Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[richardc77] 02/5/2018 14:51

Sadly I have no USA trading account, but Macom at $16 (from $60+) was crazy, and a "no brainer" good to see it recover...

[picobird] 02/5/2018 14:48

It’s interesting to note that when Lumentum engage with a customer it is in respect of production two years away. From that perspective we would appear to still be the No 1 supplier of wafers to Lumentum. Secrecy is the key word in 3D sensing re APPL & the Android customers.
IQE are very highly regarded in this industry for maintaining privacy re customers & also for their Reliability & Dependability & Quality. The yield rates for Lumentum are such that their competitors will not be encoaching on market share either now or in the foreseeable future.

All in all.....what an amazing day.

[thevaluehunter] 02/5/2018 14:40

Yep I definitely wouldn't want to be short IQE. Next couple of days will be interesting.

[grity] 02/5/2018 14:38

Looks like Macom are off to the Races!
& Out the Gate ;-) +25%

[sweenoid] 02/5/2018 14:12

This CC is painful, because just behind the CEO I can imagine Tim Cook is holding his balls and threatening an imminent tight squeeze if he should ‘err’ in terms of giving any guidance relevant to Apple at all.

FWIW - review of Lumentum and CC -

Lumentum results are in and am listening to CC, it’s what they say about H2 that’s all important;-)- not much actually

Lumentum of course do the VCSEL design for the vast majority of iPhone arrays , I fully expect Lumentum’s position to be retained with Himax and 11-V1 and Finisar as back ups. I would also expect at least 2 of those companies to outsource VCSEL wafers to IQE.

Beyond VCSELS Lumentum are very big in Datacom and cloud computing, their laser business is doing ballistic business

Bare bones of report

Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE): Q3 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $298.8M (+16.8% Y/Y) beats by $6.22M.

As with Macom laser demand is exceeding their capacity to produce product , they are increasing manufacturing capacity - great for IQE .

Comments made about reducing 3D sensing revenues are related to the PREVIOUS quarters, no relevance to IQE as during the period mentioned , our comparator is the same time 12 months ago when revenues from 3D sensing were zero ;-)

Once again they will only give accurate guidance for this present quarter ending June 30.

What is quite obvious is that H2 CY is going to be great for 3D sensing- we already knew that but I guess it’s nice to have it repeated once again. Again , the emergence of Android 3D sensing is perhaps far more important and relevant. They mention EE lasers ( edge emitting) , which of course is an inferior stop-gap measure ( my comment) but again are supplied by IQE. 3D last 1/4 and June 1/4 was down due to seasonality, they point blank refused to expand even though their last 1/4 was obviously better than they had guided- cagey- hey and totally due to Apple NDA’s ;-)

ANDROID customers are demanding both VCSELS and EE’s , obviously their VCSEL business is far far greater than the EE businesses, they are increasing capacity in both to satisfy expected demand.

Yields are very positive for 3D sensing modules ( no doubt thanks largely to quality of wafers they get from IQE, as stated in annual report)

3D sensing arrays are being changed slightly to radically , so a broad range of changes occurring , different applications obviously needing different ‘tweaks’ , gotta be good - companies like Lumentum will be FOCUSING on their module development and capacity there, this means OUTSOURCING is going to be a very important plus factor, IQE can concentrate on producing high quality high yield wafers and these companies concentrate on module production - verticality had had its day! :-)

Android introduction of 3D sensing will initially be in high end smartphones and then ramp up and diversify through 2019, note that AMS have said they WILL be shipping some Android modules later THIS year.

CEO will not answer any questions on demand from their biggest customer because Apple won’t let them - so I guess there is no point in listening further. I guess, individually we all have to make our own guesses

Another 24 hrs and 2 more very big customers reporting- Qorvo tonight and Skyworks tomorrow, I expect positive comments.A very good reporting season for IQE methinks

Will comment tomorrow, and then that will be me done for a week or so.
S

[mad foetus] 02/5/2018 14:04

And the share price up by 10%. All looking positive, just need a bit of carry through here...

[ojh2kent] 02/5/2018 13:31

Apple defies doubters

hxxps://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/home-banner/apple-defies-doubters-as-iphone-sales-revenue-rise/?ID=003w000001UKsX2AAL&utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MWL_20180502

[darkdogs] 02/5/2018 13:20

"Though seasonally down, we made good progress on new 3D sensing customer programs and are well positioned for new customer product introductions during FY19. lumentum

[sweenoid] 02/5/2018 13:18

Lumentums headline figures good but all the detail I want will be in the cc, I shall listen and report back, there will be a lot of noise on acquisition of Oclaro but analyst Q+A will hopefully be helpful, will expect news of wins and progress with ANDROID 3D sensing , in addition to the ‘plethora̵7; - my new favourite word of Apple iPhones which of course won’t be mentioned :-)

Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE): Q3 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.07.

