Iqe Investors - IQE

Iqe Investors - IQE

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type Stock ISIN Stock Description
Iqe Plc IQE London Ordinary Share GB0009619924 ORD 1P
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
1.00 1.37% 74.15 10:23:13
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
71.45 70.80 74.15 73.15
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Top Investor Posts

sweenoid: TALKING OF WILLING BUYERS, SOME SPLENDID NEWS I am delighted to say that The amazing Katie Potts in her stellar Herald Investment trust is BUYING IQE. At the end of December IQE was her 16th biggest holding ( about 350 companies in portfolio globally) , was 19th at end of June and has gone from 0.9% to 1.1% of her fund. My thesis is she will still be picking up stock and be close to Top 10 in next 1/2 year report Of course back in 2016/2017 IQE was her number 1 pick but like the savvy investor she is, she took her profits and reduced to below the top 20, she cited bb pumpers and dumpers as one of the reasons for the sale. Other investors and fund managers look carefully at what Katie Potts is doing SAY NO MORE 😊✅ 8079; hTtps:// S
sweenoid: Thanks Boboty So the ‘enemy’ 😉11V1 have put in what appears to be a knockout bid for Coherent, trumping both Lumentum’s and MKSI’s offers. If you listened to the Lumentum conference that I linked earlier this morning, you will understand how upset Lumentum’s CEO will be, as he spent a considerable amount of time on the call (AFTER THE 3D sensing chat that was SO positive for us) ‘talking up’ Coherent and its management. Relevance to IQE IMHO management are often distracted by any acquisition process. I therefore hope that 11V1 wins the bidding round, and it gets distracted, rather than Lumentum. Having said that they made it clear on the call they are in an ACQUISITIVE mood......anyhow. I will repeat the CC link, if you haven’t watched the 1st 15 mins then you will miss out, it’s SO good for us. hTtp:// WELL WORTH THE 1 minute spent registering S
sweenoid: 2 posts about our 3D sensing business and major customers , which I think are very relevant. On a freezing cold morning, they will help ‘warm’ you up. Quite a few of you are getting twitchy about 11V1, and their ‘increased’ market share of the 3D sensing market. I have previously explained why I am not concerned, but perhaps if you need reassurance have a look/ listen at the 1st 15 minutes ( 1st 10 if your rushed)of this Goldman Sachs zoom investor conference held yesterday and listen to what the CEO And COO say ✅, there are MANY great comments, particularly when asked about Lumentum’losing’ market share to a competitor ( 11V1 - not named),but the best one for me goes something like this “ our competitor has finally caught up with what we were doing 3 years ago’ 😂, it’s also great to hear the CEO so confident about 10% growth min. YOY in that business. The comments and confidence are incredibly encouraging. Enjoy- do register, if you are invested in IQE it’s really very informative and INCREDIBLY REASSURING ( if you need it) hTtp:// go to the Goldman Sachs internet conference link It’s quite obvious that 11V1 are ‘winning’ slots in the Face ID ‘basic’ aspect of 3 D sensing, whilst Lumentum ( and hence IQE) is focused on the DIFFICULT, INNOVATIVE , COMPLEX new applications S
sweenoid: Don’t get too fixed on Newport v IQE, there is no doubt that ‘demand’ for compound semiconductors is on the UP and that’s what is being expressed by Drew Nelson. That demand for Newport is driven by the exponential rise in electric/ battery driven cars. IQE’s markets which are MULTIPLE are ALSO rising exponentially, where there is DEMAND, there is PROFIT So back to IQE 😊✅ and SOME VERY GOOD AND TOTALLY EXPECTED ( by me anyhow) news from a major customer The earnings season starts with a BANG for one of IQE Biggest customers. ✅ We ALREADY know that IQE have a very productive relationship with Raytheon and I am as close to 100% certain that this announcement in the November trading update referred to that business “This has been evidenced by IQE receiving its largest Military & Defence sector purchase order to date from a major US customer, for both infrared and high-performance RF applications. With a combined value of more than US$10 million, the order will be deliverable over the next nine months”. Well,Raytheon has just reported its quarterly earnings and update 😊✅. WHATS MOST IMPORTANT TO IQE IS THE OUTLOOK...and it’s very good. Rather positive for us! ✅😊. Remember, we are Not Interested in their ‘enterprise’ businesses, IQE are all about their DEFENCE/MILITARY business. This says it all - from their CEO “In 2021, our strategy of harnessing next generation technologies across our resilient and balanced portfolio will continue to drive differentiated value for customers and advance our industry leadership for years to come. Combined with our recent structural actions, we’re well positioned for sustainable growth and profitability in 2021 and beyond” They have a ROBUST defence backlog of $63 BILLION and “strong positions in high growth areas” That coming from a MAJOR CUSTOMER is good news indeed. If you want the full earnings release. Investor presentation here hTtps:// Results announcement here hTtps:// By the way anyone believing the new Biden administration would go ‘soft’ on military spend, should rethink, this is the statement made by Biden’s newly appointed Asia Tsar Kurt Campbell on the response to the China threat in Foreign Affairs . “The United States needs to make a conscious effort to deter Chinese adventurism, This means investing in long-range conventional cruise and ballistic missiles, unmanned carrier-based strike aircraft and underwater vehicles, guided-missile submarines, and high-speed strike weapons. … [The U.S.] also needs to work with other states to disperse U.S. forces across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean … [and] to reshore sensitive industries and pursue a “managed decoupling” from China. … Washington will have to work with others to … collectively design penalties if China decides to take steps that threaten the larger order.” Off topic now - but interesting, for me as a ‘historian’ it is anyhow If you are interested in that ‘foreign affairs’ article here is the link, but it’s related to geopolitical issues, not IQE 😉 it’s actually rather a scary article, WW3 looms methinks? Think Thucydides- who said 500 years BCE when a major incumbent superpower ( USA) is threatened by an up and coming ‘new boy on the block’ ( China) there is inevitably a war- in his time it was Athens and Sparta. On that line if you want to read something at night to keep you awake I recommend Graham Alison’s excellent ‘Destined for War’ an appraisal of ALL the instances through history where the Thucydides trap led to war or near it. hTtps:// S
montanaro: Bocase, a quick further reply probably for the benefit of the generally interested PI's who read this and invest with professional managers: firstly Terry Smith is absolutely no gentleman but he does know how to read a set of accounts (viz his wonderful Accounting for Growth books) and he has enormous "skin in the game" to use that awful Americanism. I manage my own funds, however for those who prefer to have external managers run by excellent people, from my experience and the people I've worked with and got to know, I have incredibly high respect for the achievements of James Baker at Chelverton for growth/smallcap, also he is one of the finer gentlemen I've met, of whom there are many despite inevitably the likes of the nastier elements such as Smith and Montanaro who have emerged from the sewers by comparison, and also I'd highly recommend Sebastian Lyon who has done the most stupendous job for investors at Troy Asset Management at protecting investor capital, again a total gentleman of utter integrity and fantastic longer term focus, the two Troy funds I'd recommend there would be Sebastian's own Trojan Fund and their excellent Spectrum fund of international funds, I think their website has all the info. He also runs the quoted Personal Assets Inv Trust. Others I'd mention in passing would be Jonathan Ruffer, who always impressed me with his fantastic intellect and who is in the same breath and style ie capital preservation as Sebastian, Gervais Williams (enormously sound) and Katie Potts' Herald IT for a broad based tech only exposure, all of those three are greatly impressive and trustworthy people. In my time I was an award winning manager rated AA by S&P Fund Research, more by luck than judgement and a long time ago now, among others I worked with Nigel Thomas who was among the very best investors I came across, a gentleman and a big "star name" which is a horrible pressure in itself (which happily I was not!), but I think Nigel has retired now, I no longer really keep up to date with the comings and goings of the star men, but James Baker and Sebastian Lyon will never lead their investors into any kind of Woodford style debacle (not that I ever recall meeting Woodford)! Hope that helps. As ever, Monty.
