Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[forrest1987] 15/4/2025 19:04:32

So
It’s going down more then

T
I
M
B
E
R


What’s jadestones compound performance since ipo


You may as well have invested in the fav at the 3.50 at Kempton


What’s the point of jade stone energy

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2025 19:00:06

I'm not sure your understanding re the gas is accurate. With regards to who is responsible for decomm, that is Jadestone Energy. The FPSO is a negligible part of the story as that will sail into the sunset! Decommissioning subsea wells ain't cheap. The other significant part is the subsea infrastructure (pipelines & manifolds etc) that needs to be purged, isolated , discontented and dealt with. With regards to "when" this is expected: montara COP is currently penciled in for 2031. That will probably be extended assuming a successful SKUA11. However a low oil price or high OPEX have to he potential to speed up the COP date.

[forrest1987] 15/4/2025 18:53:38

Everyone selling now is selling at a heavy loss

What’s the compound rate of return

[fireplace22] 15/4/2025 18:44:40

When Montara is done, I understand it goes to shell (at nominal cost) to recover the gas, do we have an time guestimate when this is expected and who's responsibility it will be to decommission the oil side of things? I'm guessing the FPSO will no longer be required?

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2025 18:02:32

Very valid points Pughman! However what I would say is that they are working on reducing the OPEX across both assets. SKUA 11 isn't just about kicking the can down the road. It significantly reduces the OPEX per barrel as the OPEX figure is spread across an additional 3,500 bbls +! But even if we agree about the "kicking the can down the road" point , that prevents early crystallisation of the decomm liabilities. The further they are pushed into the future , the more the liability is discounted. Re the cost of the well ; I totally agree that it's expensive but that's the cost of doing business in Australia. These subsea operations tend to be expensive. What I would highlight though is : the project has an IRR of 65% , so that's not too shabby at all (assuming it delivers as prognosed).

[pughman] 15/4/2025 17:49:18

JSE will spend $62m on Skua, which just kicks the can down the road for 18 months. Look at the $60m Stag infill in late 22, to where production is today. Akatara, Malaysia, Sinphu are all low cost, and CWLH OPEX per barrel is in the mid 20's. All the data I've seen points to investing in Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. The $130 million opex for Montara and Stag in 2025, plus $62m CAPEX for Skua will produce a pitiful return this year. If that $192m was invested in low cost SE Asian countries with accomodating regulators, the future wouldn't be so uncertain. Until Montara and Stag are dealt with, the bad outweighs the good here.

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2025 16:34:41

Agreed TGM ! Akatara CAPEX has been a millstone around our necks and Montra clusterfork couldn't have come at a worse time. Right now we will be reaping the rewards of the Akatara cost pools which from memory are around 140m? So should recoup a lot of the money spent on Akatara sooner rather than later.The big pink elephant in the room is now OPEX specifically at Stagg & Montara. This issue is exacerbated in a low price oil environment. They need to get a handle on this ASAFP. SKUA11 is the first step to this along with the cost reduction initiative which is ongoing.

[the_gold_mine] 15/4/2025 16:19:46

OilinvestorA1: agree performance hasn't been good previously but completion of Akatara means a significant drop in future CAPEX spend plus a new low tax cash stream moving from Akatara sales gas (+ associated liquids also I believe)....

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2025 16:03:34

"That JSE with producing assets in OECD/Tier 1 legal jurisdictions is approaching GKP valuations to me speaks of how battered JSE's valuation is"---------Valuation is indeed low but rightfully so IMHO! They've made a dogs dinner out of it and I'm sure they would be first to admit it! In fact I would go as far as to say that profitable oil in Kurdistan should be valued higher than oil that breaks even at near 60/bbl. Like I said on my previous post: whether it's OECD or otherwise matters not when you are selling oil at a loss as JSE have been doing since 2023! For non oilies this is like buying a rundown roofless property in a good area of town and expecting top money for it! It doesn't quite work that way !

[ashkv] 15/4/2025 15:47:02

Full Year 2024 Results very soon!! Fingers crossed some positive developments.

It would be useful to learn if any progress on further customers / production uplift for Akatara!! And Vietnam progress would be a bonus!!

