Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[qruz] 28/10/2017 17:16

Does anyone have a nice summary of key dates till the end of the year?

I remember reading that a customer of IQE's earnings is next week? and we could also expect some updates on IQE sales in other areas the next few weeks?

Thanks!

[suejarvie] 28/10/2017 13:33

Clunk, I happen to be an astronaut working for N.A.S.A lol.

[chessmaster10] 28/10/2017 13:27

The analyst estimates are out there, although as the analysts themselves acknowledge, they are conservative.

If you choose to dismiss them, and create your own estimate, then go ahead, it'll make interesting reading considering how much assumption and guesstimating will be involved. You clearly have limited knowledge of the company (1 wafer per phone?), but are now going to provide THE most accurate prediction of 2018 revenue. Look forward to reading it.

And despite my sceptical tone, I'll have no problem congratulating you if you produce something credible.

[obiterdicta] 28/10/2017 13:27

Hi crunk.thanks for that. If iqe is at the start of a huge growth in sales, profit and eps, detail on numbers are thin on the ground as no numbers out there. But the point you make is a good one that numbers from lumentum and others are being revealed which will allow for more evidence based forecasting. OD

[thecrunk] 28/10/2017 12:49

No body has answered my question yet? What is their 2018 revenue forecast.

Those that did attempt to answer my question simply gave a reference to EPS forecast per an analyst report. There are so many varied assumptions deriving EPS lets just start off with something as simple as Revenue? I have seen no revenue forecast by Sweeonid either it has been loosely discussed with no one making a real estimate.

If you own this stock and have not done your own revenue forecast then you own it simply because you have invested on Euphoria and not I.

I have read all the analysts reports myself which do not do a good job at all at forecasting revenue and I see reading through the last 3 months of messages on this board that no one has attempted to forecast revenue in any level of detail. Perhaps because its not an easy task.

I happen to be a portfolio manager for a fairly Large Investment Bank and was a top rated analyst in my youth. So give me a week and I will work on a detailed 12 month forecast for you.

As an aside when 2017 year end audited results for component manufactures such as Lumentum gets released it will become close to possible to determine the cost of wafers purchased and estimate the number of units produced etc. Also a number of other factors relating to forecasts and valuations will become clearer. So I see a situation around Q1 2018 where people will be able to create much more reliable and accurate valuations for certain of IQE's existing revenue streams.

Responding to other comments - the response to me that Q4 I phone orders of 40m does not mean you will have 4 quarters of the same in 2018 is dead wrong. Watch out for Apples earnings call. 200m units may be conservative. A number of highly respected members of this board said I phone X sales for 2018 will only be 60m units vs. my 200 units. Can we discuss this again after the Apples earning call please.

My general point here is that I do not feel anyone on this message board is discussing in any level of details the fundamentals which derive the valuation of this stock. Start for example with Revenue.

As an aside I do agree 100% with Sweenoids point that wafer manufacture is incredibly complex and I do not see the Chinese catching up anytime soon. As for the fact that apple like to diversify their supply chain. Apples direct suppliers are Lumentum, IV-II and others. So Apple do not identify IQE as a supplier meaning IQE will not be diversified out.

The purpose of my messages was to gain general input into peoples own revenue assumptions before I build and distribute my own model to this board. However the input I have received has been nil. Fair enough you may comment on my model when I release it.

Best

Crunk

[grabster] 28/10/2017 12:20

Quick, somebody, start a (GOAT) thread before this gets too bogged down in animal husbandry!

[thereptile] 28/10/2017 11:56

Aiming upwards. Not all cashmere is the same. I believe the softest comes from the Neck region of the Capra Hircus Laniger if my memory serves me correctly. And of course not all wafers are the same, there's this little company in Wales that makes a very good product I believe. Can't recall the name right now

[htrocka2] 28/10/2017 11:37

Related item.

[sweenoid] 28/10/2017 10:43

I prefer the omelette analogy ,but you can wait for that till Monday :-)
S

[meijiman] 28/10/2017 10:33

Problem with that analogy is the its not the goat farmers in Mongolia who make the margin -its the likes of Armani. Still useful enough to understand the supply chain.

[skinny] 28/10/2017 10:24

Goat farmers!! :-)

[pugugly] 28/10/2017 10:21

mf - That was what I was trying to get across with the words "sole suppliers (even those I suspect one stage removed)" (Obviously did not succeed) Agreed we are the goat farmers and possibly should have used the words "2 stages removed" but Armani would I suggest be keeping an eye out for other goat farmers if the goats from the current farmer had problems or an existing (but not current supplier to the fabric manufacturer) farmer was able to improve the quality of their cashmere by say genetic improvement of their goats' hair -

Example: PV Crystalox (PVCS) a European leader in the production of bulk silicon for solar cells sold to European solar cell manufacturers which were either made into solar panels and then sold onto the domestic or industrial market but the whole production and distribution chain collapsed with the rapid growth of Chinese producers along the whole length of the production and distribution channel. Wind power generation nearly went the same way but successfully fought back.