montanaro: Three replies: Terry Topper I used to be very familiar with the IHT relief terms but not so much in recent years and it may be one of the considerations in play that has prevented Dr Drew from prioritising a move to the Full List. It was always my understanding, and this may be incorrect, that an AIM listing wasn't the only pre-requisite, that subsidiaries had to perform a qualifying activity (we do) and that more than 50% of the business has to be UK based (we aren't). My opinion only but the Board need to consider the best medium term interests of the shareholders, whatever their reasons to own shares, and of the company, and no doubt both the broad gamut of the shareholder base would benefit from a move to the Full List even if it would impact some in terms of losing various tax breaks, and as for the company, it would certainly benefit from the transition, in terms of its credibility with international investors, its access to capital markets and its position within the UK market's structure ie a member of the FTSE Mid 250 in all likelihood and a leading constituent of the FTSE Tech Index. There are many reasons for the Board with new CEO to turn this particular leaf and now we are threatening a long term run of profits and profit growth, it seems no time is like the present. Knackers, I like your optimism and realistic conservatism and like Savvy I am only one of a couple of aggressively bullish people here, scarred as most of us are with the last few years of disappointments we have often become too blinkered to recognise the positives of the journey traveled to date, and after the existential period of 2018-2019 which led to our headlong plummet to 20p in March, it's small wonder we have a cautious majority amongst our midst. My own bullishness a year on is compared to my hopeful straw clinging for my commentary on the outlook at the start of the 2020 year, looking as I was at certain psychological turning points that had happened amidst the wreckage of 2019 and clinging to the belief that nothing could be worse than 2019 going forward, it's quite a sea change a year later. Covid of course has been the spur to take economic activity into the next era of technological innovation, and that's where IQE will be a huge beneficiary. I don't often like to pin my colours to the mast predicting share prices, but on this occasion as stated I confidently believe we will see a new all time high in 2021, that means going through 180p and probably hitting £2/share. We have several chart barriers to get through for sure, we're just trying to overcome the 72-73p barrier to which I recently alluded to as a key short term obstacle. I'm sure getting past 100p will also be a fight if and when, as will 140p. In 2016/17 it took 15 months to go from the 20's to 180p, now that was a pretty extreme exponential climb which for various good reasons discussed ad infinitum proved unsustainable. A single high growth application in a single mass market consumer product wasn't a great basis ongoing, with hindsight. But it did lay the foundations for where we have got to as we are about to start 2021. None of us appreciated the length of the investment cycle that needed to be undertaken and accomplished and on which the £95m raised plus more has been spent. BUT that said at the time the institutions had GOOD REASON to take the placing, zero discount which is highly unusual and is a reflection of the OVERWHELMING DEMAND FOR STOCK at the time, a demand we could very soon replicate IMHO all for the right reasons and perhaps many similar ones. Cycles turn and often faster than we anticipate, both to the upside and the down. There is no room for disappointment ongoing for IQE if it's to meet my prediction. I should add nothing I write here is either anything other than my personal opinion, I'm not trying to actively "ramp", pump, encourage, entice others... fine, I got my sister to buy a few thousand more shares last week as I believe it's a no brainer right now. I get no benefit if the shares go nowhere or rise to my target for 2021 as I expect to be a shareholder regardless far beyond 2021, with a target far higher quite frankly than 200p for my eventual exit. But I don't use this bulletin board to induce other people to follow my opinions, this bulletin board is an interesting confluence of expertise and opinions that benefits all of us. I would urge everyone to take whatever they want from my bleatings, but to simply take them as my honest opinion of my current state of the IQE union. If you agree or disagree, that's great. Only time will allow us all to learn what will have been the outcome. Time left egg on the face of any number of us in 2018 and led to an horrific bear market that allowed me to buy shares last March at the same level I'd bought when I first invested in IQE in 2016. Heaven help I'm ever given that opportunity again. Which leads on to my third answer, my reply to Lordlol... Well my Lord, here is where I think you're looking at the current valuation, the current p/e, the current relatively muted advance, partly muted by the company's own caution, right or wrong, in September which I note even they have had to upgrade. I think when you