Ixico Share Discussion Threads

[halfpenny] 19/2/2020 13:32

IXI should have some great contract news flow. Great technology in high demand. IP is a positive asset to have and its creating more value with every software release. The big companies may even go for a takeover at these cheap prices with a strong IP value. Interesting times ahead.

[wfcreserves] 18/2/2020 12:56

AGM was on 17th January?

[halfpenny] 18/2/2020 07:44

WOW overshoot provides a great opportunity but i expect MM’s to take advantage before market opens. IXI provide a great opportunity at these prices. Software maintains value with the IP being a great asset. AI and the medical space is a must to tuck away. So pleased to get shares at these prices today. History shows it will sharply move up in the short term. Keep on smiling.. AGM was yesterday so i wait for the update shoukd be positive.

[hpcg] 17/2/2020 23:14

In my opinion, which could be proven wrong by future events, Thompson is making a value investor error. Viz, that the share price can't go up as it is now really expensive, so best sell. This neglects that some companies grow. To name one example, I'm not sure that Salesforce has ever traded below a PE of 50, and has sometimes been in three figures, but its share price has gone from $18 to over $180 in 10 years, and from $3.5 in 15 years. CRM first made an operating profit in 2016!

There are UK listed companies such as FDEV and FEVR that have had more rapid rises and substantially higher PEs. In reality the price / earnings ratio is just about the -least significant ratio there is.

[jondev] 17/2/2020 23:10

I didn't sell today - when I heard the advice was to take profits I did think about it for a few mins but instead I had a little top up. It seems quite a few people still have an appetite for this one.

[molatovkid] 17/2/2020 21:34

He should have said 'take profits - quickly'

[hiraniha] 17/2/2020 19:58

The irony is the 'take profits' recommendation has resulted in the price falling back to where ST was tipping it as a buy a few months ago.

[halfpenny] 17/2/2020 17:27

Wiw IXI provide a great opportunity at these prices. Software maintains value with the IP being a great asset. AI and the medical space is a must to tuck away. So pleased to get shares at these prices today. History shows it will sharply move up in the short term. Keep on smiling.. AGM was today so i wait for the update shoukd be positive.

[melody9999] 17/2/2020 16:32

If you are not already holding, today is certainly a buying opportunity at this price.

[martinthebrave] 17/2/2020 15:45

Simon Thompson 12th December 2019 - "BUY"

Annual results from Aim-traded IXICO (IXI:68p), a London-based company that uses proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) software algorithms to analyse images from brain scans were materially better than I had anticipated when I recommended buying the shares, at 33p, in the summer ('Alpha Report: Simon Thompson spies opportunity in cutting edge technology', 23 July 2019). Having upgraded his earnings forecasts twice since then, analyst Chris Donnellan at house broker Cenkos Securities has done so again on the back of the latest results, highlighting the ongoing strong momentum in the business.
The scans – magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) – provide measurements of small changes in brain structure, assess the efficacy of new drugs being trialled, monitor patient safety, and provide valuable insights on different aspects of trial performance. Outsourcing the work to clinical research organisations is proving popular with the world’s largest biopharmaceutical companies that are investing huge sums of money in the field of neurology to target therapies for diseases affecting the central nervous system including Huntington’s, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease.
IXICO reported record annual revenue of £7.6m, up 40 per cent year-on-year, and it’s high value work as gross margins were 6.6 percentage points higher at 65.4 per cent. This meant that gross profit, up 55 per cent to £5m, increased at a faster rate than revenue. So, with a relatively fixed cost base – operating expenses only increased by 14 per cent – IXICO has passed the inflexion point whereby an increasing proportion of gross margin earned from incremental revenue is converted into profit. To put the operational gearing of the business into perspective, IXICO’s operating loss of £0.8m on revenue of £5.4m in 2018 turned into an operating profit of £364,000 on revenue of £7.6m in the 12 months to 30 September 2019. Cenkos had predicted a maiden operating profit of £50,000, so this was a major earnings beat.
Moreover, because gross margins are higher than Cenkos had anticipated, and operating costs lower, the broking firm has been forced to upgrade its operating profit estimates by a thumping 70 per cent to £508,000 for the 2019/20 financial year, and by 10 per cent to £1.04m the year after. Forecasts are based on annual revenue rising by 20 per cent to £9m and £10.8m, respectively. However, even the upgraded estimates could prove conservative given that IXICO has increased revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 35 per cent over the past three financial years and continues to win new contracts ('Profiting from artificial intelligence', 28 October 2019).
Indeed, the closing order book of £15.9m equates to 80 per cent of the combined revenue forecast for the next two financial years, thus providing a high level of visibility and materially de-risking earnings estimates. IXICO has announced five notable contract wins since August, all of which highlight the value of its core technology and ability to unlock insights on a broad range of neurological disorders and across the full spectrum of clinical development.
Interestingly, one of the contracts is focused on a progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) programme for a new client, ahead of patient enrolment. The 12-month contract, worth £400,000, is expected to lead to a larger programme of work in early 2020, highlighting how the expansion of its services into new therapeutic markets. Another new contract involves a study with an existing client that will see IXICO’s AI technology extended and deployed to several sites in mainland China.
Importantly, the company is well funded to maintain its growth trajectory, ending the 2019 financial year with net funds of £7.26m (15.5p a share), a sum equating to 25 per cent of IXICO’s market capitalisation of £31.2m. Strip out net funds, and the company’s enterprise value of £24m equates to 25 times net profit estimates of £947,000 for the 2020/21 financial year. However, if as seems likely IXICO continues to win new contracts, then analysts will be forced again to push through yet more earnings upgrades so that multiple is likely to drop sharply in due course. Buy.

