Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[winnet] 12/5/2025 14:04:21

It’s not quarterly accounting that we are talking about.

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eh - you quoted the quarterly capex figures in your post. All I was saying is these are a one-off cost...

btw, you quoted the Q2 average, but here are annual average Brent prices post-COVID. The Saudis won't have it at 65 dollars for too long, in my opinion.

- 2022: $100 per barrel
- 2023: $82 per barrel
- 2024: $80 per barrel
- 2025: $70 per barrel (current estimate from Barclays)

Of course Stag sells at a premium to Brent.

[oilinvestoral] 12/5/2025 12:55:35

Overall, I personally don't think 2025 will be bad as long as the oil price improves and Montara & Akatara have decent uptime this year. We also have the cost pools from Akatara to make use of this year. So that will ramp up the cashflow.

To balance that: The marginal barrels from Stag & Montara will be a drag with oil in the 60s. So improvement back to higher levels much needed.

[controlledmadness] 12/5/2025 12:36:19

We have to remember that they paid over 80 million for the abandonment fund last year.
There was also about 10 million for the alternative to the FSPO and charges for fixing the FSPO. There were also costs for Akatara. These are more than the cost of SKUA 11 which if all goes well will also start contributing this year.
I know the price of oil has dropped but I do not think that they will lose money this year especially with the extra money from the sale of Thailand.
I have probably missed something and would be happy for an explanation about why 2025 will be bad even accepting that 2024 final report will seem bad?

[sea7] 12/5/2025 11:44:07

Baillie gifford hold their Jadestone stake within this fund and it represents 0.2% of the fund. The fund itself has 4.8% allocated to energy, which is CNOOC 3.3%,Jse 0.2% and reliance industries 1.3%.

The total fund size is over £2.7 billion and their jadestone stake is worth a few million quid.

whilst they have reduced to 6.91% last month, it is only down from 7.17% this time last year.

[oilinvestoral] 12/5/2025 11:26:34

I still don't think you quite get it Winnet! It's not quarterly accounting that we are talking about. It's about having enough cash/ liquidity to cover your legal obligations and discharge financial responsibilities! If you can't, it's like a financial heart attack! They have now addressed this very well IMHO by securing the WC facility and selling Sinphohorm. PS: Q2 average is WTI 62/ bbl and Brent $65.

[winnet] 12/5/2025 10:52:41

We're only below that oil price figure today, I expect the range to be in the 70's over the period... IMO.

The Q2 capex was always going to look poor because of the one off costs that fall in that period and the terrible temporary collapse of the oil price. In the longer view, its a different picture. My advice is not to obsess on the quarterly accounting data - there a bigger picture and our liquidity is okay. IMO.

[pughman] 12/5/2025 10:51:10

The immediate pressing question is how much liquidity is needed to shut down Stag. The field is planned to produce until 2035, and needs $100 a barrel not to lose money. The numbers are horrific, it's probably getting about $80 for its barrels today. I'd leave Australia in a heartbeat, market CWLH, Montara and Stag as 'The good, the bad and the ugly' and pray you find a buyer. The future is Akatara, Malaysia and Vietnam.

[oilinvestoral] 12/5/2025 10:12:04

"The point I'm making is we have the liquidity to pay a divi, although yes, the cash figures look like it will be next year before actually declaring a positive return,"xxxxxxxI'm glad we agree Winnet ! The company has been crystal clear that once the balance sheet is repaired , they will look into shareholder returns. I suspect that will be mid year 2026. Liquidity and profits are two different things. If you look at the Q2 outgoings (before the sale of Sinphuhorm and the new WC facility) and take into account the available cash , you'll have your answer. BTW , the 270 to 360 million that you quoted is based on a range $70-80 BRENT rice (we are below that now).

[winnet] 12/5/2025 09:55:53

Oil Investor - the stable production from the Akatara gas processing facility has improved our financial resilience... - The company expects unlevered free cash generation of $270-360 million between 2025 and 2027 [as stated in their disclosures]... Their net debt is around 100 million.

They should post a profit in 2026. Although I estimate the 2025 figure will be negative...

The point I'm making is we have the liquidity to pay a divi, although yes, the cash figures look like it will be next year before actually declaring a positive return, but thereafter we are away to the races - what would the cost of a divi be - 20 million? 15? Is this going to mean the death of the business? No. But it would help shareholders "bridge" what I see a return gap between now and then...

