Journeo Share Discussion Threads

[vfast] 17/9/2024 09:46

Weatherman,thanks for the info.

[weatherman] 17/9/2024 08:15

Expansion into Europe: "In September 2024, MultiQ's company name was changed to Journeo AS Denmark to support our ambitions to offer all of the Group's products, software, know-how and services to the Continental European and Nordic public transport markets."

[weatherman] 17/9/2024 07:59

Cavendish has a note reported this morning. 9 page report, but summary: "Journeo has released a buoyant set of interim results in-line with the recently upgraded forecasts and continue to show strong growth. H1/24A revenue increased by 17% YoY to £25.6m whilst Adj PBT increased substantially by 66% YoY to £2.8m, with increased profitability across all divisions. Through the Group’s targeted R&D it remains well-positioned to take advantage of the rollout of EV buses across the country, demand for energy-efficient displays and further investment into the rail-system. "

[herbert0] 17/9/2024 06:49

Excellent results and better than I expected.

[adamb1978] 17/9/2024 06:34

Yes, nice set of figures. Highlights for me are the gross margin increase and outlook statement

[vfast] 17/9/2024 06:28

Interim results

Excellent results which was expected plus very positive outlook moving forward.

From the Outlook

"We actively evaluate acquisition opportunities that can bring further value to the Group, where there is access to a new customer base and complementary capabilities that can benefit customers. The Company is continuing discussions with a number of potential acquisition targets.

The Group retains a strong cash position at £12.9m (H1 2023: £11.3m) to enable the Board to capitalise on opportunities, as and when they arise.

Through organic growth and acquisition, Journeo is more resilient, capable and has increasing access to customers and opportunities. We enter H2 2024 with confidence, holding a strong sales pipeline and a growing customer base for our solutions. We are confident that the Group will continue to deliver value for all stakeholders as we build Journeo into a market leader in intelligent transport systems."

Investor Meets Company tomorrow 12pm.

[rmillaree] 11/9/2024 11:06

I think the combination of 54% growth in adjusted PBT, 17% top line growth and cash of £12.8m will create a similar reaction to that seen over at Anpario this morning (+15%).

i take the opposite viewpoint - if you are looking at 2024 over 2023 i think the market will look at 2025 over 2024 and ignore 2024 over 2023 - i think in that regard growth is expected to be next to nil with regard to bottom line net profit. Note hopefully for holders the 2025 forecasts are conservative and leave room to be beaten so i am not trying to be negative here just facing reality that prior growth counts for nowt if there is no future growth - i am well aware we are still in 2024 thats no the case for much longer though.

[philly cheesesteak] 11/9/2024 10:04

I think the combination of 54% growth in adjusted PBT, 17% top line growth and cash of £12.8m will create a similar reaction to that seen over at Anpario this morning (+15%). Of course it depends how shares trade into the 17th, last year they rose from 183p to 230p in the 5 days before the interims. A market cap of £47m certainly isn't demanding for a company enjoying consistent growth & with a very strong balance sheet.

[vfast] 11/9/2024 07:57

interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2024 on 17 September 2024 and the Company also announces that Russ Singleton (CEO) and Nick Lowe (CFO) will provide a live presentation relating to the Interim Results via Investor Meet Company on 18 Sept 2024, 12:00 BST.

Expecting to hear more good news!

[dodger777] 10/9/2024 07:16

What’s going on here today, any news leaked that we won’t like ?

[studentinvestor13] 23/8/2024 11:15

I think this could reach 500p within 12 months IMO whether I am in the stock or not beyond this point. I have held for a while and concur with the bullish sentiment.

PI interest can take this to 450-500p, II interest would be the leg in outer years to move higher.

[nchanning] 23/8/2024 10:00

You haven't needed an MBA to say Journeo looks way too cheap based on the numbers for the last few years . But UK institutions just haven't been looking to add small illiquid positions as they face redemptions and a liquidity squeeze as their own portfolios have been shrinking . Hence the shareholder register still largely made up of PI's . This will change imo once Journeo hits the 100m market cap threshold and especially in a bull market as fund flows return and the liquidity ratings in small cap portfolios naturally improve . The rating going from 12 to 20 will do most of the work to get from 100m to 200m market cap

[pireric] 22/8/2024 13:07

I actually don't disagree, Adam. So then it's surplus firepower to drive earnings accretion.

