Jd Sports Fashion Share Discussion Threads

[brancho] 18/4/2016 15:29

Thanks Alpha

[alphabeta4] 18/4/2016 09:26

About JD Brancho. On the FT I think you can sign up to four free articles a month when I last checked (I did this before I had full subscription).

It mentions a fair bit around the numbers but there's also this analyst quote which I found interesting on the athleisure trend:

Analysts underlined the importance of the female market in boosting sales. “The athleisure trend was the predominant driver of sales in 2015,” said analysts at Euromonitor. “This was especially common among women, and was spurred by celebrity-related campaigns which were powerfully marketed by leading brands, especially in footwear. JD Sports, Nike and Size have opened all-women stores in accordance with this trend.”

[brancho] 18/4/2016 08:54

Sorry can't read - subscription. is this about JD or Sports Direct?

[alphabeta4] 18/4/2016 08:16

Missed this the other day from the FT:

[recut more] 14/4/2016 20:19

2nd Upgrade by Investec
4/14/2016 Investec Reiterated Rating Buy GBX 1,420

[martinc] 14/4/2016 19:46

This is my biggest holding by some way, so I'm re-reading. It's interesting that outdoors has about a quarter of the floor area of sports but only a tenth of the revenue. How much that gap can be closed I have no idea! The shares don't look cheap, but they have big ambitions from Malaysia to uk gyms, and the cash to invest,so the future looks good unless sportswear goes out of fashion.

[thomasthetank1] 14/4/2016 10:42

Read Panmure's note on JD Sports Fashion (JD/), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/clothes_%26_apparel/jd_sports_fashion_plc …
“JD’s FY16 PBT of £157m (vs our forecast £156m) has duly beat consensus estimates by 4% as we flagged in our April 12th note, highlighting that forecast risk remains firmly on the upside for the foreseeable future as we see no signs of a slowdown (viz. the outlook statement), albeit we remain very alert to the risks of such a scenario. Multiple FY16 positives to highlight which underpin further progression in FY17; (1) The continued eye-watering LFL sales growth which has driven multiple material upgrades to forecasts throughout 2015 and 2016; (2) The strong cashflow generation and gross margin evolution; (3) The pronounced strength in branded athletic footwear over the past 2-3 years has unequivocally spilled over into clothing, notably in H2FY16 and remains very healthy so far in FY17; (4) continued progression/strength in online; and (5) European growth …”

[alphabeta4] 14/4/2016 10:34

Yep - and if you factor that out their forward PE was in line with the sector even on the old forecasts! Not bad for a growth story...

[martinc] 14/4/2016 09:54

That's about £1 per share of net cash they have.. quite significant!

[alphabeta4] 14/4/2016 09:36

First upgrade out - Peel Hunt 1250 to 1350. Reiterates.

[alphabeta4] 14/4/2016 09:19

Thanks Martin. Like you I'm scratching my head to understand why they need that much cash when Retail Fascia capex was £52m in the last year.

On a separate note Morningstar normalised PBT consensus was £149m so another beat by c5%. The share price not reacted just yet presumably on some profit taking. They also had 2017 PBT of £160m so I'm expecting further upgrades here. As an aside I thought the 2017 number looked very undemanding - new store openings have been running at c12% of the estate - assuming these are as profitable as existing stores then organic growth would be left negative(!) to achieve this against the 'positive trading' mentioned in the statement. Outside this all I can think is a reference to the living wage introduction perhaps? But even here you would expect a decent chunk of their customer base would also get their spending power increased at the same time (I've e-mailed their investor relations on this to try to get an idea of their average customer breakdown and wage cost line and will post here if I get a response).

For what it's worth I've got a revised 2017 forecast of £182m made up of the £157m plus 12% plus 5% organic growth for a beat of previous forecasts by c14% for a new target price of £13.

[martinc] 14/4/2016 08:23

I quite like the look of the gyms; lots of potential there I think in the long run:
hxxp://www.jdgyms.co.uk/index.php
I just looked up GYMS, which with 75 gyms has a market cap of £300m

I suspect JD are waiting for suitable acquisitions with all the cash they are hanging on to.

[thomasthetank1] 12/4/2016 11:30

Read Panmure's note on JD Sports Fashion (JD), out this morning, by visiting www.research-tree.com …
“JD reports FY16 results on Thursday April 14th. We expect JD to deliver a sixth consecutive outperformance of consensus expectations over the past year alone. We upgrade our FY16, FY17 and FY18 PBT estimates (partly catching up with history of two “positive profits surprise” trading updates in quick succession), putting us 5% and 9% ahead of consensus for FY17 and FY18. Forecast risk remains firmly on the upside in our view, driven by a combination of (1) JD’s unique positioning in a robust retail sub-sector enjoying strong pricing power (ASPs +5%) and (2) the benefits of numerous JD sales productivity and operating efficiency initiatives which are now manifesting themselves after several years of investment in UK stores (design, visual merchandising and instore digital technology), European store rollout, brand supplier relationship, multi-channel, and infrastructure…;”

[alphabeta4] 23/3/2016 12:20

You were ahead of the game there boonboon - good spot.

Looks ok to me from the RNS - If PBIT was £1.5m and PBT £0.2m it looks like they were paying £1.3m of interest which of course JD won't need to pay. The £26.5m is pretty tiny compared to the JD market cap so it looks like a relatively cautious expansion.

It will be interesting to see how much stock comes with the deal - as long as it's saleable that would then help give a better idea on the true PE being paid.

[boonboon] 17/3/2016 22:02

About to buy Dutch chains Perry sport and Aktiesport out of administration it seems.

[alphabeta4] 29/2/2016 10:44

FT article requiring subscription but gives a good update on the problems at Sports Direct:

[alphabeta4] 19/2/2016 10:16

Encouraging...

After a disappointing December, UK retail sales bounced back stronger than expected in January.


Excluding petrol, retail sales grew by 2.3 per cent from the previous month, beating economists’ expectations of 0.7 per cent growth. Excluding fuel, retail sales grew 5 per cent compared to January 2015.

Sales including petrol managed to hold up despite the falling oil price. Retail sales grew 2.3 per cent from the previous month, and 5.2 per cent year-on-year, well above the 3.6 per cent growth forecast by economists.

Average weekly online spending was £863.5m in January, up 10.4 per cent from January 2015.

[kop202] 02/2/2016 15:24

Some velly perceptive comments...mmm share likely to do one of three things

[brancho] 19/1/2016 07:04

So that would put the share price in the range 1180 to 1240. I think I'm a seller at 1200

[martinc] 18/1/2016 17:43

Sharescope is now showing earnings forecasts of 59.2p this year, and 68p for next year.

[brancho] 15/1/2016 12:58

Technical analysis difficult to apply to this but fundamentals point to 1200 to 1250 assuming a fairly racy PE of 20-21. As there is always psychological resistance around 1250 I would expect it to flat line pretty much after reaching this with 1250 the barrier to get through. Needs to get through 1200 first though. See what they say on 13th April

[dan_trader2] 14/1/2016 11:11

Thanks guys

[shammytime] 14/1/2016 11:00

Good luck fellas, didn't manage the 1250 but I'm out all the same. Hope this carries on going for you all...

I'm off to IBSTOCK now

[martinc] 14/1/2016 10:53

"Is the price likely to go up again or remain around the 1100 mark"
--

Yes, it's likely to do one of those. Or maybe go down with the market malaise. Or perhaps yo-yo a bit until the results with more guidance on what might happen next year.

[dan_trader2] 14/1/2016 09:51

Is the price likely to go up again or remain around the 1100 mark?