Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jeff114] 12/11/2022 16:03

Agree with the targets . I think 1.5 by July and 2-2.30 by year end. Imho 85 $ average is to low. Any comparison on production and cash flow growth since IPO? Probably more than share price growth?

[mount teide] 12/11/2022 11:42

Since coming to the London AIM in September 2018, JSE has achieved a CAGR of 23% PLUS Dividends.

My revised production and net cash estimate and H1/2023 valuation target post resumption of operations at Montara this quarter is:

20,000 bopd - Total production across the assets by year end

$130-$150m - Net Cash at Year End

$288m - Est current E/V

£1.20 - £1.50 - H1/2023 Target Valuation


After a disappointing 2022, largely the result of Operational Issues, 2023 offers the prospect of highly material upside potential:

6.75m bbls - 2023 Annual Production at an Estimated 18,500 bopd

$425m - Est Annual Operating Cash Flow at an average of $85 Brent / $25/bbl OPEX

which, subject to a smooth execution, and without the addition of further acquisitions, offers realistic potential for a 175p to 200p year end 2023 share price, should Brent average $85, which is well below Goldman's recently raised $110 Brent forecast for 2023, and the uber bearish EIA's $95 Brent forecast.

AIMHO/DYOR

Final thoughts on the investment prospects for Jadestone (or any other stock an investor may hold) were made by Warren Buffett: "If you're not prepared to buy more stock at its current price, you shouldn’t be holding it anymore"

[sea7] 11/11/2022 12:39

thanks again MT

[mount teide] 11/11/2022 12:17

Sea - Nopsema do have the final say with respect to removing their own suspension of operations order on the FPSO but, once the Classification Society has re-instated Class, it would be inconceivable were Nopsema not to do so, and almost immediately.

[sea7] 11/11/2022 10:32

thanks MT - wasn't sure if NOPSEMA had the final say!

[mount teide] 11/11/2022 10:30

Sea7 - whoever heads up Nopsema, once the Classification Society reinstates Class on the FPSO, it is effectively telling Nopsema that the Montara Venture meets the structural and operational standard to recommence operations.

[jacks13] 11/11/2022 10:16

Adam Rozencwajg, (Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg), talks to Top Traders Unplugged on the demand-side aspects of the global oil and gas supply.


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n.b the first discussion mostly addressed the supply-side, here's the link;

[croasdalelfc] 11/11/2022 10:14

With a lifting every 45 days - JSE next lifting should be Mid August .

[thommie] 11/11/2022 07:21

So that means Jse should get around 100$ for that lifting of 650k bbls including the expected premium to brent.So after receiving this funds the aquisition (they already got 5m$ after adjustments on closing of the deal) Jse will have also got back the cash (41m$).they just paid into the decom fund for expected future liabilities. It's planned to pay another 21m$ each end 2023 and end 2024 to meet 100% of the expected future decom costs for their WI of the field.At current oil prices and with the expected production till year end 2023 they should make real profit for every barrel they produce after that, having met all future decom costs already with the ca 1m produced bbls till end 2023 from now on at 2300 bopd net.

[croasdalelfc] 11/11/2022 06:31

Offtake at OKHA happening now

[mount teide] 10/11/2022 18:17

Had a reply from the company - "Happy to confirm there is no intention to swap out the Montara Venture FPSO for a different vessel........

........this should be clear from the quote given by the company, that is included in the article.'

Sounds like exploring potential interest to sell and charter back the FPSO is probably nearer the mark with respect to the comments made by FPSO market sources.

[mount teide] 10/11/2022 15:07

FB- Exactly.

[fardels bear] 10/11/2022 14:57

And who can be sued for compo if they leak.

[jeff114] 10/11/2022 13:21

When you search for fpso montara venture value you find a link to the article with this quote under it '- "This emphasises our commitment to maximising the life and value of Montara, and the Venture FPSO remains an integral part of that strategy.' From Paul Blakely. But they will be aware of the value of the asset and if they can make a good deal I trust them to do that

[mount teide] 10/11/2022 13:09

Haven't read the report - but it would not surprise me if Paul Blakeley were considering the sale of Montara Venture to an FPSO operator against a 10 year charter deal.

The funds raised from the sale would cover the cost for a material period of a 10 year charter. it would be a smart move politically and from a PR perspective too, as it would transfer the onus onto a professional FPSO operator to maintain the FPSO.

[fardels bear] 10/11/2022 12:25

And the conclusion drawn?

[sea7] 10/11/2022 12:01

Behind a paywall unfortunately. dated 3rd Nov 22

FPSO players keeping an eye on two ageing vessels in Australia

According to multiple FPSO market sources, the Northern Endeavour and Montara Venture FPSOs are on the radar screens of interested parties...

[mount teide] 09/11/2022 15:44

S&P 500 v S&P 500 Energy Sector spread surges to a new record relative performance YTD

+88.70% - Relative YTD Outperformance by the S&P Energy sector

+69.02% - S&P Energy
-19.68% - S&P 500 (inc Energy

[fardels bear] 09/11/2022 09:30

Price been adjusted down to suit a large buyer?

[mount teide] 08/11/2022 20:04

Australian heavy sweet crude premium to dated Brent continues to strengthen after collapsing from a record $35/bbl premium during late summer to near parity before bouncing back.

'Australian heavy sweet Pyrenees grade for December was heard traded at above Dated Brent +$12/b, up around $2/b on the last-done trade.'....Quantum Commodity Intelligence

[winnet] 07/11/2022 21:26

Profit!? I'm still negative!

[mrscruff] 07/11/2022 21:18

US oil stocks ended really high tonight. Will take some profit when Montara starts.

[moonshot3] 07/11/2022 13:22

Deleting and reloading the app also worked for me - just in case anyone else is having the same problem.

[moonshot3] 07/11/2022 12:32

Ok, thanks.