Jpmorgan Brazil Investment Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 29/6/2016 17:43

I do not usually comment on the price of shares, however I am pleasantly pleased to see JPB above 50p which last year I wrote I thought may happen by the end of 2016, rather than during the middle of the year.

[loganair] 09/6/2016 17:49

hazl - My son spent the first 2 1/2 years of his life outside of Russia with his mum and her friends often speaking to him in Russian, then the next 7 years going to school in St Petersburg. He speaks good fluent Russian but not with a St Petersburg accent or an accent from any of the Russian regions so he is often asked by Russians where does he come from.

I Spent the first 10 years of my life in English speaking communities outside of the UK and as such I have no accent, I just speak good fluent English.

[loganair] 07/6/2016 17:56

Mu understanding is the way we speak any language comes in the first couple of years of life as it is how one uses ones facial and mouth muscles to form words in these first couple of years.

[hazl] 07/6/2016 17:47

Yes I think you may be right.You would have the edge if you know Russia well.
The friend does speak perfect English but she still seems to know that he might be better learning it from naturally English speaking people.

[loganair] 07/6/2016 17:29

My son doesn´t have an accent when he speaks Russian so when in Russia they ask where does he come from even though he speaks perfect Russian.

In my good opinion I think the Russian stocks have a better chance of doubling than India does.

[hazl] 07/6/2016 15:36

I know very little about either!
I am sure that you are on the right lines with the idea that investing when a sector is on its knees wins out eventually.
I had a few ITE last year for a while but am interested in Emerging markets again.
India is my current interest along with gold stocks.
It is great to have an extra language.Funnily enough my daughter has a friend who is Russian, she speaks English well but now she has a baby will only speak Russian at home because she wants to avoid giving him an accent.
I guess she feels he will learn English from everybody else.
Thank you for your informative posts.

[loganair] 07/6/2016 11:02

My area of real knowledge is Russia as I´ve been going there for over 25 years and my son went to school in St Petersburg.

[hazl] 06/6/2016 21:22

Have read with interest here and your posts with the Russian theme logonair.
Wondered what you thought about this or indeed whether it is relevant?
Do you know any funds that do the Brazil thing besides this one?

[quepassa] 06/6/2016 17:52

I have the same view as yours and have invested significantly both here and in JRS fairly recently

It is so refreshing to find an intelligent poster on ADVFN who puts a lot of effort in, that I was perhaps a little taken aback at first and unnecessarily unkind. Apologies again.

Please keep on posting and I will try to add constructive comment in the future to your top-notch posts from which I have genuinely learnt a lot.

QP

[loganair] 06/6/2016 17:28

Que - No offense taken.

Many posts seem to be that a particular share is up a couple of pennies then something must be up, is there a take-over in the offing or down a couple of pennies when the whole sector is down so in my view it seems to me not really worth posting.

I have always tried to post Information that others may find useful when making a decision on whether or not to invest in a particular share and as points of discussion.

I never mind if anyone takes an opposite view to mine, actually it is often useful for me to read.

[loganair] 06/6/2016 10:56

Que - For me there can never be too much detail, often I find most posts on most threads have too little detail and are therefore pretty meaningless.

However, I am finding what you´re writing about my posts extremely interesting as this is what many people say about me in my everyday life.

[quepassa] 06/6/2016 10:50

managed a full para that time before my eyelids drooped and i nodded off.

the coffee bit was interesting but then it sadly became too much of a grind.

wish each para had been just a bullet point summary.

great stuff but far too busy to trawl through so much.

i hope it doesn't put potential retail investors off through its sheer weightiness. gives a new meaning to gravitas.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[quepassa] 01/6/2016 12:08

it is without doubt good stuff which you post, loganair, but I fear that it may unfortunately serve to put many retail potential investors off BIT because it is such a heavy diet and they may not get past the first sentence.

That's a pity.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 01/6/2016 11:43

Brazil's New Government Has 90 Days to Save the Economy from Chaos:

ver the last several years, Brazil has gone through political and legal turmoil that has polarized the public into warring camps, revived forgotten fears of a latter-day military coup, and reignited racial and economic discourse in a way not experienced for an extended period of time.

Despite the overwhelming support enjoyed by the pro-impeachment campaign, the process itself proved to be slow and painful—and can be viewed as a traumatic event for Brazil’s institutions and society as a whole. The country now finds itself wounded and facing the same problems as before—only now there is no prominent figure like Rousseff to absorb the public’s blame and anger.

The new government led by President Michel Temer—Rousseff’s former deputy—has minimal room for error or even to adapt. The public’s expectations are high, and the government is expected to provide impossibly immediate solutions to Brazil’s deep problems.

Crucial Days Ahead:

The Temer government’s first challenge will be to restore investors’ trust and confidence in Brazil’s economy. Temer’s appointments of Henrique Meirelles as Minister of Finance and Ilan Goldfajn as President of the Central Bank are indeed a step in the right direction, and have been welcomed among Brazilian and foreign investors alike.

However, a full economic recovery could prove to be an unexpectedly difficult challenge. In the first quarter of 2016, Brazil’s GDP shrank by 1.44 percent relative to the fourth quarter of 2015—and by 6.27 percent compared to the first quarter of 2015. Overall, Brazil’s economy is set to shrink by 3.7 percent this year.

The GDP figures, however, only provide a partial picture of the depth and magnitude of the current crisis. Recently released data shows that unemployment has risen faster than previously thought, with more than 11.1 million (10.9 percent of the workforce) now looking for jobs. This figure represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly two percent. If that wasn’t enough, inflation is on the rise—going from 9.34 percent in mid-April to 9.5 percent in mid-May.

Adding to these concerns is the recent statement made by Minister Meirelles that Brazil’s fiscal deficit prior to debt interest payments could reach $42.1 billion this year. Many fear this will grow further, as the economy is not showing any signs of near-term recovery.

[loganair] 23/5/2016 12:37

Brazils two-year economic recession has forced Michel Temer's interim government to put forth a large-scale privatization plan, allegedly starting as soon as July and ending in 2018, that would result in a productivity boost and bring an end to the costly recession, however, it will all be buttressed with massive layoffs and increasing poverty.

Kristian Rouz — The Brazilian economy has struggled with recession throughout 2014 and 2015 amidst declines in raw material prices and is on to major structural shifts after the nation's president Dilma Rousseff was impeached by the Senate in mid-May. The left-leaning Rousseff administration, plagued with corruption allegations, had drawn harsh criticism for its inefficiency regarding economic policies, and interim president Michel Temer has repeatedly vowed "hard but necessary" reforms to boost economic productivity in order to exit the recession.

The new government unveiled its first steps to privatize a large number of state-controlled assets in order to enhance the economy's overall market viability. Yet, the reforms are likely to entail personnel layoffs and will result in spiking unemployment, undermining Brazil's individual consumption and broader living standards.

side of Petrobras, the Temer government might sell its stake in one of the nation's largest utility companies, Furnas Centrais Elétricas. Select infrastructure assets might be possibly subject to privatization as well, as energy, utilities and transportation have become a heavy burden to the Brazilian budget during the last years of Rousseff administration, impairing the fiscal outlook and the economy's overall resilience to external and domestic shocks.

"It's time to end with the government monologue and start building solutions with our partners," Moreira Franco said last week after promising transparent regulatory framework and safety guarantees to private investors buying into Brazilian assets.

Last time Brazil indulged in across-the-board privatization was in 1997, when Petrobras was partially sold to private investors, along with other state-controlled assets at that point. This time around, the nation's economy is poised to see an even greater increase of private sector investment, potentially enhancing the performance of many companies. Yet, as cost-saving measures are likely to be enforced immediately following the privatization, unemployment might skyrocket, whilst real disposable incomes of most Brazilians would decrease.

Local media have reported Temer's plan for economic reform would include a privatization of at least 230 power plants, the national postal service, and state-run airports like Infraero among other assets, affecting hundreds of thousands of employees currently of government-funded payroll. The government intends to raise between $10 bln and $20 bln by late 2018 with the hope that the economy would unravel at a fast pace.

The government "plans to transfer to private investors several assets, stakes and companies, although it is still analyzing which and which others will remain in the hands of the state," interim administration said in a statement.

