Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[tenapen] 14/1/2013 10:57

too much red tape !

too slow cutting it !

[binladin] 14/1/2013 08:10

should rally to all time highs............India is the only place where double digit growth is possible...

[loganair] 09/1/2013 10:41

Jonathan Schiessl investment manager at Ashburton:

What can we expect for 2013 and will one of the best-performing stockmarkets in 2012 repeat the feat next year?

On the face of it, it is rather odd that Indian stocks have performed so well in 2012. After all it is corporate earnings, and the outlook of corporate earnings that drive stockmarkets. This year has been a year of painful downgrades of analysts' expectations of earnings. This is due to (amongst other factors) the unprecedented monetary tightening by India's central bank (the Reserve Bank of India) as inflation has remained stubbornly above its comfort zone. The result has been a significant slowdown in GDP growth, led by a sizable fall in investment. But of course the market is forward looking, and policy tightening will likely turn into policy loosening next year (albeit on a gradual basis).

Looking at the equity market flows this year, foreign investors (FIIs) have ploughed $20 billion (£12 billion) into India (up to mid-December). FIIs have increased their exposure to perceived higher-risk markets in the hunt for better returns. While there is little doubt these flows are partly due to the aggressive monetary policies in the developed economies, and that India offers an attractive valuation, growth and stability compared to these developed markets, we believe the primary driver of these flows has been domestic in nature. By domestic we mean it is Indian factors that have driven these inflows, and by that we believe it is the reinvigorated reform agenda that is paramount.

It is our belief that it is the potential for further reforms that will dictate whether India will do well in 2013. Since the about-turn of the Congress Party in mid-September to a more reform-orientated, pro-growth agenda, there have been some significant measures announced:

Diesel prices have been hiked, helping the government's fiscal deficit.

The State Electricity Boards (SEBs) have begun to restructure (the SEBs have been a potentially huge source of non-performing loans to the banking sector).

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been allowed into multi-brand retail.

Each of these measures has very positive long-term implications for the Indian economy. But by themselves they are not enough, and there are other potentially far-reaching bills and proposals that are currently waiting to see the light of day.

Where we are perhaps a little more positive than most is our belief that this government might well surprise on this front. The fact that the government pushed the FDI in multi-brand retail bill through both houses of Parliament, in the face of intense opposition, suggests to us that there is real strength and resolve in these matters. With an election due in 2014, we expect a drip-feed of positive news on this front to ensure that the foreign liquidity taps are kept turned on.

Turning to the economy, I see 2013 as a year of gradual improvement in both GDP growth and also inflation moderation. The recent policy initiatives by the government and further reforms should help boost business sentiment and improve the investment climate. Inflation in prior cycles in India has usually fallen in the face of a slowdown in GDP growth, and we expect this time will be no different. Indeed we are currently seeing signs of wholesale price inflation easing. If inflation eases further, it will give the RBI the wriggle room needed to change bias from an inflation-fighting to a pro-growth agenda. This would have obvious positive implications for corporate earnings.

So, all-in-all, I expect 2013 to be a better year than 2012. With India's macro picture expected to turn for the better, and the government playing its part, we have a fairly positive outlook to the first few months of 2013.

Of course external factors could easily derail this positive scenario - continued eurozone worries or even heightened geopolitical risks in Asia. But let's not forget that India is Asia's most domestically-focused economy with perhaps the best long-term structural growth drivers on the globe. Add to that the quality of corporate India being world class and this is an investment story that deserves renewed attention.

[chrisgail] 11/10/2012 18:04

Today it bought over 1 Million of its own shares, either very confident or a very large seller wants out, could be cross selling from other JPM funds.

[chrisgail] 01/10/2012 18:42

Heavy purchasing of its own shares, seems company is trying to narrow discount, or, its picking up the stock from someone who wants out. The Subscription shares continue to offer an outstanding one-to-one exposure to this rise at a fraction of the share price.

[davidbh] 17/6/2012 19:57

And now the finance minister is to run for president!

[davidbh] 16/6/2012 21:28

AND i won't be alive in 50 years.
Sold JII 14months ago.
oo corrupt and bringing in retrospective legislation to inflict tax on investors (VODAFONE eg). is crazy economics.
Waiting for the gov't tochange.

[blue_max] 16/6/2012 21:13

"PTI | Mar 28, 2012, 06.47PM IST
NEW DELHI: Surpassing China, India will become the world's largest economy by 2050, says a report".

There has been many such reports and these are widely publicised in India. Music to the ears of the Indian middle class

BUT:

1. These are projections and they are often fail.

2. When looking at the size of the economy, also remember the size of the population. On GDP per Capita basis, India ranks low.

3. India continue to be a major receipient of foreign aid. Why because, poverty in some parts of India is also low as Sub-Saharan Africa.

4. One thing India has in common with problem countries of the EC is; rampant corruption. Bribing the Police and Judiciary is common place. Did anyone know that many people in India buy their driving licence? ie. Without ever taking a written or practical test? Driving in India ia a nightmare. People seem to make up their own rules as they drive along. Consequently, India is one of the top countries for road deaths and serious injuries. And the rate is on the increase compared to China where it is going down.

[blue_max] 16/6/2012 20:54

Main factor behind balance of trade problems is that India a big importer of crude oil. Crude oil prices have come down quite a bit from their peak. That should help a lot.

