Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 09/4/2018 14:28

QP - Off topic quickly.

I've been hearing that the European's are buying as many USA Soybean contracts as they can to replace what they buy from Brazil as the Chinese are starting to replace US soybeans with Brazilian the second biggest producer of soybeans which is causing the price of both US and Brazilian soybeans to rise.

I feel this is important as the Chinese consume around 60% of the worlds production of soybeans, much of their imports currently come from the USA.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 14:14

In my opinion what is happening to day in the Russian stock market is mainly Sentiment driven because of what is happening with RUSAL which has lost around 50% of its value today.

Currently I am Short term Negative and still Long term Positive. Just have to ride the bumps without panicking.

In a way this is helping Russia as their currency has weakened to 60 rub to the dollar the exchange rate that the central bank has been desperately trying to achieve with the ever strengthening rouble.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 14:09

A few years back Sberbank was only JRS 8th largest holding as JRS had sold down their holdings. Sberbank then hit the buffers and when it began to rise JRS came back in and repurchased Sberbank stock which until today has gone from strength to strength.

As they say 'run your winners' which It seems to me what JRS have been doing.

I do agree 18% is rather a high percentage to have just in one stock.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 14:02

"is only".

Perhaps but not many funds in my opinion and experience would allow any single holding to balloon to 18% of total portfolio on grounds of prudence.

In my opinion, that is imprudent.

Good Luck.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 09/4/2018 13:53

Sberbank is only such a high percentage holding because up until today, their share price has risen by more then other companies and it is still a top quality company working in many countries with only 1m overseas customers.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 13:39

Wow.

18% (yes EIGHTEEN PERCENT) of the JRS Portfolio is in ONE HOLDING, SBERBANK.

And SBERBANK is currently DOWN 18.5% today..


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

ps


Top Ten JRS Holdings :





JPMORGAN RUSSIAN SECURITIES
PLC (the 'Company')
Legal Entity Identifier: 549300II3MHI98ZLVH37
THE COMPANY ANNOUNCES THE TEN
LARGEST INVESTMENTS IN % OF
TOTAL ASSETS As at: 28 Feb
2018
Sberbank of Russia 18.1%
Gazprom ADR 14.9%
Lukoil ADR 9.4%
Novatek GDR 6.2%
Rosneft GDR 5.9%
Norilsk Nickel ADR 5.3%
Tatneft (including ADR) 4.8%
ALROSA 3.0%
Polyus GDR 2.2%
Novolipetsk Iron & Steel GDS 2.2%
----------------------------------------------- ------
Total 72.0%

[montyhedge] 09/4/2018 13:14

Looks like a rush for the exit on the sanction news.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 13:06

The usual Panic in the stock market, hopefully will be followed by a Relief Rally tomorrow.

Russian bond yields have hardly moved today.

[rj allen] 09/4/2018 13:06

Why is EN+ plc quote unavailable on advfn? This appears to have been a major faller.

[its the oxman] 09/4/2018 12:36

Yes much more tempted to buy than sell now we're sub 500p

[blippy3] 09/4/2018 12:29

When Russia and Turkey were having their fracas in late 2015, it proved a great opportunity to invest. IIRC the bottom occurred a few weeks after the media moved on to some other disaster.

[andyj] 09/4/2018 11:04

I sense this sell off is going to create a great long term entry point in the next few weeks or months.

[loganair] 09/4/2018 11:03

QP - I think I'm a little behind as the MICEX is now down 9% when just 20 mins earlier it was down 7%.

Just see how it ends the day.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 11:00

We must be looking at different feeds.



On Yahoo Finance I see much bigger fallers today than you mention.


Look at some of the other BIG holdings in JRS today:

SBERBANK DOWN A WHOPPING 14%

Rosneft DOWN 10.7%



Good Luck.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 10:53

loganair,

Good Luck.

I am also a long-term holder as you know from our helpful multi-year dialogues on these various IT boards. But sometimes I take a "holiday" from my investments when I perceive personally that outside events may be temporarily taking a big toll on those investments.

As we agreed before, that is a great bonus of IT's over UT's that you can liquidate holdings at any time in the open market at very little cost.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 09/4/2018 10:47

Micex now down 7%, way over done.

The biggest faller today is Mechel while the biggest riser Rostelekom is up nearly 7%.

Sberbank which is JRS largest holding at over 18% is still up over 60% yoy.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 10:46

question, can you imagine a scenario where negative investor sentiment returns this investment Trust to a 20-30% DISCOUNT-to-NAV?

I can.

We are already at a 20% discount/


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 09/4/2018 10:43

As A long term investor, even if JRS drops in the very short term to 450p and I buy at 490p I am still happy as I know JRS stocks are worth far more.

Looking at Russian Government bonds their yields are still holding at their lows, even today.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 10:41

...and your wish has instantaneously come true.

Good Luck.

But , if I may, exercise caution as to your entry point + timing as investor sentiment may take this lower yet.

QP

[loganair] 09/4/2018 10:38

Any thing below 500p and I'm a buyer as it seems to me at this price the Russian market is excellent long term value.

The Russian market in general is down 4.5%, however most of JRS invested stocks are down less than 1% and some of their stocks are even up.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 09:56

True.

But today's fall in Russia is not concentrated on 3 or 4 dominant overweight titans but appears to be across the board.



Good Luck.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 09:35

You may be right.

But the Russian market is down a whopping 3.3% this morning on the back of the Rusal news

It's not just fundamentals but investor sentiment which drives stock prices.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loganair] 09/4/2018 09:01

QP - JRS is coming under far less price pressure than JMC (China). Personally I think JRS and Russian stocks in general will continue to hold up. JRS discount to NAV is less then for JBP (Brazil).

At the beginning of the year Rusal only made up 1% of JRS.

JRS largest holding is Sberbank which is going great guns as are their other large holdings of energy which both Europe and China need, Materials which again China is in a desperate need for and 3 gold miners with gold likely to do very well in the current environment in total make up over 75% of JRS.

Most the rest of JRS is made up of domestic companies that sell to the domestic Russian market.

[quepassa] 09/4/2018 08:27

The Rusal news does not add comfort.

Not listed in top ten end-February holdings for JRS but underlines how problematic the Russia sector has become.

Have been liquidating all holdings in JRS in last periods and am now out as expect JRS price to come under further pressure but will keep on watch list.

Good Luck All.

Bloomberg article refers about Rusal:

hXXps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/deripaska-s-rusal-sees-defaults-looming-after-u-s-sanctions


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP