Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
JP Morgan Russian Securities LSE:JRS London Ordinary Share GB0032164732 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -3.00p -0.58% 510.00p 504.00p 508.00p 506.00p 502.00p 506.00p 207,300 16:35:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 0.0 14.4 24.0 21.3 256.42

JP Morgan Russian Securities Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2301 to 2325 of 2325 messages
Chat Pages: 93  92  91  90  89  88  87  86  85  84  83  82  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
19/10/2018
10:35
Personal note on the above article - I understand that the number of barrels of oil per day usage will continue to rise until about 2030, then plateau out until around 2040. If there is a massive decline in shale production in the US in the mid 2020's I can easily see the price of oil rising to $150 per barrel and $200 by 2030 which would swell the Russian government coffers, leaving them with a massive budget surplus.
loganair
19/10/2018
10:31
US shale’s glory days are numbered: There are some early signs that the US shale industry is starting to show its age, with depletion rates on the rise. A study from Wood Mackenzie found that some wells in the Permian Wolfcamp were suffering from decline rates at or above 15 percent after five years, much higher than the 5 to 10 percent originally anticipated. “If you were expecting a well to hit the normal 6 or 8 percent after five years, and you start seeing a 12 percent decline, this becomes more of a reserves issue than an economics issue,” said R.T. Dukes, a director at industry consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd., according to Bloomberg. As a result, “you have to grow activity year over year, or it gets harder and harder to offset declines.” Moreover, shale wells fizzle out much faster than major offshore oil fields, which is significant because the boom in shale drilling over the past few years means that there is more depletion in absolute terms than ever before. A slowdown in drilling will mean that depletion starts to become a serious problem. A separate study from Goldman Sachs takes a deep look at whether or not the shale industry is starting to see the effects of age. The investment bank says the average life span for “the most transformative areas of global oil supply” is between 7 and 15 years. Examples of these rapid growth periods include the USSR in the 1960s-1970s, Mexico and the North Sea in the late 1970s-1980s, Venezuela’s heavy oil production in the 1990s, Brazil in the early 2000s, and US shale and Canada’s oil sands in the 2010s. Each had their period in the limelight, but ultimately many of them plateaued and entered an extended period of decline, though some suffering steeper declines than others. US shale is entering the lower end of this range at about 7 years. While shale is still growing, there are some signs that the “Shale Tail,” which Goldman says is “the phase when shale becomes a less meaningful driver of global oil supply,” may not be that far off. Goldman lays out the five signals to watch out for, which would indicate that the glory days of shale are over. Although Goldman says the real trouble may be a few years off, there is some evidence that some of those dynamics are beginning to occur. The investment bank offers a breakdown as follows: 1. When inventory is being revised down, not up. This is already occurring in some areas, such as the Eagle Ford. Goldman notes that EOG Resources’ inventory fell in the Eagle Ford in the second quarter, with the company having drilled more wells than it added in new areas. 2. When well productivity stops improving. This one is inconclusive although perhaps it is beginning to become a concern. Goldman notes that the industry posed explosive productivity gains in 2017, but those gains slowed this year. Decline rates have accelerated in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin, but in the aggregate, there may still be some room for improvement for a little while. 3. When supply cost rises for structural reasons. Costs have climbed recently, but largely because of cyclical reasons, Goldman argues. High rates of drilling have created bottlenecks and pushed up costs, but those would come down if the cycle soured. It is still early for this metric. 4. When capital shifts to other regions. This looks the least threatening of the five warning signs. US shale remains a top priority and the oil majors have stepped up their spending in shale, pivoting out of other regions. Spending on non-OPEC non-shale crashed post-2014 and hasn’t recovered. There has been some shifting of capital within shale plays – such as from the Permian to the Eagle Ford and the Bakken – but this is mostly due to pipeline constraints. 5. When growth is no longer impactful/meaningful (lagging indicator). Goldman Sachs still sees US shale adding 1 million bpd+ at least through 2020. This indicator won’t become clear until the production gains actually start slowing down. The investment bank says that shale-focused companies are still a solid bet through the early 2020s, and it singles out companies like Concho Resources or Pioneer Natural Resources, two large Permian drillers. But by 2025, shale E&Ps will begin to see their stars fade. At that point, Goldman warns investors to pivot out of shale pure-play companies and focus either on diversified companies that have assets outside of shale, or on the integrated oil majors. “[W]e believe future resource additions outside shale deemed low on the cost curve will likely be positively received by investors,” Goldman stated, citing Hess Corp. as a company that might fit this description because of the huge oil fields it is developing with ExxonMobil in offshore Guyana. Put another way, depletion will become “a greater theme” in the future, so companies that are sitting on assets that deplete quickly will fall out of favor. Those that can stave off declines will fare much better. The investment bank still expects US shale to add around 1 million barrels per day each year through 2021 at least. But with early signs of strain, limits on productivity and steeper decline rates, it is clear that the industry’s glory days are numbered.
