Ip Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 06/2/2024 16:07

Good job for them too, able to ignore the inconvenience of having pi's and carry on drawing a salary without a return to the owners of the company. Must be like working in the Civil Service.

[brucie5] 06/2/2024 15:57

Bamboo, you're too kind. I wish I was equally observant as I'm sure I saw from Stocko that there was a (small) dividend of 2.3% - moral of the story, never trust it on dividends! (Now showing .02%, which is good as nothing.) I agree that they should probably now be paying shareholders to wait given the cash in the bank, their willingness to spenf some of it by buying up shares (why not let shareholders do that if they want to?!) and in the almost total absence any of positive movement.
Ah well - like I said, good job it's patient money.

[bamboo2] 04/2/2024 20:19

p1nk, thanks!

I bet that Brucie could say the same thing better!
He's very erudite.

I'd be happy to send something along these lines to IR and see what kind of response we get. [Reply might have to be a pm if co labels it as addressee only]

[p1nkfish] 04/2/2024 18:18

bb2, I agree, well said.

Brucie - each to their own and I am certain this will recover (irrespective of management that could go home now) so if you have long enough then great. For some it may be best to look at the IPO portfolio and buy into publicly listed holdings as each holding shows signs of recovery and some momentum. It might be a quicker way to compound capital and not carry the weight of IPO management.

[apple53] 04/2/2024 16:07

Thanks Bamboo - so maybe 107-113p.

Interesting names, CousinIT, and not on my radar. Monster discount for SONG and I don't know anything about the spike in NAV. One wonders if, had they been able to smooth it at 10% p.a. rather than spiking and disappointing, they would not suffer such a large discount. And I suppose the bears think the trend is now downwards for a while, or that the NAV is well behind events.

CORD much steadier in NAV terms and not as big a discount, so presumably one could blame half of it on the general widening of discounts across the investment trust sector, but in their case not from 15 to 35 but from a premium post Covid.

I will try to find both on advfn.

[brucie5] 04/2/2024 15:18

p1nkfish3 Feb '24 - 18:36 - 2880 of 2884
0 0 0
Brucie, IPO will come good but the age old questions apply.
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I've bought in on behalf of a charity fund that I help run; almost entirely for income generation via ITS and large financials/insurers. But I thought I'd stick in a holding of IPO, since at current levels it has an insane discount, large cash pile and a dividend that isn't too far from what the charity would get in a bank. Folio designed pretty much never to be traded; so we have a lot of patience. I'm hoping on the way for some special dividends to sweeten the shareholders' pill? What do you reckon?

[bamboo2] 04/2/2024 10:40

One of the best hopes for 2024 is the possible listing of Hinge Health [1.8%]

It was valued at £51.4m in the June 2023 valuation.

[bamboo2] 04/2/2024 10:27

IPO's ONT shares at 156.8p each are currently worth approx £128,673,441.79

NAV of ONT per IPO share.
128,673,441/1,035,037,800 [IPO shares] = 12.43p

[cousinit] 04/2/2024 10:23

Apple - I've now added CORD to the cheap bucket of trusts I monitor which has a large overlap with yours. I just don't now touch Tetragon as feel that the route to discount closing is not as clear as others. It obviously could but I don't see signs of shareholder friendliness to the same degree as elsewhere. The tenders may eventually mop up loose stock. SONG also looks ripe for corporate activity.

[apple53] 03/2/2024 21:13

Thanks for the updates and analysis from various posters here.
Can anyone easily estimate the NAV for ONT's share price about now? ie down a quarter from the number included in the 117p (though thankfully up 10% from the recent low)?

I wasn't following closely - I have a meaningful position but it's so depressing I don't like to focus..........
...but at IPO's low surely half the market cap was cash and with the NAV (using the 117p rather than previous higher ones, and bearing in mind ONT hadn't had its recent collapse), it was actually trading at a 75% discount. There are some heavily discounted investment trusts around but that was just crazy and I should have doubled up (I bought a lot of SSIT at a similar level). Now maybe 55-57% discount? Not sooo tempting, as there's just so much to buy at the moment - HVPE was almost 45% 2 days ago; Tetragon; OCI after a pullback at a lower discount but for serious quality/track record; ICGT/PIN/APEO; Wendel (not sure about growth, plus depends on bureau veritas); ONT; STB; OSB whenever it head back down towards £4; Shipping companies; a string of cheap banks.

