Ip Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 13/4/2022 09:14

ghh, thanks.

Re "...volatility in equity markets globally including a reduction in risk appetite, particularly for fast-growth companies. This has also exacerbated reductions in appetite for, and valuations of, companies in specific sectors that had commenced during 2021, a notable example being biotech. The Group's recent share price performance has been disappointing. Oxford Nanopore's share price has fallen 41% since the start of the year, translating to a GBP233m fall in value for IP Group, while the value of our quoted portfolio has fallen 40% in total..."

I think Greg Smith is possibly saying that since the start of year 2021 listed p/f have fallen 40%. [As separate to the share price decline in ONT]

If you look at the charts of the listed constituents in post 1 of this thread, that is evident.

Many of these co's were floated alongside Woodford before they were viable enough to thrive and survive. There were loads of them at one point!

The Parkwalk takeover marked a change in approach. As a result it is now quite rare to see IPGroup float a business. With the exception of ONT, exits are normally undertaken through takeovers. IPGroup have a large number of partners with whom they share capital raising and risk, often taking some dilution instead of deploying extra capital.

[ghhghh] 13/4/2022 07:58

bamboo

Yes it is Liz away.

I agree that 34% discount at 94p implies a mid March NAV of 143p.

So how does this square with the stated 40% fall in value for the listed portfolio?

We know that listed + unlisted = £1.5bn.

And the vast bulk of this is listed.

It's not unreasonable to apply the blanket 40% across the whole £1.5bn although IPO won't have done this. Hence my 40%/£600m may be excessive but not by that much?

How can 143p reflect a circa £600m drop in value of the portfolio?

[bamboo2] 13/4/2022 07:44

ghh, Not sure I have the original calcs in post 2260 correct.

If share price was 94p after a discount of 34%, without the discount the share price would have to be around 143p.
143x34%=48.62

143 - 48.62 = 94.38

Using 143p as the share price in mid March 2022, minus 4p [ONT] means a NAV approx 139p/share

This is not far from my own calcs in the header from last weekend. [Worked using an alternate method]

[bamboo2] 12/4/2022 20:09

ghh, is it Liz Adams or you away until 19th?
If it's Liz, email to IR, and it will get seen before 19th.
Let us know if you get a reply.

Re "at the most recent price of 94 pence the discount to NAV based on quoted portfolio values at 14 March has widened to 34%"

At the time of the update, the discount of 34% would have equalled about 32p, therefore they are suggesting a share price at approx [94+32=] 126 would represent the NAV of the co, with neither a discount or premium.

Removing another 4p for the fall in the share price of ONT to 350 means current fully valued share price of IPGroup around 122p

This coincides with my bearish NAV valuation. [120]
=========================================
...Edit, I think I have worked this out incorrectly!

See below.

[robertspc1] 12/4/2022 15:24

Bosch takes out Five.ai the autonomous driving software competitor to Oxbotica. No values given but I think something similar will happen in due course with Oxbotica. A hidden unicorn inside IPO imho

[ghhghh] 12/4/2022 14:12

Thanks have done so but away until the 19th

[bamboo2] 12/4/2022 13:55

ghh, yes it is confusing. I have to go out now, but will look at this when I get back.

Maybe it's worth an email to IR asking for clarification? They are really quick at answering questions, and don't have a problem with PI's. The address I use is...
[e-mail]

btw my low total nav of 120 does include the cash.

[ghhghh] 12/4/2022 13:33

There has been significant short-term uncertainty with rising inflation and interest rates as well as geopolitical concerns, greatly exacerbated by Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, which is causing volatility in equity markets globally including a reduction in risk appetite, particularly for fast-growth companies. This has also exacerbated reductions in appetite for, and valuations of, companies in specific sectors that had commenced during 2021, a notable example being biotech. The Group's recent share price performance has been disappointing. Oxford Nanopore's share price has fallen 41% since the start of the year, translating to a GBP233m fall in value for IP Group, while the value of our quoted portfolio has fallen 40% in total. Increased protectionism and nationalism around funding, owning, and developing 'innovations of strategic importance' also remains a theme and there is evidence of increased competition for investment opportunities and talent. Having acted to ensure that the Group has a strong level of liquidity, IP Group remains well placed to support its portfolio companies through this period of uncertainty and is confident that appetite for growth companies will return.

[bamboo2] 12/4/2022 13:20

Hi ghh, could you point me to where in the results it states a 40% portfolio reduction since Dec 31 2021? Just can't find it right now.

Many of the existing listed constituents have been flatlining for some time [Some were floated before being fully viable standalone businesses imo]. I realise ONT has come back to it's price prior to flotation [350], but even with my most bearish take on the figs, I can't get my NAV figure below approx 120

[ghhghh] 12/4/2022 11:36

Thanks bamboo

Total NAV was £1.738bn at YE of which the Portfolio was £1.5bn.

Hence factoring in the 40% Portfolio reduction at mid March reduces the £1.5bn by £0.6bn to £0.9bn.

Taking the £0.6bn off the £1.738bn reduces NAV from 167p to 109p. Oxford has since fallen even further so NAV now just over 100p?

Above a bit simplistic and assumes unlisted have also fallen 40%.

[bamboo2] 12/4/2022 10:51

ghh, afaik, NAV calcs normally include the cash at hand.

The recent figures in the header are conservative, however ONT has lost 10% from the original 400p used, so that needs to be taken into account.

ONT at 350 reduces IPGroup rolling NAV by approx 4p to 141
[assuming I have not got my decimal point in the wrong place, which can happen!]]

[ghhghh] 12/4/2022 09:38

So why the discount to NAV? Jefferies say marking to market for the listed portfolio was 135p but I assume this includes the cash and at year end? IPO say listed portfolio had dropped 40% at date of finals.

Oxford has since dropped another 10%. Representing a third of NAV it's unsurprising that IPO tracks this.

The cash is attractive but I assume the markets are concerned that this is a pittance if a tech rout dries up fresh capital.

So current total NAV is just over 100p? Hence discount reasonable when compared to other tech investment companies?

[keyno] 12/4/2022 00:28

It was short but sweet.

"Oxford-based start-up First Light Fusion has succesfully combined atomic nuclei, in what the UK regulator described as an important step in efforts to generate electricity from the reaction that powers the sun."

FT Weekend 9/4/22

[bamboo2] 11/4/2022 17:14

Keyno, please post the article if you have the time.
=======================================================

GripAble raises $11m in Series A funding to deliver data-driven neuro and musculoskeletal rehab
The new funding, led by IP Group, with equal investment from Parkwalk Advisors, will enable GripAble to expand its industry-leading data platform and therapy services, with a particular focus on growing markets in Europe and the US.
The successful fund-raise follows a period of significant activity, including a recent partnership with leading medical equipment distributor, Medline. GripAble is also part of a pioneering group of health tech companies led by the ABHI, with recent trade missions to the US accelerating traction with both national payers and providers.

GripAble’s mission is to make outcome-driven care scalable and accessible to all, delivering high volumes of efficient and personalised therapy from hospital to home. Through a digitally led care pathway, combining bespoke hand-held sensors, engaging, gamified app software, and hybrid tele-therapy services, GripAble will allow more patients to access gold standard physical and cognitive rehab for longer, driving improved outcomes whilst reducing costs.

With more than 8,000 individuals having already used the platform, GripAble has established itself as a leading technology in the remote-rehab space in the UK, recording 100,000 activity sessions and 27 million movement repetitions across its users.

With initial evidence highlighting an eight-fold increase in patient training through its platform compared to current standard care, and following rapid provider adoption in the UK, GripAble has attracted and signed partnerships with both multinational pharmaceutical companies and distributors.

Dr Paul Rinne, GripAble co-founder and CEO, explains:
“Patients with physical and cognitive impairments require guided therapy to improve their quality of life. Simply put, the more rehab they do and the more they adhere to professional guidance, the greater their chances of having better outcomes, with a wealth of evidence backing this up,”

“However, due to resource costs and poor logistics, current health systems cannot deliver the amount of therapy needed, with significant backlogs, and few patients receiving anywhere near what they require to get better. This is a common problem faced by hundreds of millions of patients around the world, with inefficient care pathways not only costing health systems hundreds of billions of dollars every year, but costing people a chance to live their lives to their full potential.”

Paul adds: “The evidence is clear. The new funding will accelerate GripAble’s journey to delivering end-to-end patient care and connecting millions to their own personal home-based clinic. We welcome IP Group and Parkwalk, who have a wealth of insight and experience that will support us in growing our industry-leading platform in the US market and enable us to expand our clinical and commercial evidence base.”

Dr Sam Williams, Managing Partner of Life Sciences at IP Group plc, said:
“IP Group has had great success in the digital therapy market with our investment in Hinge Health and we see similar potential in GripAble. We’re therefore delighted to be joining the company’s journey as it develops into a fully-fledged commercial organisation.”

