Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[resurrect123] 23/7/2023 11:16

Wouldn't the losses create a tax asset to be carried forward, have you factored in this years big loss offsetting some of that tax cost

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 23/7/2023 10:40

"at $80 Brent JSE is making money hand over fist!!!"Have you factored in taxation?

[jeff114] 23/7/2023 08:35

And once Akatara is fully online they will have a solid foundation for further acquisitions, which they are probably already negotiating

[ashkv] 23/7/2023 08:30

Agreed incredible value - for some reason E&P firms are on a down trend with valuation metrics even lower than at Covid peak.with Brent in the 20s.

And with JSE it is a certainty that with Akatara project coming online in early Q2 2024 the share price has to rerate as the start date approaches!!! Not possible to stay at this ridiculous low price!!!

Average in - stay the course!!!

[zebbo] 22/7/2023 22:47

As night follows day, sentiment will change. share price will be significantly higher in 6 months time

Never a better time to buy IMO

[resurrect123] 22/7/2023 12:51

Yet share price sits at three years lowMarket doesn't believe the story, believes is high riskWill the dump continue, hasn't stopped in 4-5 months Chart still in downtrend

[ashkv] 22/7/2023 12:41

Even with 50% of current 16,000 production hedged at $70 for the next 24 months - at $80 Brent JSE is making money hand over fist!!! There is no doubt about the same.

And the Akatara project completion now at 42% (which has been RNSed so has to be truthful - it is a crime to publish incorrect information is such circulars / also head to Jadestone website and check out the Akatara site construction progress video) is very much coming to fruition. Market would be insane not to wake up to the same at some point in the near future!!

Highlights
· 2023 Group production, underlying operating cost[1] and capital expenditure guidance reaffirmed.
· The Akatara gas development project in Indonesia is 42% complete and remains on plan, budget and schedule for first gas in H1 2024.
· East Belumut infill drilling campaign offshore Malaysia on schedule to commence in August 2023.

[ashkv] 22/7/2023 12:36

What should the share price be in such a scenario? 500p?

jeff11421 Jul '23 - 13:48 - 17641 of 17664
0 1 0
Well if they produce 55k boed by 2030 by adding 5k a year at $30/boe cash flow and 30% taxes I got $450 mio profit at a p/é of 5 gets you a x10

ashkv21 Jul '23 - 13:10 - 17640 of 17667
0 1 0

Based on normalized EV/2P valuations and EV/Flowing Barrels valuation - just based on current production (16,000 boe/d) JSE should be valued close to 100p range.

The 5 Analysts who follow JSE have on average a 12 Month Target Price at 74.5p for JSE [Analyst estimates to be taken with a pinch of salt :) ]

With the high analyst at around 85p (if I recall) and the low analyst Jefferies (54p).

However, even the lowest analyst target price of 54p is a return from current 33p of 62% and the average target price in excess of 100% from today's JSE share level.

If JSE based "solely" on current production were to get the same offer based on EV/2P and EV/Flowing Barrel that SQZ paid for a much less promising growth drivers, higher tax jurisdiction firm Tailwind - valuation for JSE should be north of 100p.

A dislocation that for some strange reason is persisting :(

I do concur with the earlier poster that their should have been consequences for senior management - and the CFO should have walked the plank!!! Couldn't have foreseen is just a paraphrase of not competent enough and slipped-up!!!

[ashkv] 22/7/2023 12:35

It is the case for most oilers that they are bottom fishing...

No love from buyers and most UK E&P are bouncing around 52 week lows/or plumbing new lows on miserly volume.

Case in point Serica just a few days prior set a new 52 week low and the much heralded "Capital Markets Day" on 19 July has only led to a tepid bounce / even with gas prices up strongly at the end of the week /and Brent around $80. Plus SQZ even announced an additional $50mn of net cash from the update prior to Capital Markets Day.

HBR is in the similar category - has bounced about 15% or so past week but given strong deleveraging and at least 10% of outstanding shares bought back over the past year. Recovery is tepid. And was close to 52week lows earlier in the month. So many such examples!!!

Also don't agree with the consistent troll on JSE that many other oilers with better balance sheets / prospects as compared to JSE. Buying has been abysmal across the board for UK E&Ps. Also JSE has the most compelling valuation which far discounts the horrid recent missteps (Though I am of the view there should be consequences for management and am appalled at the impunity and self-certified clean sheet / citing of some yes men board auditing firms!!)

JSE has very manageable amount of short term debt due to Montara debacle and huge upfront Capex for Akatara.

IMHO JSE's minimal debt relative to ongoing revenues/profits is akin to taking a small mortgage to build a project in high demand on prime property. The project is coming to fruition in 8-9 months and JSE will very much be 100p or thereabouts (should the project come online on time and on budget). Project delivery guidance is looking likely to be achieve as Akatara construction is subcontracted to a premium Japanese EPC contractor.

[resurrect123] 22/7/2023 08:39

Fardels will hold this to zero That's hilarious

[fardels bear] 22/7/2023 08:37

Yawn. You're filtered. I don't get to see your drivel.

[resurrect123] 22/7/2023 08:05

No you weren't fardels you hold jadestone that means you were very very wrongUnder 33.5 now, all time low of 28.5p looks in play

[fardels bear] 22/7/2023 07:34

Yep. I was right.

[resurrect123] 22/7/2023 06:47

No fardels you are notThis is getting so pathetic even I'm losing interest

[fardels bear] 21/7/2023 18:35

You gotta speculate to accumulate.

[nigelpm] 21/7/2023 17:57

It's alright quoting production numbers, but JSE will only recover when (maybe if) it can demonstrate that it can make money from them. At the moment, it isn't...

It is making money from its oil production.

The challenge is a load of cash is also being spent on Akatara project so until that comes online there will quite rightly be scepticism.

[resurrect123] 21/7/2023 17:57

Under key 33.5p area though

[yasx] 21/7/2023 17:22

Volumes over the past week or so are fairly thin, indicative of disillusioned minority holders, far less significant institutional sellers.

[stemis] 21/7/2023 16:56

Is there really a seller or is it just the drip, drip of holders losing heart and buyers (or potential buyers) waiting to see the first signs of spring?

[resurrect123] 21/7/2023 16:37

ends the week still in a downtrend

will this end, the seller is insatiable, always wanting lower and to sell more. Taste those losses

[yasx] 21/7/2023 16:10

Stemis,

Precisely.

[resurrect123] 21/7/2023 16:07

downtrend still not finished, where will it end, 20p

people have been calling this a no brainer all the way down. its continued to fall, and continued to lose investors money

[resurrect123] 21/7/2023 15:38

new three year low

sets up poorly for next week

under 30

[stemis] 21/7/2023 15:34

It's alright quoting production numbers, but JSE will only recover when (maybe if) it can demonstrate that it can make money from them. At the moment, it isn't...