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JRS Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc

83.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc LSE:JRS London Ordinary Share GB0032164732 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 83.00 82.00 84.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1901 to 1920 of 6450 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
04/6/2016
10:36
Looks like Moscow-living American portfolio manager David Herne got his Russia call right on the money. He’s beating the market this year.

Herne was featured in the FORBES Investment Guide in December. Not that he was bragging about his sober take on the Wild East. He’s a humble guy. Still, Herne predicted that Russia would turn the corner at some point in 2016. If sanctions were removed — and they are unlikely to be removed — that would merely be a bonus.

“We never promise something we can’t deliver,” Herne said to me over a late breakfast at the Crowne Plaza in Moscow’s financial district last October. He runs the Specialized Research And Investment Group. “I know the Russian market will be worth much more than it is today. I just can’t tell you when.”

How about now.

His Russian Growth fund is up 23.76% year-to-date ending May 31. That beats the Market Vectors Russia exchange traded fund, up 16.7%; and the MSCI Emerging Markets, gold, oil, and the S&P 500. Only Brazil has done better after hitting the floor in December.

He’s earned some bragging rights for the first five months of the year. One of the company’s Herne mentioned as a must-have was Bashneft , listed on the Moscow Exchange and only open to those with access to a lower broker. It’s up 47% in rubles. That’s not all due to forex. The dollar has only declined around 8.5% to the ruble this year.

loganair
01/6/2016
10:29
firtashia - I read the articles you post with interest, however they do seem to me unrealisticlly negative about what is going to happen to Russia and it´s economy.

Russia is having no problem in exporting its two most important products, Oil and gas, in fact it is exporting record amounts of gas to Europe, especially Germany and it seems to me will continue to do so as Germany slowly cloeses down all its Nuclear power plants.

loganair
30/5/2016
15:43
Bank of Russia Predicts Return to Economic Growth in Coming Months
Print
Alert
By Andrey Ostroukh


MOSCOW--Russia's economy is expected to return to growth in the next few months, the Bank of Russia said on Monday.

Hit by Western sanctions and a slump in oil prices, Russia's commodity-dependent economy surprised on the upside in the first quarter by falling 1.2% on the year, compared with a consensus call for a 2% drop. As oil prices recover, chances that the recession might soon be over are seen to be growing.

"We expect the economy to enter a path of slow recovery in the next few months provided that there are no new external shocks," the central bank said in a regular report on economic trends.

Meanwhile, inflation is slowing thanks to a more steady ruble. There is still a risk, however, that annual inflation will exceed the central bank's 4% target by the end of 2017, it said.

knowing
27/5/2016
16:12
AFP - Germany floats 'step by step' reduction of Russia sanctions:

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Friday floated the possibility of a "step by step" reduction of EU sanctions against Russia if there is progress on ending the conflict in Ukraine.

"I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the sanctions step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters in Tallinn.

"It is not our aim to maintain the sanctions but to resolve the conflict."

EU sanctions imposed on Russia's banking, defence and energy sectors over its actions in neighbouring Ukraine expire in July.

Extending them will require the unanimous agreement of all 28 member states, and EU leaders are expected to discuss at a summit next month.

But on Thursday, Steinmeier said the European Union was facing difficult talks on extending the sanctions because of the increased resistance of some member states.

He did not name names, but Italy and Hungary have been among the most sceptical while Poland and the Baltic states -- fearful of Russia's actions in their backyard -- have repeatedly pressed hard for sanctions to maintain pressure on Moscow.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking in Japan, also said Thursday that the Group of Seven has no plan to withdraw its sanctions on Russia.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told a German daily last week that she expects an extension of the punitive measures.

Germany and France helped broker peace accords for Ukraine signed in the Belarusian capital Minsk in 2015.

They call for a ceasefire along with a range of political, economic and social measures to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine that has claimed more than 9,300 lives since April 2014.

loganair
26/5/2016
08:29
Russia’s economy will return to growth by the end of 2016, Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said at a meeting with representatives of business community of Slovakia.

"We expect that in the end of the second quarter we will return to growth and in general we expect that by the end of the year the dynamics of GDP will be about zero," he said.

