Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 06/9/2017 09:27

Nice move.

[bocase] 06/9/2017 09:11

Yes I would agree with Sheep_Herder

Run your winners and cut your losers.

All to often amateur investors do just the opposite.

[sheep_herder] 06/9/2017 08:59

netcurtains, come on now, go back inside, your nurse will be cross with you.

tonsil, buy more. Plenty more growth to come and I'm not sure you'll find anything that is a better bet. It's not like there's any sort of question about whether all this tech is needed or not, it's coming. Reassess after the high growth period of the next 5 years I'd say. Run your winner.

[tini5] 06/9/2017 08:53

I see the Daily Fail had a piece on IQE and like so many others, said a likely deal with Apple was the cause of a price rise

(facepalm)

[tini5] 06/9/2017 08:48

Tonsil - sell some, put it in CPX.

[netcurtains] 06/9/2017 08:42

anyone know why its been going up over the past few months?

Could it be people switching from IMG - sort of weird hedgers

[bocase] 06/9/2017 08:41

Not sure if this has already been posted. Apologies if it has.

[...]

[toffeeman] 06/9/2017 08:35

Tonsil

You should sell (some) if you can identify a better investment going forward, otherwise hold.

All the research tells us that investors are too slow to sell losers and sell profitable investments too quickly.

TicTac

Yesterday's price action had jack sh1t to do with management and everything to do with private investors selling as the price dropped on open.

[shavian] 06/9/2017 08:32

If the follow-through from yesterday continues in strength, and cracks the current psychological resistance at 150p, the naked shorters' nerve will crack sooner or later, followed by a whoosh in the share price and a small blizzard of P45s at Marshall Wace etc. I sense some Nick Leeson-like desperation in the tenacity of their positions. Wishful thinking on my part?

[pi0110] 06/9/2017 08:31

Owenga said....

"Maximum capacity. People keep talking about 300m revenues. Capacity is not a revenue number it is the amount of wafers it can produce. As we move to more valuable wafers, I would expect capacity in revenue numbers to actually increase. So we could be looking at 350-400m before we hit full capacity. And as we heard yesterday, they have already started buying more tools to increase capacity further. Hoping for at least 160m revenues in h2 2017."

No capacity is not revenue but neither is IQE charlies chocolate factory with Oompa Lumpas turning out what ever figures PIs bandy about. We all know what current revenues are it's bloody easy to find out, what we don't know is how much management are estimating for future revs, do you? unless you have inside knowledge knowing what capacity management are planning for is the next best step. Where did you get your non unitised 350 - 400m estimate from? got an Oompa Lumpa friend who works at IQE? or figured it out from tool capacity?

[mad foetus] 06/9/2017 08:30

Tonsil,Sell a few. Always keep a balanced portfolio. Let's say there is a 90% chance that IQE is £5 within 18 months and a 10% chance there is something wrong and the share price will collapse. Everyone investor should take that bet, but make sure their position is such that if the unexpected happens they are not wiped out.

[tonsil] 06/9/2017 08:22

A few of us have been holding IQE and accumulating since approx 2010 and like me I suspect LTHs are now seeing IQE dominating their portfolio. In my case it has long since breached the notional holding value limit for a single share. This would normally be resolved by selling a proportion and rebalancing the pf. The question is should we make an exception for such an important company? I have decided to run it for a couple more years and then review but I can't buy more at these levels. My last buy was at 26p. Am I being short sighted?

[sweenoid] 06/9/2017 08:11

I hate talking about 'shorters' particularly hedge funds , but it's obvious that Marshal Wace have about 15 million IQE shares short, the manager of that short may be 'offsetting' against a long position although my gut feeling is that they are short -period. If that is so, that's a lot of shares to buy back!?
S

[aphrodites] 06/9/2017 08:09

bocase

As I have posted previously I fall into the same "lack of technical understanding category" as yourself with IQE, maybe a tad longer than 40 years!! :-)

But like you I do understand the financial aspects supporting a share price.

You have summed up the potential of IQE's share performance superbly and I concur.

Buy now at £1.50 and sit back calmly and watch the price climb steadily from here.

That's the name of the game and one which will make us all a lot of money.

Well done for stating the facts so simply.

[bocase] 06/9/2017 07:53

Mirabeau

Of course share price valuations are worth of discussion. I for one am not capable of joining any discussion of a technical matter but am grateful to Sweenoid, Sheepy and others for sharing their understanding of the products but after 40 years of investing in the market I do understanding share price valuations.