Revenue of $298.8M (+16.8% Y/Y) beats by $6.22M.
S

[jerseymike] 02/5/2018 13:07

Happy to see one of shorting funds has gone - now ONLY 8.5%. Long way to go still to see correct value here.

[thecrunk] 02/5/2018 13:03

Am I being naive for expecting more out of today on the share price rise.

Or is there still more to come (good or bad) depending on Lumentum results.

[regasclockwork] 02/5/2018 12:48

rivaldo2 May '18 - 11:10 - 16889 of 16890
0 5 0
"Peel Hunt today reiterate their Buy and 170p target:" -End-

Peel Hunt - IQE's joint-broker. 'Recently' reduced from 225p to 188p to 170p.

And they are on our side - 'working' for IQE.

You would expect it to be going in the other direction. What do you think they are trying to tell us?

I'm hoping to have a little top-up later today when/if the euphoria has subsided. If it retains its high, so be it.

[thecrunk] 02/5/2018 11:37

Now is the time dedicated shareholders should be profiting from the hard work of the company (which they are handsomley rewarded themselves for through stock options).

Bur unfortunatly despite everything going exceptionally well, exceptional news, we can't.

Why.

The price has shock absorbers on in the form of shorters.

Why?

Because of the silent mute board.

[rivaldo] 02/5/2018 11:10

Peel Hunt today reiterate their Buy and 170p target:

[suffersnofools] 02/5/2018 10:26

IQE loves a fib :)

You can see why the 102p level was good support - convergence of long term upward trendline support and fib support. If that support fails then downside target is in the 80's. Need to break above the overhead downtrend line, currently around 135p to give power back to the bulls. Also need some volume, which has been declining.

So the bull base is a move up to 130's where I would be a seller of my trading shares bought at 90p during the Shadowfall debacle. Bear case down to 80's - where I would be a buyer.

[regasclockwork] 02/5/2018 10:20

adejuk2 May '18 - 10:04 - 16881 of 16883

"what happened to 'cheap as chips' under 160?" -End-

It just got better:

sweenoid14 Nov '17 - 16:00 - 8947 of 16882

"I feel almost guilty saying it , but I am RAISING the Sweenoid cheap as chips level 🍟 to sub 185p , will keep the target share price to 225p." -End-

No advance since then, but best to be safe than sorry?

[thecrunk] 02/5/2018 10:19

What does a machine look like anyone have a link? Also why is it so time consuming to install it. Assume the answer is that its an incredibly complex excercise.

[mad foetus] 02/5/2018 10:12

How many contractors are working on site at the moment? It could be that we are building infrastructure as quickly as possible commensurate with ensuring continued quality. Perhaps the number of machines is not the only metric the board are thinking about.

[senor_sensible] 02/5/2018 10:05

Most semiconductor companies are offering a 52 week leadtime, Silicon is in very short supply and will take a couple of years to normalise, increased capacity will help. Area of exponential growth going forward will be GaN, especially in the Auto EV sector where there is expectation of at least 10 years of YoY growth in semiconductor use for PowerTrain, Anciliary equipment, Smart functions and also on board and offboard fast charging. strong buy and hold here..........Biggest problem we have is meeting the ever growing market demand

[adejuk] 02/5/2018 10:04

what happened to 'cheap as chips' under 160?

[richardc77] 02/5/2018 10:00

TW, true to a degree, however I prefer the 3rd parties to confirm the market is going from strength to strength than the opposite...and I am relatively happy that IQE are not ordering extra machines before they are very certain they need them. They could obviously see the sluggish QTR the sector just went through and took a conservative approach. However if we get to the end of this year and they haven't ordered more that would be a little more concerning to me.

[twatcher] 02/5/2018 09:50

I think the certainty of increase in the future of all the markets that IQE serve is well established by now. So unless there is a global depression within the semi-condutor industry, all these great 3rd party forward looking statements have little/no effect on IQEs fortunes.

As Hammerd2 pointed out some time ago, and re-iterated by Sheep_Herder, the key metric is IQE announcing a ramp-up of wafer creation capability beyond that which is already known and factored in.

If they don't do that, then unless they can dramatic change the profit per wafer, by selecting output for which they can charge more, then their fortunes in the next 2-3 years are quite visible, regardless of industry announcements.