has enjoyed an extremely strong first half of the year and continues to build upon its three main strategies; the following table outlines these strategies which have all been built around key client trends and market requirements. / Strategy: Separate Managed Accounts As previously announced, the Company's discussions with one of the UK's largest and most prestigious asset managers to secure a short-term credit facility were almost concluded with the addition of direct asset investments by the asset manager, as well as the originally contemplated credit facility. The UK asset manager to date has been working through internal underwriting and structuring issues which have delayed the approval for both the credit facility and direct asset purchase. We were anticipating a late April conclusion however the complexities of creating a framework for future additional investments by the asset manager, along with the challenges presented by Covid, have led to delays. Further announcements will be made in due course and we continue to work closely with them to ensure a successful conclusion. The Company views its exercise with the UK asset manager as time well invested in developing its separate managed account strategy, this has increased the interest and exposure from other significant asset managers that we are now working with to offer a similar strategy to investors for similar asset purchase opportunities and/or credit facilities. Alpha Growth is working with Eaton Partners, a tier 1 capital introducer and part of the global Stifel Financial Group, for introductions relating to separate managed accounts. This will substantially increase our marketing activity for this strategy and management expect that this will lead to significant growth. The Company also continues to progress the Alpha Growth & Income (AGI) strategy, this strategy is a combination of life settlements and life contingent structured settlements hedged by a life insurance policy that is suitable for investors seeking cashflow and growth, funded in either a separate managed account or as a co-mingled fund with a minimum investment of $50 million. It is anticipated that this strategy will be complementary to PLAC's client base and separate managed account investors. Strategy: The BlackOak Alpha Growth Fund Further building upon the impressive growth rate of the BlackOak Alpha Growth Fund in the first quarter, the Fund closed the second quarter with circa $30 million in assets - An increase of $4.5m. This significant increase has been driven by a combination of new investors, as well as additional contributions from existing investors. The 36% growth in net assets during the first 6 months of this year gives validation to this strategy and we expect to see continued strong growth through the remainder of this year and beyond. With the additional contributions, the Fund has now in excess of 81 life settlements with a total face value of over $65 million and continues to add to the well diversified portfolio. The Fund continues to grow its existing network of registered investment advisors who are the primary sources of the contributions. Strategy: Providence Life Assurance Company Ltd. The Directors continue to be pleased with the performance of its investment in Providence Life Assurance Company Ltd (PLAC). The acquisition and onboarding of the Company's Directors, Gobind Sahney and Jason Sutherland, is now complete and we are pleased to announce that the assets of PLAC as of the end of May 2021 totaled $308 million, this represents a significant increase from the previously reported $275 million. As previously announced, we are planning to grow PLAC substantially by the execution of our build and buy strategy. From a buy perspective, we continue to progress our strong pipeline of acquisition opportunities and will look forward to updating the market when appropriate. From a build perspective, we continue to leverage PLAC's existing relationships with fund managers in the alternatives, fixed income, and equities space. We are very pleased to be working with fund managers from prestigious companies such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Coutts, Golub Capital, etc. We are also pleased to name Peter Gilman as a special advisor to Alpha Growth. He is the founder and former CEO of AEGON's Extraordinary Markets, where he built a successful insurance business that generated annual revenues in excess of $2 billion dollars and contributed over $1 billion of embedded value to AEGON. He also developed various international strategies and HNW businesses that generated several billion dollars of revenue. We are looking forward to working closely with Peter in accelerating the growth of PLAC as well as bringing new strategies to Alpha. Prospectus The Company is working with its legal and accounting advisors to seek to meet the prospectus requirements against the background of an acquisition of an insurance group that has previously presented financial statements in line with Bermuda regulatory requirements but not the IFRS accounting standard which the Company adheres