A webinar would also be helpful.

If I recall correctly than JSE has 11,000 boe/d hedged at around USD 70 for 2025? And a further 5,000-6,000 boe/d Akatara Gas at a generous fixed price! Plus a further 1,000 boe/d of Gas production. Therefore Brent downside impact is blunted for JSE!

Look forward to learning that average production has picked up from mid-guidance in Q1 2025 / which in any case was notable given some severe tropical storms impacting production for the offshore platforms in Q1 2025 per the recent JSE update.

My friendly sparring partner OilInvestorAl - I compared JSE valuation with GKP as the Kurdistan firm is in a hazardous geography and has been among the most undervalued firms relative to production / 2p reserves etc ever since the Turkish pipeline exports were curtailed.

That JSE with producing assets in OECD/Tier 1 legal jurisdictions is approaching GKP valuations to me speaks of how battered JSE's valuation is!! I appreciate the underlying economics have to be weighed - but Ceteris Paribus this has been true the past few years for Kurdistan oilers versus oilers in more secure regions!!

[the_gold_mine] 15/4/2025 15:36:31

Akatara should be creaming in cash just now minimally affected by the oil price downturn, I believe JSE pay almost no tax until they have recuperated their investment costs, so that should be a cash cow for the foreseeable future

[the_gold_mine] 15/4/2025 15:34:36

Various members of the board were buying shares a few weeks ago, including a chunky buy of £75,000+ from the executive chairman, given it was more than one person buying I assumed they have turned the corner and expect the share price to start it's long overdue recovery... The Board were buying at 24.75p and 23.9p,

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2025 14:33:44

I don't know what was written but if I was a betting man (and I am) my bet would be that he is indeed "wrong" again.I think the market is waiting for delivery of SKUA11 and demonstration that a few more years can be eeked out of Montara. If that well comes in on prognosis (or better), that should give us the much needed reduction in OPEX/ bbl at Montara. The bigger point is that the market is no longer giving JSE the benefit of the doubt and wants to see operational delivery, cashflow and more importantly a reduction in net debt. Until then , it's a waiting game!

[forrest1987] 15/4/2025 14:17:00

You won’t get anything back here

It’s been very poorly managed so far inc the current board imho

[forrest1987] 15/4/2025 14:15:12

They’d be on the hook for the entire thing if there was an issue

That may be the reason that the investment in jadestone may have gone too far for them so far

Imagine if this was another Montara issue they’d be on hook for entire thing

[farmscan] 15/4/2025 14:13:43

I do hope you are wrong! I've lost so much here and TXP. Cut my losses on Touchstone but hoping to get a bit more back here.

[nigelpm] 15/4/2025 13:39:55

I'd also be surprised if Tyrus weren't contemplating a low ball bid - they'd probably get away with 30p.

[forrest1987] 15/4/2025 10:58:29

Everyone selling is selling at an extreme loss

I can only imagine that there is some unforeseen issue that has leaked

[nigelpm] 15/4/2025 09:12:21

My average isn't that bad through a lot of trading etc.. - I definitely don't need advice from you!

[pughman] 15/4/2025 09:09:55

Being a long term JSE shareholder must qualify you for round the clock mental health support from the NHS. See you all in the Priory.

[nigelpm] 15/4/2025 09:08:42

I couldn't resist another pretty hefty purchase this morning under 20p - that is definitely me done for the foreseeable. Sit back and wait now.

[oilinvestoral] 15/4/2025 08:59:31

"JSE Enterprise Value / Flowing Barrel approach that of Gulf Keystone in Kurdistan!!!"----The above isn't the ramp that you think it is! GKP is producing more than double the amount of oil that JSE is producing, pays a large double digit dividend, has a buyback in place and has net cash / zero debt. Don't get me started on reserve index and asset longevity! It's not all about Geography.The above either means GKP is horribly undervalued or loss making JSE is fairly valued / overvalued. PS: JSE is my largest holding but calling a spade a spade !

[forrest1987] 15/4/2025 08:51:36

I’d be asking Stifel why there is a constant large seller if I was the bod