Itv Share Discussion Threads

[exlogiclad] 26/9/2021 21:45

On what has been posted above, perhaps the share price is being supressed intentionally.

[hades1] 26/9/2021 21:40

ITV are massively under valued vs the competitive sector.

[hades1] 26/9/2021 20:51

Yes they are in the best shape ever so I can’t explain why their share price is under so much pressure except the general market wide pressures.

[nige co] 26/9/2021 20:35

A 10% increase on 2019 advertising would be most welcome Hades, thanks for sharing your findings.

[hades1] 26/9/2021 18:23

Yes all brilliant news.
So nothing explains the drift down of the share price except a general malaise over the FTSE100, UK and Markets in general.
Keep strong as ITVs recent share price decline is not justified.
They are absolutely in the best shape ever!

[stansmith3] 26/9/2021 17:23

awesome info

[hades1] 26/9/2021 17:05

Incidentally I now have some latest industry numbers for ITV advertising revenue - remember these numbers have to be accurate as they are used in to price television airtime between agencies and the broadcasters (here it’s ITVs).
Sept (21vs20) +18%
Oct (21vs20) +19%
November looks similar
Remember 2020 Sept-Dec were already strong.
I estimate 2021 ITV advertising revenues could be +22% vs 2020 and +10% vs 2019!!!!!!
A record year.

[hades1] 26/9/2021 10:58

I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss LGs (John Malone’s) interest in acquiring ITV?
LG (John Malone) have some form in this area. They always play the long game. It took them over 8yrs to finally take complete control of Telewest, then NTL/Telewest and then Virgin Media. I think their position in ITV was originally taken to firstly deter any competitors from trying to buy ITV but also to allow them to control the timing of any takeover/industry consolidation.
They certainly never overpay and have spent the past 6yrs very cleverly averaging down the cost their initial position (initially bought BSkyBs 6.4% position at 185p, additional 3.5% provided by GS using a Leverage/hedge mechanism at c.225p).
At the end of 2020 they announced that they now owned a full 9.9% as ordinary shares and had managed to significantly reduce the entry price.
Currently LG via their Virgin Media subsidiary are lobbying the UK Government to allow further UK Broadcaster consolidation i.e merger/takeover of CH4 by ITV.
LG (via John Malone)also has a controlling interest in Discovery Communications which is currently merging with WB in the US.
Discovery Communications also have other small TV channels in the UK and have a close relationship with both the BBC and Sky - They have launched the Discovery Plus streaming service on Sky Q and VM.
Timing is everything but LG have certainly also been side tracked in the UK by Brexit and their VM merger with o2 - originally tried to tie up with Vodafone but ended up selling their EU interests to Vodafone and so left them concentrating on the UK.
But who knows but it’s certainly been a long game.
Lastly apologies for wittering on but I do have more than a passing understanding of the industry.

[matthewr1] 26/9/2021 10:40

I think that’s correct from memory. The point being they won’t do that unless they want to bid , which right now is pretty unlikely as they’ve held this stake for such a long time.

[nige co] 26/9/2021 09:44

Hades, thanks for clearing that up.

[hades1] 26/9/2021 09:37

I think the point is that if they went to 10% (the min trigger level) they would be forced to declare that they were not intending to make a full offer for the company within 6 months or indeed make a full offer at that point (min offer pricing parameters are in the take over code).
LG are already at 9.9% just below the trigger point.
At 9.9% they are already ITVs largest shareholder.
Hence it’s now all or nothing.
That’s my understanding but happy to be corrected.

[nige co] 26/9/2021 07:19

"If Liberty Global were to go above 10% they would have to bid immediately"

I wasn't aware that if someone owns more than 10% of ITV that they would have to make a takeover bid?

[hades1] 25/9/2021 22:31

Stag6
Sorry but the Guinness case was an isolated incident that took place 40 yrs ago.
The world of business has progressed enormously since the 1980s.
The policing over the area of compliance in particular has risen to an almost intolerably high level especially post the financial crisis of 2007/08.
I am sorry but I believe your recent posts are entirely misguided.

[stag6] 25/9/2021 21:38

mathew1...your faith in the financial establishment is to be admired.

The only problem is there are as many crooks in white collars and pin striped suits in the City as there are in Her Majesty's Prisons.

[stag6] 25/9/2021 21:29

Institutions will always sell to the highest bidder and that’s only achieved in a public bidding process so I don’t believe in your ‘cloak and dagger’ scenario.

You are 100% correct, it is cloak and dagger within the club. The club is made up of the .0001% elites and institutions who own this country and we are not members.

What goes on in these circles is criminal but hardly anyone gets their collars felt. Always remember that not one person of note has gone to prison here or in the USA, so to use your words, 'the cloak and dagger' stuff is rife.

Remember Distillers, they only got sacrified because their faces didn't fit in the City.

[matthewr1] 25/9/2021 21:28

Just to clarify:
If Liberty Global were to go above 10% they would have to bid immediately.
There is no third market as such. There are crossing networks and algos , but again the rules are very clear that all volume has to be printed.
The reality (imho) is that a significant amount of the free float is tightly held and not traded. Secondly the shares are between updates , so news flow is thin. Thirdly , the general market volume is not great due to general uncertainty. Tapering in the US is casting a significant cloud (over quantative easing) , twinned with Chinese malaise , COVID etc etc…. As have said before , uncertainty kills volume as fund managers don’t make investment decisions (trade), so sit on their hands.

[hades1] 25/9/2021 20:23

… although if LG increased it’s stake we would be the last to know but I don’t think that will happen at this point - Now it will be all or nothing.

[hades1] 25/9/2021 18:12

Institutions will always sell to the highest bidder and that's only achieved in a public bidding process so I don't believe in your 'cloak and dagger' scenario.

[stag6] 25/9/2021 17:57

Registered maybe, made public information no way.

Liberty Global own 10%, but if they increased their stake, we the public wouldn't know until it was announced. IMO the journo's would get a heads up an hour beforehand.