Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 05/4/2018 08:04

Good morning,

I don't pay much if any attention to trades, so can't really comment.

But it is the last day of the tax year, so if you are right tomorrow should see an end to those tiny trades.

cheers

[bouleversee] 04/4/2018 17:16

I had the same problem trying to buy 500 in my son's ISA which in some ways I can understand more as there is not a lot of volume. Again, I let it go so we've missed the dividend on that one.

Can you understand people buying/selling 11 or fewer shares? Perhaps that's the MMs getting rid of the differentials when people bed and isa-ing and end up with fewer shares for their money.

I really don't understand what was going today unless it was just the end of tax year b&i deals which threw the market. The share price ought to go down further tomorrow when it goes x-d.

[illiswilgig] 04/4/2018 16:28

Boule,

Yes weird isn't it. I've noticed recently with the increased volatility that on line sales are often rejected. Selling seems a lot more prone to this than buying. Particularly on down days. I even had trouble selling some HSBC shares this week. But a few minutes later it all worked - and I got a better price. Fisher has such low volumes I'm not suprised its worse.

Like you chose in this instance I either trade online or I don't trade.

Good luck,

cheers

[emeraldzebra] 04/4/2018 12:46

apols double post

[emeraldzebra] 06/3/2018 09:05

Thanks vm Roddie.

[roddiemac2] 05/3/2018 14:58

emerald,

Whilst I understand the basics of algorithms ( having just read up on them ! ), I have no idea how prevalent they are in day to day trading in any one stock. In that respect , I am an old dog who can`t be taught new tricks.

How things have changed. When I first bought shares over fifty years ago, I used to speak occasionally to a partner in E.B. Savory Miln. He would recommend a few investments ,and confirm those in writing to me. I would choose one or two, and act on his advice; that advice was always good. As a very small fish, I was lucky to have this contact. My boss was his nephew. It was not until many years later that I had adequate savings to invest larger amounts, but my earlier experience stood me in good stead.

I don`t pay much heed to daily price movements , unless they are accompanied by good volume. I try to concentrate on the story.

[emeraldzebra] 05/3/2018 10:54

Roddie - interested to hear your views on mine above. I think it's actually algorithm activity.

[roddiemac2] 02/3/2018 09:21

Phillis is almost certainly right about the market makers.They regularly have a field day here ,in flurries of small trades.

There were three large trades 1459p. on Wednesday.

[bouleversee] 01/3/2018 16:01

There's probably little volume because few want to sell. My family are certainly hanging on to ours.

[phillis] 01/3/2018 15:12

roddie
IF I were a holder something would need to be more obvious for me to sell

I am not a buyer because I feel there is nothing extra in the valuation

The MMs march the share price up and down on v little volume - actually pathetically little

Have a look at Dechra for a REAL growth stock with a fancy rating

[emeraldzebra] 01/3/2018 10:01

Roddie
You make a v good point about the consistency of the company's results. Is it a bit strange therefore, that the share price is characterised by such extraordinary volatility ? I suppose this not a bad thing as it allows adding on the dips. There seems to be a lot of algorithm trading too - deals that involve just single digit trades. All very out of keeping with a very nice and steady performance over a long time. Still seem on the cheap side to me.

[roddiemac2] 28/2/2018 16:58

Phillis ,

After today`s strong rise in good volume ,I guess you have changed your stance from " fancy rating " to extra virgin fancy .

[roddiemac2] 28/2/2018 16:37

illiswilgig,

Well done for adding recently.

I don`t have much to add to what you have already said. My stance remains strong hold .

On the 13/2/18 , over on Shareprice, I said this :- " Their strategy of diversification ( both geographic and by product or service offering ) has enabled the company to compensate for the downturn in Offshore Oil. "---They have done well to achieve this. As Offshore Oil has diminished, so Marine Support has increased. Today we have the announcement that Fergus Graham is being promoted to the BOD, and will be in charge of Marine Support from 1/3/18---: preparation for growth to come?

