Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 09/8/2018 21:01

India will remain the world’s fastest-growing economy as the country begins reaping the rewards of the ongoing structural reforms, according to Ranil Salgdo, the IMF’s mission chief for India.

Solgado described India’s $2.6 trillion economy as an elephant that is starting to run. Growth of the world’s sixth-biggest economy is expected to soar to 7.3 percent in the current fiscal year, ending in March 2019, and 7.5 percent next year. The current pick-up reportedly follows a drop to 6.7 percent in the previous fiscal year.

According to the Washington-based institution, India makes up 15 percent of the entire global growth. At the same time, the IMF called on governors of Asia’s third-largest economy for action to curb inflation and increase the number of females in the workforce.

The fund expects India to see a “broadly positive outlook” to “strengthening investment and robust private consumption,” but expressed concerns over risks tied to higher fuel prices and the weakening national currency.

Among the reforms implemented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, the IMF highlighted the introduction of a nationwide goods and services tax in 2017, which replaced dozens of state and national taxes. However, the IMF urged further improvement in the country’s tax system and continued reforms.

The IMF called for tackling crippling debts at Indian public-sector lenders, as well as relaxing regulations on foreign direct investment that would have a positive impact on the economy.

“India would benefit from further liberalization of trade and foreign investment,” the reports said.

The institution expects inflation to grow to 5.2 percent this financial year, well above the target of four percent set by India’s central bank and a 17-year low of 3.6 during the last fiscal year. India’s current account deficit will reportedly widen to 2.6 percent.

[andyj] 23/7/2018 14:33

They are at the same price they were two years ago. That is not what we pay Fund managers for. My cat could have slept on a pile of money for two years and given me the same result.

[loganair] 03/6/2018 10:38

Mark Mobius tilts towards China, South Korea and is also bullish on Brazil and Russia where consumer Discretionary goods and services benefiting from domestic consumption growth in these countries.

"The opportunities are incredible for the right investment."

He remains optimistic in the emerging markets of Vietnam, China and India and believes we're going to see lot's of opportunities in these markets down the road especially India has got tremendous opportunities.

Mobius also small- and mid-size mainland Chinese companies public in Hong Kong. Fintech is a focus area, as is firms that assist traditional corporations to better deploy internet technologies. "That's where the growth opportunities are," he said.

"China is now a huge market, and it's growing because we are now getting more and more access," he said. “With the A-share market coming into the availability of foreign investors, the opportunities are incredible”.


He also says he expects a 30% correction in the US market as a result of massive out flows from ETF's. Currently global ETF stock assets stand at $4.7 trillion.

[pjw956] 18/5/2018 21:33

errr ... sadly back down south again, now 683p

[loganair] 23/4/2018 23:02

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi gave the keynote speech and laid out an ambitious path forward for India’s thriving economy. Modi said that India hoped to see its economy grow to $5 trillion by 2025. India boasted one of the largest delegations at the forum, and the message was heard loud and clear: they want the world to invest in India.

The message has apparently been received. So far in 2018, Indian markets have attracted the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows among emerging markets. According to data from the Bombay Stock Exchange, overseas funds have purchased equities worth $1.5 billion in Indian markets this year.

Although emerging markets have performed better than many of their developed counterparts, most have seen net outflows in 2018. However, the Indian stock market has declined in 2018 with high issuance in the primary market. The stock market has seen almost $3 billion in IPOs listed so far.

[loganair] 12/4/2018 12:27

Could the continued rise in the price of oil negatively effect Indian growth?

India say they would like to see $50 oil while Saudi Arabia and Russia want $80 oil and it looks like we're more likely to see $80 rather than $50.

[loganair] 24/3/2018 11:10

Great expectations by Marina Gerner:

So what is the outlook for the BRICS? Stammers says that, ultimately, China and India are looking to become leading global providers of goods and services, so they make things. In contrast, Russia and Brazil are expected to become the global giants in commodities, so they provide the basic raw materials needed to make those things.

Paul McNamara, an investment director and lead manager on emerging market bond, currency and hedge fund strategies at GAM, says: ‘China and India matter a lot; the other two are secondary.’ All the BRICS countries face different obstacles. ‘Russia is crippled by dysfunctional institutions and corruption, but Brazil is slightly better off,’ comments McNamara. Redwood says Russia has ‘suffered a setback from the lower oil price, which has hit its export earnings and tax revenues, and from Western actions, which have made some trade and transactions more difficult’.

Redwood observes that Brazil has been through a bad political and economic crisis, with recession, high inflation and difficult corruption problems forcing changes of government. He says: ‘There is now some hope of recovery, but there remain deep-seated economic and political problems to resolve fully.’ South Africa too has been suffering from political instability and failing economic policies. ‘Future sustained progress in both Brazil and South Africa will need stable reform-oriented governments that can shake off the problems of the past,’ he adds.