And whether you have £5m of net debt or £5m of net cash, the market does not ascribe a wildly different valuation. But it does mean you basically have material scope for EPS upgrades in the back pocket. So still think it's worth knowing what that multiple is as that firepower has EPS purchasing power (that's the lens I mostly focus on ex cash P/Es through). Contingent on the company having a good M&A track record, which the management here have, so far

Although of course in purely literature and investing integrity terms it should matter, and I'd always argue with investors that they should absolutely take it into account when deciding on the P/E.

Eric

[cockerhoop] 22/8/2024 09:06

This seems a decent hint on acquisitions:

'In addition to strong organic growth, Journeo continues to actively progress its stated strategy for strategic, complementary acquisitions, with an expectation to utilise the Group's excess cash reserves in this regard.'

My understanding was the Infotec deal was agreed in 2019 and not consummated until early 2023 so RS is clearly a patient man.

[adamb1978] 22/8/2024 08:18

Personally I think 'ex-cash' multiples are mis-leading as I've never seen any evidence, either empirical or anecdottal, that the market rates company's on an ex-cash PE rather than an actual PE.

What the cash does do though, is provide a little bit of a buffer in terms of how low a share price can go, however that's not quite the same.

I'd much prefer to see company's invest most cash balances, or if they cant think of any way of doing so which would generate decent returns (quite a concern if it were true for any co!) then return it.

So for JNEO, I'd love to see that cash go on a decent sized acquisition - would push the share price up materially IMO as I dont believe the cash does much for them

[pireric] 22/8/2024 07:40

The targets were £70m+ of revenue and double-digit operating profit margin (I'd interpret maybe 11-12% medium-term and closer to 15% longer-term as recurring revenue streams, and fuller systems [generally higher GM %s] in the mix continue to build).

Reaching that will be organic + deploying cash for acquisitions like Multi-Q, Infotec etc. Their early track record on those deals looks very strong. If I was an acquisition target I'd probably think about cashing out before any changes to capital gains tax rules, hence maybe a greater likelihood of a domestic deal over the next month and a half (if there are any in the pipeline).

Compared to the £52m market cap, Cavendish are forecasting £12.8m net cash for FY24 (25% of the market cap), increasing to £15.9m for FY25 (31% of the market cap).

The EPS forecast for Cavendish for FY24 is 23.5p, putting this on 13.4x P/E, which drops down to 10.0x ex the large net cash position. Quite hard to argue that this is even close to expensive. Why couldn't this trade on as 12.5x ex-cash P/E (would be 294p + 79p of net cash = 376p), which is close to ST's price target. If acquisitions are executed as intended, I'd expect to see a very close trade-off, where FY25 forecasts are bolstered materially, with EPS closer to 30p+ than 24p.

Management here are doing a good job, and like the setup as we will probably get 1+ acquisition over the balance of the year which will boost the 2025 forecasts and probably attract some incremental investors. The pace at which the management are building the company is quite impressive and in an optimistic scenario, you can see a world where they become a pretty meaningful player across many more countries in Europe long-term. The contract wins they keep receiving are ample proof of the quality of their solutions.

Eric

[dodger777] 22/8/2024 07:26

Is that one of the reasons for the steady rise here, possibly a lot more work for journeo if atos go bust 🤔

[caterham88] 22/8/2024 07:18

The fact that Atos is about to go bust doesn't seem to have been acknowledged in the share price

[dan_the_epic] 22/8/2024 07:12

does anyone remember what the management targets are for the mid term on revenue and margin?

also what is the net cash forecast for 2025 and 2026 please

[3bene] 19/8/2024 07:50

About to break out. Next stop 350p.

[pireric] 15/8/2024 20:14

Here was the bottom lines from the ST IC article

"Management’s record is impressive, albeit not reflected in the rating of the shares, which trade on a 2025 forward PE ratio of 11.3, a 32 per cent discount to peers...

... So, having advised buying the shares at 173p, and last reiterated that advice at 230p, I am now upgrading my fair value from 330p to 375p based on a target cash-adjusted PE ratio of 12.5. Please note that my fair valuation is below Cavendish’s raised target price of 470p (from 385p). Buy."

Eric

I do think that as this lands on more investor radars and given the low valuation that it has every chance of heading towards 325p over the next month

[dicktrade] 13/8/2024 07:46

Tipped by Simon Thompson in Investors Chronicle this morning ;-))

[vfast] 13/8/2024 07:39

8:35am MM's bidding 270p for up to 60,000 shares. bidding 273.1p for up to 35,000 shares.

Buyer(s) around after stock!

[pireric] 09/8/2024 07:46

And an EV of £31m, importantly, because of the £12.8m net cash balance, which is 29% of the market cap.
And which Cavendish forecast to increase to £15.9m at the end of 2025

Eric