start predicting, as I have, a near tripling of the share price within 12 months, you have to have really good reasons, and those reasons must all come right. Those reasons have to lie at all ends of the spectrum, from the psychological end to the accounting end and with every issue in between. What I'm predicting, ie a move from 72p last night to 200p, is a de facto explosion in the share price, that's a pretty big IF in normal circumstances. It's predicated on 3 or 4 key dynamics: 1) the market doesn't understand the earnings capacity of this business, it doesn't understand the incredibly high marginal profitability of the marginal sales as they grow over and above the core fixed costs, so the potential economics of IQE certainly can justify a premium rating as I've been arguing for a while now, and forgetting profits if we just talk cash generation, every reason to believe as sales grow there will be a very high cash conversion of profits going forwards... so of course there are some quite strong drags on earnings that will kick in to increase costs, for example annual rental payments for Newport, increasing tax charges as prior year tax losses are utilised, etc but these shouldn't be more than a modest restraint to earnings going forward. Clearly they need to get the business right, but there's strong evidence they are executing and strong evidence from our customers that the growth will continue with the roll out of 5G and the adoption of 5G mobiles by the consumer over the next two years with industry forecasts of a doubling to 500m 5G enabled units sold in 2021 and 1 billion in 2022, before we even start thinking about non mobile earnings streams for IQE. This is a golden scenario for earnings to grow well beyond the single application single consumer product scenario we were looking at in 2017-18. 2) if you compare the situation now to the situation a year ago, the psychology is completely reversed. At the start of the year I was hoping we'd seen a turn based on a couple of key factors, namely Dr Drew's deal with EFT that seemed to me to be a terrific buy signal as Dr Drew was de facto announcing a line in the sand at which his stake was very undervalued in his opinion; also the changing constitution of the BoD was giving me real cause for optimism and at the time it was clear that Tim Pullen was starting to really take a conservative approach to the company's accounting policies, something we've seen ongoing in the last two reports, indeed I would argue that he has been far too conservative witnessed by the recent write off of the IP portfolio/CREO against the latest technology announcement wherein CREO is clearly a potential major revenue earner... but look a year back and our collective psychology had been shaken by the two profit warnings the company issued in from memory June and October 2019, the bear market in the share price was ongoing and Donald Trump was full on in his trade war, with our sector, judging by Lumentum's and Skyworks' wrecked 2019 p&l's, right in the firing line albeit our supposed exposure to Huawei per se was less than 5%. So really it was a question of digging out the psychological positives from the embers of destruction. Roll on 12 months and things are shaping up very differently. Almost all of our communications in 2020 have been overwhelmingly positive, with only the disaster £75m second half minimum sales forecast coming to mind as anything the bears could cling to, since upped to £80m and imho almost certainly likely low field. I think the psychology of our news flow is likely to get better and better going forwards and that will have investors, and I don't believe they are at the moment, focused on the gem that's emerging in their midst. There's every chance IQE is set to become a major UK tech business and even more chance of that with Sir Phil Smith and a suitable new CEO directing matters. That platform wasn't in place in 2017-18, I very much hope with the new CEO we will have a person of such capability to take us there. He's certainly being handed a fabulous platform from which to really launch the company into the 2020's, a decade for which this company has been waiting since the 1990'S I'd argue, ie the decade in which silicon chips become increasingly redundant at the cutting edge of technological development 3) LLOL you have a fundamental flaw in your argument by quoting P/E as the yardstick on which you would value IQE. This is not Vodafone or Marks & Spencer. This is a near unique, absolutely vital component manufacturer operating in a market that looks like it could grow at very high compound percentages throughout the 2020's. So the P/E to Growth ratio might start to really justify the shares as hugely cheap, as I believe them to be, let alone all of the other metrics being employed by sophisticated technology investors. Why else would they all suddenly be massive bulls of companies like Uber etc that have no earnings and are probably going to burn cash for quite some time?? And even if I agreed with you that the current P/E was high enough, you're not looking forward as the market will to 2021, when the market will be looking at 2022 and 2023 profits and should like what it sees. That's one of the fundamentals on which I think 2021 will see the shares go through the previous 180p high. My recommendation would be you read a couple of books on the strategies of the most successful growth managers, there won't be much mention about P/Es... As I previously recounted, when I sold Microsoft at $92 in 1999 it was on 84x sales. When it peaked at $110 in 2000 it would have been on 100 times sales. Right now IQE sells on a bit over 3x sales. 