to. This entails liaising with the FCA as well as seeking additional accounting advice and may possibly require some additional updating of the insurance company's accounts. We appreciate the patience of our shareholders whilst we work through these issues. We would like to clarify that the Company's closing of the transaction with the seller of Providence was originally conditional on the FCA approving the Prospectus, along with required Bermuda regulatory approvals. Once the Bermuda regulatory approvals were received, the seller wished to close and in conference with Pello, the Company's broker, the placing was completed as announced. The placing agreement was conditional on the shareholder approval at the Company's annual general meeting to issue new shares, and the Placing Shares were issued on 15 March 2021 as stated in our announcement on 8 March 2021. The issue of the Placing Shares was not specifically conditional on the publication of the Prospectus. Once the FCA approves the Prospectus, the shares will be admitted for trading on the standard list of the London Stock Exchange as previously stated. A further announcement will be made once the Prospectus has been published. Chairman Statement Gobind Sahney, Alpha Growth Executive Chairman, stated, "We have enjoyed another very strong quarter of growth across our business and we are incredibly excited about some of the opportunities that the group has in the second half of this year. Despite Covid naturally delaying some decision making, we have achieved market leading growth and remain extremely confident in the prospects of the group." Gobind continued, "We are very pleased to welcome Peter Gilman as a special advisor to Alpha Growth and look forward to working with him as we accelerate our growth plans. We are also looking forward to working with Eaton Partners as we continue to deliver upon our goal of creating a substantial and fast-growing financial services company." The key focus areas going forward are: -- Increase assets across the group -- Execute our build and buy strategy -- Expand and grow all strategies -- Seek new opportunities to meet client driven demand -- Add specialized skill sets to the team More information will be shared by the Company in due course. |
Posted at 07/7/2021 10:31 by tewkesbury Toople delivers increase in gross profits and gross margin Francesca Morgan Vox Newswire 08:29, 17th June 2021 In its half-year results for the six months ended 31 March 2021, Toople told investors that trading has returned to more normalised levels as it begins to witness a return to growth. The telecom service provider to UK SMEs said that despite revenues largely remaining the same over the period, gross profit increased by 40% to £0.47m (HY20: £0.33m) while gross margin rose by 9 percentage points to 31% which the company highlighted was ‘principally due to a shift in our business mix to better performing clients with stronger debtor profiles.’ The Group also reported ‘a much improved performance at the EBITDA level’ as EBITDA loss came in at £0.595m compared to £1.04m in 2020, a year-on-year improvement of 43%. Having adopted ‘a proactive approach’ to bad debt by implementing a number of new measures last year, Toople reported no material bad debts, with only a £0.043m charge in the period compared to £0.309m in the 2020 period and over £1.1m for the full year 2020. While the company’s sales pipeline for the period was flat, Toople said it has ‘held up well over the last three months of the period’ and again it is now starting to see an upturn in the level of business as lockdown eases, with the number of enquiries once again increasing. Toople reported operating loss at £0.695m compared with a loss in HY20 of £1.04m. It said this figure for the period includes exceptional one off restructuring costs of £0.79m. Operationally, the company hailed the success of DMSL over the period which it said ‘continues to perform solidly’. Since its acquisition in February 2021, the DMSL brand has won a number of notable new contracts in the retail, NGO and local government sectors. In particular, the company cited the recent Sainsbury's and Carluccio's contract trial win. The Company said it now has ‘a healthier balance sheet’ and that it is well capitalised to pursue its growth strategy. By period-end, cash at bank was over £0.99m and total assets totalled £2.8m (HY20: Cash at bank was over £0.568m and total assets were £2.9m). Toople said it is ‘beginning to see a number of acquisition opportunities’ arise. It highlighted to investors that ‘with a strengthened balance sheet and the ability to offer listed shares as part of the consideration mix,’ it believes it is well-placed to take advantage of this. Post-period, the company highlighted that trading has ‘progressed well’ in the months since March 2021 with Toople having won a string of new contracts and contract extensions. Since early March 2021, Toople said trading has returned to ‘more normalised levels’ and it is now beginning to see growth return to the company’s sales leads and conversion rates. The company said it expects this trend to continue and that it has as a result, increased its sales force headcount by over 30% in recent weeks, ‘as confidence slowly returns to the UK SME market, boosted by the vaccine roll-out and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.’ Commenting on the results, Richard Horsman, Non-Executive Chairman of Toople said: "COVID-19 has caused great uncertainty for businesses and for the market in general, but on the whole we have traded satisfactorily through it, winning new business and reducing costs.” Also commenting on the results, Andy Hollingworth, CEO, added: "We enjoy a strong relationship with the large carriers and operators. BT, in particular, is targeting the SME market heavily with an above the line TV and press campaign. We believe this will benefit DMSL and will have a material impact on our order volumes over the summer months.’ View from Vox Since the start of 2021, Toople has secured new contracts which CEO, Andy Hollingworth, said are “further evidence” of growing momentum. The group’s long-term outlook is expected to be largely underpinned by the UK Government’s commitment to roll out fibre telecommunication infrastructure to replace copper and upgrade the UK’s network to 5G. In March 2021, Toople unveiled in an update that monthly orders had continued to grow, with gross margins coming in as materially higher than during the pre-pandemic period. Toople believes trading will continue to demonstrate significant progress as the current UK lockdown begins to ease and the economy moves towards the post-pandemic period. Shares in Toople were trading 6.26% higher at 0.061p this morning following the results. Reasons to Follow Toople The company completed its “transformatio The macro drivers for TOOPLE indicate structural growth opportunities across the SME Telecom markets. Its contract wins, and renewals point towards several compelling value propositions from the Company across broadband, mobile, and fixed line services. - Market Opportunity In a previous trading update, Toople said the macro drivers expected to precipitate substantial growth for the Group remain in place, particularly the UK government’s commitment to rolling out fibre telecommunication infrastructure to replace copper. The macro drivers expected to precipitate substantial growth for the Group are said to remain in place, namely HM Government's commitment to the rolling out of fibre telecommunication infrastructure to replace the legacy copper infrastructure by 2025 and ‘the necessary and ultimately unavoidable upgrade’ of the UK’s network from 4G to 5G. This forms part of the country’s efforts to upgrade its telecoms system to full fibre lines to deliver “gigabit speeds” following concerns that the UK has fallen behind other countries. The UK government aims for full-fibre networks to cover the entire country by 2033. Openreach, which controls the UK’s telecoms infrastructure, is building full-fibre to over 4.5 million premises by the end of March 2021 and more than 20 million in the late 2020's. Andy Hollingworth, CEO of Toople said this goal coupled with the impact of COVID-19 is driving the need for better remote connectivity and unified communications solutions. “As full-fibre availability in the UK grows exponentially, our suite of services supports the transition to a full-fibre future and as the availability of fibre increases, so too will the number of new and expanded contracts for Toople,” he commented. He highlighted the significance of this accessibility in a “new reality where employees can work from anywhere but must remain seamlessly connected to their colleagues and clients.” And said, “In light of societal changes to working practices, and technical upgrades to the UK's communications infrastructure, the long-term outlook for Toople is bright." - Strong Balance Sheet Toople’s balance sheet is expected to provide it with greater flexibility to target additional organic growth opportunities across their target markets, which should lead to a positive outturn for FY20 and accelerate its path to profitability and positive cash flow in FY21. |
Posted at 19/5/2021 21:01 by mad dog7 A professor with close ties to the Communist Chinese Government has declared that his country ‘defeated&rsquThe comments were made by Chen Ping, a Senior Researcher at The China Institute of Fudan University, a CCP affiliated think tank, and a professor at Peking University. The video, which appeared online recently, was translated by New York-based Chinese blogger Jennifer Zeng: 32 Comments A professor with close ties to the Communist Chinese Government has declared that his country ‘defeated&rsqu The comments were made by Chen Ping, a Senior Researcher at The China Institute of Fudan University, a CCP affiliated think tank, and a professor at Peking University. The video, which appeared online recently, was translated by New York-based Chinese blogger Jennifer Zeng: Zeng writes that the researcher claims “the Western model has failed, the 500-year maritime civilization is doomed, the CCP has won and ‘will lead the way of the modernization