Jersey Oil And Gas Share Discussion Threads

[cf456] 04/5/2018 13:43

I think there has been a bit of an overhang after the recent rise.

The two trades definitely look like purchases to me. Very close to the full ask and causing the bid to rise after executed.

The overhang would have been the source of the supply.

A delayed report of a large sale as you suggest is indeed another possibility.

[trulyscrumptious] 04/5/2018 13:39

Why would the mm's put a large sale through at 2.15 when most are 2.11, 2.12 and 2.14. I think they could well be buys.

[mesquida] 04/5/2018 13:16

I would be amazed if a marketmaker has sold so much stock to a buyer ( buyers ) without having a source of stock, hence my theory that one of the trades might be a sale. Only other feasible alternative is that we will see a delayed report of a sale coming through later on today.

[cf456] 04/5/2018 13:07

I think they're both buys.

I've been doing dummy sells to test price and the bid has never come anywhere near 215, the price at which both trades were executed. Also both are very close to the quoted offer at the time.

Also the bid has moved up since both trades.

Saying all that, there still seems to be a bit of an overhang holding the price back for the time being. Hopefully the consolidation is over soon and price starts making the next leg up.

[mesquida] 04/5/2018 12:54

Sorry to dampen your spirits, but don't you think that it is more likely that one of those trades is a sale?

[cf456] 04/5/2018 11:04

And another delayed buy.

37k @ 215

A £79.55k purchase.

Someone is really loading up.

[cf456] 04/5/2018 10:45

A chunky delayed buy there.

38k shares @ 215

An £81.7k purchase.

A few more of those would certainly help start the next leg up.

[robo175] 03/5/2018 11:05

Usual early mark down to try and shake some shares out.

[rogerlin] 03/5/2018 08:33

Maersk Mover and Laser listed as hired by Anasuria to pre-lay West Phoenix, both still in Aberdeen.

[cashandcard] 02/5/2018 14:45

Thanks guys,


Looking forward to the appraisal campaign.



Cash

[hiddendepths] 02/5/2018 14:41

Been reading up on the Athena decommissioning. Production used a tanker which was quickly and easily enough removed. They considered four options for decommissioning the rest and the first of the four was clearly best. I imagine that it was they did. It doesn't look very expensive to me. The really expensive ones to remove are platforms on the large fields. It seems that Athena was designed with decommissioning in mind because it was intended to have a short life, although even that was cut short by the oil price collapse) and decommissioning would have been a significant cost for the economics of the project. (not many years of DCF to erode it!)


An overview of the technical scope for option 1 is as follows:
 Divers remove mattresses from the 3 pipelines and 2 umbilicals at the production
manifold and riser base approaches;
 Divers disconnect pipelines at the two ends and install recovery rigging (one end)
 Flex lay vessel comes along and picks up the recovery rigging and hauls the
pipelines up to the vessel and reels the pipe onto the reel(s).
 The operation is repeated for all 5 products, namely the ESP Power Cable, the EHC
umbilical, the 8” Water Injection Pipeline, the 3” Service Pipeline and the 8”
Production Pipeline.
 Recovery rigging is attached to the riser base and production manifold and these are
recovered to a barge
 Divers deploy to the drill centre to recover mattresses and cut spools into sections.
 Drill centre mattresses and spools are recovered to barge via the DSV
 All products are returned to shore for reuse/recycling

So, Cash, an interesting question and worth investigating for sure. But having done so, I think we can dismiss it. It may still exist on the website and, presumably, in the accounts because there may be some lingering small potential cost. Alternatively they just haven't removed it because they haven't got a round tooit!

[mirabeau] 02/5/2018 13:25

Stop worrying fella! It's all good

[cashandcard] 02/5/2018 12:51

Thanks,

I was just wondering if a large chunk of our share of a possible success at Cortina would (eventually) be handed over to Athena consortium.

So it looks like they have covered that elsewhere - then why do they keep it on the website one wonders?

Cash

[mirabeau] 02/5/2018 12:47

I don't see any outstanding liabilities - I thought they were written off by Athena

[hiddendepths] 02/5/2018 12:39

Good question C & C!