loganair
18/10/2018
21:59
The Central Bank of Russia has continued getting rid of US Treasury bonds in August. The share of Russian investments in American debt is getting close to zero. The reason is not only about politics and US sanctions against Russia, a broker at Otkritie bank Timur Nigmatullin said. The US Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, which makes American bonds cheaper, he said. “A further sale of US Treasury bonds by Russia will most likely be compensated by buying gold and opening short-term deposits at banks,” he said. The share of precious metals in the country's foreign reserves has reached a record 18 percent, closely approaching the share of dollar investments. India and Turkey have followed Russia's lead. Turkey has dropped out of the top-30 list of holders of American debt, while India has been liquidating its investment for five consecutive months.
loganair
16/10/2018
16:41
Washington’s aggressive policy against Moscow could be a sufficient reason behind the recent fall of the dollar’s share of global central-bank reserves, according to Goldman Sachs. Russia’s Central Bank has sold some $85 billion of its $150 billion holding of the US assets from April through June, says Goldman’s strategist Zach Pandl. The Central Bank of Russia likely sold a large portion of its dollar-denominated assets, and perhaps all of its US Treasuries held by US custodians, and transferred them to euro-denominated and yuan-denominated bonds in the second quarter,” the economist said.
loganair
10/10/2018
14:53
Russian Government budget 2020 & 2021 based on an Urals oil price of $55 giving a budget surplus of 1.1% in 2020 and 0.8% in 2021.
loganair
08/10/2018
19:56
The Russian Ministry of Finance said on Monday it may shift to the use of local currencies with European trade partners. “As we can see the main opportunity which can be realized in the short and medium term is the transition to settlements in national currencies with our European counterparts, including settlements involving the euro, and including for the delivery of our energy commodities,” Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev told reporters. According to him, such a decision would benefit Russia’s European partners in several ways including “This would, on one hand, strengthen the euro’s position as a reserve currency. He suggested that transition to euro payments would be simpler because the euro is already a reserve currency, and it would be logical to expect interest in the idea from European companies.
loganair
05/10/2018
12:03
The foreign reserves of the CBR in percentage terms as of 31 March 2018: US$....43.7% Euro...22.2% Gold...17.2% £.......7.9% Yuan....5.0% Can$....3.0% A$......1.0% Over the first 3 months of 2018 the amount held in Chinese Yuan has risen from 2.8%, and at the beginning of last year was just 0.1%. The reserves amount in US$ has fallen from 45.3% to 43.7% and Euro from 25.7% to 22.2%. The amount held in sterling, Canadian and Australian dollar have remained approximately the same in actual terms, fallen slightly in percentage terms as the total amount of reserves in actual terms has risen. When the next report comes out in 3 months time hopefully we'll know where the sale of the over $50bln of US Treasury's went in to.