in the new era after the biology revolution’ after the 2020 CCPVirus (COVID19) pandemic.” Ping states in the video that “In 2020, China won the trade war, science and technology war, and especially the biological war.” “The achievement is unprecedented. This is an epoch-making historical record,” he continues, adding “So for the liberal, America-worshiping cult within China, their worship of the U.S. is actually unfounded.” “After this trade war and biological warfare, the U.S. was beaten back to its original shape,” Ping emphasised. Ping also commented on the 2020 U.S. election, noting “I think Trump’s attempt to restore the declining international status of the U.S. during his 4 years has failed. This failure is not only the failure of Trump’s personal campaign for re-election as president, but also the failure of the neo-liberalism-led globalization of the past four decades led by the U.S. and the UK.” “Therefore, the development and modernization model of the U.S. and Europe is not worthy of China’s imitation and repetition,” Ping added. China’s economy has expanded by 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year, marking the biggest increase since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992. The country has undoubtedly been able to rebound quickly by getting ahead of the pandemic in late 2019, stalling and obscuring the facts of what was unfolding while a criminally compliant World Health Organisation parroted CCP talking points to the rest of the world. With Trump out of office, America is now at the mercy of the Communist state, with Joe Biden having a long track record of selling out American industry to Chinese investors. As we recently reported, a group of the world’s leading scientists have urged more investigation into the possibility that the coronavirus pandemic was caused by a leak from Wuhan’s Institute of Virology, saying that the World Health Organisation has dismissed the notion without proper consideration. Meanwhile, GOP representatives on the House Intelligence Committee have demanded an update from the White House and the Director of National Intelligence on the possibility that the coronavirus leaked from the lab. The Republicans, led by Ranking Member Devin Nunes also want access to any intelligence on the “gain of function” research that was undertaken at the Wuhan lab in conjunction with US agencies. As we reported earlier in the year, top US National Security officials have indicated that they believe the most credible theory on the origin of COVID-19 is that it escaped from the Chinese laboratory. |
Posted at 25/3/2021 14:13 by mad dog7 Veteran investor Ray Dalio warns that governments across the globe are planning to outlaw Bitcoin because the financial elite cannot tolerate something that they don’t have monopoly control over.Veteran investor Ray Dalio warns that governments across the globe are planning to outlaw Bitcoin because the financial elite cannot tolerate something that they don’t have monopoly control over. “Every country treasures its monopoly on controlling the supply and demand. They don’t want other monies to be operating or competing,” Dalio told Yahoo Finance. “So, I think that it would be very likely that you will have it, under a certain set of circumstances, outlawed the way gold was outlawed,” he added. Dalio cited the 1934 Gold Reserve Act, which ended all private holding and use of gold as money. This followed the previous year’s Executive Order 6102, which made it a criminal offense for U.S. citizens to own or trade gold and led to a widespread confiscation program. The investor said that Bitcoin’s volatile nature also posed a threat to financial elites’ control of money and banking, “because things can get out of control.” Back in January, head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde called for global regulations on Bitcoin, labeling the cryptocurrency “reprehensible “(Bitcoin) has conducted some funny business and some interesting and totally reprehensible money laundering activity,” said Lagarde, who herself was previously found guilty of financial negligence by a French court. Bitcoin is also despised by cultural and media elites because it allows people who have had their lives turned upside down by deplatforming and denied banking to continue to operate. One wonders what the trigger could be to create the moral panic around Bitcoin to grease the skids for its criminalization. Perhaps a massive terror attack that was wholly funded by the cryptocurrency? The value of Bitcoin has continued to surge in recent months and now stands at over $51,000 dollars. |