They have consistently increased the dividend in double digits for more than 20 years ; I think it is 21 or 22 now.

[illiswilgig] 28/2/2018 11:07

Phillis,

your criticisms of debt growing and ROCE deteoriating are accurate. As is your comment regarding eps growth over 4 years.

With my hindsight goggles firmly in place I can see that the company managed sweet FA growth in eps. Provided of course, that you pick the right year to compare with. Let's say 4 years ago just before the collapse in oil prices caused the eps to decline for one year?

So is that your forward looking forecast for this year? Another 1p or 2p on eps?

Of course if you pick the last 3 years instead then the eps growth looks different. Closer to 10% a year. The main division, almost 50% of sales, is currently growing at 17% a year. So you pays your money and takes your choice.

But whichever historical period you pick it's going to be a poor guide to whatever happens in the next 12months?

It will be interesting to see how it works out, especially as I have put my money on one outcome,

cheers

Illis

[phillis] 27/2/2018 11:49

yes indeed illis

eps over last four years has barely changed despite the regular acquistions
debt growing and ROCE deteriorating

Still a fancy rating for a pedestrian business performance

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2018 09:35

Good Morning all!

Results for 2017 out this morning.

Sales £505m (+10%)
Underlying pre-tax profit £50.3m (+10%)
Underlying diluted eps 81.4p (+7%)
total dividend 28.7p (+10%)
Statutory pre-tax profit £49m (+9%)
Statutory eps 79.5p (+1%)

I have to admit that's better than I expected and considerably better than I feared. Not that it will be enough to please the market - very little is at the moment.

No doubt those of a more negative outlook will focus upon the 1% increase in statutory eps.

I'm never happy with negative free cashflow. Though in this case it was flagged in advance and is tied up in the Indian Submarine Rescue contract. The reversal of this during 2018 (all going well) will itself help to increase both cashflow and profit.

Seems that the Marine Support division increased profits by 17% and is now almost 50% of the sales. Seems to have started the new year well and is expected to continue to drive growth.

Specialist technical is acknowledged to have 'lumpy' profits so I'd translate that as meaning any increase in profitability will depend upon winning new contracts to replace the Indian one.

Tankships seems to very profitable but not much growth potential? Been a cash cow for a long time now.

Which leaves off-shore oil. Now a small part of the group (10% of turnover) and low profitability. They acknowledge a pick up in orders - but we've been here before so the caution on the outlook is understood. Nevertheless it remains the case that a small recovery in sales should boost profitability of this significantly.

Buried in the Chairman's statement is a reference to a normal annual growth in profits above 10%. Putting this in the outlook statement would be a hostage to fortune. In the chairmans statement I see this an aim. With Marine Support motoring I expect 10%+ growth in profits in the current year. Providing Specialist Technical and Offshore Oil don't misfire and significantly higher if they do bring in new projects to these divisions.

cheers

[illiswilgig] 22/2/2018 17:35

Did I say it would? I don't think so.

I agree that such a small acquisition will have zero effect now. Small acquisitions that they made a long time ago now form the core of an FTSE250 (at the moment) company. Whether this one has any impact in the future, time will tell

cheers

[phillis] 22/2/2018 16:13

Tiddlers don't give impact

[illiswilgig] 22/2/2018 15:32

Ooops! Nice to be proven right I suppose? But in this case 'twould have been better to have been proven wrong :-)

BTW - the tiddler acquisition not only expands their product range but gives them a strategic foothold in Australia I think. Handy for their Singaporean activities?

as usual time will tell.

and in the meantime looking just like that cheap topup opportunity!

cheers

[roddiemac2] 19/2/2018 22:20

Ilka mickle maks a muckle.

[phillis] 19/2/2018 14:22

yet another tiddler

[illiswilgig] 18/2/2018 13:27

Ha ha!

Amazing how one's strategy can go from brilliant to rubbish and back to brilliant again at the whim of the market :-) Will probably change again on Monday morning. Every possibility that there will be further opportunities for a cheap topup yet.

cheers