The RNS of 25th June 2015 spells out the details of this deal. FWIW the field shut down in January 2016, by which time some revenues would already have been used towards decommissioning.

Towards the end of the relevant paragraph is the following:

"With respect to the future decommissioning liabilities associated with the Athena field, Trapoil's share of such liabilities is to be satisfied from the cash already held in trust and put in place to cover such costs."

So I don't think that's a factor for JOG. Anyone think differently?

[cashandcard] 02/5/2018 10:03

Hiddendepths, Mirabeau et all,


I'm thinking of rebuilding a stake here, as I went through the whipsaw last year and came out well when the sidetrack discovery was announced. But just reading this concerning the Athena settlement deal from the JOG website (second paragraph in particular), what are your thoughts on it:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As a consequence of the falling oil price, in mid 2015 an agreement was reached with the Athena Consortium whereby all future liabilities (including decommissioning costs) owed to the Athena Consortium will be met by Trap’s partners in the Athena Consortium and repayment will only be sought by way of any realisations stemming from Trapoil’s existing licences, being P1610 Block 13/23a (Magnolia), P1666 Block 30/11c (Romeo), P1889 Blocks 12/26b & 27 (Niobe), P1989 Blocks 14/11, 12 & 16 (Homer) and P2170 Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d (Cortina).

In summary, 60 per cent. of any petroleum sales or net disposal proceeds from these licences will be passed over to the Athena Consortium as well as all future revenue generated from our interest in the Athena Oil Field and when 125 per cent. of the outstanding debt obligation has been met, no further amounts will be due to the Athena Consortium.

--------------------------------------------------------------------->>



Cash

[homebrewruss] 02/5/2018 09:32

Thanks hiddendepths and truly, that helps.
I already have a holding but was wondering whether to hold it all going into the drill.
Obviously things can go wrong but it does seem relatively low risk to me also.

[trulyscrumptious] 02/5/2018 09:20

homebrewruss. Statoil said Verbier was in their top three most exciting prospects for 2017. They were proved correct as it turned out to be the biggest North Sea discovery of last year with between 25 - 130 million barrels recoverable. JOG are priced at the lower end of this scale and this year's drill and possible sidetrack should prove that the actual amount is at the high end of the scale. This has to be a low risk drill as they already have the discovery, now they need to see how big it is.
The huge amount of seismic will almost certainly yield more leads. Don't forget the result at Verbier has gone some way to de-risking Cortina which may well be even bigger than Verbier.
The drawback is that all this takes time and the Verbier drilling will not go ahead until this summer, possibly the latter part of the summer, and many people simply do not have the patience to hold for very long. But the rig has been contracted and we are already in May.

[hiddendepths] 02/5/2018 08:22

I certainly do, homebrewruss. I think Statoil are highly competent and know what they're doing. I think they have a good handle on the geology. They wouldn't have commissioned all that new seismic AHEAD of the appraisal if they didn't have a lot of confidence that it was low risk. It would have been easy enough to delay the seismic until after all the extra data that the appraisal will supply. But they're happy to commit to the extra expense already.

[homebrewruss] 01/5/2018 19:05

Hiddendepths, do you see the appraisal drill as low risk technically?

[hiddendepths] 01/5/2018 17:30

I might have been interested in JKX - but now it's been spammed, I won't touch it!

In for the long term here. If rig delay causes a pullback, I'm in for more. This is my number 3 oil stock at present, behind HUR and SDX, but is my number one choice for adding. Not very liquid a lot of the time, which is a pain.

[marvelman] 01/5/2018 14:37

Ukraine/Russia...a bargepole comes to mind

[jkx_rerate_is_on] 01/5/2018 13:32

JKX

Almost 10,000 boepd
40m mkt cap
Low cost drilling to increase production
Cash flow positive
Ukranie now one of the best places in the world to drill based on new regulations
Shares rerating after a very poor few years, now at 52 week high
Very little free float avaliable.
Rerate to 50p area now in progress.
Up 20% already today.

[cyan] 01/5/2018 13:17

Malcy excited about JOG

From about 7 mins in

[trulyscrumptious] 01/5/2018 12:30

Mirabeau, I already have it filtered so have no idea what was written this time. There is always the odd loony about.