Posted at 03/1/2021 15:20 by mount teide Exxon - A fourth quarterly loss in 2020 after a $20-Billion Write-Down piles the pressure on the company to follow the other oil majors lead and start disinvesting from the sector by transitioning more into clean energy.The Unintended Consequences Of Fossil Fuel Divestment - Cyril Widdershoven / Global Head Strategy & Risk at Berry Commodities Fund. 'The stability of the global oil market is under threat. The impact of COVID-19 and the resultant demand destruction has put an ever-increasing amount of oil and gas producers on the path to bankruptcy. At present, the list of U.S. shale oil and gas producers filing for Chapter 11 is growing by the day, while global oilfield services and offshore drilling companies are fighting to survive. Ultimately, this very dire situation is being driven by oil and gas demand and prices, which is why a degree of stability has returned with oil prices back around the $40-$50 mark. But there is another variable beyond just supply and demand that is now threatening to reintroduce instability to markets. Fossil Fuel Divestment, supported by international governments, international financial institutions, and investors is now threatening to push oil and gas companies into the abyss. In recent weeks, a group of 12 major cities in the EU, USA, and Africa, all pledged to divest from coal, oil, and gas. These cities are home to more than 36 million residents and hold over $295 billion in assets. Led by London and New York City, they have decided to divest from the fossil fuel assets that they directly control and have called on the pension funds managing their money to do the same. The other cities joining the divestment declaration are Berlin, Bristol, Cape Town, Durban, Los Angeles, Milan, New Orleans, Oslo, Pittsburgh, and Vancouver. Activist investors, in-line with the growing Western media onslaught on hydrocarbon production and use, are putting not only the future of international oil and gas producers at risk but increasingly removing the necessary equilibrium between independent (privately owned) oil and gas producers and the national oil companies. For decades, global oil and gas production has been built on several mainstream structures, including the Texas Railroad Commission, Seven Sisters, and OPEC. These structures have helped to stabilize and structure the market to benefit producers, shareholders, and consumers at the same time. The power balance between the Seven Sisters (which in its modern form consists of Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, and Chevron) and OPEC producers has regulated the $1.7-1.8 trillion oil market through times of financial crisis, regional wars, and Black Swan events. This necessary cooperation or power equilibrium is now being undermined by investors and politicians, threatening not only energy and petroleum product supply to global markets but also diminishing the influence of consumer countries on producers, such as OPEC. An increasing amount of international financial giants, such as Dutch asset manager Robeco, are committed to excluding investments in thermal coal, oil sands, and Arctic drilling from all its mutual funds. The Dutch fund stated that it will bar companies that derive 25% or more of their revenues from thermal coal or oil sands, or 10% or more from Arctic drilling. The Dutch asset manager, holding around 155 billion euros ($181 billion), has already excluded thermal coal investment from its sustainable funds. “Our move to exclude investments in fossil fuels from our funds is a further step in our efforts to lower the carbon footprint of our investments, transitioning to a lower-carbon economy,” said Victor Verberk, Robeco’s CIO fixed income and sustainability. Robeco’s move follows a growing list of European insurers and asset managers that have cut investments in fossil fuels, including Dutch insurer Aegon. Robeco said it would complete the exclusion of fossil fuel firms by the end of this year. European insurers, asset managers, and pension funds are not the only ones. Recent reports indicate that global investors have already excluded $5.4 trillion from fossil fuels. The main driver behind this divestment craze is a determination to remove man-made greenhouse gas emissions in order to counter climate change. Reports indicate that 80% of all global emissions come from fossil fuels. To reach the goals set out by governments, emissions need to be cut by two-thirds, or fossil fuel production has to be cut by 1% per year through to 2050. Fossil fuel production has seen a growth of 2% per year in the last 30 years. In the eyes of most investors and activists/government The issue with that argument is that risks are not being taken into account by most investors and politicians. Even if the total value of hydrocarbon producers on stock exchanges has dwindled, the impact of divestment on asset allocation and returns will be immense. Fossil fuel producers make up around 6% of the global stock market and over 12% of the UK market. As some have already stated, excluding an entire sector impacts asset allocation, resulting in increased benchmark risk (relative to the market) and potentially higher volatility. Investment bank Schroders research shows that over the long-term the impact of exclusions on investment returns is minimal. However, it can increase volatility in the short term. Investors are leaving the market, share prices are plunging, company strategies are being changed and production is in danger. In recent months, statements by BP and Shell that they want to move part of