Currently, the Brazilian government own some $568 bln total worth of assets in direct and indirect stakes in roughly 77 enterprises, and the government's initial planning includes partial sales of its stakes in most commercially viable companies most attractive to investment capital. Further down the road, less efficient companies would be subject to privatization as well.

The reform plan, however, has drawn criticism for its initial stages, as the privatization will not increase productivity as only the best-performing assets would be sold, whilst all the problem companies will remain a burden to the federal budget for an indefinite amount of time. Yet, looming layoffs and rising unemployment are likely to render workforce cheaper almost instantly, allowing for quicker productivity growth. Meanwhile, investors are still concerned with corruption, while commodity prices are still low, and profitability of the Brazilian utility and infrastructure sectors and negative, resulting in rather low investment appeal of the economy at this point.

That said, major privatization is easier said than done for Brazil, unless the government takes administrative efforts at improving the performance of state-run companies prior to liquidating the assets.

[loganair] 10/5/2016 13:31

Brazil Goes Bad, Stocks Rise by Steve Sjuggerud:


BRAZILIAN stocks rose 900% from 2002 to 2007, writes Steve Sjuggerud at DailyWealth.

Think about that for a minute...

I'm not talking about a single stock. The entire country's stock market soared 900%.

It's hard to imagine a country's stock market rising that much. But it really did happen in Brazil.

And right now, I think Brazilian stocks could be ready to rise by hundreds of percent again...

The story is simple: Brazil soared...and then crashed.

Yes, it went up 900%, dramatically outperforming emerging markets in general. But the way down was equally dramatic...The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Fund (EWZ) fell from around $100 a share in 2008 to around $17 a share this past January.

On the way up, Brazil led a great rally in emerging markets:

The way down was just as extreme. It felt like the crash accelerated in recent years...

Brazilian stocks are down more than 50% since oil prices peaked in 2014.

After a move down like this, you can imagine how bad sentiment is.

I'll be honest with you, the story in Brazil has been bad. Corruption scandals, impeachment, a severe recession, the Zika virus, you name it. If it ain't one thing, it's two things.

Investors have given up. And that is actually what I like to see.

As regular DailyWealth readers know, this is a classic "bad to less bad" opportunity. In short, the biggest gains in investing come when things go from "bad" to "less bad".

The news out of Brazil has been bad...but Brazilian stocks have been going up this year.

Could this be the start of the next triple-digit move in Brazil? Yes, it could.

A month ago, I recommended buying Brazil in my True Wealth Systems newsletter. The trade is up 19% since that recommendation.

But after an 80%-plus fall, and with hundreds-of-percent upside potential ahead, you haven't missed anything yet.

I'd suggest you consider buying in for the upside potential.


Former stock-broker, mutual-fund vice-president and hedge-fund advisor Dr. Steve Sjuggerud is the founder and editor of True Wealth.

[loganair] 29/4/2016 11:00

Buy Brazil: it’s messy, but it’s cheap - Money Week

Brazil has plenty to cheer about:

And that’s exactly what this week’s magazine cover story is about. As Matthew Partridge explains, it’s a country that’s been plagued by political scandal, and the commodity rout has dealt it a huge blow. As a result, stocks have taken a beating – the benchmark Bovespa index has fallen by 50% in the last five years.

But lately, it’s been a different story. It’s the best performing market in the world so far this year, and there could be “plenty of room for prices to rise even further”, says Matthew, “the political crisis that has paralysed the country for over a year seems to be coming to an end”. As a commodity producing economy, it’s heavily dependent on China, of course, but China is growing again, says Matthew.

On his funds page, our regular contributor David C Stevenson takes a broader look at emerging-markets. “Emerging market stocks represent decent long-term value”, he says. But he sounds a note of caution. “What happens next depends on a very obvious metric”, he says: corporate earnings. If you’re still wanting to get some exposure but prefer a more defensive stance, David has one fund that should suit you down to the ground.

[loganair] 29/4/2016 09:42

Votiem - Many Thanks

[votiem] 28/4/2016 18:46

Hi Logan. Delighted for you this one and JRS showing strong gains. Good for you. best, Mark