Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 26/10/2022 11:01

O&G Industry Production Efficiency has never been higher than it is today.

Global O&G Industry FCF Generation:

2011
$610bn - All time record
$111.26/bbl - Brent Average Price

2021
$810bn - New Record
$70.68/bbl - Brent Average Price

2022 - Forecast
$1,440bn
$103/bbl - Average Brent Price YTD

The O&G industry today is hugely more efficient than in 2011, a period during which Brent averaged over $100/bbl for 4.5 years.

The industry is currently on target to generate $830bn more FCF in 2022 than in 2011 at an average Brent price some $8/bbl lower, after generating $200bn more FCF in 2021 at an average Brent price more than $40/bbl lower.


O&G Industry Investment has decoupled from the oil price ....... CAPEX discipline, debt repayment and dividends is now the norm.

O&G Industry FCF by Region / 2010 - 2022

[alvarodrs] 26/10/2022 11:01

FB - I remember, and I am still hopeful that they will announce 1-2 more deals in the next couple of months. I don't think they would delay any deal because of Montara's issues as they have more than enough cash to fund any number of small acquisitions (like NWS) or 1-2 medium ones, and if they needed more, they would stop the buyback program immediately.

I think probably the good oil price forecasting and macro-environment have made it much more difficult to close good deals. That might have prevented them from closing some deals they were negotiating. I expect to see a couple of legacy deals like NWS, agreements that had been agreed upon a while ago with a backdated effective date.

[fardels bear] 26/10/2022 10:40

If we remember back a few months they were talking about the possibility of four acquisitions before the end of the year.Do we think that these have been put into abeyance Due to the lack of revenue from Montara currently?Do we think that they're waiting for Montara to recommence before announcing them, if there are any?Ignoring the possibility of external events over which we have no control, I'm just trying to get a feel for where we might be at the end of the year.

[mount teide] 26/10/2022 01:41

Saudi HRH: "It is my profound duty to make it clear to the world that losing emergency oil stock may become painful in the months to come"

[mount teide] 25/10/2022 22:11

O/T - Spotting Market Dislocations - update to post 1176 on my MTB thread, mentioned here previously.

Star Bulk President - confirms at the New York Maritime Forum (video link below), that at a $280/tonne VLSFO-HSFO spread they make MORE money in FUEL SAVINGS per day than they earn in Charter income at a $15,400 spot rate for each ship!

The potential size of the VLSFO-HSFO spread over the medium term as a result of the high cost of producing VLSFO was something even he did not fully appreciate until recently.

Since June 2022, the VLSFO-HSFO spread has averaged circa $360/tonne!

2022 14th Annual New York Maritime Forum - Dry Bulk Shipping Sector Panel


Good to have Company confirmation of something I've been pointing out to investors on Advfn in numerous posts for months.

Even so, strongly suspect the overwhelming majority of the equity market still fails to understand the phenomenal medium term commercial advantage SBLK has over the dry bulk shipping sector, which it's likely to keep for at least 5 years.

Considering the strong likelihood that the VLSFO-HSFO price spread is likely to remain at a very elevated level for possibly years, SBLK offers one of the best investment opportunities I've seen in many years.

Think about it - most companies consider being able to charge 15% more for their goods as being an exceptional commercial advantage if their costs are broadly identical. SBLK is generating 100% more revenue per ship at a $280/bbl VLSFO-HSFO spread than more than 80%+ of the dry bulk shipping fleet, and potentially around 130% more at an average of a $360/tonne spread.

My thanks to Ram, who posted a link to the video on my SBLK thread.

Current VLSFO/HSFO spot spread - Maximum Charter Rate Premium / Fuel Saving Per Day for a Scrubber Equipped Capesize Ship:

$18,645 - Spot APAC VLSFO-HSFO Spread of $339/tonne
$18,315 - Spot Singapore VLSFO-HSFO Spread of $333/tonne

Declaration - recently increased my holding to 20,000 shares.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 25/10/2022 16:18

How wrong can you be ?