[mad foetus] 28/10/2017 09:54

Pug,We are not a supplier to Apple. We supply a complex raw material to those who supply Apple. Analogies are not always helpful, but you could think of us as the equivalent of the goat farmers producing the world's finest raw cashmere, which we then sell to fabric manufacturers, who in turn sell to the Armani's of the world. Armani might not want to only use one fabric supplier, but if they want the world's best cashmere, they have to buy from someone who sources from us.

[pugugly] 28/10/2017 09:03

sweetnoid: Thanks for confirmation - Agreed very difficult to make - also for a non techi like myself (FMCG marketing background) virtually impossible to understand BUT Apple have a history of not liking to be beholden to sole suppliers (even those I suspect one stage removed) so just cautious about when alternative VCSEL wafer suppliers (might be able to match our then quality) might catch up and where - I suggest most unlikely that we (I am a holder from low double digits thanks to your advice) will continue to have a virtually quality monopoly and raising the question of when we might be likely to see competition and from where. I have painful (costly) experiences of the decimation of European and American silicon and solar cell producers by the Chinese.

[sweenoid] 28/10/2017 08:42

Pugugly
You talk about NEW entrants to the VCSEL market, I can tell you that is NOT a concern
Sure we will get competition from current VCSEL suppliers, but as I keep repeating AND proving they are ALL 18 months behind IQE and with the huge expansion in Newport due on line in early 2018?( rent free!!) IQE are not resting on their laurels, they will be EXTENDING their capacity way ahead of the rivals

It would take any NEW company 21/2 years MINIMUM from entry to production of fully validated and qualified wafers .....and who would want to buy from them?,
Repeat after me , a VCSEL wafer is EXTRAORDINARILY difficult to make,VCSEL wafer is EXTRAORDINARILY difficult to makeVCSEL wafer is EXTRAORDINARILY difficult to makeVCSEL wafer is EXTRAORDINARILY difficult to make

And the iPhone X is a win win win scenario for IQE whichever way it pans out
S

[pugugly] 28/10/2017 08:32

FT Weekend today re iPhoneX - "analysts agree that the product will remain scarce for longer that most of its predecessors" This could (imo) cut 2 ways for us - Either slower but sustained revenue growth from Apple or on the positive side more demand from Apple competitors for our wafers - Only problem might be - can we produce enough to meet demand and therefore not trigger protential new entrants ramping up their production plann with the downside implications on pricing and competitive supplies.

[sweenoid] 28/10/2017 07:43

Nice, a big customer who values IQE so much, they made IQE their supplier of the year 2016 doing well, mainly using our infrared products :-)

S
EDIT
Of course the performance of the hyperscale companies is a joy for IQE, last weeks hugely well received report from Amazon is fabulous for us in the data storeage and cloud businesses, this article is pretty good, it's all about the cloud THE CLOUDIER IT GETS , paradoxically the CLEAR it gets for IQE 🤣

Remember - we are far more than an iPhone play ......but let the market believe it , the rest will come as a massive surprise 🤑

Thought this was quite a good article

[pebsi] 27/10/2017 18:28

Just caught on the thread to see what was happening regarding the share price crunk, good questions and started a nice discussion that answered a lot of questions I daren’t ask. Stick with this B.B. some good people on here that don’t mind sharing their time educating. Gla

[taffy100] 27/10/2017 18:07

iPhone X Pre-Orders Begin, Apple Says Demand 'Off the Charts'

[maxwellsdemon] 27/10/2017 18:01

True or False? :-)

From the first link:

..........The fragility of the components reportedly created problems for Apple suppliers LG Innotek and Sharp. At one point, only about 20 percent of the dot projectors the two companies produced were usable, according to a person familiar with the manufacturing process. The suppliers therefore slowed production in an effort to prevent breakages but lowered the required level of precision to compensate – a decision apparently mandated by Apple. ............

The Dot projector is still very much "work in progress" it seems.

[steptoes yard] 27/10/2017 17:38

Windsor
I'm hearing 5.5m orders in China already

[skinny] 27/10/2017 16:32

A steady week for a change.

[meijiman] 27/10/2017 16:29

Going to be a great w/e at Marshall Wace............