Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[chessmaster10] 27/10/2017 13:14

Crunk, you're pushing to understand the revenue for fy2018, but seem to be fixated on VCSEL revenue.

Not sure if you're clear on this, but VCSEL revenue for IQE is part of the Photonics revenue which in turn is part of the group revenue. As per my previous post, photonics accounted for circa £23m of £132m total revenue in 2016.

Granted, Photonics is offering the biggest growth to the company in the short term... but if you're hoping to get an understanding of IQE total revenue for 2018 by precisely estimating the VSCEL revenue then you're urinating against the wind. Why aren't you asking what wireless revenue will be worth in 2018? This is currently the biggest earner for IQE.

As Sheep pointed out, it's also unreasonable to extrapolate 200m units of iPhone years per year based on a 40m estimate for Q4 2017. Its the launch + run up to Christmas... that performance won't be repeated for the next 4 quarters.

[bocase] 27/10/2017 12:57

Sheepy:

Yes 6-9p EPS next year would be fine by me too. Even if we take the lower figure of 6p and assume that the P.E. stay as it is now ie 49(which is rich of course - but so it should be given the expected growth rate) that would put the shares at £2.94 next year.

[sheep_herder] 27/10/2017 12:45

crunk, if you go back far enough all this has been discussed already. You're just 6-9 months late joining in.

The price to IQE per iPhone - yes, guestimated by Peel Hunt using guidance from the company. A lot better than you guessing.

iPhone X sales - they always peak in the release quarter. Don't expect the same number to ship every quarter.

Sammy S9 - I very much doubt we'll see any Android phones competing with Apple until at least 2019. See the previous discussion about volume ramp up and the need for the new Newport facility.

The analysts are estimating between 6-12p EPS in 2018 which is fine by me. I think we'll see 6-9p and then as the volume picks up in 2019 it will march on.

[hammerd2] 27/10/2017 12:37

I love the filter button. If used wisely it saves a lot of headaches.

[thecrunk] 27/10/2017 12:05

I hate to be a c..... crunk about things. However the point I was trying to make is that no one knows how much revenue IQE is actually going to earn in 2018. The analysts forecast which Sweenoid has based his 75c around has a lot of guessing involved.

This is not a situation where you know the selling price of a car so you forecast how many cars are going to be sold. My point is I actually think it will be a lot higher than people are currently forecast.

Also I phone X - Apples own internal target for I Phone X sales alone for Q4 2017 were 40m units. Thats 40m a quater or 160m annualy. Given how current demand had been today and the fact that it is now predicted that Apply will have a supercycle in 2018 I think 200m units is not a far off number.

IQE have also stated they have mutliple contracts customers. So I would not be surprised if IQE wafers end up in the Galaxy S9 around mid year 2018.

All I am saying is that revenue could be a lot higher than everyone thinks.

I am pleased with today's per-order results and share price movement.

Looking at things from a different angle. Sweeonid maybe for you. We know how many foundries are needed for a given level of apply I Phone unti sales roughly.

One can roughly guess IQE revenue then from the planned level of foundry roll out over the next 24 months. Its a lot higher than current analysts forecasts I believe IMHO.

As to tesla having VCSEL - this would be a small module on the interior similar to that found in an I Phone that recognizes the driver when he is sitting in the drivers seat.

I also agree/acknowledge that IQE has other revenue streams.

My aim is to promote some thoughtful discussions and methods and guesstimating what IQE 2018 revenue could be because it seems to me discussions are lite on this topic and it should be important to anyone.

Also perfectly happy for my name to be used as the C word as an euphemism for someone over euphoric. However please note I am actually not euphoric I am just trying to get various ways at guessing revenue for 2018 other than "Swenoid said it must be therefore it is". No offence Swenoid I think your posts are good and others are quoting you out of context. I do respect you as someone who has the best knowledge of this company and I would be very interested to see you have a couple of paragraph crack at a 2018 revenue forecast for IQE

[aphrodites] 27/10/2017 11:55

WatteNe

I agree with pyglet’s 140p being an important barrier to break.

The shorters have been playing games over the week and have endeavoured to keep a cap on the share price and below 140p.

Similarly, your 147p will be a resistance level having hit it twice on 18 August and 13 Sep. They always say if a level breaks on a third attempt it can “mark lift-off”.

There has been a very firm consolidation in the move upwards since the price hit 120p on the 26 September and my EW chart analysis supports another start of 5 waves upwards with us being in Wave 1. But I am worried about the low daily volumes.

MarshallWace or others will no doubt try and take the price down back below 140p at the close. As I posted on 13/10 & 17/10, if you were a trader 140p is a good level to take profits.

But if I was playing a short game I would be worried about the present positive chart move and I would not want to sell at this point in time.

But I wouldn't want to be short "full stop". They must have a long position in another share to offset against which is out-performing.