4) add to all this a change of listing which will bring lots of passive buying, bring lots of exposure to international buyers and far more credibility for them than is currently projected for our AIM listing, it's a no brainer to change to a Full Listing imho... 5) and then there's momentum; as mentioned in a recent post we all like to use charts to predict where a share could go, but in reality it's a snapshot in time that gives us a vital take on where investors are currently placing bets. Three things are obvious: a) the 2018-2020 bear market is over and on the balance of risk/probability the shares are more likely to enter a new bull market phase than to return to a further ghastly bear market down leg albeit such an event is a perennial risk in any such investment b) the shorts this time last year were holding 9-10% of our equity and it's now been reduced to 2-3% so it's very clear which way they have an opinion going forward c) we've not even started to attract the momentum investors, a massive pool of capital that chases the tail of successful companies - whether you like it or not there are many strategies on which various pools of capital align and target investments and the four best known are income, value, growth and momentum; you just need to look at the extreme example of Tesla to know the force with which a tidal wave of momentum investment can create not just a spike into an exponential share price but also an ongoing ever larger momentum, in some cases such as ours it becomes a bubble of course, but actually with IQE's ongoing shorter (2-3 year) and medium (3-5 year) outlook it's really an increasingly attractive proposition not that we will get to 180p as we did last time and then freeze because there was no follow through, but that we'll get to 200p and then be well set to go onwards towards 400p, 700p etc over the foreseeable future as it will be at that time. Well, I guess with Savvy Investor I'm about the most bullish commentator on this board, but that's my experience of such situations and it's very rare that you look at a company with as many boxes I'd like to be able to tick in an ideal scenario, only to find that I can actually tick a substantial number of them. I'd like to see some further evidence of insider buying; I'd obviously like to see a continued ongoing momentum of positive news flow into 2021 ie as of the year starting next week. I think we'll see that for sure, albeit maybe the September prediction that could be "non linear" could yet make us uncomfortable every so often as we were for a few weeks in September - personally I was very disappointed at the time but it gave everyone a great chance to climb aboard even if in reality it mainly seems to have given the short interests a chance to close out their positions. All the above, once again, absolutely IMHO, absolutely only to be taken with whatever pinch of salt anyone who has got down this far should read it with. I am a LTH, I'm not interested in manufacturing a short term rise in the price, I have no other interest than a block of several hundred thousand shares and no interest in selling those. Except in extremis I expect to be a LTH in this company for several years to come. Anyone reading this should DYOR, read the likes of Sweenoid and others for their technical understanding which I don't profess to have whatsoever, read several excellent posters here who follow our customers and their views on our end markets, and take what I say at the face value of what I express, which is the rather lop-sided view of an ex growth/small cap investment manager who has both enjoyed and suffered in equal measure over our travails between August 2016 when I first invested at 27p, March 2020 when I next invested at 27p (and a fair few times in between!!) and now. I really hope we all have a great year ahead. As mentioned, if we do, we won't probably be looking far to see where the following year's growth and beyond will be coming from. With best wishes to all for a safe, healthy and prosperous New Year, as ever, Monty.
bocase: There is psychology at work in the markets as well as the obvious fundamental analysis of whether a share is expensive or good value and indeed the analysis of the charts and the message they are sending. There is a very strong argument that many investors will sell a share such as IQE when it gets back to their breakeven point, having been down for so long. On the other side of the coin, IQE has just made a 12 month high and that means that unless you invested more than a year ago (as many of us did of course) then all those new investors are in profit and are not so likely to be sellers. The jury is indeed out. The signals are very good but we all await the proof of the pudding.