We then have no material news for 2 months....

Today Simon says:

Aim-traded IXICO (IXI:85p), a London-based company that uses proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) software algorithms to analyse images from brain scans, has delivered a 157 per cent share price gain since I spotted its potential last summer ('Alpha Company Research: Simon Thompson spies opportunity in cutting edge technology', 23 July 2019). The share price is up 25 per cent since my last article (‘Playing an earnings upgrade cycle’, 12 December 2019), buoyed by news of a £1.8m extension to a Phase III study in Huntington's Disease, and a £0.6m extension to a study programme in Progressive Supranuclear Palsy.
I really like the company and feel that if IXICO continues to win new contracts then analysts will be forced again to push through more earnings upgrades given the operational leverage of the business. However, as it stands right now, the shares trade on 32 times cash adjusted net profit estimates for the 2020/21 financial year and have hit my 85p target price. Take profits.

Back to 68p - the same price as his "BUY" Tip last December.

Surely he will shortly tell us what a Bargain it is again....

[hpcg] 17/2/2020 15:38

Toffeeman - a fart in a paper bag can move a 40 million market cap stock. Similar moves to today are visible in this chart. For sure Simon Thompson in particular influences prices, but plenty of other commentators do too. It is still a punt because it is difficult for that not to be the case in a micro cap, but at least it is not a jam tomorrow no revenue share.

[frreeves] 17/2/2020 14:38

What happened at the AGM held today I believe?

[battyliveson] 17/2/2020 14:33

I had also been waiting to get in. Purchased a few at 68 and will look to hold for a good while unless real news suggests it is a bad idea.

B

[toffeeman] 17/2/2020 14:25

The IC is completely useless and the idea that they can move a stock price by 25% is not credible

[volsung] 17/2/2020 13:41

Just bought a few for 68p.
Had been wanting to get into this for a while.

[mad foetus] 17/2/2020 13:38

Even conkers has been shaken out of a few as a result of that. ST plus illiquid share works both ways. Doesn't affect the long term prospects though

[molatovkid] 17/2/2020 13:37

see post 173 above Toffee....

[toffeeman] 17/2/2020 13:35

A stock doesn't fall almost 25% for no reason

somat oop methinks glad I don't have to make a sell call on this (in via Guinness AIM)

[molatovkid] 17/2/2020 13:26

Some stops would have been triggered there....anything from 83p-68p...cleaned out in a few minutes. Brutal.

[bmel] 17/2/2020 12:49

Simon Thompson in Investors Chronicle just posted a 'take profits' article.

Personally i will let it ride.

[molatovkid] 17/2/2020 12:46

Looks to me like we have a seller

[buying] 17/2/2020 12:34

Got stopped out and have bought back in. Hoping it was a tree shake

[deltaham] 08/2/2020 10:43

Alison Howie (Chief Product Manager) tells Proactive London's Andrew Scott they're to provide funding and expertise for the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).

Two of IXICO's scientists will join the private partner scientific board of ADNI which is looking to develop clinical, imaging, genetic and biochemical biomarkers for the early detection and tracking of Alzheimer's disease.

[someuwin] 31/1/2020 13:40

IXICO‏ @IXICOnews · 11 minutes ago

Our Chief Product Officer, Alison Howie will be participating in a panel discussion on AI tech in healthcare at next week's LSX World Congress! Check out our latest news post for more info:
#ixicoupdates #AI #neuroscience #LSXworld @LSXLeaders