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[tiraider] 21/11/2007 11:25

Last Updated: Wednesday, 21 November 2007, 07:19 GMT

Japan's exports reach record high

Japan's economic recovery is closely tied into US demand for goods
Japan's exports hit a record high in October, figures have shown, boosted by sales to Europe and China which offset falling US shipments.

[watwungyi] 15/10/2007 11:30

There's an interesting article on Sunday Times money section. The author is said to be overweight in japanese market in her sipp.

[knowing] 10/10/2007 00:05

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 8TH
OCTOBER 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:



JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 242.00

[tiraider] 03/10/2007 11:16

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 1ST
OCTOBER 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:

JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 238.97

[haveagoodday] 28/9/2007 07:40

Last Updated: Friday, 28 September 2007, 06:17 GMT 07:17 UK

Japanese inflation keeps falling

Car part production bounced back in August after July's earthquake
There are signs the Japanese economy has not yet escaped from deflation, with consumer prices falling for the seventh straight month.
Inflation fell 0.1% in August compared with the same month last year, making a rate rise from the Bank of Japan less likely before the end of the year.

Industrial production was stronger than expected in August, despite the problems on global stock markets.

Industrial production rose 3.4% compared with July.

It was helped by a recovery in car production, which had been slowed by an earthquake in July.

Exports also grew, despite the market problems for some of Japan's biggest customers such as the USA, but analysts say it is too early to conclude that the slowdown there will not hit Japan.

more

[knowing] 27/9/2007 21:27

Futures up 100.Be good if it holds.

[haveagoodday] 27/9/2007 21:24

Hi Wattie, not too late!

rgds

[watwungyi] 27/9/2007 21:18

I should have added some at #2.

[tiraider] 27/9/2007 14:26

Looks like it may have at last broken out of that falling wedge. Whatever, it has formed a bullish inverse h & s.

[greenpastures] 27/9/2007 14:23

Thanks haveagoodday.

[haveagoodday] 26/9/2007 07:44

Last Updated: Wednesday, 26 September 2007, 06:05 GMT 07:05 UK

Japan sees jump in trade surplus

Japan's trade surplus hit a 24-year high in August, with surging exports to other Asian nations and Europe offsetting slower sales to the US.
The monthly surplus grew 288% from a year earlier to 743bn yen ($6.47bn; £3.2bn), led by rising car exports.

While exports to other Asian countries soared 16.4% and to Europe by 15.6%, those to the US rose by just 4.6%.

The weak US figure is being seen as a further sign that the American economy is slowing.

'Offsetting US dip'

The trade surplus recorded in August, as reported by the Ministry of Finance, was ahead of market expectations.

Analysts said the big increase in exports across Asia and to Europe, would ease fears that the apparent economic slowdown in the US could hit Japan's economy.

Japan's overall exports rose 14.5% in August with car exports up by 22%, while imports grew by 5.7%.

"Asian economies will likely continue to grow strongly and Japanese exports to this region will continue to rise," said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief economist for RBS Securities Japan in Tokyo.

"That should offset the expected slowdown in the US economy and US demand."

[greenpastures] 19/9/2007 16:06

Thanks for posting the above. I also read comments from other pundits and analysts that Japan will be the place to be invested in over the next few years. Perhaps I need to review my pessimistic stance.