loganair
05/10/2018
12:02
The foreign reserves of the CBR in percentage terms as of 31 March 2018: US$....43.7% Euro...22.2% Gold...17.2% £.......7.9% Yuan....5.0% Can$....3.0% A$......1.0% Over the first 3 months of 2018 the amount held in Chinese Yuan has risen from 2.8%, and at the beginning of last year was just 0.1%. The reserves amount in US$ has fallen from 45.3% to 43.7% and Euro from 25.7% to 22.2%. The amount held in sterling, Canadian and Australian dollar have remained approximately the same in actual terms, fallen slightly in percentage terms as the total amount of reserves in actual terms has risen. When the next report comes out in 3 months time hopefully we'll know where the sale of the over $50bln of US Treasury's went in to.
loganair
05/10/2018
11:08
The reasons why I think the sanctions against Russia are not effective: 1. Russia has a low dollar debt and a high dollar income from commodities that especially Europe needs. 2. Russia is not standing alone, there seems to be a pact of countries which are sticking together, Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Serbia & Vietnam with India and Brazil on the sidelines. Trade between Russia and India expected to increase 3 fold by 2025. Also Germany says it is a strong proponent of sanctions when it comes to Russia, however the 20% year on year increase in trade between Russia and Germany both in 2016 and 2017 says otherwise. I think that the sanctions against Russia are having a positive effect on Russia and their economy. For 2019 the Russian budget is based on an average Urals oil price of $60.
loganair
03/10/2018
18:20
Thompson, manager of the Neptune Emerging Markets fund, is betting big on Russian stocks: Ewan Thompson is betting big on Russia, attracted by the country's 'very high yielding and very cheap' stock market. Thompson is holding 16% of his £48.8 million Neptune Emerging Marketsfund in Russian stocks, more than four times their weighting in emerging market indices. With the oil price trading at a four-year high and, in rouble terms, an all-time high, Thompson has three Russian oil and gas companies in his top 10 holdings: Novatek (NVTK.MM), Lukoil (LKOH.MM) and Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM). Shares in the three are up 70%, 45% and 28% respectively since the turn of the year in rouble terms, with Thompson saying they 'barely blinked' in the face of US sanctions against Russia. The rouble is down around 9% against the pound over the same period. Thompson pointed to valuations on the Russian stock market, which he said was being offered at a 50% discount to broader emerging markets. Russia's Micex 10 index currently trades on a price-earnings ratio of just over six times. Russia was also a very profitable market, Thompson argued, as company returns on equity tended to be double that of broader emerging markets thanks to dominance of a few consolidated industries – an ‘oligopolistic’ structure. He argued Russia's cheapness had also provided some protection against the impact of US sanctions. ‘When you have these risks you don’t want those in markets which are priced for the best but when you have them priced for the worst there can be surprising resilience.’ After weighing on the fund's performance last year, as the only major global market to lose money in pound terms, the oil price rally has helped Russia emerge as one of the best performing markets in 2018, second only to the US in pound terms. Thompson's weighting to Russia is second only to the fund's holdings in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, at 28.8% of the fund. That's just below the 31% index weighting, while Thompson's holdings in some other Asian markets are substantially below the index. A 6% weighting to Taiwan is less than half that of the index and he holds 11.2% in South Korean stocks, versus a 14.7% index weighting.
loganair
02/10/2018
13:41
Bloomberg Intelligence - Russia looks undervalued. Brazil - hard to value, wait and see.
loganair
02/10/2018
09:51
Crude prices will likely reach $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and OPEC has no leverage to prevent such a scenario, an analyst has warned. Saudi Arabia has been unable to offset the lost Iranian crude exports. And “this essentially leaves the world’s only swing producer powerless to prevent a supply shock and subsequent price spike in the final quarter of this year,” he added. Iran could lose up to 1.5 million barrels per day when US sanctions kick in early November. In May, Iran sold 2.71 million bpd abroad, nearly three percent of daily global oil consumption. The US is rapidly increasing its production. However, the increase in US production is not enough to offset the loss of Iranian output.