montanaro: Well, this is a really significant day and definitely deserves comment, all my opinion of course, as many of the regulars on the BB have already done, although none so far have necessarily looked at the longer opportunities. Firstly I've enjoyed reading a load of differing views about the announcement, many are absolutely prescient, but really IQE's price has never been a valuation based on 2020 earnings, more it's the potential for the next 2-3 years that will attract new investors or existing holders like Katie Potts to make encouraging comments. The trading statement, it's fine, it's encouraging, it was never going to set the world alight in view of the very disappointing guidance issued in September, but really this isn't the big news. I have met Katie several times both when she was originally one of the City's leading technology analysts at SG Warburg, and since she launched Herald, which must be at least 20 years ago. She's exceptionally bright, extremely reserved, and her investment style it seems to me is never to back anything too much but to have many irons in the fire. I know she has been a long term follower of IQE whether or not she's been invested. But as she will probably typically hold 150 shareholdings, it's a long time since I looked at the portfolio, I don't read much in her owning shares in one of supposedly the leading tech businesses in the UK. The bigger news seems to me to be Drew Nelson's timely decision to step aside. I very much suspect that this has been planned as part of Phil Smith's accession to the Chairmanship in 2019. It takes away one of the sizeable risks I have previously identified, Drew being in his late 60's I believe, of what happens if he doesn't wake up one morning. The good doctor moving aside opens up further questions. For the first time we get to see Phil Smith's name on an RNS I believe (perhaps he made a comment when appointed), ie making a statement, will he get more involved as a (semi) executive chairman?? I have always argued that the reason people should be optimistic about IQE is the presence of Phil Smith, remember he has a stellar career behind him as CEO and Chairman of Cisco Systems UK. Surely with his experience and contacts, his very presence, there will be a plethora of extremely high class candidates. The news of Carol Chesney, who came in on the back of his assuming the chair, becoming Senior Independent Director again must be good news, anyone who has read my posts on her, knowing her involvement with Renishaw, her almost certain knowledge of patents and patent protection, I feel very comfortable with that. I doubt by implication that Tim Pullen will be a candidate but I wouldn't rule him out, but it's been obvious since he came on board that he has assumed a greater role in the investor relations work, I've not seen Drew Nelson interviewed for a couple of years albeit frankly in PR terms he will have been leading the relationships with the investor community. I think what this points towards is perhaps a wider strategic metamorphosis in the offing. I could well see IQE appointing a high end CEO with industry experience and reputation, energy, drive etc, of course these are basic pre-requisites, but the bigger picture is what he is then tasked to do. Unlike vertically integrated competitor II-VI and arguably AMS, we are very much outsource and involved in a specific process. It is very possible now that a new CEO will look for earnings enhancing acquisitions. Potentially this could help fill the available space at the Newport mega-foundry, let alone we have hopefully scope for expansion in the US, in Taiwan, in Singapore. Potentially there will be companies where we can align ourselves into parallel processes. Who knows?? But first we have seemingly gone through a very significant investment and plant re-organisation phase 2018/2019, having raised new debt and equity we have been paying down a lot of the debt and re-building our board, and with it our investor credibility in the wake of the short selling attacks, etc. The FD has overseen a complete financial deck clearing during his brief time at IQE. It seems to me that almost everything of doubt has either been written down eg cREO, or consolidated, eg US locations, or acquired eg Singapore for $1, the Taiwan minority. A total deck clearing to create the cleanest of platforms going forward. All that is past tense. When I first invested in August 2016, essentially no-one of that BoD remains with the departure of Dr Drew. So as we generate cash and re-build our balance sheet strength and as we once again build our valuation, I really think IQE could be set for a new strategic direction. This may be as a consolidator of small companies that have excellent technologies but lack critical mass or development capital. Time will tell, that will be for the Board to decide. But it could well be a very interesting year or three ahead. I see the consolidation phase as now officially OVER. I believe we are about to enter an expansion phase. For me, while we are absolutely among the unrivalled leaders in epitaxy and some of the narrower (but essential) processes in compound semi-conductors at a time when suddenly you really can see enormous opportunities for growth in technology markets as a whole happening imminently, this is a great time to consider whether we stay a narrowly focused service provider or whether the BoD can get this company to grow a lot faster by acquiring other companies in a well judged manner at the same time helping to maximise our own available resources. It's all about capacity utilisation as many have posted. This is the advantage of having listed paper. I think we will now see the next stage of the Phil Smith masterplan. I am convinced we will bring in someone who is absolutely ideally suited to take IQE to the next level. I believe that announcement will be very soon, this is not something that has just suddenly happened, it has been in process for a fair few months most likely. I really welcome this news. All my opinion of course, but further reason to anticipate better and more interesting times on the horizon for LTH's. As ever, GLA! Best wishes, Monty.