Earlier it was reported referring to the documents for the meeting of the Economic Council under the Russian President, the Economic Development Ministry states stagnation of the Russian economy but believe that the decline is largely over, and the economic cycle is close to the lowest point.

The ministry marks signs of recovery in the Russian economy, and expects that it will continue in the medium term.

According to the Federal Statistics Service, in the first quarter Russian GDP decline by 1.2%. The Economic Development Ministry predicts GDP decline of 0.2% by the end of the year.

Ulyukayev said Russia’s GDP fell 0.7% in April 2016.

"We passed the bottom in the middle of last year," he said, adding that "in 2015 GDP decreased by 3.7% while in the first quarter [of 2016] GDP dropped by 1.2% and by 0.7% in April."

loganair
26/5/2016
08:23
Latest figures out of Russia's central bank state that it has increased its gold reserves in April by 500,000 ounces (15.6 tonnes), which is exactly the same amount the bank reported as its reserve increase in March as well. While February's reserve increase was reported at 300,000 ounces, January's was 700,000 ounces. This means that the average month-on-month increase this year has been 500,000 ounces suggesting that the bank may be planning to increase reserves by this amount on a regular monthly basis throughout the year. This would put a projected annual reserve increase of 6 million ounces - or around 187 tonnes.

China increased its holdings by 10.9 tonnes. The only other central bank which appears to be buying gold on a regular basis is that of Kazakhstan which has been adding to its gold reserves at about 2.7 tonnes a month.

China is the world’s No.1 gold producer at about 460 tonnes annually and Russia No.3 with 268 tonnes and Kazakhstan No.13 at 64 tonnes, so all three countries’ central banks are perhaps buying up a proportion of their own new mined gold output. However gold demand in China for consumption and by the commercial banks is such that it is also a very substantial gold importer – probably around 1,400 tonnes we know about last year from other countries’ (and Hong Kong) export statistics plus other data, whereas Russia and Kazakhstan are mostly exporters.

Russia anticipates expanding its own gold output over the years – a figure of annual production of 400 tonnes a year by 2030 has been reported, although this is sufficiently far off for it to be a very vague target given most of Russia’s production is by non-state-owned entities and thus not really subject to this kind of advance planning.

loganair
26/5/2016
08:11
Net profit grew 60% YoY. Phosagro (JRS 10th Largest Investment) published consolidated 1Q16 IFRS results yesterday. Revenues grew 12% YoY to RUB56 bln ($ 751 mln). EBITDA grew 3% YoY to RUB 25 bln ($ 338 mln), while the EBITDA margin contracted 4 ppt YoY to 45%. Net profit grew 60% YoY to RUB22.6 bln ($ 303 mln), The BoD recommended that shareholders approve a dividend of RUB8,159 mln, which represents a RUB 63/share or a dividend yield of close to 2%.
loganair
26/5/2016
08:10
Impressive delivery and better profitability outlook - COR below expectations partially due to methodology change. Sberbank (JRS largest Holding) reported 1Q16 IFRS results yesterday. Net income came 11% above the consensus, with ROAE hitting 19% instead of around 17% forecasted. The top line lagged estimates due to unexpectedly big losses in FX and provisions for other assets. However, costs turned out also 8% below forecasts (with C/I at 38%, as we modeled). The provisions charge for loans was the biggest positive surprise, c.30% below the consensus, with COR of just 1.7% vs over 2% expected, partially thanks to a methodology change, and partially – to some provisions recovered for Mechel. NIM rose 40 bps QoQ, 10 bps more than forecasted, however, NII was almost in line with expectations, as the loan portfolio shrank QoQ – by 1.2% for corporate and by 0.2% for retail loans.
loganair
20/5/2016
10:10
Manufacturing segment posted growth for the first time since December 2014:

Industrial production returned to growth YoY in April... According to Rosstat data released yesterday industrial production dropped 5.6% MoM in April after 9.1% MoM growth in March but accelerated to 0.5% YoY growth in April from minus 0.5% YoY in March. The figure was in line with the Interfax consensus. Seasonally adjusted industrial production was unchanged MoM in April after 0.4% MoM growth in March and 0.1% MoM growth in February. All in all, production dropped 0.1% YoY in 4M16.


Oil price recovery promises recovery in Russian market. The Russian market started yesterday lower and the rout in equities continued throughout the day. The RTS Index collapsed 4.5% by the close of trade as a number of negative factors coincided: the US dollar strengthening after the release of the Fed minutes sent the ruble, oil and other commodities lower; expectations that Russian state-owned companies and Gazprom first-and-foremost would pay healthy dividends based on a 50% of net income rule were not realized and that reduced already low investor appetite for Russian equities.

loganair
17/5/2016
11:44
MORGAN STANLEY: Things will only get worse for Russia's battered economy:

Morgan Stanley has a warning for Russia: Don't expect things to get better anytime soon.

The world's largest country (geographically speaking) has been mired in a financial crisis since oil prices started to crash in mid-2014, and according to Morgan Stanley economist Alina Slyusarchuk that crisis has some way to run yet.

In the bank's latest chartbook on the country's economic situation, Slyusarchuk predicts that Russia will stay deep in recession this year, the federal deficit will widen, and the current account surplus will continue to decrease.

When Russia entered its current financial crisis in 2014, many analysts predicted that the crisis would follow a similar pattern to the one witnessed in 2009, when the country's economy recovered strongly in a V-shaped rebound (when you mapped it on a chart, the size of the economy drew a V shape). But that recovery hasn't materialised, and a prediction Morgan Stanley made in January 2015 has now come true.

"Looking ahead, barring a strong rebound in oil prices or the lifting of sanctions, we see the recession lasting much longer through 2016, unlike the V-Shaped rebound in 2009, particularly given the rising risk of further sanctions," Slyusarchuk wrote in a note soon after Russia's financial crisis started.

Morgan Stanley expects the vulnerability of the Russian economy to increase in 2016. The Morgan Stanley Vulnerability Scoring Index, which tracks how resilient countries are to economic shocks, shows that since 2014 Russia has become far more vulnerable.

Here's the key extract from Slyusarchuk (emphasis ours):

Given the renewed and now protracted oil weakness, we expect further moderate deterioration in the VSI indicator. We expect growth to stay in negative territory at -2.1%Y in 2016, the federal deficit to widen to 4.2% of GDP and the current account surplus to narrow from 5.6% of GDP in 2015 to 3.8% in 2016.

Russia's economic performance continues to rely heavily on oil. As the third-largest oil producer — behind only the US and Saudi Arabia — Russia sees its financial performance inextricably linked to moves in the price of crude.

For instance, when oil-producing nations failed to agree a deal to freeze production in April at their much-anticipated meeting in Qatar, Russia's markets took a beating. The day after the meeting, both the ruble and the country's stock market crashed as a result of a slump in oil prices.

As the oil markets start to rebalance, however, things could get marginally better for Russia if the price of oil rises.

loganair
17/5/2016
11:40
Bloomberg - Russia's economy contracted by less than expected in the first quarter of 2016 in a sign it may be stabilizing.

The Russian state statistics service said on May 16 that the economy declined by 1.2 percent from a year earlier, after falling by 3.8 percent in the final quarter of 2015.

Russia's economy has been in a deep recession since 2014 due to a collapse in oil prices and Western sanctions imposed because of Moscow's aggressions in Ukraine.

But now with oil prices at their highest level in more than six months, near $49 a barrel in London trading, and the ruble up by 13 percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year, analysts say the worst seems to be over.

"The acute phase of the crisis is now over," said Liza Ermolenko, analyst at London's Capital Economic consultancy.

"The annual growth rate could return to positive territory towards the end of the year.... Even so, given the numerous headwinds facing the Russian economy, we still expect the recovery to be disappointingly weak."

loganair
17/5/2016
10:14
Dividend story for state-owned companies is over. The rally in oil prices pushed Russian equities higher yesterday and the RTS Index advanced 0.8% by the close. The Brent oil price rallied more than 3% intraday, topping $49/bbl on expectations of the oil market reaching equilibrium, as it continues the strong performance at the end of last week. The ruble strengthened as a result pushing consumer and banking stocks higher. Oil and gas names however missed the party as instead of an expected 50% of net income (the highest figure between IFRS or RAS according to the government order), state-owned oil& gas companies managed to find a way to pay less. In particular, media reported today that Gazprom will pay only 50% of RAS as dividend for 2015 which is much less that 50% of its IFRS net income. The “Dividend rule” was one of the main investment themes of April-May, but it is over now with a taste of disappointment for the market.
loganair
16/5/2016
11:34
Agreed, however the article forgot to mention all the Russian money flowing through the Icelandic banks and Chelsea football club is a good way of cleaning money.

