Johnson Service Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 01/9/2010 16:39

I managed to get some more at 18.7 in the end and also I purchased a stake for my SIPP this afternoon. I see no reason this cant double over 12-18 months from here and could well be topping 50p in three years time, the risk reward makes it well worth going in aggressively imo.

Meantime if anyone spots any updated brokers notes please let me know.

[cwa1] 01/9/2010 16:26

Nice to see the top of the tree motivated :-)

[envirovision] 01/9/2010 14:56

Just checking in this afternoon, i put an order in at 18.2 this morning which was rejected, now i see why as the CEO snaps up 2.4 Million shares at 18.6p, he now holds sround 2.5% of the company, now thats some comitment.

[envirovision] 01/9/2010 09:50

I picked up on it RSI so thats a bit unfair, see my post first thing this AM, the exceptionals of course way laid by the Jarvis cost+integration, offset by the medium term upside outlook today. I'm aware of the borrowing had hoped more was paid off but i guess that will be next year as the exceptionals wont be there plus SGP will be cash positive. In any case, INVESCO expected debt to be c£65m and its come in even better than their revised, they are were also expecting year end net debt to be around £64m. I assume this explains the increased confidence for the BOD to raise the dividend as that was certainly unexpected.

I think the only real thorn in our side is the pension deficit and its going to cost us in the long run, however its hardly BT or British Airways stuff and the mrket is certainly not punishing them with a forward pe of under 5 and their deficits are larger than their market caps FFS!

For a company back in growth mode, a forward PE of 5 is sheer madness.

[cwa1] 01/9/2010 09:39

I would certainly agree that not ALL is rosey in the garden. I'd like to see the debt coming down faster too BUT, importantly, it looks as if they are heading in the right direction for a change and the directorspeak is fairly upbeat which is encouraging.

I did wonder if it was a rollover but thought it unlikely as the sizes were "different". I've not seen a rollover where shares are used to pay the commision before, has anyone else experience of this?

[master rsi] 01/9/2010 09:26

I HAVE NOTICED AS USUAL SHAREHOLDERS DO NOT WANT TO SEE THE NEGATIVE PARTS

The results look pretty good, but there was again a large exceptionals, the pension deficit is growing to £19.7m ( 14.7M ) pluss the borrowing is above the recomended level.

Market has to digest the figures, and also they look at the negative side first.

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the 3 large trades 1,9M trades look like a type of roll over ( 1M + 933K = 1.933M ) maybe the 33K is to pay the commision .

[cwa1] 01/9/2010 08:54

Some chunky(several million) looking trades being printed. Possibly the weak holder geting cleared out? That would be useful to help things going forward.

[envirovision] 01/9/2010 08:32

and still our resident nutter there, selling 25,000 at 17p

[cwa1] 01/9/2010 08:10

Decent sized(100,000) clip gone through at 18.5p

[envirovision] 01/9/2010 07:56

Theres an investors presentation at 9.30PM for the big wigs, after which I wonder if the smart money will be impressed enough to pile in?

[mesquida] 01/9/2010 07:33

And note the increased dividend, which the market certainly was not expecting. In my opinion the share price is being held back by just one large seller whose reasons for selling may have nothing to do with the outlook for JSG. Once this seller has cleared his stock out then I see no reason why we should not see this price back up at 24p/25p.

[envirovision] 01/9/2010 07:31

Improved margin. PBT 6.2M so should easily do 13.3 FY (EPS 3.7 may even beat) Rentals ahead of expectations, net debt falls 3.1 to 64.6m not as much as i hoped). Pension side is a total mess, Divi up 8% though!

Talbot forecasting growth in the drycleaning division now is very positive thing to be saying. No news on income growth from SGP yet though.

All in all I cant really see any reason at all to justify the current shareprice of 16-17p on a PE ration of 5 and under. This is a business thats now safe and so very very clearly going forwards and not backwards. There are 2 divisions growing and one on an even keal, im sure its only time before theres 3.

[geraldus] 01/9/2010 07:27

By the look of those results this is back on track.

[empirestate] 29/8/2010 00:18

am gonna pick a few up on tuesday for wednesdays results, looking decent value at this sp

[envirovision] 03/8/2010 09:00

Thanks for the broker note simon, if JSG's results confirm 2010 is bang on target then as i think i mentioned we should really be on 35p for fair value. Quite what is holding these down at the moment is beyond me.

[simon gordon] 02/8/2010 20:58

Investec forecasts - 30/6/10:

12/10
T/O - 229.5m
PBT - 13.3m
EPS - 3.7p
DPS - 0.8p
Net Debt - c.64m

12/11
T/O - 239m
PBT - 14.8m
EPS - 4.1p
DPS - 0.9p

[envirovision] 02/8/2010 17:09

Twas Legal & General Assurance Society Limited, incresing their stake, agree with you mesquida 100%

[mesquida] 02/8/2010 09:13

These look cheap to me - surely the acquisition of the management contracts from JARVIS improves the quality of earnings. Obviously the dry-cleaning shops continue to be a source of concern but it does seem as though the management is prepared to grasp the nettle and pull out of underperforming units. Can only think that share price is currently being held back by one large seller who wants out for whatever reason (and that reason is probably unconnected to the prospects for JSG). Therein lies the opportunity because right now it is very easy to buy in large lots. Suspect that will no longer be the case once the interims are released in 4 weeks time.

[envirovision] 29/7/2010 20:59

Looks like around 2 Million at 16.8 bought up by inst today. Wonder if that means the overhang has gone? If so and results are ok and contain bullish forward looking statement then it could be fun.

[envirovision] 29/7/2010 11:29

Forecasts from digital look show 228.3 million revenue for these results, I think the market is expecting far worse but I don't think it will be to bad, certainly the price fall does seem overdone. If they can do 225 million the in 2011 then 236 million as forecast should be easy, which case would leave them on a price earnings ratio of 4 and fair value would be minimum 35p per share. Certainly the current price seems to indicate 200 with little improvement for 2011.

So today I decided to take a gamble and buy at 16.75 pence, sadly I can't put them in my ISA.

Thinking about what to expect, OK well they said on 30th June "we continue to expect to achieve a result which is in line with the Board's expectations for 2010."

In addition they picked up the following contracts which could add a bit for 2011:

"We are pleased to announce the completion of the acquisition of 3 PFI contracts, together with 2 related Special Purpose Companies (SPCs) from Jarvis in administration."

I reckon there could even be a modest if not slightly upbeat tone about the forward looking situation, which would support digital looks 2011 forecasts.

[envirovision] 27/7/2010 16:12

On 1st results, does anyone have the forecast concensus?

[geraldus] 09/7/2010 20:07

Alexandra have called in the administrators,could be some contracts on offer.

[mesquida] 30/6/2010 09:38

Very thorough and respectable update this morning - INVESTEC are reiterating their BUY rating and 25p price target with modest upgrade to next year´s profit forecast. Purchase of various PFI contracts improves quality of earnings and thus adds to the attractions of the Company for me, but general market weakness means that we might not get the run that we deserve..