Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[albert3591] 20/3/2019 19:49

See how the markets react to TM 8.15 speech.

[davemac3] 20/3/2019 19:29

anybody know any more about the patent dispute? It says defence so sounds like IQE are being sued but what for?

[sspurt] 20/3/2019 17:48

No. Not resolved. It has gone to arbitration and result expected in Sept.

[jamesrowe] 20/3/2019 17:11

Do we know if the patent dispute mentioned in the reults has been resolved? If not, presumably costs of approx £1M for defending the suit imply a potential risk of > £1M.

[tomduck] 20/3/2019 17:07

137p = a PE of 24 for 19. Seems fair enough, let’s see

I thought we’d end the day lower, decent performance considering the “kitchen sink” earnings

[coolhandfluke] 20/3/2019 16:40

Is red the new blue?

[american idiot] 20/3/2019 16:38

73.95p UT

Early dip down tomorrow am on broker notes then the share price might just stabilise IMO.

[fuji99] 20/3/2019 16:32

Peel Hunt Reconfirms Its “Buy” Rating on IQE PLC (LON:IQE) Shares Today
Posted by Peter Kolinski on March 20, 2019 at 11:07 am

[bulltradept] 20/3/2019 16:23

Fair enough.

[american idiot] 20/3/2019 16:21

Bull,

Never say never. Ive seen 3 or 4p taken off the IQE share price towards the closing bell a few times in the past.

[dr_smith] 20/3/2019 16:17

Thank-you Kazoom. I do know html (subtle test follows) but didn't know that, but have wasted too much time already today w/o formating.
I am passing on info prepared for my own benefit, I am not here to do what IQE should be doing.
Not said in hostility to your helpful suggestion, but in frustration with IQE poor communication.

Dave

[regasclockwork] 20/3/2019 16:08

sweenoid - 20 Mar 2019 - 07:38:26 - 25230

"Not exactly what I was hoping for, time to read it again." -End-

Eight and a half hours have since passed. I know it was a long read, but didn't think it would take that long to 'dissect' the contents.

"What's Up Doc"[Bugs Bunny]. If you can find anything positive hidden in there, please slap it on here as I and your army of fans are dying [don't go there regas] to hear some good news. Many thanks in advance.

[bulltradept] 20/3/2019 16:03

Not going to happen AI today, you've made your money from this for now, otherwise that's not a high probability trade. I too did OK on this today, didn't get your fill though unfortunately.

[jamesrowe] 20/3/2019 16:02

If you don't like the numbers then just 'spin' them and use alternative facts if necessary :-)

"The proportion of sales generated from photonics products accounted for 28% of the Group’s wafer sales in 2018, up from 31% in 2017."

[american idiot] 20/3/2019 15:55

The sell bots have got this now for the rest of the day.

Mr Market marked it down to 70p first thing this morning then we saw a bounce.

For whatever reason the initial markdown price is normally met again by mysterious magnetic forces.

If we reach 70p today then I might just buy a few for an early few pence bounce tomorrow morning.

[kazoom] 20/3/2019 15:55

DR - just in case it is of interest, you can actually format data in readable tables on ADVFN using the HTML < TABLE >, < TR > and < TD > tags. Quite easy to do in excel - I could share a template if you wanted.

[prokartace] 20/3/2019 15:51

Sold out at 45p because the hype was not real. Yes I missed out on a huge profit but would rather that than the losses most investors are sitting on now. My expectation in the next 3 months is 40p at which point we will have come back to reality and I may, but only may, consider buying again. And before you even go there, I have no position so my opinion is what it is, no more, no less

[dr_smith] 20/3/2019 15:21

Further to my above post, I have now transposed the 2018 segments and growth rates, taking either middle or low end guideline figures to derive combined revenue for next 5 years.
Capex for years 3 to 5 is stated as "In line with business opportunity" so in absence of other info have used the 2019 figure of £15m.

Jumbled below, but a copy/paste into google sheets seems to restore format.

revenue 194,588 246,574 287,743 344,860 424,252
margin 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
margin £ 000 19,459 24,657 28,774 34,486 42,425
capex 40,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
margin less capex -20,541 9,657 13,774 19,486 27,425

I am human, make errors, haven't done any cross checking, done as a rough cut for myself, so use at your own peril!

Dave

[jamesrowe] 20/3/2019 15:13

The picture for 2019 would I suspect have looked a lot different for IQE if the Apple order had resumed on 1st Jan (I think IQE was expecting end of Q1 but do we have any confirmation of this?). We would then have been looking at an extra 3 months of high volume high margin VCSEL revenue and that, from the impact that it had on 2018, would have been significant even if Apple is now looking at reduced sales compared to its original forecast. It would be nice if profit could somehow be regularly reported by companies on a rolling 12 months basis to remove the artificial impact of fixed calendar dates for the annual reporting. :-)

There was perhaps some element of over-optimism in Apple's original phone forecast that ultimately did benefit Apple due to generating over-capacity in the VCSELs market and thus presumably putting pressure on supplier margins.....

[bulltradept] 20/3/2019 13:44

So now we know they are investing for the future, any real catalyst for future share price growth appears some way off.

Is that about the long and short of it?

[dr_smith] 20/3/2019 13:32

"The investment we have made in site rationalisation, increased production capacity and new products and the opportunity that this has created in the key sector areas of sensing, connectivity and energy, will deliver margin expansion, growing profitability and increasing free cash flow in 2019 and beyond”."

Does "free cash flow" mean cash that is free, or is it a return from some machines, but not seen, not actually free, as swallowed up by capex in further machines.

"Since taking on the lease of the building as an empty shell, IQE has completed the first phase of construction of cleanrooms and services for up to 20 MOCVD tools, of which, the first 10 tools have been installed and are in various stages of commissioning and qualification.
....
When fully occupied, the Newport facility will have the capacity to house up to 100 high-volume production tools comprising a mixture of platforms (MOCVD and MBE). To put this into perspective, prior to the start of the current expansion plan, the Group operated around 100 legacy tools across its entire global facilities, so the expansion when completed will create almost three times the manufacturing capacity "

Last para sounds impressive, wow, look at all those machines they will have..
but from my read, a glaring ommission, I believe all they have is floor space to put them on. How do all those extra machines get paid for?

In accountancy there is the term "over-trading", when co's try to increase supply quicker than their cash flow can support. I don't know if that is allowed for in their projections.

In the "Guidance" paragraph, capex is helpfully shown as pounds, but the revenue (operating margin) to fund that capex is expressed as a percentage. e.g. Is 15% operating margin enough to fund £40m capex? Maybe the figures are there to derive, but why not laid out?

So is the free cashflow mentioned before to go into that capex or what is left after?

This inflection point, this ramp up, this jam tomorrow is extremely significant, so would expect to see it clearly how they forecast the implementation, the sales revenue versus capex spend being managed, along with the looong delay between tool bought, set up and qualification before producng anything useful - and even then the product can be subject to being obsoleted for various one-off reasons.

As Tim Pullen is more an onlooker for events of past year, not living, breathing, meeting suppliers and customers, trade show interaction etc, I wasn't expecting a change in style for how projections are presented.

In the future, this "essence" this transition and managing ths inflection point spoken of, must be clearly conveyed.

If the extra machines mean furthers rights issues, well..that can upset and diminish the jam for both long holding s/h's and the instis paying £1.40.

Dave