loganair
02/10/2018
09:49
The Moscow Exchange has seen the extension of the last week’s rally. The ruble-traded MOEX index has updated an all-time high on Monday thanks to another jump in oil prices. The Russian ruble has also strengthened in the last two weeks, rebounding after the sell-off triggered by the latest US sanctions. The Russian currency has found its balance around 65.6 against the dollar and 76.1 against the euro. Good numbers in manufacturing are good news for the Russian stock market, too, according to analysts.
loganair
01/10/2018
10:06
Russia’s oil production averaged 11.347 million barrels per day (bpd) between September 1 and 27, up by more than 130,000 bpd compared to August and on course to set a new record-high. Russia is now producing at virtually full capacity. With Urals oil at $80bpd, cash is washing into the Russian Government budget. The surplus of the Russian budget in 2019 will be 1.8 percent of GDP, and the budget will be in surplus in the next three-year period," said First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. This surplus is based on Urals oil at around $60bpd. The macroeconomic outlook notes that GDP growth rate will remain around its current levels by the end of 2018, with economic growth expected to amount to 1.8% by year end. After the economy adjusts to the macroeconomic policy decisions taken earlier, particularly to the VAT increase, the Russian economic growth rates are projected to rise gradually to 3.1% by 2021 mainly due to the advanced growth of capital investments.
loganair
01/10/2018
08:51
Interestingly it seems Germany who say they are a big advocate of the sanctions against Russia seem to be all but completely ignoring them. Trade between Russia and Germany rising by over 20% per year. Month on month record amount of gas being imported by Germany from Russia. Even after strong opposition from other European countries and the USA, the Nord Stream 2 pipe line from Russia to Germany, the Germans have told all concerned is going ahead. And now: Russia and Germany have agreed to connect Germany’s capital Berlin with St. Petersburg, which is often branded Russia’s northern capital has been confirmed by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure. The train will go from Germany to the Russian exclave city of Kaliningrad and then onwards to St. Petersburg, the ministry has confirmed. There is currently no direct railway between St. Petersburg and Berlin. Passengers have to make a two-hour connection in Moscow and spend 32 hours on road. It is also difficult to get from Berlin to Kaliningrad by train - you have to change trains twice. The new route will also slash the travel time between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad by almost a half. Russian Railways has also confirmed the new route which is likely to be a significant boost Russian-German tourism.
loganair
01/10/2018
08:44
Russia and Germany have agreed to connect Germany’s capital Berlin with St. Petersburg, which is often branded Russia’s northern capital. The news, first published in the Russian media, was confirmed by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure. The train will go from Germany to the Russian exclave city of Kaliningrad and then onwards to St. Petersburg, the ministry has confirmed. There is currently no direct railway between St. Petersburg and Berlin. Passengers have to make a two-hour connection in Moscow and spend 32 hours on road. It is also difficult to get from Berlin to Kaliningrad by train - you have to change trains twice. The new route will also slash the travel time between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad by almost a half. Russian Railways has also confirmed the new route, Izvestia daily reports. The countries have given no information about the date of the launch of the railroad which is likely to be a significant boost Russian-German tourism.
loganair
01/10/2018
08:43
Russia and Germany have agreed to connect Germany’s capital Berlin with St. Petersburg, which is often branded Russia’s northern capital. The news, first published in the Russian media, was confirmed by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure. The train will go from Germany to the Russian exclave city of Kaliningrad and then onwards to St. Petersburg, the ministry has confirmed. There is currently no direct railway between St. Petersburg and Berlin. Passengers have to make a two-hour connection in Moscow and spend 32 hours on road. It is also difficult to get from Berlin to Kaliningrad by train - you have to change trains twice. The new route will also slash the travel time between St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad by almost a half. Russian Railways has also confirmed the new route, Izvestia daily reports. The countries have given no information about the date of the launch of the railroad, but it is likely to be a significant boost Russian-German tourism.