[pyglet] 27/10/2017 10:51

What I meant was that initially you could buy one in a store and go in and pick it up next Friday. That option soon went and now it's a 5 week wait.

[wattene] 27/10/2017 10:07

For those interested in the black art of charting, next resistance price point is possibly 147, and then 160ish before blue skies, and the uptrend re-instated.:)

[maxwellsdemon] 27/10/2017 10:00

You had to be quick to nab an iPhone X.

Preorders for Apple's newest phone began at 12:01 a.m. PT Friday. Within the first 10 minutes, few models of the device were still available online for a Nov. 3 shipping date, the day the device hits stores. Within about 10 minutes, the silver model from AT&T, for instance, wouldn't ship for two to three weeks after the launch date. Within about half an hour, all models from all US carriers had ship times of four to five weeks.

In a reverse from previous years, Apple's store app appeared to be down for users for about 10 minutes. In the past, Apple's website hasn't loaded quickly, and only people accessing its iPhone and iPad app were able to preorder devices when sales began.

[blueflame] 27/10/2017 09:37

Not sure what you mean Pyglet. It was only pre-orders this morning. Nobody has any until next Friday at the earliest. Wait time is now 5/6 weeks on the Apple Store.

[pyglet] 27/10/2017 09:33

Iphone X now unavailable through out the South of England

[aphrodites] 27/10/2017 08:51

Interesting to see WorldQuant reported today that on 24 October it reduced its short position to less than 0.5% and is no longer required to report its short position. If it has one any longer!

But on the other hand, MarshallWace has increased its short position from 2.6% to 2.71% on the same day. And on that same day the share price was up 7.2p. This was on a day when the share price hit 132p in early trading and finished on a high of 138.5p.

Interestingly MarshallWace reported it increased its short to 2.80% on 28 September since when it has been trading its short position quite actively.

Hopefully the next few days will prove the shorts have made very costly investment decisions!!!

[skinny] 27/10/2017 08:42

Looking good.

[firtashia] 27/10/2017 08:31

The C- word? Whats that, Corbyn?

[pyglet] 27/10/2017 08:25

140p is the bogey price to break

[bocase] 27/10/2017 08:23

Chronic shortage of iphone x this side of Christmas. Probably good news for the final numbers as lack of supply in the short term will increase demand even more.

www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2017/10/26/apple-iphone-x-launch-release-date-price-availability-cost-specs/#1125f1cf70f4

[blueflame] 27/10/2017 08:20

Already at 4/5 weeks delivery. Got mine though, cant wait to have those VCSEL,s in my hand ;-]

[sweenoid] 27/10/2017 08:17

Sheepy- we have had our serious disagreements, but I am running out of allies.....don't desert me 😂

In the meantime within a few minutes looks like the X is ALREADY on 2-3 weeks wait for delivery, it will be up to 4-6 by the end of the day
S

[sheep_herder] 27/10/2017 08:07

Ha, who'd have thought we'd develop our own dialect on this thread.

sweenoid you crunk! Stop being so damn positive!

[sweenoid] 27/10/2017 07:59

1st I think anyone using the C word about anyone ...should have his post moderated :-(

Anyhow, yet more evidence that our Indium phosphide business is doing well ( the bit that EVENTUALLY via our direct OEM's supplies the hyperscale customers -Amazon, Google etc etc)



AXT supplies the SUBSTRATE from which our wafers will be manufactured, historically and I am guessing currently they have been a big supplier)

iPhone X preorders commence worldwide in 1 minute-watch the wait times increase literally by the minute for deliveries :-) ;-)
S

[grabster] 27/10/2017 07:50

And that's one of the reasons that Crunk's obfuscatory line of questioning is meaningless. (His true agenda is clumsily given away in his shorter posts). Different intermediate users chop the wafers into different numbers of pieces and utilise those pieces in different ways and numbers in a mixed range of different components, which in turn find their way into a myriad of end products put together by various makers in their own mixed ranges of products. Working out what tiny piece of wafer ends up in one particular end product among many products produced by just one end-user company, even when accurately deduced, tells us very little about IQE fortunes. It's a bit like trying to calculate Lafarge's prospects by counting how many bags of cement at what price are used by one particular housebuilder in one particular style of house among the many styles that they build and sell - ignoring the tonnes that go into paving, bridges, garden gnomes and whatever.

[thereptile] 27/10/2017 06:28

DGriffin

Iqe are paid per wafer irresespective of where they eventually end up

[dgriffin100] 27/10/2017 01:29

Apologies if my question shows lack of knowledge, but I am just getting up to speed with IQE.

Is there hard evidence that IQE are paid on the basis of the number of end-user units sold? Is it not possible that they are just paid for the wafers? I understand that IQE have a fairly strong position in the market, but is it really strong enough to capture a share of the final products? From Apple's point of view, they have a proven product and no need to share risk.

[ayl30] 26/10/2017 22:34

Sorry wrong board