[tiraider] 19/9/2007 09:20

Japan year to July average commercial land price rises for 1st time in 16 years


TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The average price of commercial land in Japan
rose 1.0 percent in the year to July 1, its first rise in 16 years and the
strongest evidence yet that the world's second-largest economy is gradually
escaping from years of deflation, the Land Ministry said Wednesday.
According to the results of a survey conducted by the ministry, the average
price of residential land in Japan slipped 0.7 percent during the period,
falling for the 16th year, although the fall was smaller than the 2.3 percent
decline a year earlier.
The ministry's annual survey examines the prices of 24,374 properties based
on appraisals by real estate valuers, every July 1.
In the metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, average prices of both
residential and commercial land increased for the second straight year. The
average price of residential land rose 4.0 percent and the average price of
commercial land increased 10.4 percent, the largest increase since 1990, when it
rose 16.6 percent.
Amid Japan's economic recovery, the rising trend of land prices in each
metropolitan area continued to be supported by brisk demand for condominium
units and offices as well as by a recovery in corporate profits. The uptrend in
prices also spread to the surrounding areas.
In metropolitan Tokyo, the average price of residential land increased 4.8
percent, rising for the second consecutive year. The average price of
commercial land increased 12.1 percent, also rising for the second straight year
and posting its biggest increase since 1988, when it rose 15.8 percent.
In Tokyo's 23 central wards, the average price of residential land was up
13.1 percent from the previous year and the average price of commercial land
was up 20 percent.
In metropolitan Osaka, the average price of residential land rose 2.9
percent after being flat the year before. It was the first rise in 17 years. The
average price of commercial land climbed 8.0 percent, rising for the second
straight year.
In metropolitan Nagoya, the average price of residential land price grew 2.4
percent, the first rise in 16 years, while the average price of commercial land
rose 7.2 percent, up for the second straight year.
But economists doubt there would be a repeat of the asset price bubble of
the 1990s that later burst, leaving Japanese banks with saddled with huge debts.
The annual survey showed that the downtrend in land prices in most of the
rural areas remained.
The average price of residential land in rural areas fell 2.3 percent, down
for the 15th straight year, while the average price of commercial land dropped
2.6 percent, down for the 16th year. But in both cases, the declines were
smaller than previously.
"The mini-bubble in the major cities appears to be nearing its end due as
massive redevelopment projects appear to have peaked," Societe Generale Asset
Management senior economist Akio Yoshino said.
"Because of lessons from past experience, Japanese financial institutions
continue to show a conservative stance in extending loans related to asset
investments, while investors have become more reasonable in weighing risks and
returns, shifting funds quickly to other investment assets such as stocks, when
the returns on asset-related products such as real estate investment trusts
fall," said Daiwa Institute of Research senior economist Junichi Makino.
"So, it is fair to think that land prices will continue to be reasonably
priced going forward," he said.
A much-awaited rebound in land prices appears to support the Bank of Japan's
case for increasing interest rates from their present low levels, but economists
are cautious about reading too much into the latest figures.
"When signs begin to emerge that the rise in land prices may be moderating
even in the major cities, the Bank of Japan could misjudge its policy call if it
pegs monetary policy solely on land prices," Yoshino said.
BoJ governor Toshihiko Fukui has said he is not worried about the
possibility of another asset bubble.
He said that while rising land prices in major cities such as Tokyo, Osaka
and Nagoya look "somewhat rapid, they have not deviated notably" from fair value
levels based on a discounted cash flow method.
"It is difficult for us to base our monetary policy just on land prices or
the foreign exchange market, but we will bear in mind these developments and
make appropriate policy judgements," Fukui said.

[tiraider] 12/9/2007 13:26

GP

I'm holding onto my position, the strengthening yen is mitigating the losses, the USD is falling and taking the £ with it. The N225 is my only exposure to equities so it's a bit of a hedged risk. The Japanese numbers are a bit erratic so not too reliable.

The Japanese economy is growing quickly whereas the US is falling.

I think it's a much safer bet than the US and UK for now.

[greenpastures] 12/9/2007 13:16

Thanks for posting that tiraider. I am coming round to the position that it is probably best to forget about Japan as far as investing is concerned. An ageing population is not going to help matters.

[tiraider] 11/9/2007 17:37

From Times Online
September 10, 2007

Tempus comment: Sinking sun

Japanese stocks took a beating as investors flinched at the announcement of a negative quarter of real economic growthLeo Lewis in Tokyo
Although yesterday's contraction represents an unexpected end to Japan's longest period of postwar growth, some economists were quick to dismiss its importance.

The numbers are notoriously volatile during the April-to-June quarter, and many analysts continue to forecast good things for Japan's big manufacturers.

But there were definite warning signs both in yesterday's figures and in the recent clutch of consumer and business sentiment reports.

The worry for Japan is now twofold. A US slowdown undoubtedly will hurt Japan's exporters, but nobody is sure how bad the sub-prime lending fiasco has been, so the extent of the impact on Japan is also opaque.

But more unsettling for economists is the prospect that the "virtuous circle" of rising wages and rising consumer spending - the transmission mechanism that powers 50 per cent of the Japanese economy - will not kick-start as soon as hoped.

Many growth forecasts for Japan depend on that mechanism roaring into life in the coming fiscal year, and any blow to that scenario could leave the outlook bleak.

[watwungyi] 09/9/2007 15:06

last week, i went for a walking tour arranged by british library which is making a sort of awareness campaign about enviroment. there i met a student from japan studying at soas. and out of curiosity, i asked if she would go back to jap for job or find one here. she said she's already got a job from japan and said employment prospect are getting better and better. baby-boomers are retiring and the surging of jap's economy means japs are entering a new phase.
secondly, japs are gradually changing their tight immigration policy and the declining population will eventually force them to accept more naturalization, not only talented brazillian footballers. so prospect seems ok for jap's future. recent data though are weak and crisis in western markets have dragged the share price. but prospects are good for long termers.

[greenpastures] 23/8/2007 13:48

looks like the market is regaining its confidence and so much for me thinking the carry trade was coming to its end. Doesn't appear to be happening just yet.

[greenpastures] 19/8/2007 12:15

I sold out the week before last. I am watching the situation at the moment. I do wonder what impact the financial turmoil will have on the real economy.

A cut in US consumption will have its impact I think on Asian economies even if they have become more sustaining over the last few years.

Plus the ending of the carry trade which is now probably in sight will be also hit Japanese exporters too.

Going long on the yen is probably a good bet but don't take my word for it. I am not a currency expert nor a financial adviser. It is only an opinion.