India is also one of the biggest importers of arms. It has disputes with ALL its neighbours. Change in its foreign policy and learning to live in peace is much needed.

[tenapen] 05/4/2012 10:58

FWIW i like the Indian Red Tape. OK it slows everything up but when passed there should be no loop holes. Lets not forget that the likes of Goldman Sachs are only interested in making BIG money out of a country and if Red Tape stops that ! more power to the people.

[loganair] 04/4/2012 17:12

Today, Goldman Sachs believes that the best could be over for the Bric countries. That can be debated, but what's for sure is that $15 billion of portfolio money has flowed out of the Bric economies during 2011.

Officially, India's market regulator says that a paltry $500 million has flowed out of India's markets, but some analysts believe that the number could be as high as $3 billion.

Meanwhile, growth is slowing: the government still believes that it can end the fiscal year, which ends on March 31 with growth of around 7.5%, but others peg it lower. Though food inflation has dropped sharply, prices are still stubbornly high.

Interest rates are hard, and few expect the Reserve Bank of India to start cutting rates dramatically to spur growth. So, interest-sensitive sectors, where people borrow for big ticket purchases, are sputtering. Car sales are slowing and the property market is in deep freeze.

A part of the blame for all this, of course, goes beyond India's borders. Governments in the West have pumped huge amounts of money into their countries to prop up growth: much of that has settled in commodity and equity markets worldwide and pushed up prices.

Oil, for example, remains stubbornly high even as demand has stagnated. In oil markets, speculative trading is at a peak: the volume of oil-related derivatives is now an eye-popping 20 times the actual volume of oil that is traded.

India, like China, is a big importer of crude and high oil prices translate into either higher costs or a widening hole in oil companies' bottomlines. This year, unfortunately, saw both happen, as the government half-heartedly raised fuel prices sometimes and held off at others.

Almost all other commodities, from copper to soybeans, have also seen prices rise. Much of these filter through as higher inflation in India.

High inflation and high interest rates have acted like a pincer on consumers. Not only does it cost more to borrow, things also get dearer on shop shelves. In 2007-08, India's consumption as a percentage of GDP peaked at 9.3%. By last year, it had dropped to 8% of GDP and Citi expects this year to end with the number at 6.5% of GDP.

But there's hope on this front. The last few years, aided by programmes such as the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, wages have risen sharply in rural India, and sectors that target the non-metro buyer could do well in the medium term.

The big worry is investment, which made up a huge 39% of the economy in 2007-08. This number could fall to 36%, reckons Citi. Part of that squeeze is due to higher interest rates. But a lot of the fall in investment can be attributed to the fog of uncertainty that the country is surrounded in.

This fog originated around August 2010, two months before the Commonwealth Games were to start in New Delhi and allegations of graft, centred around this huge project circulated in media. That stink has only got worse, with a four-year old allocation of telecom licences being labeled as the 2G scam.

The government sacked one chief minister, jailed a Central minister and several politicians and businessmen, but the uproar over graft continues. The downside for policymaking has been severe: an administration preoccupied with fighting fires in many directions can't see beyond the next hostile press conference or media report.

So, if anything defined the year 2011, it was the paralysis of positive policymaking. The bureaucracy as well as political establishment are under greater scrutiny from regulators. So, babus hesitate to clear even routine files and look for written instructions from mantris. Ministers are either too preoccupied or worried to sign off.

And then, there's the infighting within the Congress party and government. With Prime Minister Manmohan Singh looking more hapless and ineffectual by the day, nobody's sure who runs this administration anymore.

Most people know what the government needs to do to get things back on track in 2012: make it easier to invest by resolving the deeply contentious issue of land acquisition, get a good mining law that rewards local stakeholders and have a clear-eyed policy about how power companies can use stuff like coal. The government should speed up its own investments in infrastructure. It should concentrate on things like healthcare, sanitation and education that are important to create a healthy, skilled workforce.

But to do anything, the government needs some mojo. That mojo, we hope, will return if the Congress does well in the five state polls that are scheduled early 2012. If the Congress returns energised and if it gets its act together, 2012 can be a very happy year indeed.

[loganair] 30/3/2012 11:25

tenapen - only in terms measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), rather than actual GDP. It is already on the cusp of becoming 3rd ahead of Japan when it comes to PPP.

[loganair] 30/3/2012 11:20

Mumbai, March 29: The 12-member board of directors of Goldman Sachs, the storied American investment bank, arrived in Mumbai on Thursday to hold their first-ever meeting in India.

A senior corporate executive speculated that India seems to be the new favourite destination for big American companies to hold their board meeting, citing the high-profile PepsiCo's board's decision to converge in India.

Corporate watchers said the Goldman board's decision to meet in India signals the growing importance of the sub-continent in its future plans.

[tenapen] 28/3/2012 19:50

India to become world's largest economy by 2050: Report

PTI | Mar 28, 2012, 06.47PM IST
NEW DELHI: Surpassing China, India will become the world's largest economy by 2050, says a report.

"China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050," according to Wealth Report 2012 by Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank.

Cont...

[binladin] 19/1/2012 09:20

this has gone up from 318 to 360p in the last 2 weeks........there will be some profit taking soon..........

[binladin] 19/1/2012 09:05

straight up L2 is looking great