"..we do not need any more investments in new oil, gas and coal projects,” Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director. May 2021

"..world is currently in the middle of the first truly global energy crisis" - Fatih Birol the IEA's executive director. October 2022

At last, the IAE finally sees what many here have been predicting for years, after global O&G Capex dropped 60% in 2014 and never recovered, even with the return of $100 oil!


EA: The Current Energy Crisis Is Unprecedented - Oilprice.com today
By Irina Slav - Oct 25, 2022, 1:48 AM CDT

* The executive director of the International Energy Agency has said that the world is currently in the middle of the first truly global energy crisis.

* Natural gas markets are particularly tight, and they are set to worsen next year as demand climbs and Europe struggles to replace Russian pipeline gas.

* As well as being more expensive than pipeline gas, the lack of infrastructure to import LNG to Europe is resulting in delivery delays.


“The world is in the middle of the first truly global energy crisis,” the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said today in Singapore.

The official went on to warn that natural gas and LNG markets would tighten further in 2023, with only 20 million tons of new liquefaction capacity scheduled to come online in that year.

Speaking at the Singapore International Energy Week, the head of the IEA also said that while supply remains tight, demand for gas will continue to be strong, especially in Europe and possibly in China.

Birol’s warning comes amid expectations that this winter will not be the toughest for Europe. Next winter is believed to be potentially much worse because, during the first half of this year, the EU could stock up on Russian pipeline gas, which is unlikely to come back next year, leaving the EU with a supply gap that other suppliers would be hard-pressed to fill.

Meanwhile, as many as 60 LNG tankers have turned into floating storage off European coasts as there is not enough regasification capacity on the continent to unload the cargo.

This, CNBC reports, is delaying some of the tankers’ return to the Gulf Coast to reload, and pushes gas inventories higher, Andrew Lipow from Lipow Oil Associates told the network.

“The wave of LNG tankers has overwhelmed the ability of the European regasification facilities to unload the cargoes in a timely manner,” Lipow said.

The shortage of LNG import capacity is aggravating Europe’s gas supply crisis but there is no quick solution to this problem except floating regasification units that Germany, for one, is seeking to deploy by the end of the year.

Price is also challenging, with LNG a lot costlier than the pipeline gas Europe was used to. Earlier this month, French president Emmanuel Macron slammed the U.S. for setting double standards in this respect, pointing to how gas cost much less on the U.S. market than on the international LNG market.'

[winnet] 25/10/2022 09:58

china's central bank buying tech stocks to stop the rot.

madness.

[fardels bear] 24/10/2022 16:30

Not here, it didn't.

[mount teide] 24/10/2022 11:53

Transitioning out of general market S&P 500 stocks at the beginning of the year into Energy stocks will have delivered a 79.12% relative portfolio improvement.

+57.86% - S&P Energy
-21.26% - S&P 500 (Inc Energy)

+79.12% - Relative Performance

Yet, Energy stocks are still valued at a huge discount to the wider market, despite being on schedule to generate an all time record level of FCF in 2022.

[mount teide] 24/10/2022 10:28

RA - yep, 7.7% YTD - suggesting most of the World's economic and oil demand growth continues to come from its largest economic market....China, SE Asia and India.

With a rapidly growing internal market, and Indian and China still in the early stages of coming out of lockdown, it's no surprise that growth across the region's major economies is significantly outperforming the West.

[royalalbert] 24/10/2022 09:28

MT india GDP also above 7% I believe.

[mount teide] 24/10/2022 09:14

Chinese Q3 economic data surprised to the upside with GDP growth of 3.9%, which if reliable, implies the impact of Covid lockdowns on business activity and fuel demand has not been as significant over the summer as previously expected.

Although below the government’s Q3 target of 5.5% for GDP growth, it was a substantial improvement over the 0.4% in Q2 according to CNBC.