[hectorp] 15/8/2007 15:03

I sold the Fund a couple of weeks ago and now I am fortunatly out of it but look to return soon.
The chart ONCE it rallies has a great deal of upside to cover.
We also need Japan's new main export partner China to be strong in the coming months.
I suppose too the falling off in carry trade is good for yen. That should give an extra boost to the Fund's returns in due course.

[haveagoodday] 11/8/2007 13:24

Low-yield yen proves winner
By Peter Garnham

Published: August 10 2007 11:57 | Last updated: August 10 2007 22:34

The yen was the big winner in the currency markets this week as the continuing fallout from problems in the credit markets saw investors rush to take risk off the table.

[knowing] 06/8/2007 22:47

IMF ups its 2007 growth forecast for Japan to 2.6 pct from 2.3 pct earlier


WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - Japan's economy is expected to grow faster
than earlier thought both this year and next, the International Monetary Fund
said today.
The IMF now projects Japan's economy will grow at 2.6 pct annual rate this
year, faster than the 2.3 pct projected in April. Japanese GDP is expected to
hit 2.0 pct in 2008, a tick higher than the 1.9 pct rate predicted in April.
The higher growth projections stem from stronger-than-expected first quarter
for Japan this year, said Daniel Citrin, IMF deputy director and mission chief
for Japan.
The IMF report, released after consultations with Japanese officials in May,
said Japan's economic expansion has entered into its sixth year, and that
Japan's banking system continues to improve, corporate profits are up, and
inflation has been kept down.
"The outlook remains favorable, with growth increasingly driven by domestic
demand," the IMF said. "The risks are evenly balanced with downside risks mainly
from the external side, while a tightening labor market could feed into faster
consumption."
In the medium term, the IMF predicted economic growth in Japan to dip below
2.0 pct starting after 2009.
The report said the largest downside risks for Japan are an "unanticipated
slowdown" in the US, volatile energy prices, and "global financial
turbulence."
But it also saw potential upsides for Japan, including faster growth in
wages and consumption, and the possibility that the weak yen could drive exports
past expectations.
The fund said Japan's currency is undervalued, though it did characterize
the yen as "market-determined."
US automakers have alleged Japan has manipulated its currency to boost
Japanese exports but both Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve
Board Chairman Ben Bernanke have publicly said they have seen no evidence of
manipulation.
"The yen remains below its long-term equilibrium value in real effective
terms," the report said.
The IMF added that the yen is at its weakest point in two decades after
falling by more than 5 pct against the dollar last year.
Elsewhere, the IMF said Japan's public debt ratio is "uncomfortably high,"
and continues to rise. It said Japan needs to continue developing capital
markets, raising bank profitability, and opening and deregulating the market.
[e-mail]
pik/cbd/wash

[haveagoodday] 05/8/2007 22:02

05/08/2007
Time : 08:08
Source : TFN Asia
Nippon Yusen Kabushi Japanese listed companies' Q1 pretax profits jump by 19.5 percent - report
TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The combined pretax profits of Japan's listed
companies were 19.5 percent higher in the fiscal first quarter ended June than a
year before, the rise having been fueled by booming demand in emerging economies
and the weak yen, the Nikkei newspaper reported at the weekend.
The newspaper, in a report carried on its website, said The Nikkei Inc had
conducted a survey of 914 listed companies that had released their earnings for
the quarter. These account for about 60 percent of the publicly traded companies
that close their books in March, excluding financial institutions and those
listed on the markets for start-ups.
Of the 32 industries covered in the survey, 22 posted profit growth. Sectors
benefiting from the strong economies in emerging countries saw particularly
large gains.
Increased demand for shipping natural resources helped Nippon Yusen KK
almost double its pretax profit. Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd saw its profit soar by 80
percent.
Komatsu Ltd posted a 50 percent profit surge, owing to expansion of its
operations in emerging countries. Mitsui & Co's profit tripled on higher prices
for energy and natural resources, which were fueled by robust demand from
emerging economies.
The yen's depreciation continued to boost earnings in many industries. The
currency was traded at 123 yen to the US dollar at the end of June, a
significant weakening from 118 yen at the end of March.
The foreign exchange rate contributed to brisk results at car makers, with
Toyota Motor Corp's pretax profit growing by 30 percent. Auto makers' strong
earnings also benefited Nippon Steel Corp and other major steel makers.
Listed companies are forecast to post their highest-ever combined profits in
the fiscal year ending March 2008 for the fifth straight year. However, the
outlook for the U.S. economy and foreign exchange rates remain risk factors, the
Nikkei said.

[greenpastures] 01/8/2007 10:54

I am wondering whether this is the beginning of a world wide financial crash. So much of the world's economy seems to be based on westerners borrowing money to buy from China and other cheap manufacturers. I can't see how that continue indefinitely. And once it stops the whole pyramid could quickly crumble.

I hope I am wrong but that is what keeps me awake at night.

[hectorp] 01/8/2007 10:12

YEN rises , carry trade hurt... (this should be good for our Fund though tis down over 1%, but Dow is down 2%)
We will get a cheaper price yet...