their investments from upstream oil and gas to green have been met with plenty of positive reactions from the media, but the announcements should really give observes reason to worry. Going green is putting market stability at risk. Assessments about the major asset re-evaluations by privately-owned oil companies in recent months should be taken with a grain of salt. Even if the world’s biggest oil companies were to slash the value of reserves and current projects in 2020, such as French major Total writing down about $7 billion of Canadian oil sands assets, or Shell’s $4.7 billion hit in the second quarter relating to assets in North America, Brazil, and Europe and a project in Nigeria, the real value is a book value. At times of crisis and uncertainty, it is always attractive to take impairments. Even Exxon Mobil warned in August that low energy prices may wipe out as much as one-fifth of its oil and natural gas reserves. Not only do shareholders feel the pain of lower revenues and dividends in times like these, but hydrocarbon projects become uneconomical. By removing multibillion-dollar hydrocarbon investment projects around the world though, supply will be hit hard in the coming years while demand will continue to grow. Renewable projects are only able to counter the growing demand for energy, not for products. It should be worrying that IOCs, such as Shell or BP are not only divesting part of their global oil and gas acreage and projects but also stopping exploration for new acreage. If oil and gas markets are destabilized further, it will be left to NOCs to save the market. Clean energy analysts seem to have failed to understand that THE STARNED ASSETS OF IOCs ARE ASSETS RIPE FOR OTHERS. Profit margins, dividends, and activist shareholders are not such an issue for Aramco, ADNOC, NNPC, Gazprom, or CNOOC. With lower supply in the coming years, and demand likely to return, prices will increase and margins will go up. This will make the growing list of so-called stranded assets commercially attractive again. But this time they will likely fall into the hands of NOCs(and companies like Jadestone ) rather than IOCs. The future of IOCs and independents is not looking very promising. Lack of access to financial markets and a political-societal drive to block hydrocarbon projects makes some of the world’s largest oil firms look like pension funds or even graveyard construction companies. The future for NOCs, especially the OPEC+ parties, however, is bright. Without activist shareholders to worry about, easy access to financial markets, and SWFs, NOCs are not only able to reap the rewards of the current onslaught, they are also willing. For NOCs there are no stranded assets, every drop of resource can and will be produced and used, as it is part of their national identity. For Western and Asian consumers, however, it will mean that their politicians and companies will need to deal with the new hydrocarbon powers. Dealing with Shell or BP on a European government level is easy. To deal with a NOC, supported by its respective national government, is of a far more complex question. Regulating the market in the future will be a real headache for consumers.' |
Posted at 03/1/2021 14:53 by mount teide Why are Commodities so Damn Cheap? - Jamie Keech / Canadian Natural Resource Sector FinancierRelative to the S&P 500, commodities are the cheapest they’ve been in more than 50 years. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated a global paradigm shift that had already begun to take place. Investors that are prepared today stand to make significant profits. In this article I discuss: * The financial paradigm shift that will reform the global landscape * Why commodities are about to significantly rise in value; * How investors can take advantage of this to make huge returns * The impact COVID-19 will have. Commodities are Mispriced Commodity markets are cyclical. Prices go through periods of high and low valuations based on supply availability and demand for goods. As materials can be harvested, mined, or gathered more efficiently, they become cheaper to produce and supply grows. If demand does not grow proportionally, the price decreases. There is a natural ebb and flow to the market. When prices are high, supply eventually increases until demand is met. Typically supply continues to increase until it outpaces demand. At which point, prices drop along with supply and excess product is consumed. If, on the other hand, the economy grows and the demand for goods outpaces supply, prices increase. This natural pendulum swings from side to side as the market tries to balance at an equilibrium point. Commodity cycles tend to have wild swings due to the lack of actionable data and the long lead time required to ramp-up or slow down an operation. Today the pendulum has been artificially pushed in one direction… and it’s about to swing back with a vengeance. Commodities are the cheapest that they have been since the 1970s. The above chart shows the value of commodities relative to the S&P 500. A decade of historically low interest rates has