I'm getting down voted a lot for these remarks, but all I am saying is its possible, if undesirable to do.

[forrest1987] 12/5/2025 08:44:17

Oil soaring with the china announcement

Why is this down ?

[sea7] 12/5/2025 08:37:07

Major shareholder changes as of 30th april..

Hargreaves up to 4.21% from 4.18%
UBS up to 3.27% from 3.25%
Interactive down to 3.05% from 3.08%
Bailie gifford down to 6.91% from 7.07%

[the_gold_mine] 11/5/2025 19:10:59

U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva

[nigelpm] 10/5/2025 18:05:54

I can't see a dividend but it's certainly not out of the question at some point. Plenty of liquidity now.

[bubbabubbabubba] 09/5/2025 19:50:39

Forget dividends. Why not hedge more production at $65 and buy back 30% of the shares it would only cost £30 million and show how confident they are in the business

[oilinvestoral] 09/5/2025 16:33:57

Still waiting for your calcs winnet when you get a chance. Cheers

[oilinvestoral] 08/5/2025 09:48:49

Winnet have you read the RNS from the 24th April? Can you please share your calculations to show exactly how much liquidity they had before the sale of sinphuhorm and the securing the $30 million WC facility. Also take into account the 62 million that is needed to be paid for SKUA11. Once you have provided the above numbers please confirm how much should be set aside for G&A, debt servicing, taxes, general corporate spending and working capital. Thanks!


I'm personally not a believer in using debt to pay dividends. I hope we don't consider shareholder returns until the company is back to net cash!

[oilinvestoral] 08/5/2025 09:40:53

"Why would Saudi agree to an increase in output when its break even price to balance its budget is $90 bbl?"xxxxxxxxxxxxxFireplace The Saudis have been very clear publicly that they want to regain market share. They are willing to run a budget deficit in order to regain market share. Gone are the days of subsidising poorly run shale companies by cutting OPEC production.

[oilinvestoral] 08/5/2025 09:37:40

Full disclosure guys: I have been speaking with the company recently and I robustly challenged them on the sale of the Sinphuhorm. They explained the situation to me and the rational behind the sale. Knowing what I now know, I can understand why the new management team felt that it should be sold. I personally would've liked to see it as part of the PF but needs must.


While I'm under no illusion that the road ahead over the next 6-9 months isn't straight forward specially given the current macro conditions, our high breakeven at Stagg and Montara, OPEC continuing to flood the market and the low oil price. I believe the company is doing all they can to manage the current situation.


I must admit I'm slightly feeling better about the situation and believe we can get out of it in reasonable shape. I appreciate the fact that the new management team were quick to react to the tight spot by securing the $30 million working capital facility. Who knows even my large top ups at 28p in February might even be back in profit some day. LOLZ


The 62 million CAPEX literally could not have come at a worst moment. I'm guessing we should be hearing some news from SKUA11 by the end of this month if the well hasn't been completed by annual results.


As I have mentioned on Twitter, I have asked the new management team to host an investor meet company webinar and they said they will discuss and consider it. Here's hoping they oblige.

[fireplace22] 08/5/2025 09:22:30

Why would Saudi agree to an increase in output when it's break even price to balance it's budget is $90 bbl? They are already cutting back on capital projects. It's a political move probably orchestrated with Trump. Maybe to further weaken Putin?

[nigelpm] 08/5/2025 09:16:23

I think there's some confusion there.

They didn't "have to issue a liquidity update to clarify its liquidity position"

It's important to keep the market informed particularly post RBL updates given the materiality.

[winnet] 08/5/2025 08:59:56

Using what cash exactly? The company literally had to issue a liquidity update RNS to clarify its liquidity position a mere 10 days ago!

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And liquidity is okay... Enough to pay a small divi. Once china and the us sort the tarrif situation out oil will rise a little.

[the_gold_mine] 07/5/2025 13:42:49

China and USA going to start Tarriff talks in a couple of days, https://x.com/ChineseEmbinUS/status/1919909430939865300?s=19Common sense would suggest a deal should be forthcoming to the mutual benefit of both parties

[sea7] 06/5/2025 14:15:04

Local news on the same inauguration of akatara



indonesiabusinesspost.com/4113/investment-and-risk/government-inaugurates-us-130-million-akatara-gas-project-in-jambi