Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[jaka] 13/10/2021 14:02

Ouch, someone sold over a 110,000 shares @ .46p just before the update.

[hoper2] 13/10/2021 13:53

It's looking like far higher gas prices in Q4, $3 million for Hungry, the possible sale of Russian assets ( made easier by the 25% price increase) and hopefully increased production from new drills. Looking good at the moment, but the future looks even better.

[jaka] 13/10/2021 13:37

Looks like your calculated ballpark estimate was very near the mark! Stonking results for such a small company.

[researchcentre123] 13/10/2021 13:32

Well that looks good. Think I said 56m tops and they've got 51m cash and 4m in gas. Anyway looks very encouraging.

[genierub] 13/10/2021 13:31

Once more people digest the RNS and numbers, this is only going 1 way. Ill see y'all at 100p+. Easy hold over this winter.

[itsriskythat] 13/10/2021 13:26

European gas prices on the rise again by 7%

[itsriskythat] 13/10/2021 13:23

R110 drilling nears target depth

Alexander Paraschiy of Concorde Capital says:

"The company’s decision to invest into drilling in the Rudenkivske field looks brave but risky, taking into account that earlier attempts by the company to develop this field were not successful. However, if the drilling is successful, it would significantly add to the company’s value."

[jaka] 13/10/2021 13:18

5 million per month and winter hasn't even started!

[itsriskythat] 13/10/2021 13:15

Increase in Ukrainian gas production from 521Mcmd to 586Mcmd from Q2 to Q3.

Ukrainian gas price realised $431/Mcm compared to Energy exchange price UAH 14,500/Mcm. Estimated Q3 revenue $23.0m contribution from Ukrainian gas

Q4 gas price in the range UAH 26-39,000/Mcm. Estimated Q4 revenue $40.7m - $60.9m contribution from Ukrainian gas.

The best results will be this quarter.

Q1 $10.1m, Q2 $11.9m, Q3 $23.0m and Q4 $40.7 - $60.9m revenue

[saint in exile] 13/10/2021 13:04

51.5million in cash now and rising

[researchcentre123] 13/10/2021 10:52

It's possible definitely. Depends how much they've caught of the upside. Could be more than 3 times. If they can offset the debt the govt owe them I think that's another $10m or so from memory. And like you say, the Russian stuff could be big. What I do like is that they're sensible on costs, reduced debt, are getting rid of lesser assets and hopefully now building up some good Ukrainian ones. They haven't diluted stock nor are expenses excessive. Given the choice of this or some oil gas giant at potentially 10 times the PE ratio, I know which seems cheaper. I guess pple worry abt Ukraine and their big shareholders but I really think at these levels it's priced in some times over.

[jaka] 13/10/2021 10:26

I don't think your far off the mark, 56 million is optimistic, true, but achievable especially if they've manage to sell the Hungarian assets it could just take them over the line. Capital Expenditure shouldn't be too excessive usually on drilling rigs, I'm hoping for my jam today and not tomorrow! Talking of which, I wonder how they're going on with sale of their Russian assets. The company moved into Russia in 2007 with the $50 million purchase of Yuzhgazenergie, ouch, with a lot of CAPEX spent over the years. What must it be worth now with all those workovers, upgraded plant and infrastructure.

[researchcentre123] 13/10/2021 10:08

A lot of variables in this one. They are still owed a good few million by the Ukrainian state - maybe they could offset it against tax? My guess is sales were on the spot market at higher prices as they are a small producer and can't guarantee consistency of output I would think. If they decide to pay dividends again, that would help the share price. Or they may just have plans for expansion, in which case cash would be not as high as you hope but future prospects up. They seem to be taking their time with this announcement.

[saint in exile] 13/10/2021 10:03

That's crazy given our mcap

[hoper2] 13/10/2021 09:52

I'll be a little disappointed if the cash levels are below $50 million and well pleased if it's $55 million plus. If the price of gas holds anywhere near the current levels over the next 3 months (and we get a reasonable price for the Russian assets) we could be well over the $100 million mark by the end of the year.

[researchcentre123] 13/10/2021 08:34

If they are making $20m per quarter, then they've a pe ratio of 1.4. If they're only making $10m, then it's still 2.8 when the sector average last time I checked was 15.

[researchcentre123] 13/10/2021 08:21

Operating cash flow 6 months $16.8m + 5m (overhead for 6 mths) + 7.2m (sales expenses for 6 months) so $29mm revenue. Here we are dealing with 3 months only so half = $16m (increased a bit as gas prices were rising). Increase to 48m for 3 x increase in gas prices - $2.5m overhead - say $5m expenses (not sure what these are or how they are calculated). So $40m extra but there's tax. So topside 36m (previous cash balance) + 20m (think half goes in tax?) So at tops 56m cash balance, with the biggest assumption being they get 3 times the revenue for the quarter. This is very back of the envelope and optimistic. I would think this is tops with likely results lower if they book has sales in advance rather than the spot market.

[jaka] 12/10/2021 16:17

Any realistic estimates here with this quarters report imminent?
-- Total cash balance at 30 June 2021: $36.2m (31 Dec 2020: $24.3m)

Highlights to 30 June 2021
-- Average daily production: 9,255 boepd (H1 2020: 10,445 boepd)
-- Revenue: $39.5m (H1 2020: $35.1m)
-- Cost of sales: $7.2m (H1 2020: $9.6m)
-- Administrative expenses: $5.0m (H1 2020: $4.4m)
-- Exceptional item - net reversal of provision/(provision for disputed production based taxes): $1.8m
credit (H1 2020: $1.1m charge)

-- Net profit for the period: $9.9m (H1 2020: $1.5m)

-- Earnings per share: 5.79 cents (H1 2020: 0.89 cents)

-- Operating cash flow before interest and tax: $16.8m (H1 2020: $12.5m)

-- Capital expenditure: $3.7m (H1 2020: $7.5m)

-- Total cash balance at 30 June 2021: $36.2m (31 Dec 2020: $24.3m)

[saint in exile] 12/10/2021 14:45

Doesn't look like it's today

[researchcentre123] 12/10/2021 11:33

Ever watched a movie where as it goes on they're either filling or emptying your bank account?.....JKX the movie......

[saint in exile] 12/10/2021 11:29

Riveting haha

[researchcentre123] 12/10/2021 11:26

Well you can't beat this share for entertainment.....

[jaka] 12/10/2021 11:23

Just checking threw the quarterly updates and encouragingly they've for the most been released at 07:00 unlike the rest of the RNSs, not including extensions, range from 10:10 to 15:21. So it could be tomorrow, but saying that it .....we'll see.

[researchcentre123] 12/10/2021 09:52

So reports on 8th October last year, 9th October the year before and 5th October the year before that, so it really ought to be today we get that update. I guess as always we see!

[jaka] 11/10/2021 15:19

Zac Mir's latest analysis of JKX comments, bull flag in the mid 40's maybe 75p resistance at the end of the year. Last seen, amazingly, in 2014!https://youtu.be/YecxtnYedYo