Taken together with investment in infrastructure YTD rising by 8.6% and industrial production expanding by 6.3%, suggest the outlook is on an improving trend, pointing to an increasing demand for oil.

[fuzzle] 21/10/2022 22:01

She does do an excellent tea and cake. Ah go on, go on.

[fardels bear] 21/10/2022 20:48

That's her name this week, is it?

[fardels bear] 21/10/2022 16:18

Thanks very much. Missed that one. Sitting in my ISA. :)

[mount teide] 21/10/2022 15:31

OPEC’s secretary general Haitham al-Ghais said that the oil industry will need a total of $12.1 trillion of investment to meet a 23% increase in global energy demand by 2045, with most of the upcoming increase coming from gas utilization in Asia and Africa.

Uniper Bailout Keeps Ballooning. What started as an $8 billion nationalistation (illegal under EU Law), of embattled gas importer Uniper is gradually becoming a nightmare for the German government as current estimates of financial support needed to keep the company afloat have already ballooned to $40 billion.

Well, well, well - German Energy security trumps its climate change zealotry. The German government has called upon all members of the European Union to expedite the development of new gas fields, triggering the ire of climate activists who claim Europe’s long-term reliance on fossil fuels is in breach of its Paris climate commitments. They don't even try to hide any longer who runs the EU! Routinely running roughshod over EU Rules, Regulation and Commitments to suit itself!

US Softens Tone Against OPEC. Striking a conciliatory tone with OPEC after last week’s fiery exchanges, the US Treasury stated that the Russian oil price cap will not be replicated against OPEC producers, nor would the move signal the beginning of a buyer’s cartel.

[rik shaw] 21/10/2022 15:24

Ex-dividend date: 29 September 2022
Payment date: 14 October 2022

[fardels bear] 21/10/2022 15:18

Anybody know when the interim dividend is payable?

[mount teide] 21/10/2022 09:26

P45 - Further to my earlier posts, guided by the technical information/management statements in the public domain, completion of the outstanding tank inspections and permanent repairs could potentially progress to permit a resumption of production during November.

Leaving the review of the Inspection, Testing and Maintenance arrangements to manage/control corrosion running in parallel to complete, if necessary, after production has resumed.

AIMHO/DYOR

[fireplace22] 21/10/2022 09:17

poacher: From post 11226 (MT's)

'When considering the information in the photos together with NOPSEMA's requirements, we now also believe the FPSO could be back in production by the end of November and possibly as much as 2-4 weeks earlier.'

[poacher45] 21/10/2022 08:29

Santander has sold it's 2.08% stake and A. J. Bell has replaced it with a 0.66% stake. The rest of the 25 major holders have gone up by only 0.07% owing to the small volume of buybacks. Mount Teide you seem a lot more upbeat on Jadestone if you had to guess when production would be back up and running at Montaro when would it be?

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/10/2022 14:28

unt Teide20 Oct '22 - 08:52 - 11243 of 11247
0 United States’ emergency supply of crude oil to the lowest level since 1985, at less than 445 million barrels, from 612 million barrels before the release program began.

This is not particularly good news for a country that consumes almost 20 million barrels of oil daily. The reason it is not good news is that 445 million barrels of oil mean the U.S. only has enough in its strategic reserve for about 22 days in case of an actual emergency.

As above, the US is a net exporter of O&G..... so if they were unable to access ANY domestic oil production, why would they be able to access the SPR?

[mount teide] 20/10/2022 12:22

Montara Venture - The internal condition of the cargo tanks and external condition of the bottom plating in the photos published by the company were surprisingly good considering, the 9 years spent at the field and, the average seawater and air temperature in that location.

[nk104] 20/10/2022 12:21

Apparently Sleepy Joe is releasing another 15m barrels from the strategic reserve, and is demanding oil companies increase production with their profits rather than pay dividends or do buybacks.

Good luck with that.