Most countries have there gangsters, even the UK or USA who are laundering billions upon billions of dollars.

loganair
16/5/2016
10:45
Goldman Sachs who have been so bearish for so long on the price of oil, continually saying that the price will fall to just $20 per barrel are now all of a sudden turned bullish saying they predict oil will trade at around $50 for the second half of 2016 and $60 the second half of 2017 which bodes well for Russia as will any lifting of the sanctions.
loganair
13/5/2016
12:32
Dividend stories along with the privatization saga are in the market’s focus. Gazprom’s (JRS 2nd Largest Investment) dividend payment is still unclear even after yesterday’s news that the Economy Ministry ordered it should channel 50% of IFRS net profit for dividends. A final decision is expected on 19 May when Gazprom’s Board of Directors will recommend dividends. President Putin signed a decree yesterday which allows the privatization of 10.9% of VTB shares and 10.9% in Alrosa (JRS 6th Largest Investment).
loganair
13/5/2016
12:29
PhosAgro (JRS 12th Largest Investment), one of the world's leading vertically-integrated phosphate-based fertilizer producers, announces that MSCI has included Global Depositary Receipts ("GDRs") on PhosAgro shares into the MSCI Russia and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes.

PhosAgro CEO Andrey Guryev said: "PhosAgro is the first company to be added to the MSCI Russia index in the last two years.

"We have worked hard to make PhosAgro the most efficient company in its sector, increase the liquidity of our shares and GDRs, and make the Company's investment story more attractive. PhosAgro has consistently delivered, and even over-delivered, on its promises to investors in terms of dividend payments.

"We see growing interest in PhosAgro from the investment community, which is the best measure of the effectiveness of the Company's management and the Board of Directors. It reflects our success in implementing PhosAgro's long-term strategy, as well as the Company's unique competitive advantages, the most important of which are the low cash-cost of production and the high quality of our fertilizers.

"We expect inclusion in the benchmark MSCI Russia index to enable PhosAgro to gain access to an even broader range of international and Russian investors, which will undoubtedly influence the Company's market capitalisation."

loganair
10/5/2016
12:10
'Museum of Emotions' to Open in St.Petersburg:

An interactive “Museum of Emotions” is about to open its doors in St.Petersburg.

The project will develop visitors' “emotional literacy” by triggering intense positive and negative emotions, museum organizers claim.

While the exact exhibits remain a secret to the public, photographs leaked on social media suggest that visitors could be offered the chance to rest in virtual daisy meadows, to see themselves lying in a coffin, or to view thousands of reflections of themselves in a room of mirrors, planet-today.ru reported.

The artist behind the project, Alexei Sergienko, said that all exhibits at the museum were created to trigger as many human emotions as possible. “In one hour, people will be able to feel more than they would in their entire lifetime,” he said.

loganair
10/5/2016
12:08
China Eastern in last week’s schedule update has filed planned Shanghai Pu Dong – St. Petersburg route, currently scheduled from 21JUN16. The Skyteam member plans to operate this route 3 times a week, using Boeing 767 aircraft.

MU259 PVG1500 – 2105LED 767 246
MU260 LED2305 – 1330+1PVG 767 246

loganair
09/5/2016
06:26
"This will also be Putin´s last term in office, in my opinion he will like to do a few good things for Russia that he will be remembered for, unlike what is happening in Brazil at the moment"

Strangely, Loganair, I remember Putin for invading his neighbours and having economic sanctions slapped on his country. I don't remember Brazil doing any of this at the moment? And why do you believe it will be Putin's last term in office? How do you think he will leave?

firtashia
07/5/2016
10:51
There is the up and coming Russian presidential elections where it is likely Putin will still have a majority, but the lowest percentage of the vote he´s ever got.

This will also be Putin´s last term in office, in my opinion he will like to do a few good things for Russia that he will be remembered for, unlike what is happening in Brazil at the moment.

The big question will be, who will replace Putin????

loganair
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