[p1nkfish] 03/2/2024 18:36

Brucie, IPO will come good but the age old questions apply.

How long are you prepared to wait and what could you be doing with the money to get a return in the meantime. The opportunity cost is high unless your timing is good.

I do believe the weekly candle low of 22/10/23 was most probably the low but we might be consolidating for quite a few more months.

The good news is there is a MACD cross on the monthlies that precedes more positive outcomes but it's insipid and is a very early indicator, nothing imminent.

Extreme patience needed. Still have a target >= 150p but the longer it takes the lower the CAGR of capital.

Really like the idea of IPO but a ball ache.

Dyor etc.

[brucie5] 03/2/2024 11:24

Oakbloke has updated.

Conclusion
Studying each major life science holding there are five studies which themselves could prove transformational inflection points for valuation. Beyond this, the skills, capabilities and IP these companies hold appear to be highly attractive for big pharma.

Some do show limited runways for cash (albeit I’m exprapolating from last Companies House returns for late 2022 so my estimates are subject to cost cutting or expansion).

There appears to be potential for at least 5 exciting inflection events during 2024 - just in life sciences. For further reading last year’s Edison Deep Dive into IP Group is interesting too, but I hope this article provides some additional insight too.

Trading at an estimated 54% discount ex-cash, post period (ONT has fallen around 25% in January), there appears to be a harsh discount to IPO.

[bamboo2] 30/1/2024 17:39

IP Group plc (LSE: IPO) ("IP Group" or "the Group"), which invests in breakthrough science and innovation companies with the potential to create a better future for all, issues an unaudited year-end update ahead of its results for the 12 months to 31 December 2023 now that the Group's usual year-end process is sufficiently progressed.

The market environment for early-stage investing remained challenging in 2023 and, against this backdrop, we saw some further softening of valuations in the final quarter of 2023. As a result, the Directors currently expect NAV per share to be between 111 pence and 117 pence at the year end.

Within this context, many of the Group's leading portfolio companies made strong progress, with some significant inflection points expected in 2024.

The Group continues to appropriately manage its investment levels and remains in a strong financial position with gross cash and deposits of £227m at year-end.

IP Group expects to announce its 2023 results on Wednesday 13 March 2024 following the completion of our usual year end valuations process.



Notes

- The share price of Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc was approximately 208 pence at the end of 2023.

[eeza] 30/1/2024 17:23

RNS

2023 4Q TU.


Snuck out at 1715 at no-one-is-watching-o'clock.

[brucie5] 12/1/2024 14:52

I notice a poster called Bluesky Ventura on Stocko including this on his selection for H1 2024. Perhaps he's a poster here? His record seems to be excellent, though I'm just taking his word for it. It appears to be a mechanical approach with 10 stocks chosen twice yearly, not unlike the SNAPS.
And of course Oakbloke provides bullish coverage.

Who am I to argue?

[p1nkfish] 12/1/2024 10:04

Agreed but very, very annoying.

[brucie5] 12/1/2024 09:44

Quite. But I believe the chart may be reversing and suggests almost exact symmetry with the low/recovery of 2020.

[wilmer100] 27/12/2023 20:52

OXA (Oxbotica) on the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures. Episode 3

[p1nkfish] 22/12/2023 08:27

Yes, IPO need to wise up and introduce competition for their $.
Cost of research should be falling given how productive the tools to generate it are becoming.

[palisz] 22/12/2023 08:12

LOL.... seems like the mngt. are reading our posts!!
So for NAV this needs v careful consideration. Hopefully they are getting decent advice. So, talking of advice, another big issue I raised was research.
Edison charge 60k for a basic report. (Just as an example of cost for paid research)
But BoA Merrill, who get most of the advisory work, fundings, ipo's etc...don't do any! I'd suggest they are asked if they would like to, or the company (IPO) considers a beauty parade, looking for a advisor for the next two years. This is a valuable account with regular Inv Banking fees... Merrill should produce research...or get ready for a face off against other banks!!

[bamboo2] 21/12/2023 13:48

Management here like to claim the moral high ground with regard to the companies ESG credentials. Yet when it comes to an equitable balance between shareholder's interests [share price] and management incentives [nav], the fairness that is the essence of any good ESG policy is completely absent.

Shareholders, as owners of the capital of company, have as much right to be treated with respect, as any other group.

The CEO and CFO have a duty of care towards us, and they are currently failing in this regard.