loganair
27/9/2018
13:21
Trade turnover between Russia and China has been rapidly growing and is expected to reach $100 billion this year. Moscow seeks to double the figure in the next six years. “It is planned to increase Russia’s trade with China to $200 billion and Chinese investment in the Russian economy to $15 billion,” said a document for the government’s activities for the period up to 2024. The document, released on Thursday, also envisages boosting trade with other countries. Russia’s trade with India may reach $30 billion by 2024. Trade with the Middle East and North African nations is expected to amount to $50 billion, while trade with sub-Saharan countries could hit $7 billion, and Latin America, $20 billion. China is Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Russian international trade in 2017. Bilateral trade between the two countries grew by 31.5 percent, reaching $87 billion last year. They are also promoting settlements in ruble and yuan, bypassing the US dollar and other Western currencies. In 2017, nine percent of payments for supplies from Russia to China were made in rubles; Russian companies paid 15 percent of Chinese imports in renminbi (yuan).
loganair
27/9/2018
09:42
Total sees oil prices going to $100 per barrel.
loganair
18/9/2018
14:37
The recent growth in the Russian currency has helped the ruble-traded MOEX index reach an all-time high on Tuesday. The index rose to 2,390 points for the first time in history after the ruble strengthened to 67.7 against the dollar and 79.1 against the euro. Earlier in September, the Russian currency had suffered a deep plunge against reserve currencies amid a new US sanctions threat. Moscow Exchange’s dollar-denominated RTS index also rose on Tuesday. It reached 1,111 points for the first time since August. “The MOEX index surpassed a historical high due to the strengthening of the ruble, which led to a rise in the price of ruble shares of Mechel, Rusal, Alrosa, AFK Sistema, Magnit, Sberbank,” said Artem Deev, leading analyst at Amarkets. The companies the analyst mentioned are some of the largest enterprises in Russia, in areas such as banking, retail and mining, and their well-being is important for the Russian economy and stock market. The share of oil and gas sector securities in the MOEX index exceeds 50 percent, and the weight of Sberbank shares is more than 12 percent, which has resulted in the index rallying this week. The Russian stock market has every chance of further growth due to the stability of oil prices.
loganair
12/9/2018
19:19
I see that the price of Urals Oil is and has been trading around the $77 per barrel which is excellent news for the Russian Government budget and all this oil and gas is bringing Russia in truck loads of dollars and euros.
loganair
05/9/2018
12:37
All good for Russia and JRS - Oil expected to maintain an average of $70 per barrel through to 2020 then rise to an average of $80 during the early years of the 2020's. Almost every month Gazprom is exporting a record amount of gas to Europe. In 2016, Russia became the world leader in wheat exports. Since the early 2000s, its share of the world wheat market has quadrupled. Russia’s agriculture exports have surged by almost a third in the first five months of 2018. The country exported 29.5 percent more agriculture and food products, worth $9.5 billion, than in the same period last year. In particular, the export of wheat through May surged to 17.1 million tons worth $3.1 billion. Saudi Arabia has announced plans to become a major hub for Russian agricultural products in the Middle East. Overall, agricultural production in Russia is projected to grow three percent this year, from last year’s 120.7 million tons. That would be the best-ever harvest for Russia, even counting the Soviet era.
loganair
22/8/2018
20:01
In the second half of 2017, the amount of Chinese Yuan held as reserves by the CBR rose from 0.1% to 2.8%. Even the percentage amount the CBR hold in Sterling has also risen from 7.6% to 8.3%. The amount that the CBR hold in Euro terms has fallen from 32.2% to 21.7%. They no longer hold any Japanese Yen or Swiss Francs, however their holdings in both the Canadian dollar at 3.1% and Australian dollar at 1.0% remains constant.
loganair
09/8/2018
10:31
andyj - Many of the big Russian companies are making record profits. Gazprom is exporting a record amount of gas to Europe. The Russia Government Budget is going to be one of the few countries that will be in Surplus.
loganair
09/8/2018
04:14
More sanctions with the likelihood of more draconian sanctions in November. Difficult to see the fund making any definitive upward movement, despite the incredible potential here.
andyj
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