Martin Glen, Investment Director at Parkwalk Advisors, said:
“Parkwalk is excited to be backing this breakthrough digital rehabilitation technology as it grows and enters new markets. In particular, we are hopeful that GripAble can reproduce its strong initial success in the UK in the significantly larger US market. This would enable many more patients to access the sustained level of rehabilitation therapy that they require for a positive outcome post-injury. GripAble was an early investment in the Parkwalk-managed Imperial College Innovation Fund and is the second such company to receive further investment from Parkwalk. It is a reflection of the strength of Imperial College’s research in STEM subjects that this breakthrough technology emerged from its labs.”

[keyno] 11/4/2022 16:38

First Light had a mention in Weekend FT. Glad to see somebody somewhere is working on some publicity, though to very little positive effect on the share price here .........

[p1nkfish] 10/4/2022 18:37

Some future fech American VC could take this out for a song.
Might be better custodians than the current management but PIs get screwed along the way.

[pierre oreilly] 10/4/2022 15:26

Could someone check this because I'm not an accountant.

2021 Payments into long term incentive plan cost £17m (for a handful of people?)

Cost of 2021 final divi £10m (for thousands of shareholders?).

I don't like getting ripped off.

[p1nkfish] 10/4/2022 14:06

Take it private.

[bamboo2] 10/4/2022 13:38

Pierre, I think we all share your frustration at the discount.
The 145p I have posted above is very conservative. [I am aware the tech sector valuations have been under pressure.]

It is likely we will also get an interim dividend a bit later in the year.

Re the volume over recent months, I had wondered if the share price has been manipulated down for some reason. Perhaps a takeover?

[pierre oreilly] 10/4/2022 13:19

Oh the irony is immense and would be extremely funny if i didn't hold lots of these (my second to worst performing invetment) ....

Narrowing this discount remains a key focus of the Board as it monitors application of the Capital Allocation policy.

Final dividend

0.8p (last year 1.0p).

(i know it's an increase of 20% on the total last year btw, before anyone states the obvious, i just found the above extremely pertain).

They must exist in the 20th century. The directors remind me of harry enfield shaking loads a money at shareholders.

The discount to nav would evaporate quickly if this lot focusssed on shareholder returns (rather than simply saying they do) rather than their own. Wtf does everyone else think buybacks don't increase the price, and no institutions want more exposure?

To the two regular traders in this - the price responds to the scale of institutional buys, not pi level buys. Until institutions change their view (and that is oh so easy for the board to change), this won't sustain a substantive rise imv. The company is stuffed full of chash, and the directors should immediately arrange a special cash divi for shareholders which would, imv, drive the price higher toweards the nav due to institutional demand.

[bamboo2] 10/4/2022 10:52

Header updated. Please advise any errors in calculations.
Current NAV per share reduced from approx 153.6p to approx 145p per share to reflect recent changes in market prices of listed constituents.

Current discount is around 55p per share.
For info, the elevated volumes since the start of September 2021 have seen around 440m shares traded.
On this basis I am quite certain we should be getting more TR-1 notifications than we have witnessed during this time. I am assured there is nothing the company can do.

[bamboo2] 10/4/2022 09:37

Venture capital will replace stock markets as the source of funding for many life sciences companies in the months ahead, according to experts at The Times and Sunday Times Life Sciences Summit in Aberdeen.

Figures from the BioIndustry Association (BIA) show that British life sciences companies raised a record £4.5 billion last year from public markets and private investors, up 60 per cent on the 2020 total.




[Note, if link doesn't work, you can access using the link on Clive Browns twitter feed]

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2022 22:38

This is where IP Group companies could help. Put UK in place of US in the quote below. I would even suggest that if we don't we won't be able to afford much of an improved standard of living as a nation.

Sadly, I'm not at all convinced any UK politician has much of a clue or the inclination to fully exploit what we are capable of.



"To succeed, we must put an increasing value on new ideas and new research in these fields. The U.S. does much of this very well in its VC business and its great research universities (to the envy of the world). The U.S. may have slipped in some commercial areas, but in these it really is exceptional, the biggest and the best. But the collective scale is still far too small, for corporate and government R&D has for several decades shrunk rather than grown. Our best shot for long-term sustainability – even prosperity – is for government, business, and individuals to all get behind these exceptional strengths of the U.S.: research, innovation, commercialization, and our society's unusual willingness to take risk (also an American characteristic widely admired). Our collective survival as a reasonably stable and livable global society may depend on U.S. leadership in all these areas. As we enter the new age of environmental damage, scarcity, and physical limits, we will need all the innovation and ingenuity we can muster."

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2022 16:49

Would vote to take IP Group private if that was a resolution at next AGM.
At least save the listing costs.
I can't see a good reason to be listed when they already have so much cash.
Not like they need to raise any anytime soon???

The lack of UK Tech listings has been a complaint in the recent past but when we do have the likes of IP Group it's hardly valued at all at its real worth.