pushed investors to take riskier and riskier bets in order to find returns; thus driving up the price of almost all stocks. Disinflation & Why it Matters Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world has gone through a period of extreme globalization, resulting in more or less free trade. You can see examples of this all over the globe such as the signing of NAFTA, the creation of the European Union, and China creating global trade partnerships. Globalisation has been the driver behind the offshoring of American manufacturing jobs which, in turn, has also driven down the cost of consumer goods. The above chart demonstrates the decline in the growth rate of US Core CPI. Note that the inflation rate has hovered around 2% since the great financial crisis (GFC), largely due to the FED’s quantitative easing programs. From a technical charting perspective, this indicates that we are reaching the bottom of the deflationary period. Governments have aggressively printed money and debased their currencies (now called quantitative easing) reducing effective purchasing power. You can see in the chart above that the FED’s money printing machine has once again been turned on to prop up the currently stalled economy. For the most part, we’ve not felt these inflationary effects because consumer goods have been devalued at an even greater rate due to globalization. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the chart below. The only goods and services that have been immune to the effects of globalization are the ones that cannot be outsourced such as healthcare or housing. Corona-Catalyst The world has been slowly trending away from globalization towards a protectionist/nation Now, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, people are waking up to exactly how much of the supply chain of our daily goods come from foreign powers such as China. There is an ever increasing push to bring those supply chains home. With the US unemployment rate now holding above 10%, we can expect a major infrastructure bill to be signed sooner rather than later. There would be no better time to see a bi-partisan agreement for an infrastructure bill than right now. This pandemic is the catalyst for change that many have been waiting on. Now what? With the possibility of supply chains being brought back to America, an infrastructure bill, and the never ending money printing.....there has never been a clearer sign that the cycle has shifted and global inflation is about to begin in a big way. In this environment the best way to protect and grow your capital is simple: Own Commodities!' |
Posted at 19/7/2020 13:40 by jtcod Will this become a more common story 2021?M&G Property Portfolio enters eighth month of suspension Writer, Laura Suter Tuesday, July 14, 2020 - 12:56 Investors in the M&G Property Portfolio will have to wait at least another month before they can get their hands on their money, with the fund’s suspension extended for another 28 days. Investors have endured more than seven months of suspension so far and it now feels likely that the extension could continue until the end of the year. This update provides a small glimmer of hope, as the independent valuers on the fund say they have clarity over pricing in another two areas of the property market: central London offices and student accommodation. Along with industrial and logistics properties, this means that they can accurately price 28% of the fund. However, that means more than 70% of the fund is still invested in assets where there is no certainty over their value – the fund has a long way to go before it gets below the FCA’s 20% threshold for uncertainty over valuations. The majority of property fund investors are doing so partly for the income they’ll receive, but this has been very uncertain during the Covid-19 crisis, with many companies unable to pay rent or deferring it. The managers on the M&G fund say they are now getting 71% of their rent due, slightly up from two-thirds in April, meaning investors should expect a similar 30% haircut to their income payouts from the fund. The M&G property fund is fighting fires on two sides before it can re-open: one on the accurate valuation of its assets and another on the level of liquidity in the fund. Investors will be disappointed that no properties have been offloaded since last month’s update and there are still £180m of assets either under offer or exchanged on. Considering over the past seven months of the fund closure there has been almost £150m of assets sold, there could be a long road to go before there is sufficient cash to re-open. |