It is clear that of course if the company was going to maintain it's current level of profitability then the share price is vastly over-valued but clearly it is not. The share price discounts future profits which put simply means if you don't get on board now then you will have to pay a lot more to do so in the future. For example it is reasonable to assume, given the diverse earnings stream and the barriers to entry that will protect the margins, that the earnings per share will rise to say 10p or even 15p in the next two or three years or so. It is also reasonably to assume that the growth rate will continue at a high level beyond that therefore a PE ratio at that time of 30 or even 40 is fair. That implies a share price of £3-£6 in two or three years time.

The question then arises: is paying £1.50 now a good investment and the answer must be yes..therefore the share price is cheap..providing the company delivers on it's expectations and they may well exceed them.

[sweenoid] 06/9/2017 07:52

Macom are doing presentations in the USA today and tomorrow which will be broadcast live at 2.30pm our time if you are interested. it would be great if we get an update on GAN RF basestations- it's going to be a HUGE money earner for IQE , and is coming big- time in 2018 , the big question for me is will we reap revenues in 2017 too?
Just a reminder to oldies and news for newbies
I have communicated on a number of occasions with John Croteau CEO of Macom and amazingly he has replied , in a follow up to my previous reported discussion where he stated that IQE was central to Macoms Indium phosphide business ( data centres, fttx etc etc) as well as the RF GAN business, I asked him about whether he still saw GAN ON SILICON as still being disruptive , he answered

"Yes, David, I'd use the word disruptive for things we are doing short, medium and long term in Basestations.

In my scripted earnings remarks this quarter I also drew attention to the fact that 5G has been announced, and it'll be the first commercial embodiment of our active antenna strategy. This, combined with GaN, presents MACOM as a very strategic asset to Basestation manufacturers worldwide. Think of it as GaN applied in active antenna configurations. "

Which is nice - I particularly like the mention of SHORT and medium as well as long term.

S

[owenga] 06/9/2017 07:51

Very pleased, but surprised by the share price reaction yesterday. Having read the rns I was somewhat underwhelmed, not because of the past 6 months which had already been flagged, but how little meat was actually on the future. There were a few snippets of interest, particularly around near term opportunities which already seem to be in mass production, but so little discussion about 2018 eps.Looking at the presentation full year eps is still only forecast to be about 3.5p, let's hope they are being ultra conservative. Again nothing in the presentation about 2018, but I think this should tak care of itself given that it looks like other products apart from vcsels are now already in or about to go into mass production, which none of the analysts have yet taken into account. Is 8-10p eps for 2018 realistic, I hope so.Maximum capacity. People keep talking about 300m revenues. Capacity is not a revenue number it is the amount of wafers it can produce. As we move to more valuable wafers, I would expect capacity in revenue numbers to actually increase. So we could be looking at 350-400m before we hit full capacity. And as we heard yesterday, they have already started buying more tools to increase capacity further. Hoping for at least 160m revenues in h2 2017.GLA. Expecting a strong share price day today!

[nickyknows] 06/9/2017 07:18

Cashed out yesterday at market close.To buy back in at market open.....can anyone foresee a share price dip this morning?Sweenoid thanks for all your excellent analysis and views has been most enlightening!

[wrongmove] 06/9/2017 06:35

@pi0110, @whalehq. Thanks. Yes, think my logic failed me late in the day.

Current capacity of 100 tools sounds the logical conclusion.

[mirabeau] 06/9/2017 05:34

It's all getting a tad precious on here with all those gargantuan egos bashing into each other.

Sweenoid's input has been pivotal especially in my case. I have been on the verge of selling so many times and would have done so if it wasn't for my constant re-reading and re-absorbing of his posts to remind me of the value to come here.

All opinions are equal though some are a little more equal than others!

Thanks to all

[sweenoid] 06/9/2017 05:25

Mr Scott
I wasn't abusing you personally, what I was doing, was marvelling at how you have such a large following,it's obvious that you are highly respected and regarded as a 'guru' by your 'followers'. I can assure you that no personal slight was meant or intended. i won't ever make reference to you again, I frankly wish I hadn't got distracted and not stuck to the core reason I post here.

All posters are intent on increasing their wealth, as I pointed out above , you and I and others are of the same mind regarding IQE and long may that continue,

I almost knew that Tempus in The Times would make a comment this morning, I thought it would be a sell, it's a hold, fwiw it's the second article down.He has commented on IQE a number of times, I am not sure where he gets the notion about moving from AIM to the FTSE, it's a move that I would support, but has up to now received little support from management- I have asked them directly at AGM's! To be honest their AIM placement does not seem to be holding them back AND recent daily volumes have shown that investors don't mind buying..and selling on AIM either. Personally I used to think a FTSE placement was necessary, it obviously isn't :-). I like the fact I don't pay stamp duty on purchases and the potential Inheritance tax exemption.




S

[fullbright] 06/9/2017 03:32

Chipmaker IQE slips despite saying its ‘outlook has never looked better’

FT obviously written before end of day