India has become the poster child for reform-led recovery in emerging markets, argues James Penny, senior investment manager at TAM Asset Management. ‘With the appointment of prime minster Modi, the country has been put on a path of steep and deep economic and government reform to bring its economy and vast middle-class population to the forefront in the modern market.’

‘India has scope to become one of the world’s largest economies, but it still has a lot further to go to increase incomes per head.’ Moreover, South Africa, Russia and to some extent Brazil rely on mining and the production of oil and commodities, whereas China and India are more dependent on imports of raw materials.

Dominant China:

However, Penny says the biggest and, on the global stage, the loudest of the BRICS nations remains China. The country continues to make headlines speculating about whether its economy could suffer a ‘hard landing’ in the face of its highly leveraged corporate sector and a fall in GDP to 6 per cent. But he is keen to put these figures in context: ‘Let’s be clear here,’ he says. ‘The US is struggling to find 4 per cent GDP growth, the UK is looking at 1.5 per cent, and the world is worrying about a Chinese slowdown to 6 per cent GDP growth?’

-China, not India, will dominate future Asian growth:

The growth rates of the BRICS economies, with the possible exception of India’s, over the next 10 years is likely to be about half that of the previous decade, according to Smith. India’s and China’s shares of global GDP growth will probably be smaller, but the countries will remain dominant.

‘China will remain the largest [BRICS] economy and should continue to command investors’ attention,’ he says. ‘But if India opens up and reforms, investors should begin to devote more of their attention to the subcontinent.’ That said, he points out that, given the relative size of the two economies today, it would still take more than 30 years for India’s GDP to exceed China’s, even if India achieves all its reform goals and China achieves few of its aims.

Ultimately, the strength of the BRICS as an investment proposition is their very diversity, argues Ballard. ‘They are so different that they provide an element of diversification beneficial for any long term investor.’

[pjw956] 19/3/2018 20:13

well 2 weeks later and hitting new lows

[pjw956] 02/3/2018 21:26

top up time is just about now

[loganair] 28/2/2018 22:28

According to research from Atradius, a global trade credit insurer, the most promising markets of 2018 are Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Panama, Senegal and Vietnam.

These countries are poised well to support growth in 2018, thanks to the presence of the following three factors:

Strong domestic growth - Domestic growth reduces the downside risk of global volatility, particularly GDP growth fueled by private consumption and fixed investment.

Supportive policy - Macroeconomic policy stemming from stable political and institutional conditions encourages growth.

Favorable demographics - Growing markets typically have a young and active workforce and an expanding middle class – this boosts consumption and increases demand for investments and imports.

[pjw956] 05/2/2018 20:47

bit rocky at the moment ...dow bouncing about all over the place..will be a time to buy but not yet.

[pjw956] 02/2/2018 20:39

nav falls 3p - shares fall 28p....nothing like a shake to shake the shares ..time to buy nearer 700

[loganair] 13/12/2017 09:25

India roars back as one of world's fastest growing economies:

Japanese brokerage Nomura projects the Indian economy is on the cusp of a cyclical recovery with 7.5 percent growth rate to be registered in 2018.

The country’s GDP bottomed-out in the second quarter of 2017 at 5.7 percent year-on-year, rising to 6.3 percent in the third quarter, according to the brokerage.

“We remain bullish on India's macroeconomic outlook,” Nomura said in its Asia Economic Outlook.

The report highlights that Indian authorities have continued undertaking necessary structural reforms along with prudent macro policies, which led to the gradual recovery of the world’s sixth-largest economy.

At the same time, the brokerage says the tangible benefits of those reforms are currently hard to pinpoint, but they will definitely have a positive impact and boost growth. Higher crude oil prices and state election results are the main risks, according to Nomura.

The strong growth would be backed by the positive effects of bank recapitalization, a positive demonetization program and a positive fiscal impulse with Goods and Services Tax-oriented (GST) supply disruptions to be normalized, the report says.

Nomura analysts expect small and medium enterprises to boost production, exporters to benefit from the stronger global export upcycle with import substitution to reverse and growth to jumpstart.

“We expect cash-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, construction, real estate, trade, transport, hotels, and communications to benefit most,” the brokerage added.

According to the less optimistic outlook released by the UN earlier this week, India’s economy will see a 7.4 percent growth in 2019 with the performance of private investment to remain a significant macroeconomic concern.

Amid quite a rapid recovery and robust growth India may quickly become the world’s fifth-largest economy next year, topping both Britain and France, according to the International Monetary Fund.