Posted at 22/6/2020 13:16 by jtcod I see bond buyers looking for yield have been buying ChinaForeigners bought a record amount of Chinese local bonds in May The amount of foreign money flowing into onshore Chinese bonds more than doubled in May from its previous monthly total and the proportion of the bonds held by foreign investors rose to the highest level on record, Chinese government data showed. • The increase from April to May was the largest in 18 months, South China Morning Post reported. What's happening: Ultra-low bond yields in the U.S., eurozone and other developed markets seem to be driving money to China, even as its yuan currency depreciates below 7-to-1 against the dollar. • “Overseas investors are showing great interest in the Chinese bond market because its sovereign treasury bonds have relatively strong returns,” Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, told SCMP. Yes, but: The numbers are still very small. The outstanding positions of onshore Chinese bonds owned by non-mainland investors was only $343.4 billion at the end of May, or 2.6% of the total. Of note: In April, data showed foreign investors holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level since December, while foreign holdings of U.S. corporate bonds rose to the highest since September, another sign investors are willing to trade safety for yield. |
Posted at 17/5/2020 11:11 by the stigologist One of the problems PYC Physiomics has had getting the respect/valuation it deserves has been the lack of a decent UK quoted comparitor to help analysts and investors gain a better understanding of the market it operates in, the industry dynamics and the appropriate valuation benchmarkAlthough there still remains no viable UK comparitor in recent months an interesting US comparitor has emerged which may help Investors understanding and appreciation of PYC What is interesting is that this is no ordinary comparitor. This Company has been described by Citron Research as a 'Tesla type' industry disruptor, the most important IPO in the last 5 years and has Bill Gates and D.E.Shaw as major cornerstone investors (together owning c.50%). Citron Research are mainly known as a specialist 'Bear' research house often debunking 'hot' stocks so it's interesting that they are so positive on this particular concept stock. The stock in question is SDGR Schrodinger a Company founded in 1990, the current CEO joined in c.2002. It has taken them up now to IPO (February 2020) since when the stock has tripled ! ($17 to $55) and the Company is currently valued at over 30x (yes THIRTY times!) Revenue (2019 revenue $86m ; Mkt Cap $2.7bn) The underlying story of Schrodinger is that of applying computer modelling techniques to drug discovery. Global Pharma/Biotech spends c.$180bn a year on R&D. So SDGR has a potentially huge market still left to penetrate. Faced with a US tech comparitor the usual response from UK cuck analysts/Fund Managers is 'well US equity investors apply higher ratings to US stocks that's just the way it is' However there is very good reason to make the case that Physiomics should not only be valued at 30x revenue but could deserve a premium! SDGR is valued at 30x Revenue because US investors believe it has a wide open growth opportunity to eat into the $180bn Global Pharma R&D market opportunity If US investors are prepared to pay so much for future growth how much would PYC be worth as a 'growth option' acquisition for either SDGR or a peer such as Private Equity roll-up Certara ? - PYC would give SDGR access to computer based modelling and simulation expertise in the Drug Development part of the R&D cycle rather then just Drug Discovery - PYC would give SDGR access to European geography - PYC would give SDGR access to customers SDGR might not otherwise have access to (Merck, Bicycle Therapeutics) Applying a 30x valuation to PYC's trailing 12 month revenues would imply a valuation of £23m (compared to the current £2.9m) a share price of 32.5p versus current 4p NB : That valuation applied to Physiomics 'bread and butter' modelling and simulation business which is analagous to Schrodinger. Physiomics also have a 'blue sky' story in utilising their Virtual Tumour cancer modelling expertise to offer a 'Business to Consumer' Universal Cancer Decision Support System through NHS/Clinicians which could be worth... well name your price. UK unicorns in AI/ML pharma/bio space are valued at Billions on zero revenue. |
Posted at 24/4/2020 13:10 by jtcod Axios Markets todayProfessional investors keep loading up on cash Institutional investors revived their flight to safety last week, pushing inflows to money market funds to all-time-high levels, largely unaccompanied by retail investors. What it means: Money market funds saw inflows of $108.70 billion for the week ending April 22, almost all of which came from professionals who added $108.26 billion. • For institutional investors, it was the fifth highest weekly total ever recorded. • Four of the five largest weekly inflows by institutional investors to money market funds have come since March 18, data from the Investment Company Institute show. • Retail investors have held firm, as not a single week in April has registered in the top 40 highest weekly inflows. The big picture: A record $4.65 trillion is now held in money market funds. That's around $700 billion more than the peak level seen during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. • Further, the share of that total held by professional money managers has increased to 67%. |
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