tomduck: The reviews for the 12 Pro have been good but most saying it’s not worth the upgrade over the 11 Pro, that the cheaper ones are the sweet spot now they all have the same OLED small bezel screens, and last years 11 Pro camera. The Pro Max may well be the best bet as it has several key features the std Pro doesn’t but many people don’t like the bigger phone. As for 5G, many people reading the reviews will start to realise it will be a few years before they need a 5G phone. At the end of the day the phones will sell broadly what the analysts predict, but IQEs fortunes re a major rerated share price will hang on new customers or completely new Apple products over and above the phones n pads imo. If/when IQE announce some new tools being purchased for those empty bays in Wales we will have a real world indicator of this. I think investors have been talking too much about major earnings beats over £165m as it only adds to the potential for disappointment come March if IQE only just beat. The market will say investors expected £185m and then you will see nothing much happen or another fall. It can become something of a self fulfilling prophecy. Let us hope this time that is not the case, would be lovely for us all to believe in IQE again being a source of increasing wealth and persuading new investors to come aboard for the ride like back in 2016.
sweenoid: Thought I would post some thoughts about the timetable of important events for IQE investors over the immediate future and a few comments 29th June AGM day, strange that we won’t be there. HOWEVER IQE have generously asked investors for questions and have promised that the answers will be published sometime after 11am. There will be NO formal presentation or slides on the day.I have already sent my questions in- quite a few ;-) , to give them time to prepare ( they might need it). My 1st question is obvious, and I expect it to be answered in the official RNS of the day, “has anything material changed, since the trading update” I expect a short two letter answer. My other questions are for details I want clarified and answered and represent a broad spectrum of topics that I believe will be of interest to all investors. I look forward to the answers, although due to NDA agreements , some will no doubt be heavily censored. The Peel Hunt TMT Conference scheduled for Tuesday 30th has been cancelled due to Covid-19:-( The next ‘signals’; will as usual come from our customers, the last set of earnings and outlooks from literally ALL our customers was universally positive, this coupled with IQE’s repeated reassuring releases saying all was well, despite Covid-19,persuaded me to buy many hundreds of thousands of extra shares and I fully expect that the next set is equally as positive . I keep repeating if our customers who are using more compound semiconductor content to fulfil 5G, 3D sensing, world facing applications and data centre , military and infrastructure requirements, are doing will IQE, and YES I have included a question on margins and pricing power in my list. All the earnings releases will cover 3 months April, May and June and will contain some forward looking statements. We kick off with AMS on 28/ 7/20, then it will get really busy in the 1st -2nd weeks of July, with releases from Skyworks, Lumentum, Qorvo, Raytheon , Macom and of course the indirect customer Apple. Most important in my opinion are Lumentum and Skyworks although if Macom continue their progress that’s a huge tick up for me too. Obviously Covid-19 comments will be a large player in each of the reports. The conference call transcripts will be especially interesting. July-September - the key for me is the global situation re Covid-19 and whether there has been a major resurgence in any areas that have bought it under control, as this will reflect the varying economies. No one can predict that at present. However signs are good at the moment with countries opening up for business... but we shall see, the USA of all countries is the elephant in the room, paradoxically China is and will be contributing to our revenues big time.Worldwide investors have underestimated how big the 5G build is going to be and China , Korea and Japan , all countries that have virtually eliminated Covid-19 will lead the way. September 2020- sometime, probably the last week, IQE earnings for H1 2020- we already know this will be good, I am hoping for £89 million in revenues, £5 million off debt and a small profit. The KEY of course will be the mini ‘trading statement’ that will come with the outlook, IF they felt it possible at that time to give visibility on FY 2020 earnings that would be a massive boost....and WOULD be reflected in the share price Whatever is happening, nothing will stop the advance of 5G the IOT and Wi-Fi 6 and the infrastructure build that goes with it , including that driven by hyperscale data centre providers( Apple, Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Microsoft) and my position remains that iPhone 12 with its significantly higher IQE content WILL be a massive seller ...literally no matter what, and drive a new wave of smartphone innovation, so all in all I am very bullish The weather looks great this week, and it’s a cracking morning,so lots of outdoor living , walks, and a mountain of reading to enjoy, so See you in a week ( unless drama intervenes) S
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