Jpmorgan Japanese Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 31/7/2007 08:53

NIKKI up, Dow up over 100 pts.

But we need the Nikkei to start to act on its own. It need not always be following the US, which is at a different part of the Cycle. at some point it has to rally onwards.

[tiraider] 30/7/2007 16:28

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 27TH JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS: JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 247.98

[hectorp] 30/7/2007 09:46

I may be wise then to see how the Japan markets react on Monday next.
H.

[ilancas] 29/7/2007 21:45

From the Telegraph this evening:

"An early prediction suggested that the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Buddhist-backed New Komeito had won only 47 of the 121 seats being contested, well below the 64 needed to maintain their hold on the 242-seat House of Councillors.

The main opposition group, the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP), was forecast to have taken 59 seats.

If confirmed, those figures would be dire for the government. Mr Abe, who took over from the flamboyant Junichiro Koizumi only ten months ago, said he accepted responsibility for an "extremely disappointing" result."

Full article:

[tiraider] 29/7/2007 17:20

Nikkei sinks to three-month low
By David Turner in Tokyo

Published: July 27 2007 03:57 | Last updated: July 27 2007 10:28

Japan's Nikkei share index plunged to a three-month low on Friday as investors brushed aside generally strong earnings results, concentrating instead on the sharp slide overnight in US and European markets.

The Nikkei 225 plummeted 2.4 per cent to 17,283.81 while the broader Topix sank 2.2 per cent to 1,699.71. The overnight slide in global markets included a 3.2 per cent plunge in London's FTSE index, the most severe fall in four years.

Many of the sharpest falls were in the export sector, because of fears about the global economy.

The behaviour of the Japanese stock market was exemplified by Canon, which draws most of its earnings from abroad. Despite a 19 per cent rise in net profit to a record high for the six months to June, the company's shares plunged 5.5 per cent to Y6,510.

Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker and one of Japan's largest exporters, was down 1.6 per cent at Y7,260.

Shipping, one of the most export-focused sectors of all, dived 2.6 per cent. Mitsui OSK Lines, one of Japan's biggest shippers, dropped 2.7 per cent to Y1,782.

But domestic stocks also fell on fears the ruling Liberal Democratic-led coalition may lose control of the Upper House after Sunday's elections, resulting in political turmoil. The banking sector dropped 2.2 per cent, with Mitsubishi UFJ, the world's largest bank by assets, sinking 3 per cent to Y1,290,000.

Despite the day's losses, Koji Yamamoto, president of State Street Global Advisors Japan, said foreign institutional investors remained interested in Japan because of "long-term factors". These included improvement in corporate governance, government reforms, and the continuing economic recovery.

Shoji Hirakawa, equity strategist at UBS in Tokyo, blamed worries about the US subprime market, as well as election-related concerns, for the fall in Japanese stocks.

But he said if the coalition led by Liberal Democratic party lost its majority only narrowly, share prices were set to rise on expectations the LDP would shelve plans within the next few years to raise consumption tax. This would boost household spending, increasing corporate earnings.

Weak consumption has helped keep Japan mired in deflation, albeit very mild. Official figures on Friday showed that core consumer prices fell 0.1 per cent on the year in July, as expected. Financial markets think the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates next month regardless of Japan's failure to shake off deflation.

But if the ruling coalition lost by a wide margin, share prices would fall on fears "there might be a little bit of a problem passing bills".

Many analysts think the coalition will lose its majority, though they disagree on the likely extent of the rout.

[watwungyi] 29/7/2007 16:40

i think recent panic in the us and european market means investors need to be a bit more imaginative, sophisticated and perhaps more co-operative. and in this climate my intuition is to look for out-of-favour stocks, sectors or regions. one justification is these out-of-favour stocks usually have sane valuation, free from liquidity or takeover premium. in this regard, japan fits well and also if you are a sort of get-rich-slowly, then maybe you might want to look at merill lynch new energy technology. i still believe commodities have a lot to run, recent hikes in commodity prices made me nervous to make a commitment in miners and commodity stocks, except by buying a few shares monthly. but another sector which has been out of favour and drew my attention recently is biotech sectors. they have been so popular in the early eighties but then they were dismissed almost altogether after technology bust. biotech firms have a very good future not only because new therapies will invariably come from genetic studies but also in non-medicinal agricultural sector, new methods for highly-productive agricultural products(the demand of which will keep rising with rising population and rising energy needs) will originate from genetic studies. And these bio-tech firms are also intersting to me. I found one it (finsbury emerging bio-tech trust) which is run by experts in micro-biology with cfas. any ideas?

[hectorp] 29/7/2007 14:23

hagd: Overall I agree with your comments and observations re Japan in the above post.
Maybe short term ragarding the chart above for this Find, the following is my view.
I like 'high volume' - be it buys or sells, there have been some million vol days recently quite strong. I dont see the MAcD rising much, but it is widdling along a bit. But it IS diverging upwards compared with the RSI.
One of my favourites is the RSI. In this case there are two strong RSI lows in 2006 ( as low as 10!) this year only as low as 20. At the moment the RSI is still slipping down and is 35.
- I would tend to buy ( If I do) on a turn up of the RSI, which means I prefer to wait for two rising share days in succession before coming in.
OK one misses the 'bottom' but avoids possible further drift ( to 20! or 10!)
I'd really intend to hold for 1 -3 years if at all possible.
- Looking back it is odd that the Market was so high in early 2006, but all helps to show where is might be in a year. My tareg would be the 270p resistnce of recent times however.
Even that is a 50P rise! which is not easy to find now for example even in a good FTSE Mid cap growth stock.
regds
H.

[haveagoodday] 29/7/2007 11:52

On the chart, note that the MACD has been steadily rising as the price has been falling. That's positive divergence. There is also a large falling wedge pattern. Recently, it has seen above average volume. The conclusion of that pattern is normally a sharp upward chart break.
All the ingredients are there.......

[haveagoodday] 29/7/2007 11:43

Hello Hectorp,

well done for your migration from NRK!

It's cheap principally because of the devaluation of the Yen, and has run to a discount. After the last few days though, as you know, that devaluation has abruptly stopped and reversed.

Credit crunch in Japan? Quite the reverse, Japan has been the world's banker and the money is now flowing back as the US and UK have burnt themselves out. China is now the main trading partner, and growing fast.

The chart is finding support around this 220 area. When it rises that discount quickly disappears and goes to a premium. (when it falls, the opposite happens).

Japan officially has 0% inflation. That is disputable though, as The Yen has devalued, gold has risen, the oil price in USD has risen. 0% - are the figures correct? Regardless, at sometime in the foreseeable future interest rates will rise proportionally by 50%, from 0.5 tp 0.75%, that will no doubt accelerate the Yen's rise.

Japan is finally recovering from a 17 year depression and the Treasury is reluctant to stop the sharp growth. GDP is 5.0% and rising.

That's the difference between Japan and western economies (US and UK anyway). They are faltering and going into recession, Japan is coming out the other side.

It's one big market as you say, but the economies are opposite ends of the financial spectrum. The turmoil in the markets is due to investors swapping sides as they realise what's happening.

As far as I'm concerned it's better to be on the side that's going up. When it does, most Japanese funds will follow. Why this one? A large fund £0.5bn, small spread and well managed.

Have a look at recent announcements. It has been purchasing a lot of shares for cancellation. That says a lot about where the managers think it's going.

rgds

ps if you do buy, buy in the afternoon. In the mornings the spread is wide and narrows as the day progresses, so with no change you get in a couple of pence cheaper.

[hectorp] 29/7/2007 10:54

Buy JAPAN Funds. ??
watty could be very right.
The rising yen, but will the World not suffer as a whole when the US and Europe suffer eg from the credit crunch?
Would Japanese companies be fairly immune? its one big market.
Still i can see the advantages. But why is thus TRust at nearly 30p discount to NAV? why has it fallen from January high?
If it is so desireable what is the chart telling us about the outlook?
It SEEMS cheap.
WHat is the P/E of Japan companies, is it lower than the UK average of 13-14%?
If someone can give some replies, I may consider buying these Funds.
regds
H.

[haveagoodday] 29/7/2007 08:42

Morning Watty, hope business is going well for you in China.
rgds

[watwungyi] 29/7/2007 06:17

Hello everyone,

i feel sorry for equities bulls in the west. but those who are investing jap equities will have a lot to smile about soon. Jap companies have been accumulating cash for a few years now. But as yen has been suppressed, the companies can afford to good spending on capital expenditure which will no doubt put Jap businesses very good advantages in the long run. Secondly, the strengthening of yen, which i strongly believe is an eventuality, will suddenly strengthen their balance sheet and hence their values. i don't have an expertise to look at individual jap stocks, so i just buy its which are trading at good discounts as well as a tracker fund from hsbc.
while jap market looks increasingly interesting, the opposite is happening here in uk, europe and us. in the past few years, very few business pay attention on capital expenditure. instead, increasing dividends on borrowing money has become a norm here. home depot borrowed money for share buyback. tate and lyle, i used to hold, return it sales proceed to investors rather than knocking off debt or other expenditure. in one word, businesses here became too short-sighted in the past few years which alone, let alone credit problems, is a good reason to take extra caution before buying equities here.
i hardly know anything about technical analysis, but some of them who knows have been talking positive things about this one. fingers crossed.

gl,

from mild western china

[haveagoodday] 28/7/2007 15:56

Yen up 10 on the week (240 now) v GBP as carry trade unwinds



What the Yen does against the £, the dow follows

[tiraider] 26/7/2007 14:11

Carry trade unwinding?

Yen strongly up today at 244

[hosede] 25/7/2007 15:17

Watwungyi
Yes I should have but even they have gone nowhere eg SF33 which is the one I watch. I hoped/expected JMF and BGFD to do better than a tracker not worse! Big mistake

[tiraider] 24/7/2007 12:19

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 23rd JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:

JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 250.81

[haveagoodday] 19/7/2007 23:05

I can see a falling wedge in the chart, MACD has been rising as the price has been falling - postive divergence.

Falling wedges are always difficult to call, but worth bearing in mind should JFJ start moving upwards. If confirmed, the rise would be fast. On the other hand I could be completely wrong!!




free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[haveagoodday] 19/7/2007 22:56

Hello Wattie, nice to see you here too.

Latest tonight from the US, BS $50 - $100bn losses. There's still $1000bn of cheap mortgage deals ending this autumn / winter / spring. Expect carry trade to be unwound rapidly. lots in FT,
rgds
___________________________________________________________



Last Updated: Thursday, 19 July 2007, 19:55 GMT 20:55 UK

Fed warns of $100bn credit losses

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that the crisis in the US sub-prime lending market could cost up to $100bn. In a second day of testimony to Congress, Mr Bernanke said credit losses associated with sub-prime mortgage failures were "significant".

Wall Street is nervous about the exposure of banks and other lenders to the riskier sub-prime market.

Earlier this month Bear Stearns bailed out two sub-prime focused hedge funds.

It has since said one of them has "very little value" and the other is now worthless.

Downbeat note

Fears that the downturn in the housing market, prompted by more people's inability to pay their mortgages, will cause instability and retrenchment in the wider economy have grown in recent weeks.

Mr Bernanke, in two days of testimony before US legislators, has sounded a persistently downbeat note on the state of the housing market and the woes of the sub-prime sector, which have led to the collapse of about 30 lenders.

More than a million Americans lost their homes last year

Senator Robert Menendez

"The credit losses associated with sub-prime have come to light and they are fairly significant," Mr Bernanke told a Senate Committee.

"Some estimates are in the order of between $50bn and $100bn of losses."

The Fed's handling of the sub-prime market, which it regulates, came under fire from Senators who argued it should have done more to protect vulnerable consumers from inappropriate and improper mortgage practices.

"More than a million Americans lost their homes last year," said Senator Robert Menendez.

"In my mind, this is not just simply a time for suggestions, it is a time for solutions."

Mr Bernanke said the Fed was reviewing current regulations on lending practices in a "responsible" manner.

Wider problems?

The Fed remained "alert" for any signs that housing weakness may destabilise the economy as a whole, Mr Bernanke added.

It has already acknowledged the impact of reduced activity in the housing market on consumer spending, cutting its forecast for economic growth this year.

It has also said it expects the unemployment rate to rise from 4.5% to 4.75% by year-end.

Despite the impact of the crisis in the sub-prime mortgage market, the US economy has performed better in the second quarter of the year than the first.

The economy has continued to create new jobs at a healthy clip while the number of unemployment benefit claimants is now at its lowest since early May.

But the Conference Board, publishing its latest economic analysis on Thursday, said that it expected economic growth to slow in the next few months.

[tiraider] 19/7/2007 16:48

JPM bought back another 100,000

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc has today purchased 100,000 ordinary
shares for cancellation at 222.90 pence per share.
______________________________________________________________

solid support building at 221. NAV 249.5 today.

With the collapse of the Bear Stearn funds beginning to spread to other markets, and more hedgies going down, the carry trade could be nearer to reversing than we think.

[a0148009] 18/7/2007 13:01

Sterling has appreciated 25% against the Yen over the last eighteen months from

Y200 to Y250 worth 60p or so on the share price

It wont always be like that the 'carry trade' will get so out of control something will happen to call the turn.

Also company buying in treasury stock in the past their timing has been good.

[tiraider] 18/7/2007 11:53

Bear Sterns funds "written off" could spark off the carry trade unwinding
_____________________________________________________________________

Metals - Gold up as the dollar falls to new all-time low against the euro UPDATE
(Updates prices, adds details)
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold was up slightly in early trade as the
dollar fell to a new all-time low against the euro, though gains were capped by
waning interest from physical buyers as prices rose.
Gold tends to move in the opposite direction to the dollar, as it as seen as
an alternative asset to the most common reserve currency.
"The tone has been far more bullish this morning... as the dollar lurched
lower following reports of hedge fund losses from Bear Stearns, increasing
speculation that investors are losing faith in the greenback," said
TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore.
At 10.45 am, spot gold was trading at 667.60 usd an ounce, compared with 665
usd in late New York trade yesterday.
However, gold's gains have been limited by low levels of buying by jewellers
in the seasonally quiet summer months, and the high prices putting off bargain
hunters.
"I don't think gold has been as responsive as it could have been," said
Barclays analyst Suki Cooper. "It's a slow period for gold, unlike Q1 when we
saw really strong physical demand."
Market players are also poised ahead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress, and the release of US core
inflation data later today, as they look for clues to the future direction of
the dollar.
Oil prices have also eased from close to all-time record highs, weighing
slightly on bullion.
Gold tends to rise in line with oil prices, as it is seen as an inflationary
hedge against higher energy costs.
However, with the dollar continuing to be placed under pressure, some
analysts see gold prices continuing to rise in the short-term.
"There's probably still room for a move to the upside - gold prices have a
stronger correlation with the dollar than with oil at the moment," said Cooper
at Barclays.
Among other precious metals, platinum is flat at 1,308 usd, underpinned by
news that South African mine workers rejected a pay offer from Northam Platinum,
increasing the likelihood of strike action.
Its sister metal palladium fell to 361 usd against 366 usd.
Silver was edged up to 12.96 usd against 12.93 usd.

[watwungyi] 18/7/2007 09:23

By tracker fund hosede. HSBC Japanese tracker funds are there. But the probelm is weak yen. it needs to get strengthened.

[hosede] 17/7/2007 12:19

Its very frustrating (to put it mildly!)to see the NI225 climbing steadily while JFJ and BGFD which I also hold are going nowhere - got out of FJV as it was even worse. NAVs quoted in Yen would be a useful addition - then at least you could quantify the currency part of the loss

[watwungyi] 14/7/2007 13:31

haveagoodday,

good to see you here. i am not a veteran investor as you said i appear to claim to be. btw, i almost finished reading the shipley's japanese money tree, a good book from ft which i would recommend anyone interested in investing in japan.
the author pointed out interesting sectors to look value in particulars. real estate and technology with strong protection by means of intellectual property rights.
Some key events to look out. Japanese investors've been sending their money abraod because of their perception that valued can't be found in the country. so there's a large capital outflow which weakens yen and result in unattractive returns from domestic investment. but that is going to change as japanese economy shows consistent signs of sustained recovery and jap investors will take profit from overseas investment and put their money in domestic investment and that should be good for japanese investment.
and next is interest rates rise by BoJ which should be a good thing, first many companies are valued on the assumption of deflation, which means market cap for the companies are less than their NAV. But interest rate hike means their worth should be revalued and boost share price, this should reinforce capital inflow and visciious circle began.
so two things we need to look out, capital inflow and interest rate( last week it was 8 1) so there is no certainty in August decision. But it will come soon.

two invst trust in particular: jfj and melchoir jap trust, some may opt for fidelity jap values. anyone any interesting investment here. but for me for the next ten years, vietnam(+southeast asia) and japan are good places to invest in Asia pacific, and aus and nz to a lesser extent due to seemingly undiminshing commodity bull market.

by the way, i have been making heavy losses betting against dow jones and ftse though i haven't closed my short positions. thursday rally was more of hedge funds desperately trying to cover their shor hedges and that reinforced the gains which follow, unfortunately for me, the following day. I am not panic but apparently nervous. next week there will be lots of inflation data to come out and i don't think we'll see any positve for those expecting rate cut because friday import prices data show they are on the increase. and wsj reported china's disinflation pressure is waning. but of course it's market interpretation which counts. and i am increasingly nervous.

fingers crossed and good luck all

[tiraider] 11/7/2007 13:02

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 10TH
JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:
JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 255.29

Big jump in NAV in 1 day.

GP;
agree some turmoil ahead (already started). I would rather be invested in Japan than in Europe, UK or US at the moment. Only holding gilts / cash in those areas.

Last year has been disappointing. I've had a reasonable run from '01. Doubled my holding in JFJ yesterday.

Good luck
rgds