Jpmorgan Chinese Investm... Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 27/11/2007 23:31

Look also for an overnight bounce back from today.

[igoe104] 26/11/2007 13:21

This will bounce back no problem. i hold about 22k worth of these.
This is worth a read.

China's economy is expected to grow 11.5 percent this year,

[simonjamesturner] 26/11/2007 11:29

Agree totally. JMC in particular has been way oversold and TEM is very tempting right now.

SJT

[hectorp] 26/11/2007 10:47

JMC gets a good mention in the FT Money pages this weekend. So too, TEM.
These offer good discounts, shoudl rally back up, , etc.

[hectorp] 23/11/2007 15:52

nerja, yes the Chinesees have been and are very smart people, our concern, or kney interst, is what our Fund Managers are doing with our investment. THe early yeas of this Fund, I followed but did not invest ( for pretty clear reasons as the price has shown)until quite recently. In reletive terms the share has underperformed some of my own benchmarks and also Fundds such as TEM ( Templeton). TEM is much more broadly spread ( eg Russia, Brazil too) yet that should have held TEM back, it has not. JMC is off at least 30%, so if we happen to be at the bottom for the eyar, as sjt suggests ( last post) I got in at a great time.
I have my severe doubts however and expect I might still be adding shares in the 90p ranges. In my case, time is on my side. As nereja suggests there will be future ups and downs, but I'm a convinced China and Far East follower, have been for some years, time I started haveing a stake in it.
-I am intersted in taking a 5-6 year view and investment to double , or 20% P/A , not bothered about modarate fluctuations..
H.

[simonjamesturner] 23/11/2007 12:51

Hectorp

Well done, I think you hit the bottom of this one. Hopefull we'll see a reasonably fast recovery now.

SJT

[nerja] 22/11/2007 18:30

Hectorp,

I think the chinese are playing a very clever game, they have 1.4 trillion dollars/bonds ,yet they come out with the statements knowing full well what would happen to the dollar, they did the same halting the investments to hong kong. They are playing the long game for themselves at all our expence, how JMC will fair through all their games who knows, but for sure IMO they will end up owning lots of commodities futures/supplies world wide, technology info through the back door from us all and will buy stakes in banks,investment houses allover.
They are the biggest gamblers in the world, the market for shares is only in its infancy that does not mean its not overvalued at present though, i expect big moves all the time both ways for years to come. JMC was issued at 100p over 10 years ago, when you think whats happen to the markets over there its a pretty poor performance overall. Going forward at some stage revaluation/currency float will happen when its in the interests of the chinese to do it, this will also affect valuations, who knows maybe the yuan will take over from the dollar.

[hectorp] 22/11/2007 17:30

Gents
I trust none of JMC's shares are on Shangai bourse? this is a sobering read:
( it had to be the Telegraph!) note I'm not introducing bearishness, I bought my ist 5000 today at 126p.

[nerja] 22/11/2007 16:27

simonjamesturner,

No guarantees, but on past treasury moves they generally signal the management feel the nav is too wide and the shares are undervalued. However the shares can still fall a while before any pick up even with more treasury buys, the only certainty is that the management are supporting the shares,in the past its always been a good time to average when they do it, cant say it will be for sure this time of course.

[simonjamesturner] 22/11/2007 16:02

Since the NAV is 140p and the treasury shares will only be re-issued at a premium to the NAV, doesn't this indicate that they expect the share price to exceed 140p in the med term. JP Morgan are not in the habbit of losing money, so if I'm reading this right, its a virtual garantee of a 30% rise, isn't it?

Comments welcome

SJT

[nerja] 22/11/2007 11:50

Hectorp,

Good points,if we are at the start of a bear market then all bets are off, if its just a correction then it MAY be time to dollar cost average if more treasury buys come through. Long term even with massive volitility china & india have got to be on everybodies radar.

[hectorp] 22/11/2007 09:50

Yes a good sign it is.
I'll want to see the Dow starting to turn upwards however, and not entering a further down leg. I expect we will see the upswing.
JPM made that treasurey decision, but they can not guarantee the upswing.
Even so I will now start buying a few K shares at a time, and average.
H.

[nerja] 22/11/2007 08:55

Normally a sign of a turn around to come, once they start putting them into treasury.

JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc has today purchased into treasury 163,000
ordinary shares at 118.75 pence per share.

Following the transaction the remaining shares in issue less the total number of
treasury shares is 71,183,001. The Company will only re-issue shares held in
treasury at a premium to net asset value.


21st November 2007

[hectorp] 22/11/2007 08:39

I'm not yet invested here, its one of a few up my sleeve for the end of this current downturn. I see an endgame coming this or next week, and then a December rally seems quite probable. But I can see that the Emergers and China are going to have to prove themselves to the rest of the world once the US has made its mind up if it is going to recession. They are getting nothing on a plate here as we can see from this Fund's action.
JMC is down 6-7p today, nearly as hard hit as UK builders!
- Would you invest in TEM, by the way? its more diversified.
H.

[apetley] 22/11/2007 08:35

I just used my last spare grand to top up at this price.
SJT like you just cant believe the 30p discount to NAV and hopefully in the coming months these will bounce back nicely

[simonjamesturner] 21/11/2007 11:55

NAV just issued 144.9p. Amazing a 30p discount, nearly 25%. Never known it to be so high. Difficult to see how the MMS value this one given that the NAV is stable. Anyway topping & holding for now.

SJT

[hectorp] 20/11/2007 12:39

sjt you here?
I am trying to start bottom fishing..
this one and maybe EFM Dragon.
I see the share is not far off the 200 day, I would like that to be tested at 116p . The RSI is low, but could be lower
I have one exception to this Fund. It seems to be around 30% invested in Taiwan. That according to JP Morgan today would be a big mistake in 2008. Taiwan and S Korea oare ovr-exposed to a US turndown, wheras China Malasia Hong Kong and Thailand, are not ( they say).
'expect 20% gains on selected FAr east Funds in 2008.'
- no position yet. the Trust is off 30% so could be in for a great Christmas. Its a great play on NOT holding the USD and could be attracting US invstors too.
H.

[igoe104] 20/11/2007 11:32

2008 looks positive for chinese investments.

[hawks11] 12/11/2007 14:43

The discrepancy between the share price and the nav must be down to selling and as long as the nav continues to rise I will hold on.

[simonjamesturner] 12/11/2007 12:10

Hmmm, the nav falls 0.7% and causes a 3.2% fall in the share price This is going to increase the discount again.

[nerja] 11/11/2007 10:39

Statements from Chinese officials that their currency reserves were too heavily skewed toward the dollar are not new.

Three months ago, when US lawmakers threatened sanctions against China over the yuan issue, reports said Beijing hinted using a "nuclear option" -- unloading its US dollar denominated assets to sink the greenback.

US President George W. Bush cast doubt at the reports but responded that "it would be foolhardy for them to do this" and that such a move would be more detrimental to China than the US.

Bush was confident the United States and China could resolve any of their differences "in a cordial way."

[nerja] 10/11/2007 11:08

Knowing,
Got to wonder what china is up to, they hold more than $1.4 trillion in dollars/bonds yet they come out with the statement about putting cash into srong currencies. They also freeze the investments into hong kong for now, maybe the fund which they control had not yet invested, missed the boat so they want time for it to get in on the act. They have done a lot of the damage this last week or so, they know full well what they are doing, makes one wonder what they are up to really. As for JMC the usual happens with this, goes up only halve the gains and drops twice as much on the losses sadly done for the 10 years i have been in it.